U.S. politics! Platner implosion, where’s McConnell?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Front Burner (CBC)

Episode: "U.S. politics! Platner implosion, where’s McConnell?"

Host: Jamie Poisson

Guest: Alex Shepard (Senior Editor, The New Republic)

Date: July 9, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Jamie Poisson and Alex Shepard break down two major crises shaking up U.S. politics on the eve of the 2026 midterm elections: the explosive collapse of progressive Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner's campaign in Maine due to serious misconduct allegations, and a swirl of uncertainty and intrigue over the absence of Republican Senate stalwart Mitch McConnell. The conversation also delves deep into internal party wars, what the midterms mean for both the Democrats and Republicans, and the broader stakes for American democracy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Implosion of Graham Platner's Campaign

• Background: Platner, a progressive insurgent critical of Israel and the Democratic establishment, recently won the Maine Democratic Senate primary. His win was seen as pivotal for Democrats eager to retake the Senate (02:02).
• Allegations & Fallout: Platner is accused of rape and toxic behavior by several women, with allegations ranging from emotional abuse to sexual assault, which he denies (03:06, 03:51). Despite surviving earlier scandals—including controversial tattoos and problematic online posts—these new allegations prompted mass withdrawal of support from key Democratic figures and organizations.
• Endorsements Withdrawn: Major progressives and party stalwarts, including Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, called for his resignation (08:39).
• Campaign Exit Drama: Platner, while expected to step aside, is reportedly negotiating to influence the choice of his successor (11:34).

Notable Quotes:

• Platner, post-primary victory:
  “If you believe, as I do, that we can change our politics and change our country, then you must also believe that people can change.” (02:02)
• Alex Shepard on the tipping point:
  “So the first accusation of sexual assault was the tipping point. And because Platner for months had...been telling his biggest supporters and donors, you know, there's nothing else out there...all of his endorsements dried up.” (04:07)
• On progressive excitement and party blind spots:
  “One of the reasons why so many Democrats kind of fell for Platner was that...he seemed to address Democratic vulnerabilities with men and with working class men...the problem with all of it was that he was lying.” (06:47)

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2. Democratic Party Turmoil: Progressives vs. Establishment

• Successor Power Struggle: Platner’s backers push to have influence over his replacement, against establishment resistance—reflecting broader intra-party conflict (11:34–13:32).
• Grassroots v. Leadership: Shepard underscores real grassroots anger at party leadership, with outsider candidates gaining momentum as voters feel the establishment has "been asleep at the wheel" (16:04).
• Establishment Response: Thus far, Democratic leadership appears passive, banking on public animosity toward Trump rather than articulating a compelling, positive vision for voters (18:10).

Notable Quotes:

• Shepard, on progressive momentum:
  “There's just real anger at the grassroots, at the party's leadership, especially...the fact that many Democratic voters...see the party as having been asleep at the wheel at the start of the sort of second Trump term. They're just furious at Chuck Schumer. They're furious at Hakeem Jeffries...” (16:04)
• On establishment strategy:
  “Essentially the Democratic establishment strategy has been to just sit back and basically try to make as little fuss as possible and just ride this wave of outrage at Trump.” (18:10)
• On shifting narrative:
  “By backing away, the sort of party's establishment...has ceded the kind of narrative to the left.” (19:54)

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3. The Republican Side: Chaos and Structural Advantages

• Dysfunction & Trifecta Jeopardy: Trump’s unpopularity, youth defections, and intra-party disarray threaten the GOP, despite legal and financial advantages. Republicans currently control the government trifecta, but that’s increasingly in doubt (20:37).
• Supreme Court Rulings Impact: Recent decisions allowing unlimited party spending and continued gerrymandering disproportionately benefit Republicans, but may not be enough in the face of anti-Trump backlash (21:36).
• Long-Term Democratic Anxiety: While the short-term outlook for Democrats is good, future redistricting means long-term prospects are grim (22:32).

Notable Quotes:

• Shepard on the outlook:
  “I think the mood has soured so much against this [Trump] administration that what we're looking at...is a wave election that would be on par with something maybe that we haven't seen since 2006.” (21:36)
• Shepard’s long view:
  “The longer-term outlook for the Democrats is incredibly, incredibly bleak...the Supreme Court should have a Republican majority, you know, until the 2050s at the very least...” (22:32)

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4. The Mystery of Mitch McConnell’s Disappearance

• Current Situation: McConnell suffered what is believed to be a heart attack three weeks ago and has not been seen publicly, prompting wild speculation about his condition, including rumors he may be brain dead (24:04).
• Party Panic: His potential resignation or death could trigger a special election under Kentucky law, opening the door for a possible Democratic pickup or spoiler candidate in this usually safe GOP seat (25:07, 27:00).
• Strategic Secrecy Alleged: Some suggest McConnell’s team is being secretive to avoid triggering a special election immediately, which could give Democrats an advantage (26:35, 27:00).

Notable Quotes:

• Shepard, on McConnell’s vanishing act:
  “No one has seen or heard from him since, although there were reports yesterday that he had had a series of conversations with, you know, people in politics, essentially.” (24:04)
• Jamie Poisson, on speculation:
  “The vibe is like proof of life.” (26:33)
• On why a special election matters:
  “If Booker the Democrat, won in the special election, then he would have more time in office to...be the incumbent...so that when we get to the midterms...maybe that would better his chances.” (28:29)

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5. Republican House Disunity & The ‘SAVE Act’ Meltdown

• Congress in Disarray: Speaker Mike Johnson lost control of his caucus as far-right members shut down the House over demands to pass the pro-Trump ‘SAVE Act’—a draconian voting law and centerpiece of Trump’s legislative agenda (29:52, 30:12).
• Legislative Gridlock: The establishment’s previous strategy—accommodate the far right and count on moderates—has broken down, leaving the House “a shambles” (32:32).

Notable Quotes:

• Shepard on Republican chaos:
  “The House has just been a shambles for, you know, most of Trump's second term partly for this reason.” (32:32)
• On Johnson’s predicament:
  “He was once able to kind of wrangle those people, and now we're just seeing that he's not able to do that at all.” (33:22)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• Platner post-primary: “If you believe...people can change.” — Platner (02:02)
• Accuser description: “That blank stare was kind of like a photographic memory that, that I still have...” — Accuser/Witness (03:23)
• Shepard on Dems’ mistakes: “They just held on for far too long. And after it had become very clear...he was lying...” (06:47)
• Shepard on progressive uprising: “There's just real anger at the grassroots, at the party's leadership... Outsider candidates...are just appealing to a lot of people right now...” (16:04)
• On McConnell’s disappearance: “The vibe is like proof of life.” — Jamie Poisson (26:33)
• On Republican infighting: “The House has just been a shambles for...most of Trump's second term.” — Shepard (32:32)

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Important Timestamps

• Graham Platner’s Scandals and Fallout: 02:00–13:57
• Democratic Party Infighting and Strategy: 13:57–20:37
• Republican Disarray, Supreme Court Rulings, and Election Landscape: 20:37–24:04
• The Mystery of Mitch McConnell and Kentucky Senate Dynamics: 24:04–29:19
• House GOP Meltdown over SAVE Act, and Johnson’s Weakening Grip: 29:19–33:22

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Tone & Speaker Style

• Poisson remains sharp, inquisitive, and succinct in her questioning.
• Shepard offers frank, detailed analysis, pulling no punches regarding both parties’ failures and strategies. He highlights both structural issues and personalities with a touch of wry humor and deep political insight.

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For Listeners: Why This Episode Matters

• Explosive allegations radically reshaping a critical Senate race
• Deepening, consequential divides within both U.S. political parties
• Unusual opacity around a legendary Republican leader’s health and its national stakes
• High-stakes maneuvering within Congress that could impact the entire election landscape

Whether you’re watching the midterms closely or want a smart, context-rich analysis of current American political dynamics, this episode provides clarity, nuance, and timely insights into both headline developments and their deeper causes.

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Transcript

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[Alex Shepard]

This is a CBC podcast.

[Jamie Poisson]

Hey, everybody, it's Jamie. And today on the show, Alex Shepard, senior editor of the New Republic, is with me. The US Midterms are coming up this fall. They could flip control of the House and, and possibly the Senate or not. And a bunch of pretty seismic and messy things have been happening as we hurtle towards them. We'll get into the implosion of the campaign of progressive Democratic candidate Graham Platner in Maine and how that has laid bare a war in the Democratic Party. And what about the Republicans who are embroiled in internal chaos of their own, including the kind of disappearance of Republican Senator Mitch McConnell? Okay, let's get straight to it. Alex. Hey, how's it going? Great to have you.

[Alex Shepard]

It's great to be back.

[Jamie Poisson]

So let's start with Graham Platner. We actually talked about Platner with you recently when we did an episode with you about how toxic it has become for Democratic politicians to take money from AIPAC because of how critically many people are viewing Israel right now. Platner was extremely critical of Israel. He was also one of these or is progressive candidates who have been winning in some of these Democratic primaries and have been taking on the more moderate Democratic establishment. And he did win.

[Graham Platner]

We won last night. Resounding, resounding win from the voters of Maine. If you believe, as I do, that we can change our politics and change our country, then you must also believe that people can change.

[Jamie Poisson]

And he was set to take on Republican Susan Collins this fall in the state of Maine. And Democrats thought that they could flip, that this is like a very, very important state for them. But now he has been accused of rape and. Talk to me a little bit about these allegations, which he denies, and how they came out this week.

[Alex Shepard]

Yeah, so, I mean, there had been a story a few weeks ago in which several women who had dated Platner in the past described you toxic and in some cases abusive behavior.

[News Reporter]

Platner confirming last month that he sent sexually explicit text messages to multiple women early on in his marriage. Last week, several ex girlfriends describing, quote, unsettling behavior to the New York Times, one claiming he got physical. He denies being violent. His opponent.

[Alex Shepard]

These stories that dropped this week were basically follow Ups to that. And in two of them, there were allegations of sexual assault, including Platner forcing a former partner to have sex with him after she had one, told him to not come over, and then two after she had said no repeatedly.

[Accuser/Witness]

I looked at him and I remember this very specific look in his eyes. And I could smell alcohol. And I was like, this is different. He is heavily intoxicated. Like, and that blank stare was kind of like a photographic memory that, that I still have of that night and his. That was me recognizing what the situation was.

[Alex Shepard]

And this was another one where he had removed a condom during sex without consent.

[Graham Platner]

I wanted to directly address the troubling, serious and false allegations against me. Any accusation of non consensual behavior is categorically false.

[Alex Shepard]

So the first accusation of sexual assault was the tipping point. And because Platner for months had basically been telling his biggest supporters and donors, you know, there's nothing else out there. And specifically, there are no allegations of sexual assault out there, all of his endorsements dried up.

[Political Analyst]

Independent Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, who backed Platner through earlier scandals, said he spoke to him today and, quote, recommended that he step aside. More than 30 Democratic senators have called for him to drop out, including senators, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, who's in charge of electing Democrats to the Senate, as well as some.

[Alex Shepard]

So, you know, he was basically cooked. And what we now understand is that he's attempting to kind of negotiate an exit from the race. Now that, of course, being this Senate race has also turned toxic over the last 24 hours, where it seemed a couple days ago that Platner was ready to get out. And now it seems like he and his backers are. Are trying to make some demands, you know, to kind of help choose whoever succeed him in this race.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah, yeah, I want to come back to the successor narrative in a second, but just to stay on Platner and these accusations a little bit longer, this is a guy who has weathered some scandals before, right? A tattoo that resembled a skull and crossbones worn by Nazi SS officers. Old Reddit posts where he used racist tropes and was pretty insulting towards rural voters. Very relevant to this moment, a post where he essentially blamed sexual assault victims. Here it is, in part. How about people just take some responsibility for themselves and not get so effed up they wind up having sex with someone they don't mean to. He apologized for all this stuff, said it was from a dark period in his life. Said the skull tattoo. I think was just a skull and

[Graham Platner]

crossbone tattoo that I got in the Marine Corps with a bunch of other Marines. And then, of course, two months after we launched the campaign, it was brought to our attention the, you know, the affiliation with something that neo Nazis use. So I promptly got it covered up because I have no interest in having something like that on my body.

[Jamie Poisson]

So that's obviously like. And people, you know, obviously looked past that and he won the primary. But do you think that there were mistakes made here? Because there is this excitement from like a wing of the Democrats right now when they find these outsiders who can really shake things up, who can sell these more progressive policies like universal health care, stronger unions, et cetera. Platner is a very, very strong communicator. And do you think the people were blinded to some warning signs here?

[Alex Shepard]

Yeah, absolutely. I think part of the issue is that the way that Platner responded to the first wave of accusations. So he gets in the race in the summer, and then in October, there's this huge landslide of old Reddit posts that are released. Those releases timed to this sort of Democratic Party backed challenger, the state's governor, Janet Mills, entering the race. And Platner responds by saying, as you mentioned, oh, that was a dark time in my life. I've changed. I showed that people like me can become better and better adjusted people in the world, and that's what I'm here to do. And that was part of his larger narrative. Right. And I think one of the reasons why so many Democrats kind of fell for Platner was that, you know, his emergence in the summer of 2025 seemed to really scratch an itch. Right. Like the. Donald Trump had just won an election thanks in large part to an astonishingly strong showing with young men. Young men, you know, across race and class, basically. And so I think Platner, for a lot of people, seemed to answer this. And, you know, the problem with all of it was that he was lying. Right. Some of these accusations are, are from quite recently. And, you know, I think that there was a tendency here, I think, partly because of the thrill of having, you know, someone who seemed to address Democratic vulnerabilities with men and with working class men, even though Platinum has never polled particularly well with working class men, that they could kind of excuse a lot of that stuff, and they just held on for far too long. And after it had become very clear, I think, that he was, he was lying about several things and that this sort of toxic behavior that he had described continued until, until really quite recently.

[Jamie Poisson]

You know, as you mentioned, Super PACs and fundraising arms pulled their support. Bernie Sanders said he should resign. I think Elizabeth Warren did, too. Rising political star Zoran Mamdani. I think something like 34 Senate Democrats are saying he should step down right now. Like, do you think we would have seen the same result if this was happening on the other side of the aisle in the Republican Party?

[Alex Shepard]

I would say probably not. I think in general, what we've seen, particularly in post Trump Republican politics, is a, is candidates being rewarded for actually, like, continuing to press on despite numerous allegations of bad behavior, let's say, to put it mildly. I mean, if you look at, for instance, Ken Paxton in Texas, this is somebody, you know, who has a wheelbarrow full of scandals, you know, maybe even a sort of bigger, you know, rap sheet than Graham Platner. And, you know, he's the state Senate nominee right now for the Republican Party. And so I think that there is a bit of a difference there. Now, I mean, it's a little tricky here because part of the reason why Democrats are rightly freaking out, aside from the fact that, you know, continuing to back this guy would obviously immediately undermine many of their, their key criticisms of Donald Trump, who is also been found civilly liable for sexual assault, among other things.

[Conservative Commentator]

He's a thug, and they're trying to make excuses for him. I mean, he's worse than any human being that's ever run for office probably

[Alex Shepard]

is that, you know, Maine, this is the most important Senate race for them. If they want to retake the Senate, they basically have to win the seat. And Maine, generally speaking, is a plus six, I think, Democratic state, but it's been represented by a Republican, Susan Collins, since the 1990s. So this is their best chance to unseat Collins and pick up a seat that they should have, you know, frankly, had for several decades. Now, if you look at the fact that, again, this is, you know, a state with a pretty sizable Democratic majority, and it's a very favorable, you know, election year, election environment nationally. You know, it's very important to not run a candidate who is a liar and who has been credibly accused of sexual assault.

[Jamie Poisson]

Okay, let's get to the drama over who might succeed him. Right. As you alluded to before, we're talking at, what, 2:00, 2:00 Eastern time on Wednesday, and he hasn't resigned yet. I know there's some reporting that he might even do so today, but as you said, there's also a lot of reporting that he's trying to negotiate. Who his successor will be and use that leverage with the state Democratic Party in Maine, which I guess appoints his successor. And just why would he want to do that? What do you make of that strategy? Does whoever follow Graham Platner here want his endorsement at this point?

[Alex Shepard]

I mean, it makes it a huge mess. I think, you know, the sort of steel man argument here which I think is being exceedingly generous to people that do not deserve it, is that Platner represents a rebuke of the sort of Democratic Party establishment. Again, this sort of Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the main financial arm that Democrats in the Senate used to elect their own, had backed the state's 79 year old governor, Janet Mills. She was trounced basically in every poll. She was losing to platinum by like 35 points. And so what, what his allies are saying publicly is they understand the heartbeat of Maine and therefore should be involved in this process to replace him because this sort of mainstream state Democrats can't be trusted. Now I think the other explanation here is that they're just trying to buy time and figure out if they can actually just stay in the race and weather this. They've been sending out a lot of like polls and other kind of, you know, text based communications to supporters, essentially asking them, you know, what, what's your message for Graham? You know, and that, that's I think a way of kind of trying to test the larger climate here. So, you know, I think that the signs are that Platner, I think on some level knows that he should get out of the race but is not quite willing to make that step yet. And you know, there's, they still have a week essentially to file to replace him. One candidate, Troy Jackson, who I believe was the leader of the main state Senate for a long time, he lost the Democratic primary for governor this year. He's already filed. He's one of the candidates that the sort of Platner folks have said that they would find acceptable.

[Political Supporter]

You know, there's a movement here in Maine across this country of people that are fed up and I think that is going to carry whoever is a nominee to victory over Collins, because she doesn't offer any of that. And so that's what I think. I mean, short timeline, obviously money and all that is going to be a challenge. But I definitely think it's doable because the message, the movement is right and that's what's important.

[Alex Shepard]

But you know, it's, it's just a mess. And I think, you know, until he formally says I'm not Running. There are plenty of reasons for Democrats to be nervous that he will try to just forge ahead even though, you know, it. It seems increasingly unlikely based on his scandals and the fact that he will go into November without any endorsements or money. You know, that those would be pretty sizable hurdles to overcome.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah. And just to be clear here, he's the only person that can pull himself out of this race because he's, he's won now.

[Alex Shepard]

Yeah, he won the primary, which was last month. And again, that primary happened, you know, when all these scandals were happening, but, you know, he was essentially unopposed there. Mills had suspended her campaign weeks earlier.

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[Alex Shepard]

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[Political Analyst]

this

[Jamie Poisson]

scandal has really kind of laid bare this division within the Democratic Party between the progressive wing and the more establishment wing. I, I mean the main Democratic Party who. You said back that, you know, establishment candidate, the, the elderly governor. Right. You know, they're pushing back and saying that like Platner, like these guys have no role in who the next nominee would be. Like, how bad could this fight between these two wings get? And then how bad could that be for the party writ large?

[Alex Shepard]

Yeah, I mean, I think one of the places, I think when we talked about AIPAC the last time we talked a lot about the, the race in Michigan, which is our sort of other big proxy battle there you have an establishment back candidate, Haley Stevens. She's running against a progressive, you know, Bernie Sanders aligned young Dr. Abdul El Sayed. And that race, I think is, has become, you know, particularly vicious as, as the primary draws closer. Michigan, God help us, does not go to the polls until, I think August 4th. But I think that what we're seeing right now is a shift in the mood of the electorate. I think that there's a, there's a tendency, especially among establishment aligned Dems to act as though what they're facing is a kind of like, you know, astroturf, bad faith sort of groups, you know, working in concert to undermine the establishment. But the reason why so many of these outsider candidates are winning is because there's just real anger at the grassroots, at the party's leadership, especially like the fact that many Democratic voters that I have spoken to over the last year and a half see the party as having been asleep at the wheel at the start of the sort of second Trump term. They're just furious at Chuck Schumer. They're furious at Hakeem Jeffries. And so candidates that come along and are not backed by the sort of traditional party or have not come up, as, you know, Haley Stevens is a sitting member of Congress right now. You know, outsider candidates, I think, are. Are just appealing to a lot of people right now because of that kind of just, I think, sense of frustration that's permeating.

[Jamie Poisson]

Do you see any attempts on the part of the Democratic Party establishment to try and address any of those concerns the voters seem to have as we kind of hurdle towards the midterms? Or do you see them kind of taking this approach of, like, sitting back and basically laying low with the strategy of, like, let Trump do the work to sink himself? Like, are they. Are they trying to mount a coherent argument for why people should vote for the Democrats in. In the fall?

[Alex Shepard]

I don't think that they are particularly. I mean, one could argue that there's a certain, like. And it. This has kind of been true since Trump took office again, that essentially the Democratic establishment strategy has been to just sit back and basically try to make as little fuss as possible and just ride this wave of outrage at Trump. And that I think one could, I think, kind of reasonably argue that that has worked essentially, that voters are just so frustrated with this administration that even though the Democratic brand is still toxic and that, you know, a lot of voters, not Democratic voters, but a lot of voters, you know, still don't like Joe Biden and still think that the party was up to something nefarious by kind of propping them up for so long that they have. They're still, you know, polling at the generic ballot something like, you know, seven points ahead of Republicans, which is pretty significant. You know, centrist Democrats are still doing reasonably well. Right. Like, you know, there have been blips in here in New York City, in Colorado, maybe in Michigan. For the most part. The party's establishment is still, you know, winning the elections that it's supposed to win. But I think that, you know, one of the stories that is fascinating to me, especially as we draw closer again, God help us, to the 2028 presidential primary, is that all of the kind of intellectual energy and messaging forces on the side of these kind of insurgent or more progressive Democrats and, you know, by, I think sort of backing away, the sort of party's establishment and party's mainstream has ceded the kind of narrative to the left. And I think there's. There's some panic, I think, in some circles right now, especially as more radical or progressive candidates have won a couple of elections. And I think there's a slow realization that that's the case. But I think that right now, you know, even somebody like Rahm Emanuel, the former Obama chief of staff, who's clearly going to run for president, announced earlier this week that he's going to give a speech about how the US should stop giving military aid to Israel. You know, I mean, that, that to me is a sign that not just of how, as we've discussed before, the Democratic Party's base has shifted on Israel. It's a sign of just how, how much the sort of progressives now control the sort of narrative. They have, all of the momentum in terms of agenda setting.

[Jamie Poisson]

Okay, so let's talk about the Republicans and where they are at the moment. As we've been talking about, they are facing pretty heavy headwinds here. Trump's polling numbers are very bad. You know, as you were mentioning before, the Democrats are just generally pulling ahead of the Republicans. There's lots of voter disengagement within the Republican Party. You know, they're losing young men who really kind of propelled them, the Trump administration to office. But they also have structural advantages. Right. This recent Supreme Court ruling that found political parties can coordinate a lot more with campaigns, they struck down limits on how much a party could spend on a candidate. And as I understand it, Republicans have more cash on hand than the Dems. So that's one example, like, just what kind of results are being predicted at the moment? I mean, could they lose this trifecta that they have? How likely is that?

[Alex Shepard]

Yeah. So, I mean, the Democratic brand right now is toxic. But even in spite of that, I think the mood has soured so much against this administration that what we're looking at, especially in the House, is a wave election that would be on par with something maybe that we haven't seen since 2006. House and Senate Republicans are panicking. I think one of the reasons why, why there's so much focus on Platner is just that that has become a kind of gift to Republicans that, you know, that should be a seat the Democrats should be able to pick up. But, you know, it seems, at least for now, up for grabs. But even with the sort of advantages that they've been given via the Supreme Court, which is basically, you know, undone the Voting Rights act, which has allowed, you know, heavy, heavy, heavy gerrymandering, particularly in Southern states which vote Republican and has lifted caps on, you know, the few remaining caps on campaign spending that, that were still in place.

[Jamie Poisson]

There weren't many.

[Alex Shepard]

Yeah, there weren't many. You know, I think, I think there was a lot of panic about this decisions when they came down earlier this year, the spending decision quite recently. But, you know, in the short term, the environment is so unfavorable to Republicans. I don't think that Democrats have a ton to worry about aside from from the Graham Platner fiasco that we've been talking about. The bigger issue for Democrats is that they're going to be running in the most advantageous electoral environment that they have had since probably 2006. And those don't come around very often. And, you know, we're going to have a Census again in 2030. Right. We're going to redraw the maps and where, where are the seats going to go? They're going to go to Florida, they're going to go to Texas. Where are they coming from? New York and California, you know, so I think the longer term outlook for the Democrats is incredibly, incredibly bleak, especially when you factor in the fact that, you know, the Supreme Court should have a Republican majority, you know, until the 2050s at the very least, if nothing changes. And, you know, I think that the larger outlook for Democrats is, is apocalyptic. But in the near term, I think they should, you know, even in a heavily gerrymandered environment, you know, easily be able to retake the House. And, you know, whether they get 51 seats in the Senate is anyone's guess.

[Jamie Poisson]

That was a really interesting long view from you. But just the Senate regardless, is going to be close. Right. Which I think is a good segue to Mitch McConnell, Kentucky senator, who is missing kind of, I guess, what is, what is going on here.

[Alex Shepard]

Yeah. So Mitch McConnell, the former Senate Republican leader, currently the senior senator for Kentucky, had a heart attack, I believe, three weeks ago, and no one has seen or heard from him since, although there were reports yesterday that he had had a series of conversations with, you know, people in politics, essentially. You know, I think the Senate Majority Whip and Scott Jennings, the CNN pundit. Now, I think there were some questions about the veracity of those reports, but the issue here is, you know, because they're all concerned.

[Jamie Poisson]

They're all Republicans.

[Alex Shepard]

They were all Republicans. And everyone was just like, yes, I had a great conversation with Mitch McConnell and we talked about all of the exact same things.

[Scott Jennings]

We talked for about 17 minutes. You know, he talked a lot about the situation with Iran, talked a little bit about Ukraine and what's going on in Europe. I told him I'd been to the Teddy Roosevelt Library. We talked a little bit about the history of the vice presidency and how Roosevelt had transformed that in the modern presidency. A little history of the Senate. I mean, it was a, you know, it was a wide ranging conversation.

[Alex Shepard]

I talked to him and, you know, I think Kentucky should not be a pickup for Democrats. But, you know, one of the reasons why there's so much focus on this race is that Kentucky is one of, I think, only four states that sort of mandates special elections within a certain timeframe if there's a vacancy. So if Mitch McConnell were to resign for health reasons or if he were to pass away, then it would automatically trigger a special election. And for Republicans, that could be a nightmare.

[Jamie Poisson]

I mean, the speculation out there is absolutely wild. I'm not sure if they have confirmed that it was a heart attack, but I guess There was this 911 call where reportedly an unconscious person was mentioned and CPR was mentioned and cardiac arrest was mentioned. And then also there's just wild speculation coming from the MAGA side as well. Like Laura Loomer and those guys saying that, like, sources are telling them that he is, he's brain dead. It's getting really crazy. Like, Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky, is basically saying in a letter that he needs to update constituents on the state of his health. You know, you mentioned Scott Jennings, a conservative commentator. Like, even on cnn, the anchor is like coming back at Scott Jennings, being like, do you think he'd be willing

[Alex Shepard]

to call into the show? Could we get him on the phone now?

[Scott Jennings]

You know, I wasn't really expecting him to call this morning, to be honest.

[Jamie Poisson]

Like, the vibe is like proof of

[Mike Johnson]

life,

[Jamie Poisson]

but just this idea that it could trigger a special election. Like, you have people like Steve Bannon speculating that McConnell's team is trying to, I don't know, like, be secretive about his health because they need to keep him kind of in the Senate until this deadline so that it doesn't trigger a special election. Just like, why? Why would that be so bad?

[Alex Shepard]

Yeah. So, I mean, there is. So McConnell had already announced that he was retiring and there is a race to replace him, which is one of the things that makes all this even crazier. But if there were to be a special election, it would have to, I think, be called within 63 days of the vacancy. So, you know, if, if McConnell were to. To exit, however, you know, today, that election would happen sometime in September. Now, the insane thing about only be to finish out his term. So, you know, if you were elected in September, you would just serve until the end of the year. However, one of the things that is interesting about it is that, you know, you say, okay, well, there are already two candidates for this race. Like, they would probably run in a special election for the seat that they're already running for, but an independent candidate could also run. So one of the reasons why there's so much interest in this is Thomas Massie, the Libertarian and sort of Trump Thorne inside, who lost his primary earlier this spring, could enter that race as a spoiler candidate. And, you know, it's possible that Massie could win. I think that that's pretty unlikely. But if he were to enter, it would. It would make the chance of Charles Booker, the Democrat in that race, increase exponentially because Massey would essentially be pulling away, you know, a certain level of Republican voters. And, you know, it's. It's a remarkable story, and I think it's one that also points to just how bad the environment is for Republicans. Right. Like, they're worried about a special election in Kentucky. That's crazy.

[Political Analyst]

Yeah.

[Jamie Poisson]

Yeah. And I guess just to be clear for people listening, like, if Booker the Democrat, won in the special election, then he would have more time in office to familiarize himself with voters and, you know, be the incumbent, quote, unquote. So that when we get to the midterms in the fall, the idea would be like, maybe that would better his chances.

[Accuser/Witness]

Right.

[Jamie Poisson]

Fair.

[Conservative Commentator]

Yeah.

[Alex Shepard]

I mean, yeah, you have a huge. Yeah, you have a huge incumbent advantage. Right. And I think even if you're just an incumbent for 50 days. Yeah, I think it would still help. And I mean, also it would help because you've. You've beaten this guy already. Right. Like, you're, you're. You've already shown that you can do it, and I think that that would make a difference. Right. People don't like voting for losers. You know, it's one of the reasons why Trump is so insistent that he won the 2020 election. Yeah, it's. I think it's it's really hard for people to hold their nose and vote a second time for somebody that they know has already lost.

[Jamie Poisson]

Excellent point. We talked earlier about the divisions in the Democratic Party. It's also a mess in the Republican Party. I just couldn't help notice the Republican House Speaker, Mike Johnson, completely lost control of Congress the other week because a member of his own party, he basically had to send people home early after this showdown over the same America act,

[Conservative Commentator]

which means all voters must show voter id, all voters must provide a little thing called proof of citizenship.

[Jamie Poisson]

The Trump really wanted to pass. And just explain to me maybe very briefly what happened and how much of a problem is this disunity for the Republican Party heading into the midterms?

[Alex Shepard]

Yes, I mean, basically what happened was that Johnson trying to move through it, you know, an annual defense bill, basically just a kind of pro forma rubber stamp kind of thing. And far right Republicans, as they are want to do, basically rose up and said, we're not going to do this and that we don't want to do anything until this, this act, the SAVE act, this kind of insane and probably unconstitutional, you know, voting bill that would essentially give the federal government sweeping powers over elections that it does not have, because our elections are federalized states run them. You know, that Trump is basically saying, I don't want to do anything until this gets done. It's the most important thing. And now we're seeing, you know, far right or MAGA aligned Republicans saying, you know, unless we do exactly what the President says and take up this, you know, awful voting bill, like we're not going to give the military any money, which is kind of crazy. But I think what it points to is, is that, you know, I think Johnson, as Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, has surprised a lot of people, myself very much included, by how long he's been able to hold on and what is probably the worst job in this country. But for a long time he was largely able to do that by giving the sort of far right what it wanted and essentially daring moderates to stop him. And he made a correct bet most of the time that he could hold on because the moderates would go along with the far right because they didn't want to be the kind of stick in the mud or didn't want to be the people that were stopping, for instance, defense bills from getting signed. But what we're seeing now, I think it's just a total breakdown of that. And, you know, the House is, has just been a shambles for, you know, most of Trump's second term partly for this reason. And, you know, I think the other reason is, is that, you know, the SAVE act, this voting bill, is this kind of central piece of the President's legislative agenda, but it's DOA in the Senate. It just is never going to pass and Johnson knows it.

[Mike Johnson]

We have to press for election integrity measures. That's why we've made it a top priority. It has been stuck in the Senate and, and here's why. Because no Democrat in the House or Senate will vote for the Save America Act. Those two things I just told you, they vote against that every single time. And they will. Why you ask that? That's a rhetorical question. You should go ask them the actual question. Why are you against?

[Alex Shepard]

And Johnson knows that the fight to get it to pass in the House would be bruising. It might cost him his speakership. So, you know, he's just in, in a really unenviable position. And I think, you know, for Republicans too, I think, you know, for some Republicans, they are thinking about their long term prospects, like they don't want to be seen as having, you know, stalled the President's, you know, most important bill because they're worried about getting primaried on the right. But, you know, there's only 40 seats in the House that are really, really up for grabs. So for most Republicans, you know, they don't really have to worry about getting anything done. They can just kind of go on these, you know, crusades that, you know, will get them Instagram followers and Fox News appearances, but don't get anything done. And I think Johnson is, you know, has, he was once able to kind of wrangle those people and, and now we're just seeing that he's not able to do that at all.

[Jamie Poisson]

Right, Alex, this was fun. Thank you very much.

[Alex Shepard]

It's always great to talk to you.

[Jamie Poisson]

All right, that is all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.

[Alex Shepard]

For more cbc podcasts, go to cbc ca podcasts.