Where's the fight to keep Canada together?

Summary

Front Burner (CBC): "Where's the fight to keep Canada together?"

Host: Jason Markusoff (in for Jayme Poisson)
Guest: Richard Warnica, Senior Opinion Writer, Toronto Star
Date: August 4, 2026

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Overview

This episode dives into the looming Alberta independence referendum and the notable silence from major political figures on the stakes of Canadian unity. Host Jason Markusoff and journalist Richard Warnica explore why federalist voices have been muted, what energizes the separatist side, and what the consequences could be—both for Alberta and the rest of Canada—if unity advocates fail to step up.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Fringe Movements Gone Mainstream (02:03 – 03:42)

• Warnica relates his experience covering the early days of Donald Trump’s political rise in the U.S. to the current Alberta separatist debate.
  • “The assumption that an idea that seems relegated to a fringe cannot come true in politics just doesn't seem rational to me anymore.” (Warnica, 02:43)
• There is pervasive complacency among federalists who believe the separatist movement is a passing fad, reminiscent of early Trump coverage.
• Enthusiasm gap: separatist supporters are highly motivated (“will crawl over broken glass to vote”) compared to the “let’s get this over with” malaise among federalists.

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2. Political Leaders’ Reluctance & Calculations (04:07 – 05:33; 13:10 – 16:56)

• Despite the high stakes, neither PM Mark Carney nor Alberta Premier Danielle Smith talk much about the referendum, preferring to spotlight “Canada working together” themes (i.e., pipelines, housing).
  • Danielle Smith is seen as the architect, having made it easier for separatists to get a question on the ballot and welcoming their voices into the United Conservative Party.
  • “She is the driving force, in my opinion, behind this entire process. And yet three months out from it, […] it seemed like she would want to talk about anything else…” (Warnica, 04:49)
• Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s response is seen as tepid, as he attempts to respect both sides without forcefully advocating for unity.
  • “He seems to be as much, if not more interested in placating separatists who also may be conservatives, as in forcefully speaking up for the idea that Canada should stay united no matter what.” (Warnica, 09:31)
• Doug Ford sidesteps uncomfortable questions about Smith’s motivations, providing distractions instead of candid answers.
  • “It was like, I swear to you, it felt like I’d asked them about their sex lives...they’re hissing at me...this is about pipelines.” (Warnica, 14:19)

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3. Motivation and Tactics of the Federalist (“Stay”) Side (05:33 – 12:12; 16:56 – 21:11)

• Complacency and Lack of Firepower

  • Many pro-Canada organizers and strategists, like Stephen Carter, express deep frustration: donors are hesitant to publicly contribute, fearing reprisal from Smith’s government.
  • “We aren’t raising enough money. We don’t have the kind of organization we need.” (Warnica, 20:08)
  • Carter’s clients privately worry about the vote but downplay it publicly.

• Polling and Worries about Turnout

  • Even though polls suggest a comfortable lead for “No” (to separation), federalists are worried about turnout and whether they can mobilize moderate supporters.
  • Conservative Party of Canada possesses the most effective voter ID and GOTV (get-out-the-vote) machinery in Alberta, but it remains unclear if they’ll wield it hard for unity.

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4. The Alberta Separatist (“Leave”) Campaign (21:11 – 28:26)

• Increased Energy, Organization, and Funding

  • The Leave side, led by figures like Keith Wilson (legally-trained, serious), has out-fundraised the stay side by a wide margin.
  • “We’ve raised over a quarter of a million dollars…we’re up against massive forces here…” (Keith Wilson, 21:59)
  • The campaign is shifting from signature gathering with fiery, sometimes conspiratorial figures (Mitch Sylvester) to a public phase led by more mainstream, disciplined organizers.
  • Even supporters facing personal crisis remain institutionally engaged (“Every day, either until the election or until he dies, handing out signs…” Warnica, 23:05)

• Colorful Leaders and Messaging

  • Mitch Sylvester vocalizes conspiracy theories and deep mistrust:
    • “He talked about how he knows that Chinese Communist soldiers are in Canada because he saw Chinese looking men in West Edmonton Mall in new winter clothes.” (Warnica, 25:18)
    • Directly accuses the federal government of siphoning wealth to the monarchy.
  • Campaign includes more moderate voices (Keith Wilson) who focus on perennial grievances: transfer payments, lack of political influence in Ottawa.

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5. What Could Shift the Outcome? (28:26 – 33:00)

• Potential Catalysts for “Yes” Surge

  • External shocks: sharp drop in oil prices, low voter turnout (“municipal election-level turnout”), or emergence of a charismatic separatist akin to Brexit or Quebec referenda.
  • “If we get 35% turnout, we know 80 to 90% of their 20 or 25 are going to be there. So what does that mean for our side?” (Warnica, 28:53)

• Federalist Response and Risks

  • Some speculate that higher-profile figures (e.g., Stephen Harper) might eventually join the fray but worry this could be too little, too late if a surge occurs close to voting day.
  • “If this becomes a defining fault line in Alberta politics the way it has in Quebec politics, I think that's tremendously damaging, not just Alberta, but for all of Canada.” (Warnica, 32:14)
  • Repeated normalization of separatism as a “default angry response” risks embedding division into Alberta and national politics long term.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On False Security:
  • “Every one of those [federalist] people who tells you not to worry is calling the next morning and telling the campaign manager: 'I don't have to be worried about this, right? I don't have to be worried?'”
    – Warnica, paraphrasing Stephen Carter, 20:08
• On the Reluctance to Speak Out:
  • “Doug Ford, when posed with that question, where he’d have to say something maybe negative about Daniel Smith, showed you a literal shiny object—his belt buckle.”
    – Markusoff, 16:12
• On Motivation:
  • “A small minority of people, when they are deeply, deeply motivated, can achieve a lot of things in politics.”
    – Warnica, 23:05
• Separatist Messaging:
  • “Do you see the emergency that I see? […] The only way that we're going to win this is if everybody goes to work really, really hard.”
    – Mitch Sylvester, 25:01
• Colorful Allegations:
  • “He told me...he knows that Chinese Communist soldiers are in Canada because he saw Chinese looking men in West Edmonton Mall in new winter clothes.”
    – Warnica, 25:18
• On Long-Term Dangers:
  • “If this becomes a defining fault line in Alberta politics the way it has in Quebec politics, I think that's tremendously damaging, not just Alberta, but for all of Canada.”
    – Warnica, 32:14

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Important Timestamps

• 02:03 – Trump parallels; federalist complacency.
• 04:07 – Carney and Smith avoid referendum talk; Smith’s role in mainstreaming separatism.
• 05:46 – Federalist tactical advice and warnings (Stephen Carter).
• 09:01 – Poilievre’s centrist and diplomatic approach.
• 13:33 – Doug Ford sidesteps referendum questions with distractions.
• 16:56 – Possible reasons for leaders’ reticence; importance of local leaders' vocalism.
• 20:08 – Federalist strategist’s frustrations with lack of support.
• 21:59 – “Leave” fundraising and morale described.
• 24:30 – “Leave” messaging shifts—from conspiracy to franchise.
• 28:53 – What could tip the vote, turnout risks.
• 32:14 – Warning about normalization and future dangers of separatism.

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Conclusion

Despite the highest-stakes challenge to Canadian unity in a generation, many key federal and provincial leaders are publicly silent, wary, or tentative. The highly motivated, energized separatist campaign is contrasted with a quiet, even complacent federalist response worried about complacency and lacking visible, organized support. All eyes are on turnout, campaign strategy, and a narrow window for either side's momentum to shift—leaving the outcome, though likely, far from certain.

“A small minority of people, when they are deeply, deeply motivated, can achieve a lot in politics. And the Alberta separatists are not that small compared to some of the groups that have achieved relatively unpopular things.”
– Richard Warnica, 23:05

Transcript

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[Richard Warnica]

This is a CBC podcast.

[Jason Markusoff]

Hi, I'm Jason Markosoff. In this week for Jamie. Last week, the prime minister of this country and the premier who's holding a referendum on whether or not her province should vote on leaving this country, they held a press conference together. And while national unity was mentioned in Alberta, across Canada, we're strongest together, united, focused, working towards the same goals, making better lives for all our citizens. The idea that Alberta is going to the polls to vote on a question of separation and soon didn't come up in their prepared remarks. It seems like Canada's most prominent politicians don't want to talk much about Alberta separatism these days, despite the fact that the stakes are so high and that the vote is less than three months away. So today I'm talking to Richard Warnicka. He's a senior opinion writer with the Toronto Star, and he's been reporting on the campaigns to separate and to stay. We're going to talk about why one's louder than the other and what that might mean for the future of this country. Hi, Richard.

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Hey, Jason.

[Richard Warnica]

Thanks for having me.

[Jason Markusoff]

So some listeners might think on first blush, like, why is a journalist like me who lives and covers Alberta politics intervening a Toronto Star writer about Alberta? So, first of all, let's establish you grew up here in Alberta. I didn't. And you've covered this province with the Edmonton Journal before this. You've also done a lot of journalism in the US following the rise and resurgence of Trump. How does that reporting inform your coverage of the separatist debate?

[Richard Warnica]

I was set down to cover the Iowa caucuses in 2016, which was the first time Trump faced voters. And the instructions from my editor, and the instructions made sense at the time, was, don't spend too much time on Donald Trump. This story will be over in a couple weeks. And 10 years later, I'm still covering that story. And what I have heard over and over in Calgary is a sense from federalists that this story will be over soon. Why are we paying attention to it? And I am getting deja vu.

[Keith Wilson]

How so?

[Richard Warnica]

In the sense that I think that the Assumption that an idea that seems relegated to a fringe cannot come true in politics just doesn't seem rational to me anymore. I think the odds are very high that the, the no side will win this referendum. I think all polls indicate that Janet Brown, when it was worked with cbc, most respected Alberta pollster, her numbers have stayed really solid. But I do think that the enthusiasm gap is such that we could see some, some real interesting things with turnout that could make this vote quite different from, from what we're looking at in terms of the polls. Because, you know, it was Jason Kenney who told me the separatists will crawl over broken glass to vote in this referendum. And I think a significant share of federalists just can't wait for this to be over and are hoping for it to be over.

[Jason Markusoff]

So let's get into that. Let's take us to Red Deer, Alberta, where last week Mark Carney, the Prime Minister, was there alongside Danielle Smith, the Premier of Alberta. And they didn't have much, they're making an announcement, but they didn't have much to say about the referendum. He was also at the much bigger political spectacle, the stampede. And you were there too. Can you remind us, did Carney have much more to say about the referendum at that point?

[Richard Warnica]

I don't believe so. But Smith is the interesting one to me because she, she's been the architect of this entire process. She lowered the threshold for signatures required to get on the ballot. She has has welcomed in separatists into the United Conservative Party. And even when courts put a hold on the independence process and their independence question, she then went out of her way to put a question on a question on the ballot.

[Court Ruling Narrator]

Proposed referendum question does not directly trigger separation, but if successful would ask Alberta's government to commence the legal process necessary to hold a binding referendum on the matter. The recent court ruling would not be applicable.

[Richard Warnica]

So she is the driving force, in my opinion, behind this entire process. And yet three months out from it, when I was in Calgary, it seemed like she would want to talk about anything else and especially talk about pipeline success, MOU success, new relationship with Ottawa. This isn't Justin Trudeau's government anymore.

[Jason Markusoff]

Ye strikes me that on one level, both Xi and Carney seem to be less interested in talking necessarily about it because they're both on the same side of this debate. Officially on the stay side, but they are making announcements. The pipeline announcement earlier in July, this housing announcement, what do you make of that? As a strategy not to be talking about either of them, but more showing that Canada can work Together, if we cooperate.

[Richard Warnica]

Yeah. So a couple things. One, to be fair to the Liberals, Corey Hogan, Calgary mp, has been very vocal, very public, very out there talking about his opposition, not just to the vote, but I think to the process as well.

[Stephen Carter]

There are many arguments for separation you're going to hear put forward many, frankly absurd, such as the idea it would be easier somehow to get a pipeline to the coast if the coast were not ours. Encourage critical thinking and be critical yourself. And to those you run into who might think separatism creates leverage, I'd encourage you to tell them two things. First, the bank of Montreal is headquartered in Toronto for a reason. This is a dangerous game. Second, don't bet or bluff with something you can't afford to lose.

[Richard Warnica]

I think. I think a couple different things. I think. One, I was out in February in Edmonton, in rural Alberta, in Calgary, reporting on this story. And I do think in that sort of frustrated federalist world of business community, people of potential centrist, I almost think of them as old Ralph Klein, Progressive Conservatives. I think there was a different attitude about Ottawa, certainly. I think that in that community, in the oil and gas community, in the Stampede Party circuit community, are feeling night and day toward the federal government under Mark Carney as that they thought under Justin Trudeau. What I would say, however, though, is I maintain that this process was not driven by those concerns. It did not originate from those concerns. There have always been separatists in Alberta. They were driven into the mainstream, in this case not primarily by oil and gas concerns, environmental concerns, but as an outgrowth of trucker convoy movement from COVID 19.

[Jason Markusoff]

So if that's where the movement comes from, in your. In your view, is that a movement that you think that Carney, as a Liberal leader, as a prime minister, can combat?

[Richard Warnica]

I don't think Carney's the right messenger. I think this is an enormous opportunity for Pierre Paliev. I don't know if it's an opportunity for him politically. I think it's an opportunity for him personally. I think it's an opportunity where he could speak to those people with real authority and tell them, I understand why you're upset. I understand what it has been like to go through this. But this stuff is not the answer.

[Pierre Poilievre]

We should not just tell Albertans how bad it would be to have separation. Let's instead talk about how great it can be if our country is truly united.

[Mitch Sylvester]

Poilievre argues Alberta's separatist movement is born

[Richard Warnica]

of anger at federal government policies, not the idea of Canada itself.

[Pierre Poilievre]

You don't need a federal government to put up a stop sign, approve a mine, build a road or a hospital that is only inside one province. You do need it to clear the way for a railway or a pipeline that crosses many provinces.

[Richard Warnica]

I don't think there's a figure in Canada who could speak with more authority than that than Mr. Poliev. And I have no idea what that would mean for his short term political success. But I think it would be legacy defining for him. I think it would be the most important thing he could do in public life and the most important thing he. He could do in his career. That said, I'm. I'm. I'm not confident that he will do that.

[Jason Markusoff]

So you saw him here during the Cal stampede. You know, he was talking about separatism.

[Pierre Poilievre]

We will unite our people and our country around our common values, common history, common bonds and common sense. We will fight for the country. We'll fight for Canada, including in the upcoming referendum, to win back Albertans. To win back Albertans through hope. Not by wagging our fingers or lecturing them, nor am I threatening. We will be respectful to people on both sides of this debate. There are legitimate points of view to go around.

[Jason Markusoff]

From what you have heard of what he said, what's your take?

[Richard Warnica]

My take is that he seems to be as much, if not more interested in placating separatists who also may be conservatives, as in forcefully speaking up for the idea that Canada should stay united no matter what.

[Pierre Poilievre]

While I have been very clear that, that I will always stand for a united Canada, we will always be willing to listen to the views and address the legitimate concerns of people who are involved in this debate. We want to ensure that when this is all over, we will once again be fully united as citizens of a common land dedicated to a common purpose of restoring the promise of this country.

[Richard Warnica]

I was there for that speech. To me, it felt exactly like being in one of his speeches in the last federal election, many of which I saw. And I went into that speech wondering if we're going to see not the same old Pierre Poliev delivering the same old kind of liberals are bad speech and say something not just about the referendum, but about the process that led to it and about the idea that to change federal policies, you win federal elections, you don't pick up your province and go home. And it was. It was just so more of the same, you know? And as an Albertan, frankly, I was disappointed. Like I think that. I really think that he could have an authority with those supporters and could do some of the healing probably required in our broader polity of the divisions after Covid and I think this would be an excellent opportunity for him and I, I just don't think he has it in him.

[Pierre Poilievre]

They say if you stand in a the prairie field and listen, listen to the wind whistle, you can hear the voices of our ancestors and you can use your imagination as to what they're saying. What I hear when I listen to those voices is that making Canada was hard. So we should never give up.

[Ned Nenshi]

Foreign.

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[Jason Markusoff]

See terms while we're talking about conservative politicians, talking about separatism or not, while you were in Calgary and I was in the room with you, there was a Doug Ford announcement of this proposed potential future pipeline with Danielle Smith and you and asked him about the issue. It was really, really striking. So could you describe it a bit for us?

[Richard Warnica]

Yeah, I mean I'd love to hear your point of view because from my Perspective. It was not. It was a fairly obvious and fairly innocuous question. When Premier Smith announced the referendum in May, Doug Ford was asked about it. And Ford said he's fully against it.

[Doug Ford]

I'd never do it. Premier Smith knows how I feel. She wants to, you know, I guess protect her 30% base. It's not going to win as far as I'm concerned. It'd be a disaster.

[Richard Warnica]

So they're appearing in this room together a couple months out from this, and I literally asked him, premier Ford, you said back in May that Premier Smith was putting an independence question on the ballot to protect her 30% base. Have you two spoken about the referendum?

[Doug Ford]

Let me talk about that. I think the world of Premier Smith, first of all.

[Richard Warnica]

And it was like, I swear to you, it felt like I'd asked them about their sex lines. There was a row of political staffers and MPs and all the like on one wall. And they're hissing at me. You know, one guy, yo, see red star. And another, this is about pipelines. And Premier Ford sort of half answers the question.

[Doug Ford]

Let me cut to the chase here. The previous federal government, not this one, the previous federal government, treated Alberta like garbage, like terrible. I've never seen anything as bad as that. So I know that Premier Smith wants a proud, sovereign Alberta part of Canada. And again, we're there to support her.

[Richard Warnica]

Then I don't get my follow up. I'm still waiting for my follow up. And he starts yanking off his belt.

[Doug Ford]

Since it's a tradition, I have a new Ford Nation belt. I'm not going to whip it off right here, but I am going to give you the new coordination buckle.

[Richard Warnica]

Oh, there you go. And I'm like, what on earth is happening here? And it took me a couple beats to realize that he was in fact just trying to give Premier Smith his belt buckle. Now, Jason, you've been covering Calgary a lot longer than me. You've covered a lot of stampedes. My understanding is the proper way to give someone a belt buckle is to bring a spare.

[Stephen Carter]

Correct.

[Richard Warnica]

Not to yank your own pants.

[Jason Markusoff]

Correct.

[Doug Ford]

Fabulous.

[Court Ruling Narrator]

So amazing.

[Doug Ford]

There you go.

[Court Ruling Narrator]

I don't have the ability to put my knee.

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Yeah.

[Richard Warnica]

Thank you.

[Doug Ford]

Swinging around like that or anything.

[Court Ruling Narrator]

Well, and I understood that he was looking around for his Alberta belt buckle everywhere, trying to find it. And so I got him a replacement. So he always has a backup.

[Doug Ford]

Thank you.

[Court Ruling Narrator]

And I don't want his pants to fall down. So now he's got a belt buckle to hold him up.

[Jason Markusoff]

Yeah, it, it. Two things struck me about that, that whole episode. One is Doug Ford, when posed with that question, where he'd have to say something maybe negative about Daniel Smith, showed you a literal shiny object, his belt buckle. I mean, that's a textbook. That's a literal version of the normal distraction a politician might give. And it also makes me wonder, in the same way that when Mark Carney is next to Danielle Smith, he doesn't say, I think this is an unwise decision, what she's doing. But broadly speaking, you're painting this picture of political leaders who might be expected to campaign loudly on behalf of Canada unity, but being pretty quiet about it, broadly speaking. Why do you think that is?

[Richard Warnica]

I do want to say I think there are some leaders who are standing up. I think Calgary Mayor Jeremy Farkas has been very vocal. We must come together and reject division and reject instability. This is our time to make a case for Canada because we know we are better together. I think it's probably cost him some support in some circles, I think. I have disagreed with former Premier Jason Kenney on a lot of things politically over the years. I think his leadership and his speaking out on this issue has been admirable and it's been patriotic, quite frankly, A

[Ned Nenshi]

lot of people just find this whole thing unpleasant. And everybody knows someone they're related to or at work who is on the other side, which is one of the reasons this is just so dang regrettable. You know, we are Canadians, we're polite. We don't like having uncomfortable political arguments. And what could be more emotional than tearing the country apart? So I think a lot of people have just been downplaying, ignoring it. And I'm sorry, I, for one, do not think that the people trying to destroy our country and wreck Alberta's economy should be getting a passage on this.

[Richard Warnica]

I think that it is not resonating whatsoever. And I think it's a big problem. But NDP leader, you could never accuse Albert, NDP leader Ned Nenshi of not speaking out about this issue. More broadly, I think. I think that Prime Minister Carney is very motivated by the idea of getting things done. And I think he comes from a business world where you work with the partners that are there. You don't pick your partners. And I think he probably sees in Danielle Smith someone who can help him get things done in the short term, and that's his priority. I suspect that if we were to see a poll with the numbers currently into the high 30s for yes, for let's have another vote, we might see some people speak more loudly I would love to know. You know, the number one concern, I'm sure you've heard this from everybody and their dog on the Federalist side is they're worried about voter turnout. Well, the Conservative Party of Canada has an incredible voters list in Alberta. They have incredible resources for voter identification and for getting out the vote. Are we going to see them employ those resources? They certainly have a better voter ID voter turnout operation in Alberta than the federal Liberals or the provincial ndp. Can we expect to see them getting people to the polls and not just saying, I respect every side. Let's have a nice chat. Let's, let's make this country work. But we're going to put our organization where our mouth is and we're going to be making sure that Johnny and Bashaw, who believes in Canada, is getting to the polls.

[Jason Markusoff]

You're writing about this conversation with a pro Canada political strategist who told you that people who are reaching out to him quietly are like, I don't have to worry.

[Ned Nenshi]

Right.

[Jason Markusoff]

You got this. How, how did he feel about what he was hearing?

[Richard Warnica]

Yeah, this is Stephen Carter, who is very well known to Albertans as a political strategist. And he's, he's running a third party advertising group. And he was really frustrated because I was at an event with him talking to people and everyone's coming up to me and they're saying, I'm not too worried about it and I'm not too worried about it. My clients aren't concerned, concerned it's going to go away soon. And the next morning I had breakfast with Stephen and very colorful language, language I couldn't use on the cbc, says those same people are the ones calling me every day saying, stephen, I don't have to worry about this. Right? I don't have to worry. And he's like, you should be worried. Like, we aren't raising enough money. We don't have the kind of organization we need. And the other thing he would say is, okay, you're worried. Write me a check. And he said that people have explicitly told him they don't want to write checks because they don't want their name showing up in the donor list because whatever she says about it publicly, they think they will be seen by Danielle Smith and her government as opposing a process she started if they're donating money to the Stephen Carters of the world.

[Jason Markusoff]

So that's one, one reason for the worry gap. The other reason's gotta be the polls. These polls. I mean, it's, yeah, of course, 20 to 25%. Some of them are maybe 27%, maybe up to 30. But despite that, Richard, the separatists don't appear to be too discouraged. Right. I mean, we'll get into some of their leaders in a moment, but first tell me your impression about how the leave campaign is going.

[Richard Warnica]

Yeah, I mean, the leave campaign seems to be shifting to a very different phase than during the signature drive to get a petition. At that point you had the likes of Jeffrey Rath, the likes of Mitch Sylvester out there every day doing these, these community town halls. It's sort of shifted now where I think you've got a guy, Keith Wilson, who seems to be, I think he's a bit more of a serious operator.

[Keith Wilson]

We've done remarkable on the fundraising. We're over, we're just about a month into it now and we've raised over a quarter of a million dollars. But we're up against massive forces here that are, have unrestricted funds being the government's that are fighting us and the other side and the unions that have now joined the fight. So if.

[Richard Warnica]

And he is raising way more money than any of the, any of the federalists. His group led Alberta to the side, had, I think, five times as much as the top stay group raised. And you know, I saw him at Stampede and he's, he's at all these events and there's no one coming up to him saying, we hate you. You know what I mean? Like, and he, you know, at least he's the one telling me that he's going to these events and quietly, conservatives are going up to him saying, we like what you're doing. We like what you're doing.

[Keith Wilson]

One of the things I heard from a lot of people was this was their first time coming out to an event like this. And that's what we're trying to do. We're trying to reach out to people who are new to the independence movement, who, who haven't previously been to town halls and those types of things. So it was a really exciting.

[Richard Warnica]

I still think, like, it would be the greatest miss in polling history if Leave won this, but I think that that is not stopping the people who want this from fighting with everything they've got. You know, I spent some time off the side of 16th Avenue in Northeast Calgary with a guy who told me he's got three kinds of cancer and intends to spend every day, either until the election or until he dies, handing out signs and taking donations. A very colorful guy with quite the backstory, but I believe he's 100% sincere in that. And he's not the only person who feels that way. And I think a small minority of people, when they are deeply, deeply motivated, can achieve a lot of things in politics. And the Alberta separatists are not that small compared to some of the groups that have achieved relatively unpopular things.

[Jason Markusoff]

So you're talking about a bunch of different characters there. Mitch Sylvester is somebody you spoke to earlier this year when you were visiting in February. He said a lot to you. Can you tell me a little, just really quickly, what struck you about what he said and how he came across?

[Richard Warnica]

Yeah, I met Mitch in Edmonton. We had coffee and then I followed him around the province for a bit and watched his sort of stock presentation on, on why we should leave. And, you know, I've been covering Trump rallies for 10 years. I've, I've spoken to a ton of Trump supporters. I've heard some wild stuff. I was stunned by some of the things that Mitch Sylvester was saying to me, and not just to me, but quite frankly, some elements of the presentation he was making as he was drumming up signatures.

[Mitch Sylvester]

Do you see the emergency that I see? Because that's what I see. I see an emergency. I see that we're only going to have one chance to do this, and the only way that we're going to win this is if everybody goes to work really, really hard. And we better work hard before April.

[Richard Warnica]

We are in a small town. And he talked about how he knows that Chinese Communist soldiers are in Canada because he saw Chinese looking men in West Edmonton Mall in new winter clothes. He told me, you know, five minutes into meeting him that, you know, I asked him what changed? Why separation? And he said, well, the Liberals, they're stealing everything we've got and everything we can borrow. And I got a pretty good idea where it's going. And I asked him, where do you think it's going? And he tells me the king. And I thought he was joking and he made it very clear that he was not in fact joking. And he didn't want to say it out loud because he said he didn't want to get shot. So this was not the exception. You know, I, I spent a long time after coming home sort of meticulously fact checking the things Mitch told me one on one, and the things he told, I think it's fair to say, hundreds of thousands of Albertans as he crisscrossed the province. And it was overwhelmingly distorted or flat out wrong. And to an extent that I was shocked to hear from someone as tied in with a mainstream political movement because he's not just a leader of the independence movement. He's a constituency president for the ucp. He's a major fundraiser for the party. He will tell you that him and his supporters are the ones who put Danielle Smith over the top and made her premier.

[Jason Markusoff]

What is the significance? You were talking about him earlier, this constitutional lawyer, Keith Wilson leading, led Alberta decide what. What is the significance for the group that this very different figure is at the forefront versus some of these more, well, colorful characters?

[Richard Warnica]

You know, I had coffee with Keith when I was in Calgary and we were chatting about this, and I don't remember if it was he brought up the idea or I brought it up, but I think we both agreed that it was apt. That Mitch Sylvester and Jeff Wrath and Dennis Mowdre were almost like the kind of people you see running a leadership campaign where you're speaking to the base. And I think Keith Wilson sees himself as someone who runs a general election campaign. You know, he was straight up with me. He doesn't think they're at more than 25 to 30% in the polls now, but he also doesn't think there's been a real campaign. And I think there are a lot of people who would hear the kind of things that a Mitch or a Jeff would say in a room and think, I don't want any part of this. I think it would be a different story possibly if they heard Keith and instead of talking about conspiracy theories and King Charles, he's talking about, you know, the kind of things that Albertans have been complaining about for as long as I've been alive. My whole life, I heard about the kind of things Keith will talk about, which is, you know, we pay too much in transfer payments. We don't have enough say in Ottawa. By the time the voters are counted in Alberta, the government has already decided these will never change. These facts will never change. We need to leave. I think there are far more Albertans who would hear that and think, I like what this guy's saying. Will they then say, I'm going to vote with him?

[Cider Casino Announcer]

I don't know.

[Jason Markusoff]

So we haven't seen much movement in the polls since the spring when Daniel Smith announced his referendum in May. But we can look other precedents for sudden movement. Brexit, you were talking about in 1995. The Quebec separatists were at 38% with months ago and they surpassed 50% only to fall slightly shorter. What do you think it would take for Alberta separatists to get to where they are seriously contending or do you think that that's maybe not in the cards?

[Richard Warnica]

I mean, if something happened where that caused oil prices to fall dramatically, I think you might see some movement, regardless of what the cause of that was. I think if you were in a situation where we were seeing, like, municipal election level turnouts. So, you know, this is something Nenshi suggested to me when I saw him at Stampede was, you know, if we get 35% turnout, we know 80 to 90% of their 20 or 25 are going to be there. So what does that mean for our side? I think if Justin Trudeau had stayed in power and, and somehow won another election, I think we'd probably be looking at 35, 38 already. But that's not the case. So, I don't know. I'd be interested to know what you think. I mean, you're, you're there, you're on the ground.

[Jason Markusoff]

I, you know, in past, in past, people have talked to me about, you know, if there's a real charismatic figure that emerges, like a Nigel Farage or a Lucien Bouchard on the, the separatist side. I'm not sure if that's Keith Wilson or if somebody else is going to emerge or, you know, if there was a major provocation from the feds. But this isn't Justin Trudeau's Canada. This is Mark Carney's Canada. And they just promised a pipeline. That was sort of that thing that Daniel Smith was asking for. So I don't know. And I also wonder if maybe if you've had any conversations about this with the people you spoke to, like Jason Kenney and Stephen Carter and whatnot, if the Remain side is keeping their powder dry, like there's all this expectation that former Prime Minister Stephen Harper may start campaigning for the stateside this fall, could that be effective or might it be a little bit too late?

[Richard Warnica]

Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of people will say things will pick up after Labor Day, and I think that's true. You know, we got a municipal election in Toronto in the fall, and this is the same story. Things will pick up after Labor Day, but that's a short amount of time to raise a bunch of cash and come up with a strategy. My worry would be if one of those unlikely scenarios you're talking about a federal provocation, charismatic figure were to occur, and we're already midway through September, and the Federalists decide, oh, now it's time to ramp up, that's four weeks at that point, right? Four or five weeks. Again, I think it's highly unlikely. I think the odds are very, very high that the remain side wins. But I also think it's really, really important that they win emphatically and that I'm less confident about. And so, you know, I was surprised. You know, Monty Solberg, Tyler Shandro, two really well known, incredibly well connected Alberta political figures have their own third party advertising group. They've raised a little more money recently. But I was, you know, checking the financial disclosures every week, expecting that after stampede they would have been in all those corporate rooms passing the hat around. And I was, I was shocked. Like, if these guys aren't putting their foot to the pedal at that point, who is? But, you know, they're raising more money recently. You know, fingers crossed, fall comes, the federalists get their act together and this thing gets blown away. Because I think that, you know, I'm sure you've heard Jason Kenny say this, other people say this, and I think it's correct that if this becomes a defining fault line in Alberta politics the way it has in Quebec politics, I think that's tremendously damaging, not just Alberta, but for all of Canada. I think that it raises the prospect that the next time a federal government decides they intend to take significant action on climate change, the default answer, the answer that's already there will be, well, let's get separation going again. Like, there will be a period of time when Albertans are mad at the federal government again. It's gonna happen. And I worry that then you will have a generation who has been normalized to the idea that an appropriate response to that is to start a separation drive.

[Jason Markusoff]

Richard, thank you so much.

[Richard Warnica]

Thanks so much for having me, Jason.

[Jason Markusoff]

That's all for today. I'm Jason Markusoff in for Jamie Poisson. Talk to you tomorrow.

[Richard Warnica]

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