Front Burner (CBC): U.S.–Iran talks: Who’s got the upper hand?

Release Date: April 10, 2026
Host: Jayme Poisson
Guest: Vali Nasser, Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University

Episode Overview

In this episode of Front Burner, host Jayme Poisson explores the high-stakes negotiations between the United States and Iran taking place in Islamabad, Pakistan. As the two countries approach a possible transition from fragile ceasefire to peace, discussion centers on who holds the strategic advantage, the impact of the war on Iran, the significance of recent U.S.-Israeli strikes, and how major players—including Trump and Iran's new leadership—are shaping the process.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Context and Stakes for the Islamabad Talks

• Participants: U.S. represented by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner; Iran by Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Kalibaf.
• Goals: Move from ceasefire to substantive peace; address nuclear enrichment, sanctions, and passage through Strait of Hormuz.
• Notable Quote:

  “I think the level of participation in these talks is the highest that the Trump administration and Iran have had before. …The core issues that they have to deal with is the nuclear issue…and then under what terms would there be cessation of hostilities between the two sides.”
  — Vali Nasser (02:27)

2. Who Has the Upper Hand?

• Vali Nasser’s Assessment: Iran has a slight strategic advantage.
  • Trump’s original strategy faltered; war did not topple the regime or incite rebellion.
  • Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz caused “the worst energy shock in the history of the oil market,” disrupting 20% of global oil supply.
  • U.S. brought to the table not out of strength, but necessity.
• Notable Quote:

  “The only reason that President Trump is entertaining these talks is because of the Strait of Hormuz. He knows the war produced a strategic advantage for Iran that it didn’t have before the war.”
  — Vali Nasser (04:40)

3. Maximalist Demands on Both Sides

• Iran’s Proposals: Outlined in a 10-point plan—recognition of nuclear enrichment, lifting all sanctions, payments for ships through Hormuz.
• U.S. Counterpoints: A 15-point proposal described as a non-starter for Iran (“essentially a surrender demand”).
• Room for Negotiation: Both are opening with maximum demands but signaling willingness to bargain.
• Notable Quote:

  “Now, the very fact that the President signaled to the Pakistanis...that he’s willing to go to Islamabad with his own 15 point plan, but also accept Iran’s 10 point plan as a starting point. It already is a massive concession to Iran.”
  — Vali Nasser (07:46)

4. Trump’s Miscalculations About Iran

• Overestimated: Iranian popular opposition to the regime and the likelihood of regime collapse under pressure.
• Underestimated: National resilience, strategic planning, and Iran’s ability to turn U.S. escalation into its own leverage.
• Effect of Extreme Rhetoric: Trump’s genocidal threats united even regime opponents in patriotic defense.
• Notable Moment:

  “When he said that I’m going to send Iran back to the Stone Age, that’s exactly what the Iranians understood. …This became essentially a form of popular level defiance of a superpower…”
  — Vali Nasser (10:40–11:30)

5. Destruction of Iran’s Cultural and Civilian Infrastructure

• World Heritage Impact: Several UNESCO sites and cultural institutions damaged or directly bombed.

  • Golestan Palace, Chel Sotoun Palace, Falak-ol-Aflak Castle, Pastor Institute (medical research), Sharif University of Technology (“Iran’s MIT”).
  • Even a synagogue bombed, leading to widespread outrage.

• Legal & Symbolic Weight: Targeting of cultural sites is prohibited by international law and has rallied domestic sentiment.

• Notable Quote:

  “Hitting them in this case actually directly really communicated that this is a war on the country. It’s not war on the regime, it’s not about the nuclear issue. This is really going after some fundamental things.”
  — Vali Nasser (17:52)

• Result: Damage estimated at several billion dollars. Attacks generated further resolve among Iran’s people and leaders to obtain concrete gains from negotiations.

6. The Lebanon Factor

• Ceasefire Dispute: Iran sees ceasefire as including Lebanon; U.S./Israel disagree.

• Test of American Commitment: Iran views U.S. control over Israel’s actions as a bellwether for any future deal’s credibility.

• Notable Quote:

  “The second issue is that Lebanon is a test of whether President Trump can control Israel...That’s going to be key in any deal that Iran makes with the United States.”
  — Vali Nasser (22:02)

• Implication: “If the U.S. cannot basically control the actions of its partner, then that changes the entire dynamic of the conversation.”

7. War of Endurance: Can Iran Sustain the Fight?

• Limits on Stamina: Iran cannot sustain this war indefinitely, but its endurance may outlast U.S. economic pain thresholds.
• Global Stakes: Continued closure of Hormuz risks deepening worldwide recession and inflation.
• Notable Quote:

  “Already, this war…is not about the munitions. This war has become about endurance. And ultimately, just because the United States is bigger and more powerful, it doesn’t mean that necessarily it has greater endurance than a weaker party here.”
  — Vali Nasser (24:20)

8. The State of Iran’s Leadership

• Post-Khamenei Shift: Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei now leads after his father’s assassination.
• Wartime Cabinet: Current regime prioritizes military strategy. Domestic stability and political reforms remain uncertain.
• Challenges Ahead: Economy is shattered, regime widely disliked, and trauma from suppression of 2026 protests remains raw.
• Notable Quote:

  “So all that we are right now seeing is wartime management of a military campaign. …The political fate of the Islamic Republic is far from certain going forward.”
  — Vali Nasser (26:49)

Memorable Quotes — Quick Reference

• “Iran has a slight strategic advantage…” (03:25, Nasser)
• “This is already the worst energy shock in the history of the oil market.” (03:49, Nasser)
• “This war will not end with Iran being in the same box that it was before the war, under maximum pressure…” (06:16, Nasser)
• “You begin to ask yourself what is basically in the mind of those who are conducting the bombing.” (18:52, Nasser)
• “If the U.S. cannot basically control the actions of its partner, then that changes the entire dynamic of the conversation.” (22:31, Nasser)
• “This war has become about endurance…” (24:20, Nasser)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening context and analysis of Islamabad talks: 00:35–03:18
• Who has the upper hand? Iran’s tactical strengths: 03:18–05:41
• Demands and negotiation positions: 05:41–08:13
• Trump’s miscalculations and effects of rhetoric: 08:13–14:25
• Cultural and civilian destruction in Iran: 15:17–20:06
• Lebanon’s significance in negotiations: 20:06–23:20
• Iranian endurance and war sustainability: 23:20–25:24
• Iranian leadership and domestic challenges: 25:24–27:51

Conclusion

In this episode, Vali Nasser makes clear that the current negotiations were shaped not by overwhelming U.S. military advantage, but by Iran’s calculated endurance and ability to leverage global economic vulnerabilities. While the outcome remains uncertain, Iran’s resilience, the scale of national trauma, and shifting region-wide allegiances suggest that any peace will be hard-won—with deep consequences for both Iranians and the international order.