Front Burner – U.S. Politics! Iran Crisis, ICE, Trump vs. the Fed

Date: January 15, 2026
Host: Jamie Poisson (CBC)
Guest: Ested Herndon (Editorial Director, Vox; former host, NYT’s The Run-Up)

Episode Overview

This episode explores a turbulent week in U.S. politics, focusing on three major stories: the Trump administration’s response to the Iran crisis, the intensifying ICE enforcement and domestic resistance, and unprecedented threats to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Jamie Poisson and Ested Herndon break down the intersecting issues of executive authority, political polarization, and institutional norms, providing an accessible, nuanced picture of how these policy crises are unfolding — and what they reveal about the current American political climate.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Response to the Iran Crisis

(Timestamps: 01:35–13:07)

• Escalating Crisis:
  Jamie sets the context with news of Iran’s internet blackout, thousands killed in protests, and a rapidly deteriorating situation.

• Trump’s Military Options:
  Ested explains that reporting (from his former New York Times colleagues) indicates the Pentagon is considering a “wide range of strike options,” even beyond Trump’s public statements. There’s talk of cyber attacks or strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, echoing the interventionist ambitions of the administration’s first term advisors like John Bolton.

  “He’s kind of made his typical brushes at bluster… but the specific options are more broad than he’s saying publicly.” (Ested Herndon, 02:36)

• Internal White House Dynamics:
  The show examines shifts inside Trump’s inner circle—away from the "America First" isolationism (championed by Steve Bannon and JD Vance) and toward a more “expansive version” of presidential power in foreign policy (Marco Rubio, Stephen Miller, current envoy Steve Wyckoff).

  “We’re seeing even the Iran response filter through that lens [of power projection].” (Ested, 05:06)

• Motivations and Strategies:
  Ested is skeptical the administration has a long-term strategy for regime change, seeing more focus on projecting power and negotiating leverage by demonstrating strength, rather than a plan for what comes next.

  “I don’t really feel like that’s how this White House works… just the expression of power in general.” (Ested, 07:38)

• Congressional Input & MAGA Schisms:
  Democrats and even some Republicans (e.g., Rand Paul) are sidelined. Ested notes a growing divide within MAGA: isolationists vs. those supporting intervention, aggravated by Trump’s pivot toward more “traditional Republican” policies. Notably, past critics like Tucker Carlson are more muted now, possibly due to the extreme brutality reported in Iran.

  “Donald Trump has exhausted a wing of his party already with what they feel like is a pivot from America first to America everywhere.” (Ested, 11:18)

2. ICE Enforcement and Public Backlash

(Timestamps: 13:22–27:28)

• Recent Incident as Flashpoint:
  The shooting of Renee Goode by ICE agents in Minnesota highlights the agency’s aggressive tactics and triggers a surge of resistance nationwide: protests, lawsuits, and vocal criticism.

  “We have been seeing this kind of growing resistance movement to ICE right across the country. And ICE really in the spotlight.” (Jamie, 13:22)

• Evolution and Escalation of ICE Tactics:
  Trump’s directives have moved from targeted enforcement to sweeping roundups in major cities (“cowboy tactics”). The intent, Ested argues, is to instill fear and showcase force, especially in blue cities.

  “They unleashed a show basically, in blue cities that they have targeted for the purposes of reaching those… detaining numbers that Stephen Miller has laid out.” (Ested, 16:10)

• Shift in Public Sentiment:
  Ested details a significant decline in support for harsh immigration policies—even among former Trump supporters. Polls show public concern over immigration declining and perceptions shifting toward immigration as a positive force.

  “Record high of 79% of people consider immigration good for the country. That’s a shift.” (Ested, 18:16)

• Administration’s Defiant Response:
  Despite changing attitudes, the administration, led by figures like Stephen Miller, has doubled down on defending ICE actions, citing federal immunity and dismissing resistance as illegitimate.

  “You have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties… and anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to obstruct you is committing a felony.” (Stephen Miller, quoted by Jamie, 20:39)

• Structural Constraints and Congressional Failure:
  Ested emphasizes that gerrymandering and entrenched partisan districts have “shut out” public sentiment, mitigating Congressional pushback, and leaving little political incentive for Trump to change course.

  “Even if… Americans have cooled on Donald Trump… only a certain amount of [districts] are even competitive enough to reflect that shift in sentiment.” (Ested, 21:09)

• Democratic Party’s Approach:
  Democrats have seen some electoral success, but Ested argues their structural constraints mean even a “blue wave” would yield only small gains. There’s a tension within the party; some progressives call for abolishing ICE, but leadership is wary of embracing divisive slogans, fearing backlash.

  “There is a reticence to stake out a position that they think might come back to bite them.” (Ested, 24:49)

3. Trump’s Threat to Indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

(Timestamps: 27:28–31:22)

• Criminal Investigation as Political Pressure:
  Ested describes how Trump’s open frustration with Jerome Powell has escalated into the Justice Department serving grand jury subpoenas, threatening indictment. Powell confirms the investigation, labeling it an attempt at intimidation.

  “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment... rather than following the preferences of the President.” (Jerome Powell, 28:35)

• Erosion of Norms:
  Jamie and Ested note this is an extraordinary breach—targeting the independence of the Fed—prompting even Republican senators to declare they would block any Trump-appointed replacement for Powell.

  “I will be stunned. I will be shocked if he has done anything wrong.” (Senator Thom Tillis, 30:30)

• Broader Pattern of Intimidation:
  The administration’s intimidation extends to journalists (recent FBI raid on a Washington Post journalist) and others who challenge Trump.

  “This is an administration that has made no secret of their willingness to intimidate enemies on the political side.” (Ested, 29:34)

• Why This Matters:
  Ested argues the independence of the Fed is so critical that the attack on Powell stands apart, yet exemplifies a larger pattern:

  “The importance of this role, and I think the independence of this role, is of such paramount value that is worth placing in a different category than the others.” (Ested, 30:45)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the logic of Trump’s Iran strategy:
  “It doesn’t feel to me like a White House planning for regime change in total, more so than projecting power to frankly scare others.”
  —Ested Herndon (08:00)

• On Congressional impotence:
  “You’re basically waiting on Donald Trump to check himself. And I would say that moment is not coming.”
  —Ested Herndon (21:09)

• On Democrats’ incremental approach:
  “There’s a kind of reticence to stake out a position that they think might come back to bite them.”
  —Ested Herndon (24:49)

• On the unprecedented threat to the Fed’s independence:
  “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates… rather than following the preferences of the President.”
  —Jerome Powell (28:35)

• On MAGA schisms:
  “Donald Trump has exhausted a wing of his party already with what they feel like is a pivot from America first to America everywhere.”
  —Ested Herndon (11:18)

Important Segment Timestamps

• U.S.–Iran Crisis and Trump’s Inner Circle: 01:35–13:07
• ICE Enforcement, Public Backlash and Congressional Response: 13:22–27:28
• Trump vs. the Fed—Jerome Powell Indictment Threat: 27:28–31:22

Tone & Takeaways

The discussion is urgent, lucid, and candid, reflecting the fast-changing landscape of U.S. politics. Ested Herndon brings a trenchant, clear-eyed analysis to the week’s events, and Jamie Poisson skillfully guides the conversation to connect granular details with broader trends—highlighting the erosion of norms, the tension between executive power and democratic checks, and the limits of public sentiment in effecting change.

For listeners and non-listeners alike, this episode offers a brisk, thorough, and grounded look at the forces remaking American politics in January 2026.