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Front Burner
Weakened, Trump heads to China
00:28:44
<p>President Trump arrives in Beijing today for a high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He’s bringing with him a long list of tech and business titans like Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg.</p><p><br></p><p>There’s a lot on the line.</p><p><br></p><p>The two countries have been embroiled in a tit-for-tat trade war for years – which escalated last year after Trump’s Liberation day tariffs. They came to a truce in the fall but the relationship is still fraught. In addition, the war in Iran looms. China is an ally to Iran and the largest buyer of its oil.</p><p><br></p><p>Jonathan Cheng is the Wall Street Journal’s China bureau chief. He walks host Jayme Poisson through what to expect in the coming days.</p><p><br></p><p>For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts</a></p>
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Transcript60 lines
- [00:00]
Jamie Poisson
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- [00:33]
Jonathan Chang
This is a CBC podcast.
- [00:38]
Jamie Poisson
Hi, everyone. I'm JB Poisson.
- [00:47]
Donald Trump
Well, we'll see what happens. We're going to have a great meeting in China. He's a wonderful guy. He's a friend of mine and we're going to have a great meeting. We do a lot of business with China. We do very well with China and they do well with us. And the relationship is very good. We are going to have a great.
- [01:04]
Jamie Poisson
That was President Trump speaking to reporters before leaving for Beijing. He set to arrive later today, Wednesday, for a high stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He's bringing along a real who's who of tech and business. Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, the CEO of Boeing. The list goes on. There's a lot on the line here. The two most powerful countries in the world have been embroiled in a tit for tat trade war for years, which escalated last year after Trump's Liberation Day tariffs. They came to a truce in the fall, but the relationship is still fraught. The war in Iran is also looming over these talks. China is an ally to Iran and the largest buyer of its oil. We're going to walk through all of that with Jonathan Chang. He is the Wall Street Journal's China bureau chief and friend of the. Jonathan, thank you so much for coming on. It's great to have you.
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Jonathan Chang
Yeah, it's a real pleasure to be here.
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Jamie Poisson
So this will be the first time that a US President has gone to China since the last time the Trump went back in 2017. And back then, Trump got this kind of like grand welcome in China, A
- [02:18]
Jonathan Chang
lavish red carpet welcome for President Trump, complete with honor guards on the motorcade route, excited school children waving American and Chinese flags with President Xi and his wife as their guides. The first couple toured the Forbidden City looking almost like old friends.
- [02:36]
Jamie Poisson
He was viewed, I think, as like a pragmatic businessman and dealmaker that Chinese officials hope to negotiate with. I know this is a pretty big question, but just off the top, what do you think the big differences are this time around?
- [02:49]
Jonathan Chang
Oh, yeah, lots. Where to begin? You know, the Chinese have had a lot of time to prepare for this visit. And I don't just mean, of course, the preparation since they announced that the visit was going to happen, they've been preparing for this since he returned to office. They've been preparing for this since the last time he was here in 2017. And so I think there was a sense in the Chinese system that whether it's a Republican or Democrat, whether it's Donald Trump or Joe Biden or whoever else it might be, the US Is going to be taking a much more adversarial position against China. It's going to try to restrict China from getting access to advanced semiconductors and other things like that. And so they made a lot of preparations, they did a lot of homework. And, and that really shows today.
- [03:34]
Jamie Poisson
President Xi has really consolidated his power and vision for China in the last decade. I think that's fair to say. He secured an unprecedented third term in 2023. After 10 years at the top, the Chinese president is looking to tighten his grip on power. In his highly anticipated speech, Xi outlined his vision to make China the dominant global superpower, a plan that requires a robust Chinese military and continued enthusiastic support for the Communist Party, calling for expanded powers in social and economic development. He's invested a lot in technology, AI and he has made China into a green energy superpower. President Xi Jinping said greenhouse gases would be reduced by 7 to 10% by 2035 and that all parts of the economy would shift away from fossil fuels. Until now, China's actions on climate change had focused on boosting renewables, things like planting trees, wind and solar power. And how do you think that changes the dynamics of this summit?
- [04:43]
Jonathan Chang
Well, I think China feels like it can come to this, perhaps not as an equal, but certainly not as a supplicant. They're not coming here in a vastly inferior position where someone like Donald Trump, I think, smells weakness in his counterparties. And I don't think that he's going to come to this visit to Beijing with any of that, because you're right, he is aware of how far China has come in so many of these advanced technologies, all these frontier sectors where China is, if not in the lead, then right up there with the US and it's not just the green energy. It's also the humanoid robots, artificial intelligence, space, military applications, all the rest of it. China is emerging really as a formidable power. One of that is going to be America's, if not equal, but certainly a rival for the. For the foreseeable future.
- [05:40]
Jamie Poisson
And I guess on the flip side of this, the US Is entering these talks while embroiled in a war with Iran, one of China's closest allies in the Middle East. The war has depleted many of the US's military assets. There is a global energy crisis underway. I just saw this morning that inflation is up more than expected in the
- [05:59]
Jonathan Chang
US in April, inflation rose 3.8% year over year. That's the highest level in nearly three years. It was up.
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Jamie Poisson
So what kind of position does that put the US and Trump in going into this visit, you think?
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Jonathan Chang
Well, I think if you ask the President himself, of course, you're going to hear a lot of bravado. And I think, you know, the sense that the war is under control, that the high oil prices are just a temporary blip.
- [06:25]
Donald Trump
And as soon as this war is over, which will not be long, you're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market which is already at the highest point in history, go through the roof. You're going to see the golden age of America, frankly, and you're seeing it now.
- [06:43]
Jonathan Chang
This war has already dragged on a lot longer than the President had initially promised. So I do think that there's a sense here that the us, while putting on a brave face, is going to have to juggle a couple of different priorities here. Because if they do want to get more tough on China, there's a sense in Washington that, look, China is the main event here, that if we want to think about the whole 21st century, it's not going to be one or lost necessarily in the Middle east or in Ukraine or in Venezuela or somewhere else. The only country that can really rival the US in so many of these realms is China. So I think there is an impulse among many in the Trump administration. I think Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, would certainly feel this way, that we need to focus on China. And yet at the same time, it's difficult when you are bogged down in the Middle East. And, you know, the President was elected in large part because of his opposition to these sorts of entanglements in the Middle east and defined himself as in the middle of one, one that he himself got America into, I think is going to be a predicament that I think the Chinese are going to be looking and trying to see whether they can find an advantage here.
- [07:55]
Jamie Poisson
And just talk to me about what those advantages could be.
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Jonathan Chang
The Chinese know that politically the President can't have this conflict in the Middle east prolonged or get worse or start to turn meaningfully against the us. I mean, if you have a couple of high profile casualties or high profile military bungles or something like that, that could really hurt his standing back home. The Chinese are very aware of the American political calendar. They know that there are midterm elections that are happening in just a couple of months and that Donald Trump is going to be really, really eager to see an end to this and also just not to have further strains on the US Economy. And that's something that the Chinese could do if they wanted to. We've seen with the trade war last year and with the way that the Chinese used their strong position in these rare earth magnets, these rare earth minerals, they were able to do considerable damage or certainly convince many in Washington that they could almost the flip of a switch, do some real damage to the US Economy. So that is a vulnerability for Donald Trump.
- [09:04]
Jamie Poisson
Just sticking with Iran for a moment, do you think that the Trump administration is going to seek some help putting an end to this war from China?
- [09:12]
Jonathan Chang
I think there was always this sense that China is able to call the shots when it comes to, say, Vladimir Putin in Russia or with the Iranian government, that somehow the Chinese can, you know, squeeze their, their friends a little bit and that will move the needle. I'm not entirely sure that that is the case here, but do you think
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Donald Trump
he's got what it takes to convince the Iranians, whatever he could do to help with?
- [09:36]
Jonathan Chang
You mentioned that Iran is one of China's closest allies in the Middle East. But this is also a region where China doesn't have very deep roots, not historically, not diplomatically. And they do need to balance the other side of the ledger as well. They're also very close and have been trying to cultivate ties with many of the countries that Iran is firing at. And so China isn't necessarily going to be able to wave a magic wand and make Iran stop, you know, not any more than the US with all of its military might and all of its experience in the region, has been able to make them stop.
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Jamie Poisson
Coming back to the trade war stuff, I just. How would you describe where that is right now for people who might just need a little bit of an update?
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Jonathan Chang
Sure. Well, you know, Donald Trump has called himself Tariffman, and we know that when he returned to office last year, he did exactly that. He slapped tariffs on all sorts of countries, including, of course, China.
- [10:44]
Jamie Poisson
The Trump administration put tariffs of 145% on most Chinese imports.
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Jonathan Chang
China has just raised its tariffs against the US from 84% to 125%.
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Jamie Poisson
Tariffs on China could jump as high as 245%. The new hike is in response to China's retaliatory tariff of 125%.
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Jonathan Chang
The highest tariffs were reserved for China, and not just the tariff level, but the President and Washington in general. The whole Trump administration made it very clear that they saw China as the main problem here. China, of course, is the world's factory floor. That's the moniker that we attach to it because it makes so much of the world's stuff and it exports so much, and so much of it was being routed through third countries. And so the US Was trying to strike side deals that would contain China. Well, what did China do? China struck back pretty hard, and they used these rare earth minerals that they have a real controlling hand in. And that really forced the US to back down. It forced Trump to back down quite quickly. And so I think what they've done is they've effectively neutralized Donald Trump's tariff stick. The President says the overall tariff on imports of Chinese goods will go down 57% to 47%. That decision came after President Xi promised to stop the flow of chemicals that make fentanyl in the United States. Now, Trump also signaled that the two leaders settled issues over China's rare earth mineral exports. He also says the two discussed computer chips and China's purchase of U.S. soybeans. And so I'm not sure what other tools the President has necessarily to try and impose his will on China. So I think in some senses, we're at a bit of a stalemate here because neither side can land a decisive blow on the other without doing great damage to themselves as well.
- [12:34]
Jamie Poisson
Yeah. You know, I couldn't help but notice earlier in the week, on Monday, this list of kind of a who's who of business and tech leaders who will be joining Trump on the trip. Seventeen chief executives in total. Apple CEO Tim Cook, Elon Musk, Larry Fink of BlackRock, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. What does that say to you about what the US Is hoping to accomplish in this summit?
- [13:00]
Jonathan Chang
Well, at some level, it shows that there's still hope that there are profits to be made in China. I think there was a time when China was seen as a bit of an El Dorado, a great place where American businesses, if only they were permitted to get into China and have a level playing field, would make millions and millions and billions and billions of dollars. And yet that hasn't really panned out. I mean, certainly fortunes have been made in China, don't get me wrong. But certainly I think that froth, that sort of enthusiasm had faded in recent years. And of course, China has a lot of its own homegrown competitors now. And yet there is still a lot of hope there. And you can see a lot of financial services companies there, certainly technology with Apple and Elon Musk there. And of course, Elon Musk is a fascinating character himself because he did have such a close tie with the US President, but also he's done a lot of business in China. He's very, very well liked by the Chinese who do trust him, and he has their trust as well, or he has had it. And so it'll be interesting to see what sort of role he plays in, in terms of trying to bridge these two powers.
- [14:16]
Jamie Poisson
Not so friendly reminder that no one who's actually good at their job is the office bully, like at all. But we can handle that. For all of the no fluff advice for getting ahead in your career without losing your mind, listen to Clock in with Emily Durham wherever you get your podcasts. Do you have any sense of anything concrete that might come out of it? I mean, I mean, I know people are talking about deals with Boeing, US Beef and soybeans, this kind of stuff. What kind of tangible agreements might we expect?
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Jonathan Chang
Yeah, I think those are probably the most likely ones, the ones that you've checked off there, because those are the lowest hanging fruits. Those are the ones that would be beneficial to both sides. It would be relatively easy. You could slap a big number on it in terms of the number of dollars involved and all the rest of it. There are other things. You know, the Chinese would certainly like to be able to set up manufacturing facilities in the US A lot of people on the Republican side of the aisle are not crazy about that idea. There is a lot of concern there. We saw with the deal that Mark Carney, the prime minister, made to have Chinese electric vehicles come into Canada, just a very small number of them. But even that was something that caused a lot of controversy, both within Canada, but also with the White House as well. And so this notion of letting the Chinese get more market access in North America, whether it be Canada or the US Is a hot button issue. And I wonder if that will come up or whether that's something that's just going to be too difficult for the two sides to be able to iron out.
- [15:51]
Jamie Poisson
Yeah. And I mean, not to repeat to you, but just to pause on that, there's this huge backlash from the mega world because, of course, the Trump administration, even in their first term, campaigned on bringing manufacturing back to the United States and having facilities owned by the United States. So the idea that they would allow China to Go and invest in manufacturing facilities in the United States seems completely antithetical to anything that they've been arguing for a decade now.
- [16:24]
Jonathan Chang
Right, right. But of course, you have Donald Trump sitting at the top of the, of the Republican Party and the top of the US Government who has said he's, he said publicly that he thinks it'd be a great idea. Now he's also suggested the opposite. We'll kind of see where things go. It looks like there may be some time where Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will perhaps get some one on one time. I wonder if this is going to be the sort of thing that might come up. But there's a long list of issues, not just commercial issues, political issues, military issues, diplomatic issues between the two countries. So if they do get someone on one time, if they have a limited amount of time together, what is going to be at the very top of the agenda? That's really what we would all love to know.
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Jamie Poisson
What about AI? I've been seeing lots of reports that both sides want to have some pretty high level discussions around AI. Like what? What might we be expecting on that front?
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Jonathan Chang
Yeah, I mean, the Wall Street Journal has reported that this is potentially a topic in the mix. This is not something that has been confirmed publicly yet. I think it's certainly a notion that is gaining traction because I think all of us around the world, we're all starting to see the potential pitfalls of AI if we start to see it especially develop rapidly in military capabilities and so on, and how it could be used not just for good, but also for ill. And so there's definitely a market there for some sort of discussion. At the same time, this really comes back to a question of trust. And I think trust is something that has been in short supply between Beijing and Washington over the past few years. And I don't know, I mean, certainly it would help to build trust to have some sort of a deal here, but it also requires a lot of trust to be able to get to that point, because I think both sides want to make sure that they're constraining the other side, but nobody wants to constrain their own side. And so that's sort of where the catch is.
- [18:19]
Jamie Poisson
What do people say a deal could even potentially look like? Like what are we talking about here? Are we talking about establishing emergency channels when it comes to AI to sort of share information about the dangers? Are we talking about something else?
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Jonathan Chang
Yeah, no, I think it could involve that some rules of the road, some communication channels, some sort of protocols, certainly just an understanding of what would be a red line for either side. And I think there is a sense, of course, that AI is something that might get out of control, might get beyond either government's control. What would we do in that sort of a contingency? You know, I think in many ways it mirrors concerns that we've had for decades now over nuclear weapons. And so I think there's probably a template to be taken from nuclear arms reduction talks, although that's a different thing in many ways as well. And so it's not a perfect analogy, but perhaps that's a template that they could start with. And certainly there's a precedent there for countries even on the opposite side of an ideological divide, to be able to have those sort of conversations, just as the US did with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
- [19:26]
Jamie Poisson
Not to belabor the point, but how likely is it that collaboration between the two countries would happen, given how they're both so invested in the global AI race?
- [19:39]
Jonathan Chang
I think if it even is put on the agenda and they do spend time talking about it, I think that would probably already be realistically about as much as you could ask for. I don't know that they're going to have a comprehensive statement that comes out laying out all the ways that they're going to collaborate and cooperate. And I mean, look, so much of what we see in the AI debate, even in the west, is based on very different views of how. How quick development is happening, how dangerous might be. I think it's such a moving target that with these two countries that have had such a contentious relationship on so many other issues, it's going to be a really difficult thing to come out with some sort of. A very, very detailed sort of list of things that they've agreed upon. I just. I don't really see that happening.
- [20:37]
Jamie Poisson
You talked about military issues that will be on the table, too, in addition to Iran. I want to ask you about Taiwan, which Beijing claims to be part of China. It's expected to come up during this summit. The war in the Middle east has diverted US Military assets from Asia, and that has Taiwan, Japan and other US partners in the region worried about America's capacity to intervene and case of a Chinese attack. I suppose they are also worried about whether this administration would even have the will to intervene. And how likely is it, you think that Taiwan will come up in the talks?
- [21:11]
Jonathan Chang
I think it's almost a certainty that Taiwan will come up because the Chinese want to make sure it comes up and therefore it will. I think, you know, the main point to make here, just by way of background, is that the official U.S. policy for decades through both Democratic and Republican administrations has been this policy of strategic ambiguity, this sense that we're not going to tell anyone whether or not we're going to get involved if there is a conflict over Taiwan, and that's served American interests. Well, I think the concern here is that Donald Trump is more concerned with making a general deal, that he may swap some of these assurances or some of this ambiguity in exchange for something else. I don't know that that would be the case, but certainly that is a concern. And of course, Donald Trump would call himself a master deal maker. And so that's the whole point here. If you're making a deal, you're going to be able to horse trade. You might swap one thing for another thing. And so if there's a sense that Taiwan is lower on the priority list for Donald Trump and higher on the priority list for Xi Jinping, then maybe China is able to make some sort of a move and get some sort of a concession on Taiwan. That I think there are many people who would be concerned about what that would mean for Taiwan, and not just for Taiwan, but if China were to be able to seize or take over Taiwan, what would that mean for the rest of the region? Now, those are very big questions, and you're not going to get into all of that here. But that's the concern here, that there may be a deal and certainly there's very little appetite in America right now for another conflict, and certainly not one against China, the only country that can really come close to rivaling American military
- [22:48]
Jamie Poisson
might on these two men in particular, President Trump says that he has a great relationship with Xi.
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Donald Trump
Look, I have a great relationship with President Xi. We're doing a lot of business, but it smart business. We used to be taken advantage of for years with our previous presidents, and now we're doing great with China. We make a lot of money with China.
- [23:06]
Jamie Poisson
He posted on True Social last month that, quote, president Xi will give me a big fat hug when I get there in a few weeks. And just, you know, what should we expect when it comes to the personal dynamics here between these two men?
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Jonathan Chang
I think Donald Trump does have respect for Xi Jinping. He said it a lot.
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Donald Trump
I'll tell you what, look, I respect him a lot, and hopefully he respects me. He didn't respect our previous government, that I can tell you.
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Jonathan Chang
Respect for how he's able to oversee a country of 1.4 billion people. That's a Lot of people. That's many, many multiples the number of people in the US and to be able to do it with very little political opposition. Now we know how China is able to do that. We know how Xi Jinping is able to do that. It's because it's not an electoral democracy. It's not a system like the US Or Canada that values and prioritizes open debate, open disagreement, this sort of thing. So there is a sense of respect that I think translates to a picture of strength. And so I think he does see Xi Jinping as a strong leader. And he is a strong leader on many levels. There's no question about that. And so if you have this sort of respect bordering almost on admiration, I think that that gives you a lot that you can work with in terms of a personal rapport. It is also possibly a pitfall as well. It may blind you or may lead you either to overestimate or underestimate the other.
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Jamie Poisson
If you could try to boil down for me what you think the purpose of this visit really is, right, because I think a lot of people will have listened to this president over the last 10 years be quite bullish towards China and talk about needing to contain China.
- [25:06]
Donald Trump
We can't continue to allow China to rape our country. They're taking our business, they're taking our jobs. China's wonderful, but they're getting away with murder.
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Jamie Poisson
And now here he is back in the country looking to make deals around airplanes and, and beef, and he's bringing all of these kind of high profile business guys with him. And so is this like a rapprochement? Like, how would you describe it? A cooling?
- [25:38]
Jonathan Chang
Yeah, yeah. I think, you know, the word that you'll hear come out of the White House and I think to a certain extent out of Beijing as well, is stabilization. I think there's a lot of chaos right now, a lot of it brought about by Donald Trump himself. But I think there's a sense that things may be on the verge of kind of spilling out of control here. And so I think when it comes to a country like China that is so big, that is so militarily capable and technologically capable and economically capable, I think there's a real sense here that we don't want to have friction or more friction between the two largest economies in the world at a time when we already have open conflict in Russia, Ukraine, in and around Israel, certainly with Iran now and the Strait of Hormuz and the entire Middle east just on the foreign stage, nevermind domestically in the US, which Donald Trump has to also be thinking a lot about. I think there's a sense certainly from the President that perhaps we don't want to escalate things right now with China. And I think on China's side, I think that they are generally concerned about what Donald Trump might do. He would go places that no other president would. In my mind, this is not based on any conversation I've had with Xi Jinping per se, but I think there is a sense that perhaps we can wait out this president. He's got two years and change to go. Let's see how the midterm elections go. But if he's bogged down with other parts of the world, I think that would be just fine with the Chinese, because the Chinese have their five year plans and they've been working on them and they have been busily fortifying their country from external threats, primarily from the US And I think that we will start to see their ambitions start to become even more manifest. In the meantime, I think the name of the game for both sides is, as I said, stabilization.
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Jamie Poisson
Yeah. And just given all of that, do you think it's fair to say that China has more leverage than the US Going into these talks?
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Jonathan Chang
I don't know that I would say more leverage than the US Per se. I mean, that's obviously impossible to measure, and it depends on what you prioritize and all the rest of it. I think we can definitely say, though, more leverage than the last time they met in 2017, more leverage than perhaps even during the Biden years. Yes. I think that the way that China has made these preparations, laid the groundwork for it to be more impervious to external threats, whether they be economic, military, political or otherwise. But also it positions them to be able to take advantage when they see an opportunity. And so if they see an opportunity, I think if Donald Trump shows up in Beijing and he's willing to have a one on one conversation with Xi Jinping and willing to talk about things like Taiwan and, you know, to think outside of the orthodoxy of how his predecessors have thought about Taiwan, then I think there will be an opportunity there for China to perhaps pounce and see what they can do and push their luck a little bit, I think both sides are probably coming at this with a great deal of respect for the other side and care for the other side. I mean, for the Chinese, they may feel like they have the wind at their back, but the US Is still the world's dominant superpower in every respect. And they need to respect that, too.
- [29:04]
Jamie Poisson
Jonathan, thanks so much for this. Really appreciate it.
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Jonathan Chang
Yeah, it was really fun being here.
- [29:16]
Jamie Poisson
All right, that's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.
- [29:32]
Jonathan Chang
For more cbc podcasts, go to cbc ca podcasts.