U.S. politics! Iran crisis, ICE, Trump vs. the Fed

Summary

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Front Burner – U.S. Politics! Iran Crisis, ICE, Trump vs. the Fed

Date: January 15, 2026
Host: Jamie Poisson (CBC)
Guest: Ested Herndon (Editorial Director, Vox; former host, NYT’s The Run-Up)

Episode Overview

This episode explores a turbulent week in U.S. politics, focusing on three major stories: the Trump administration’s response to the Iran crisis, the intensifying ICE enforcement and domestic resistance, and unprecedented threats to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Jamie Poisson and Ested Herndon break down the intersecting issues of executive authority, political polarization, and institutional norms, providing an accessible, nuanced picture of how these policy crises are unfolding — and what they reveal about the current American political climate.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Response to the Iran Crisis

(Timestamps: 01:35–13:07)

• Escalating Crisis:
  Jamie sets the context with news of Iran’s internet blackout, thousands killed in protests, and a rapidly deteriorating situation.

• Trump’s Military Options:
  Ested explains that reporting (from his former New York Times colleagues) indicates the Pentagon is considering a “wide range of strike options,” even beyond Trump’s public statements. There’s talk of cyber attacks or strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, echoing the interventionist ambitions of the administration’s first term advisors like John Bolton.

  “He’s kind of made his typical brushes at bluster… but the specific options are more broad than he’s saying publicly.” (Ested Herndon, 02:36)

• Internal White House Dynamics:
  The show examines shifts inside Trump’s inner circle—away from the "America First" isolationism (championed by Steve Bannon and JD Vance) and toward a more “expansive version” of presidential power in foreign policy (Marco Rubio, Stephen Miller, current envoy Steve Wyckoff).

  “We’re seeing even the Iran response filter through that lens [of power projection].” (Ested, 05:06)

• Motivations and Strategies:
  Ested is skeptical the administration has a long-term strategy for regime change, seeing more focus on projecting power and negotiating leverage by demonstrating strength, rather than a plan for what comes next.

  “I don’t really feel like that’s how this White House works… just the expression of power in general.” (Ested, 07:38)

• Congressional Input & MAGA Schisms:
  Democrats and even some Republicans (e.g., Rand Paul) are sidelined. Ested notes a growing divide within MAGA: isolationists vs. those supporting intervention, aggravated by Trump’s pivot toward more “traditional Republican” policies. Notably, past critics like Tucker Carlson are more muted now, possibly due to the extreme brutality reported in Iran.

  “Donald Trump has exhausted a wing of his party already with what they feel like is a pivot from America first to America everywhere.” (Ested, 11:18)

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2. ICE Enforcement and Public Backlash

(Timestamps: 13:22–27:28)

• Recent Incident as Flashpoint:
  The shooting of Renee Goode by ICE agents in Minnesota highlights the agency’s aggressive tactics and triggers a surge of resistance nationwide: protests, lawsuits, and vocal criticism.

  “We have been seeing this kind of growing resistance movement to ICE right across the country. And ICE really in the spotlight.” (Jamie, 13:22)

• Evolution and Escalation of ICE Tactics:
  Trump’s directives have moved from targeted enforcement to sweeping roundups in major cities (“cowboy tactics”). The intent, Ested argues, is to instill fear and showcase force, especially in blue cities.

  “They unleashed a show basically, in blue cities that they have targeted for the purposes of reaching those… detaining numbers that Stephen Miller has laid out.” (Ested, 16:10)

• Shift in Public Sentiment:
  Ested details a significant decline in support for harsh immigration policies—even among former Trump supporters. Polls show public concern over immigration declining and perceptions shifting toward immigration as a positive force.

  “Record high of 79% of people consider immigration good for the country. That’s a shift.” (Ested, 18:16)

• Administration’s Defiant Response:
  Despite changing attitudes, the administration, led by figures like Stephen Miller, has doubled down on defending ICE actions, citing federal immunity and dismissing resistance as illegitimate.

  “You have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties… and anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to obstruct you is committing a felony.” (Stephen Miller, quoted by Jamie, 20:39)

• Structural Constraints and Congressional Failure:
  Ested emphasizes that gerrymandering and entrenched partisan districts have “shut out” public sentiment, mitigating Congressional pushback, and leaving little political incentive for Trump to change course.

  “Even if… Americans have cooled on Donald Trump… only a certain amount of [districts] are even competitive enough to reflect that shift in sentiment.” (Ested, 21:09)

• Democratic Party’s Approach:
  Democrats have seen some electoral success, but Ested argues their structural constraints mean even a “blue wave” would yield only small gains. There’s a tension within the party; some progressives call for abolishing ICE, but leadership is wary of embracing divisive slogans, fearing backlash.

  “There is a reticence to stake out a position that they think might come back to bite them.” (Ested, 24:49)

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3. Trump’s Threat to Indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

(Timestamps: 27:28–31:22)

• Criminal Investigation as Political Pressure:
  Ested describes how Trump’s open frustration with Jerome Powell has escalated into the Justice Department serving grand jury subpoenas, threatening indictment. Powell confirms the investigation, labeling it an attempt at intimidation.

  “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment... rather than following the preferences of the President.” (Jerome Powell, 28:35)

• Erosion of Norms:
  Jamie and Ested note this is an extraordinary breach—targeting the independence of the Fed—prompting even Republican senators to declare they would block any Trump-appointed replacement for Powell.

  “I will be stunned. I will be shocked if he has done anything wrong.” (Senator Thom Tillis, 30:30)

• Broader Pattern of Intimidation:
  The administration’s intimidation extends to journalists (recent FBI raid on a Washington Post journalist) and others who challenge Trump.

  “This is an administration that has made no secret of their willingness to intimidate enemies on the political side.” (Ested, 29:34)

• Why This Matters:
  Ested argues the independence of the Fed is so critical that the attack on Powell stands apart, yet exemplifies a larger pattern:

  “The importance of this role, and I think the independence of this role, is of such paramount value that is worth placing in a different category than the others.” (Ested, 30:45)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the logic of Trump’s Iran strategy:
  “It doesn’t feel to me like a White House planning for regime change in total, more so than projecting power to frankly scare others.”
  —Ested Herndon (08:00)

• On Congressional impotence:
  “You’re basically waiting on Donald Trump to check himself. And I would say that moment is not coming.”
  —Ested Herndon (21:09)

• On Democrats’ incremental approach:
  “There’s a kind of reticence to stake out a position that they think might come back to bite them.”
  —Ested Herndon (24:49)

• On the unprecedented threat to the Fed’s independence:
  “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates… rather than following the preferences of the President.”
  —Jerome Powell (28:35)

• On MAGA schisms:
  “Donald Trump has exhausted a wing of his party already with what they feel like is a pivot from America first to America everywhere.”
  —Ested Herndon (11:18)

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Important Segment Timestamps

• U.S.–Iran Crisis and Trump’s Inner Circle: 01:35–13:07
• ICE Enforcement, Public Backlash and Congressional Response: 13:22–27:28
• Trump vs. the Fed—Jerome Powell Indictment Threat: 27:28–31:22

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Tone & Takeaways

The discussion is urgent, lucid, and candid, reflecting the fast-changing landscape of U.S. politics. Ested Herndon brings a trenchant, clear-eyed analysis to the week’s events, and Jamie Poisson skillfully guides the conversation to connect granular details with broader trends—highlighting the erosion of norms, the tension between executive power and democratic checks, and the limits of public sentiment in effecting change.

For listeners and non-listeners alike, this episode offers a brisk, thorough, and grounded look at the forces remaking American politics in January 2026.

Transcript

[Jamie Poisson]

Hey, I'm Elise Hu, host of the podcast TED Talks Daily. Did you know Paylocity offers one platform for HR finance and it that means innovative solutions like on demand payment which offers employees access to wages prior to payday, flexible time tracking features which enables staff to clock in through their mobile device and numerous other cutting edge integrations are available to all your teams in one single place. Learn more about how Paylocity can help streamline work and bring teams [e-mail] Work1.

[Steve Patterson]

This is a CBC podcast.

[Jamie Poisson]

Hey everybody, I'm Jamie. So on the show with me today is US Political journalist and Editorial Director at Vox. Ested Herndon. Estad is a really sharp voice on American politics, someone I've been following for years. You might already know him as the voice behind the New York Times run up podcast from his previous job. And I'm glad to have him with me today to try to wade through yet another seismic week in US Politics. We're going to get into what and who is influencing the president on Iran, the resistance movements that we're seeing across the US Against ICE and why threatening to indict the head of the US Federal Reserve is being met with worry the world over. Asted. It's really great to have you on the show. Thanks so much for making the time.

[Estad Herndon]

Thank you for having me. I really appreciate it.

[Jamie Poisson]

So let's start with Iran and I just want to note for our listeners that we're working on an episode for tomorrow about what is happening inside the country, which is absolutely brutal. Reports since they've gotten some Internet back online of thousands of people dead, potentially imminent executions is awful.

[Steve Patterson]

Protests were triggered by deep economic pain. In the past year, the Iranian Riyadh.

[Estad Herndon]

Has lost more than 8, 80% of.

[Steve Patterson]

Its value to the US dollar.

[Jamie Poisson]

An Iranian official told news agencies that 2,000 people have been killed, but blamed terrorists for the deaths. Aid agencies fear the number killed in the regime's crackdown is higher. You and I are talking midday Wednesday and non, non essential US Personnel are being moved from an air base in Qatar. The latest word from Trump was a post telling the Iranian people that that help is on the way. And can you give me an overview of what we know about the options that Trump is weighing here?

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah, and this is really driven from reporting from my former colleagues at the Times who have reported in the last several hours that the Pentagon was thinking about a wide range of strike options, even more so than Trump has said himself. You know, he's kind of made his kind of typical brushes at Bluster.

[Steve Patterson]

And by the way, to all Iranian patriots, keep protesting, take over your institutions if possible. Iran said that the last time I blew him up with the nuclear capability, which they don't have any longer. So Iran said that the last time they better behave.

[Estad Herndon]

But we didn't know kind of necessarily the specific options, you know, and from the Times reporting, it says that, you know, a cyber attack or strike against Iran's nuclear apparatus. I think things that we have seen before and kind of harkens back to the John Bolton kind of worldview of Donald Trump's first term, in which US intervention, particularly to try to undercut the Iranian government was something that they were pushing him to do at that time.

[Steve Patterson]

With me, it's very simple. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. This was the moment Iran's Pandora box opened wide. When the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal, sanctions tightened, all revenues fell, and the economy entered a prolonged contraction.

[Estad Herndon]

Since, you know, Donald Trump has found himself in the last several weeks, obviously with an ever expanding foreign policy portfolio. And I think for him, it kind of rolls through that through line of expanded executive power. You know, I think, you know, Donald Trump was associated with the kind of non forever wars wing of the Republican Party. Think about folks like Steve Bannon and others who had really pushed a more isolationist view of the world. I think Even folks like J.D. vance started to encapsulate that in the last year or so, but I think it's really been overtaken in the last several months by, you know, a worldview that's been embraced by folks like Marco Rubio and even folks like Stephen Miller on the international front who have decided that, you know, a more expansive version of, of the presidency, one that kind of undercuts congressional authority, it gives them more options domestically and abroad.

[Steve Patterson]

You can talk all you want about international niceties and everything else, but we live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws.

[Estad Herndon]

And so we're seeing even the Iran response filter through that lens.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah. And just tell me more about who some of these guys are that want action on Iran specifically are and like, why, what their motivations are.

[Estad Herndon]

Well, you know, I, you know, I don't want to speak to, you know, some of the motivation is speculation, but we have seen this be a long held interest of people in Donald Trump's orbit. Even going back to Rudy Giuliani, for.

[Steve Patterson]

The life of me, I can't figure out why the leaders of Western democracies want to prop up an agreement that will inevitably, inevitably make a insane dictatorship that kills because you practice a different religion. Why they want them to have nuclear weapons.

[Estad Herndon]

And I mentioned John Bolton.

[Steve Patterson]

The outcome of the President's policy review should be to determine that The Ayatollah Khomeini's 1979 revolution will not last until its 40th birthday first day.

[Estad Herndon]

Those were people who were kind of around during first term Donald Trump and who had always found military ventures in Iran and the opportunity and business opportunity there to be part of their kind of explicit pitch. Remember, Donald Trump withdrew from the Obama administration's pact with Iran in their first term and Iran in return, increased uranium enrichment, which has kind of led, I think, has been kind of seen as the justification for some coroners of the White House's advisors into military action. That's now, I think, in this term, encapsulated by different groups of people. The Boltons and others are out and now people like Steve Wyckoff, Donald Trump's top envoy, who's been leading negotiations when it comes to Ukraine and also on this issue has also been, is now kind of emerged as the central figure here. And so they had kind of kept an arm's length until in the last several days as they have been focused on obviously Venezuela, Cuba and other places. But we're seeing kind of increasing signals that the same eye that kind of cast for more increased military intervention in those places is now looking towards Iraq.

[Jamie Poisson]

Is there an argument, though, for this administration wanting to keep the current regime in Iran in place and, and keep them weak?

[Estad Herndon]

You know, I, I think that there some have made that argument, but I guess I, from my perspective, you know, from my perspective, this doesn't feel like an administration that is working from a, a kind of, from a kind of like 4D chess worldview. You know, I think that I don't really feel like that's how this White House works. Like, we have seen Donald Trump basically make decisions based on no plan B, no plan C, but just the expression of power in general. And so I think that, like, if we take Venezuela as instructive, I don't think we should see them as careening towards action with a view of what comes next more so than them wanting to project power and feeling like shifting their leverage and negotiating leverage is their own legal. And so I really think that, you know, it doesn't feel to me like a, like a White House planning for, you know, planning for regime change in total, more so than projecting power to frankly scare others.

[Jamie Poisson]

Where are the Democrats on a possible Iran intervention? And like, I guess, does it even matter?

[Estad Herndon]

I mean, I would say the first answer is the easiest. It, you know, Donald Trump has not kind of, you know, included Democrats at the table, and more so has included Congress at the table in general.

[Steve Patterson]

Are you opposed to using military force in Iran? It's got to be debated by Congress, something like that. The War Powers act, the Constitution requires a discussion in Congress. We've had no reach out from the administration at this point.

[Estad Herndon]

You know, I was on the Hill in the last several days, and one of the things that you're hearing from D and R and others is a real sense of that kind of foreign policy, like whiplash, foreign policy in general that I think we're talking about. And so Democrats have warned the White House on the possibility of Iran strikes. Even people, you know, that's included people, I think, who you would expect, Chuck Schumer and others.

[Steve Patterson]

This week, we're also confronting another crisis facing the American people. Trump's dangerous drift towards endless war in a variety of corners of the world at a time when families are paying more, getting less, when grocery bills and energy costs are squeezing household budgets.

[Estad Herndon]

But also people from, you know, Donald Trump's side, the more libertarian wing folks like Rand Paul, who's really been someone who has gained more and more of an independent streak as the White House's foreign portfolio has expanded.

[Steve Patterson]

I'm afraid if you bomb Iran, it might have the opposite effect. Often when foreign bombs rain in on a country, that country changes and reorients their anger from their own authoritarian leaders towards the foreign power that's attacking. So I don't think it will help the situation. I think it may make the situation.

[Estad Herndon]

But I think you're, you know, the question that I think focuses on the important part because this is in the White House, that's really taken in those voices and I would say more importantly, has diminished the role of congressional input in general.

[Jamie Poisson]

You know, I'd be here, curious to hear your take on this. You know, there's reporting, of course, that the JD Vance has been counseling the president to focus on diplomacy with Iran, or at least was in the last kind of week on, you know, maybe something like opening up their nuclear program to inspections for, you know, some kind of sanctions being lifted or something like that. But last time when they were considering bombing Iran and then they did obviously bomb their nuclear sites, we saw a big backlash from a lot of figures in maga, people like Tara, Tucker Carlson. They're quite quiet this time around. And why do you think that is?

[Estad Herndon]

Well, I think the images of repression and I think the situation on the ground is one the reason why I think across the board there's some wait and see. And I think that the White House isn't being met with as stiff opposition because of the reports and the scope of horror we're seeing from initial reporting. Now I think you're pointing out an important point though, like this is a growing schism in the President and I think even that MAGA ecosystem in general and Donald Trump has exhausted a wing of his party already with what they feel like is a pivot from America first to America everywhere. And so, you know, I think the reporting that you're referencing from JD Vance dovetails with things I have seen and Republicans I have talked to who I think consider themselves who considered, you know, considered that kind of Bannon esque isolationism as a core tenet of the MAGA ideology. And I think that what they're seeing is a second term that in several fronts, Donald Trump has, has, has governed as more traditional Republican. I think this has caused him some issues on the economic front. This, you know, this has caused him, I think some issues across the kind of political spectrum. And we're seeing it reflected in things like approval rating and those traditional metrics. And so I think, you know, what you're talking about is a expression of those divides that is playing out through what we're seeing in terms of Iraq, foreign.

[Steve Patterson]

Hi there. Steve Patterson here, host of the Debaters, the show where Canada's top comics take on the world's most important questions. This week we're asking, is shawarma the best late night food? All right, time to wrap this up. Listen, wherever you get your podcasts, let's.

[Jamie Poisson]

Move on to ICE. So after the shooting of 37 year old Renee Goode last week in Minnesota, an SUV apparently blocking traffic, ICE agents get out of their vehicle. One officer grabs the driver side handle. The SUV reverses briefly, then pulls forward to turn. Then another agent fires three shots, killing a 37 year old local woman. Renee Nicole Good. We have been seeing this kind of growing resistance movement to ICE right across the country. And ICE really in the spotlight. But first, how would you describe what exactly ICE has been doing in cities across America during this administration? But I guess specifically in recent weeks.

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah, I mean, it's important to kind of start from the beginning. You know, Donald Trump came in with what he felt was a mandate on immigration on two fronts. The first was to what he would say, secure that southern border increase, decrease border crossings. And that has largely been a successful effort.

[Jamie Poisson]

In the first full eight months of this Trump administration, U.S. customs and Border Protection reported just over 85,000 encounters at the border. That's the lowest number since 1970.

[Estad Herndon]

If you remember back to the RNC, you know, there's those flyers for mass deportations now. And that is the kind of. That was the crux of the. Of what Stephen Miller was promising.

[Steve Patterson]

We are looking to set a goal of a minimum of 3,000 arrests for ICE every day. And President Trump is going to keep pushing to get that number up higher each and every single day so we can get all of the Biden illegals that were flooded into our country for four years out of our country, and.

[Estad Herndon]

We can't take the risk. You know, they made several moves in terms of elevating, you know, customs and Border Protection tactics that are thought to be more, you know, more dramatic. And so those were kind of the backdrop which led ICE to these cities with the intention of disruption. And so we saw that in Los Angeles, we saw that in Chicago, and obviously, we saw that most recently in Minneapolis. This is the logical result of the operation that this White House undertook. And the goal was to, I think, you know, put, you know, I think instill fear in these communities. And so when they met, I think they have met a surprising level of resistance, both in terms of civil action and legal action, that some of these states are taking the push against this.

[Jamie Poisson]

ICE surge, not just on the streets, but now in the courts.

[Estad Herndon]

We're here to announce a lawsuit after.

[Jamie Poisson]

Lawyers for the state of Minnesota and the twin cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul filed a lawsuit against the federal government to back off on its massive immigration enforcement.

[Estad Herndon]

But it's also important to note this is a show that they wanted, and this is a show that they planned for, because to the White House, this was the point of their return to office. Now, we have seen the White House back off on that in some places, Donald Trump saying that he asked for industries such as hospitality and others to not become as big of a focus. And we've seen them kind of pull back when it gets to the point of disrupting kind of economic or corporate partners that have an ear to the White House. But they have unleashed a show basically, in blue cities that they have targeted for the purposes of reaching those kind of detaining numbers that Stephen Miller has laid out. And so some of the work we have been doing at VOX was looking at just how there were folks that they put in charge of that Chicago in Terms of their raids in Chicago, for example, whose goal was called cowboy tactics, where they were basically going to those places they thought unauthorized migrants hung out, like the Home Depot is the most famous example. And rounding up as many folks as possible, that was thought to not be an ICE tactic years ago. And so when we were talking to people like Tom Homan, for example, Trump's so called border czar, he was really advocating for things like targeted enforcement for violent criminals.

[Steve Patterson]

We're not going on the streets looking for people different than us. We're targeting enforcement, operations. I don't like the word raid. And look, this is a country rich in immigrants. Immigrants, this country. We're looking for people that enter this country legally, which is a crime. They've had the due process. We got, you know, we got one point.

[Estad Herndon]

That's not where they have landed. They have landed on the kind of Stephen Miller Customs and Border Patrol style roundup, all possible. And that's really what we have seen as the effort in those cities.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah. Do you think people who voted on this issue as their number one issue for the Trump administration are having kind of buyer's remorse on this issue right now, or how are those people thinking about it, you think, when they see what's happening?

[Estad Herndon]

Well, I think there's a couple things that come to mind when we talk about that. One, I think it's important to say that Donald Trump is not all popular. Donald Trump, his approval rating is plummeting. And even on things like ISIS killing of Renee Good, our initial sense of public polling is that most people in the country, to a degree that even passing partisanship levels, see that as a extrajudicial killing, see that officer is in the wrong. And even on issues like immigration, we have seen public sentiment shift. There was a big concern about things like the border and immigration going into the 24 election. That really has receded. And so questions that Gallup asked recently about like whether Americans want immigration decrease, that was 55% of Americans a year ago. It's only 30% of Americans now. That is a shift. Record high of 79% of people consider immigration good for the country. That's a shift. And so what we're seeing across the board is some of the White House that has overreached in those desires. And also a changed problem too, because I do think, you know, we should acknowledge that, you know, things like border crossings are down. We're not seeing the same type of scenes we were seeing in places like El Paso that we, you know, in the 2022 or 2021. But I also think that it's important as we go back to voters and talk to them. You know, saying that you have buyer's remorse for Donald Trump is different from saying that you regret your vote or you prefer the other option. You know, oftentimes when we ask those same people, does that mean you wish you voted for Kamala Harris, or does that mean you prefer Democrats? That collapses. And so, you know, I think that really we're seeing a disaffection from a political system broadly that even Donald Trump fuels.

[Jamie Poisson]

Give him a shift in public sentiment even within his own party on ICE enforcement. Why then do we see this administration doubling down so much on, you know, the fact that. That they think that the killing of Renee Goode was completely justified? Right. I was watching Stephen Miller the other night just completely defend every possible action.

[Steve Patterson]

By ICE to all ICE officers. You have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties, and anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop you or tries to obstruct you is committing a felony. You have immunity to perform your duties. And no one, no city official, no state official, no illegal alien, no leftist agitator or domestic insurrectionist can prevent you from fulfilling your legal obligations and duties. And the Department of Justice has made.

[Jamie Poisson]

Like, why that response?

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah, I mean, you would think, right, that they would. If public sentiment was shifting, you would see a White House calibrating itself to that. But, you know, this is Donald Trump, who won, believes in his kind of like, double down forever philosophy. But most importantly, this is a political system where public sentiment has kind of been shut out from its impact. Right. So I think the biggest reason that you see a White House that is doubling, tripling down is that they really don't have any congressional pushback on that front. Like, you know, this is what I tell people is the big impact of things like gerrymandering and the big impact of a kind of political system that doesn't allow that change in public sentiment to have a clear outlet. Because even if, you know, Americans have cooled on Donald Trump, you know, we have. We have congressional districts that are largely drawn, safety and safe are. And only a certain amount of them are even focusing, are competitive enough to even reflect that shift in sentiment. Right. Even their redistricting efforts and kind of other things that the White House has really focused its attention on, they're not. Have been trying to win the midterms through convincing enough people that Donald Trump is doing a good job. They've been trying to win the midterms through changing the Rules of the game. And so all that is to say, when people ask themselves if public sentiment is shifting, why isn't this White House changing? And I would just say that is supposed to be Congress's role. They are supposed to be the branch that reflects and checks the executive based on kind of being a better reflection of where people are. And that's really the role that they've abdicated. And in that absence, Donald Trump has not. You're basically waiting on Donald Trump to check himself. And I would say that moment is not coming.

[Jamie Poisson]

And just put the Democrats into this context for me. Right. Like, you know, how are they failing here, particularly on this conversation around ice? Like, do you, you know, what opportunities do they have that you think they're not taking right now? Because I, I take, yeah, all of the points you just made. But there, there still are like competitive states and districts in the mix. Yeah, for sure.

[Estad Herndon]

And the thing is, Democrats are doing pretty fine in them, honestly. You know, when you think about kind of the elections we've had this year, Democrats have done pretty well. We talk about projections even for midterms or even how they performed in off year's elections, even going back into the Biden era. I think there's a lot of, there's a lot of signs that this could be a 2026 that's a positive one for Democrats. I guess I would just caveat in a couple ways. The structures I'm talking about means that that benefit, let's say they get said blue wave. Right. What does that mean for their Senate options? It's still only one or two seats. Right. And what does that mean for their House options? Is still a majority that's going to be constrained to a single digit or something around that even in the best type of year. And so I guess I'm saying it's important for me to talk about the structures because I think that really, I think that's the, really the driving reason why so many of our elected officials are focused on their most partisan corners is because basically the system rewards said focus.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah. And just, you know, I was listening to Hakeem Jeffries. I mean, he did say that Kristi.

[Estad Herndon]

Noem, the Department of Homeland Security and ice, they're totally out of control.

[Steve Patterson]

And the American people want these extremists.

[Estad Herndon]

To be reined in.

[Jamie Poisson]

But the solution that he talks about seems to just involve making them more accountable. Right. Which is not super clear.

[Estad Herndon]

And so clearly there's some common sense measures that need to be put in place so that ICE can conduct itself in a manner that is at least consistent with every other law enforcement agency in the United States of America.

[Jamie Poisson]

And just, you know, why not do something stronger like, I don't know, even talking about, even talk about abolishing ice.

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah, this has been the discussion somewhat in Congress. You've seen some people embrace language of abolish ice, even beyond the progressives who were there years ago. And you've also seen some members of Congress on the Democratic side say, hey, in this upcoming fundraising fight, maybe Democrats should threaten to shut down the government rather than fund the Department of Homeland Security and continue to fund these law enforcement operations. But you don't see that really embraced by leadership at this point. And I think that you mentioned Jefferies. There is a kind of reticence to I think, stake out a position that they think might come back to bite them. And so you've seen even some. I was seeing third way, a moderate Democratic group in Washington put out a statement yesterday encouraging Democrats to stay away from calling for abolishing ICE and comparing it to defund the police movements that I think even folks on the progressive side have disavowed three, four years later. I don't know if that's the same thing. I think that that's going to be one of the big questions of this year is if Americans see those things in conflation, because isis, a kind of newly created organization that's specific to law enforcement and those tasks were handled broadly by other agencies before that. I think that they could make an argument to say that what ICE has become has just become a sort of paramilitary arm of this Trump administration. And in the kind of turning the page of that, that that group is no longer necessary. But, you know, I don't think that's going to be a story that you're going to see come from the leadership of Democrats. Right. That's going to be something I think is going to be more focused on the progressive and left side. And come 2027, that's going to be what the party has to work out in the midterms. In the short term, they're not going to want the debate about. They want the focus on Donald Trump and being just a general pushback against them. And with issues like health care at the center, that's going to be the House Senate strategy and basically try to punt those immigration fights till the primary, the presidential primary the following year.

[Jamie Poisson]

We have a little bit of time left. I can't believe the last thing I'm going to try to squeeze in here is an Administration threatening to indict the chair of the Federal Reserve. But here we are. Yeah. So Jerome Powell. And just for people who might not be totally caught up on this story, could you just describe for me, like, what is going on here?

[Estad Herndon]

Well, for months, Donald Trump has made no secret of his frustration with the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.

[Steve Patterson]

He's billions of dollars over budget. So he either is incompetent or he's crooked. I don't know what he is, but he does a, certainly he doesn't do a very good job.

[Estad Herndon]

And what we saw in the last week was reporting that the White House had opened a criminal investigation against Powell as part of a broader pressure campaign to force him out. And we had Powell. Chairman Powell has now confirmed that investigation.

[Steve Patterson]

On Friday, the Department of justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last.

[Estad Herndon]

June and pushed back against it, saying that he feels that it is obviously part of a broader attempt at intimidation from this White House.

[Steve Patterson]

The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President. This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.

[Estad Herndon]

And they're making no secret of it. I mean, Donald Trump, whether it be Jerome Powell or Attorney General Tis James here in New York or even, you know, I saw alert about the FBI raiding a home of a Washington Post reporter. According to the Post, federal agents searched.

[Jamie Poisson]

Her phone and devices, seizing two laptops.

[Steve Patterson]

Attorney General Pam Bondi confirming the news in a post on X, writing the.

[Jamie Poisson]

Search warrant was executed at, quote, the home of a Washington Post journalist who was obtaining and reporting classified and illegally leaked information from a Pentagon contractor.

[Estad Herndon]

And this is a, this is a administration has made no secret of their willingness to intimidate enemies on the political side. And Jerome Powell has been one in Donald Trump's one on Donald Trump's targets for some long time. They are formalizing it with this criminal review.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah, I hadn't heard about that WaPo raid.

[Estad Herndon]

Wow.

[Jamie Poisson]

This administration goes after lots of people like, as you know, James Comey. Letitia James, how do you think this one's different? Is it different to you?

[Estad Herndon]

Well, the importance of the role obviously is the seriousness. You know, the head of the Federal Reserve, I think is even you're seeing, you know, go back to the Hill. It was a scene that's even beyond the pale for even some Republicans. I saw, I was there as some Republicans were making clear that any replacement would not be confirmed and that they do. They see this as a political distraction.

[Steve Patterson]

I know Chairman Powell very well. I will be stunned. I will be shocked if he has done anything wrong. North Carolina's Thom Tillis vowing to block any Trump Fed nominees, another example of.

[Estad Herndon]

Amateur hour as far as I'm concerned. And so that was coming out even from Senate and House Republicans. And so the importance of this role, and I think the independence of this role is of such paramount value that is worth placing in a different category than the others. I just think that it is helpful context to know that whether it is Jerome, whether you're Jerome Powell or an individual reporter, their willingness to use the levers of government to intimidate is the same.

[Jamie Poisson]

Okay, Estad, thank you very much for this. Really appreciate it.

[Estad Herndon]

Thank you. I really appreciate it.

[Jamie Poisson]

All right, that's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.

[Estad Herndon]

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