
<p>Thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes throughout B.C. due to wildfires over the past week. The province warns that the fires could get worse in the coming days.</p><p><br></p><p>The list of communities devastated by wildfires, and the intensity of the fires themselves, keeps growing. What was once a rare event has become disturbingly common. So why haven't we figured out a better way to fight wildfires? And what could we be doing differently?</p><p><br></p><p>Mike Flannigan joins us to answer those questions. He's a professor of wildland fires at Thompson Rivers University and runs the Canada fire weather outlook. </p><p><br></p><p>For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit:<a href=" https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts</a></p>
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Jason Markusoff
Hi, I'm Jason Marcusoff, in for Jamie. That whole mountain was engulfed in no time and then houses, propane tanks we're assuming, started exploding. The explosions were so loud and it was terrifying.
First Nations Leader
I was very optimistic that our house was going to make it and to find out that it didn't and get pictures that it didn't, it definitely wasn't
Mike Flannigan
a reality that I thought was gonna happen. There's so much smoke, I can't tell if my house has been missed or if it's gone. And it's the not knowing that is so scary.
Jason Markusoff
Those are some of the thousands of people who've been evacuated from their homes throughout B.C. due to wildfires over the past week. While some are getting the green light to return to their communities, new evacuations are being mandated with the province warning that the fires could get worse in the coming days. And the list of communities devastated by wildfires in recent years keeps growing. This is Fort McMurray burning. Much of the main areas of Jasper are burned to the ground.
Mike Flannigan
Lytton has been devastated. Residents of Collins, fleeing for their lives by boat, could only watch as their town burned to the ground.
Jason Markusoff
What was once a rare event has become disturbingly common. The Canadian summer is being transformed. But wildfires and the destruction they bring are nothing new. So why haven't we figured out a better way to fight them? And what could we be doing differently? Mike Flanagan is here to talk us through that. He's a professor of wildland fires at Thompson Rivers University. He's been tracking and studying wildfires for decades. Hi Mike. Thanks so much for taking the time to join us.
Mike Flannigan
Good day, Jason.
Jason Markusoff
So Mike, you're in Kamloops, B.C. as I'm talking to you on Thursday. Your air quality index is 10 plus. That's as bad as it can get on the scale. What's it like there?
Mike Flannigan
It's just awful. I mean, I'm getting cabin fever. I'm a fire guy and I'm sick and tired of this smoke and I see no end.
Jason Markusoff
And as a wildfire expert, I wonder what you've been Thinking over these past few years, not just where wildfires are raging today. In 2023, 50 million hectares of land burn more than double the previous record. Then another really bad year in 2024, then another. So, Mike, how bad is it compared to what we've seen in the past?
Mike Flannigan
In our modern day record, we've never had three bad fire years in a row. And to me, the start of this season, 2026, it was a litmus test to say, are we going to have another bad fire season? Because my narrative was there'd be bad years and there'd be quiet years, cool, wet years. Now I'm rethinking that. And 2026 is, yes, another active year. And so what I'm going to say now is expect a bad fire season every year. Now, regionally, yes, there'll be quiet years, like Ontario could be really quiet next year. But nationally, we're a large country and somewhere it's going to have an episode like we saw in Ontario, like we're seeing in bc. Northwest Territories is also burning hasn't made much of the news, but this is our new reality. More fire and more smoke because we're living in a warmer world.
Jason Markusoff
So just explain to us why it is so bad and why that warmer world makes it all worse.
Mike Flannigan
As we warm, we're seeing more fire and people say, whoa, whoa, whoa, why is temperature so important here? I'm not talking about individual fire like Lytton or Jasper or Fort McMurray or that long list where wind and pyro cumulimbus could be playing a role. Talking about fire or large area like a province, Ontario, Quebec, over a longer period of time, like decades. So we're seeing longer fire seasons as we warm. Second, as we warm, we expect more lightning. And probably the most important reason is as we warm, the atmosphere's ability to suck moisture out of dead fuels in the forest floor increases rapidly. So that unless we see more rain to compensate for this drying effect, we're going to have drier fuels. And what we've been seeing is actually drier conditions. And what the models predict for the future are also drier conditions. So bottom line, drier fuels means it's easier for a fire to start, whether it's that lightning strike or human caused.
Jason Markusoff
And I understand too that it's, you know, even the nighttime is becoming a great vector for fires that firefighters used to get breaks from the growing of intensity of fires at night. Now tell me how that's working.
Mike Flannigan
So I've been monitoring fires all my life, playing with fire all my life, and since my professional career started in the 70s, two things stand out to me. What's changed? And you've just mentioned one of them, and that is fires burning into and through the night. And this is increasing. And traditionally, it was a time for firefighters to catch their breath. You know, temperature goes down, relative humidity goes up, wind often drops, the fire goes quiet. You catch your breath and prepare for the next day. But now nights are warming more rapidly than days. And because we're seeing more drought, fires are burning into and through the night. And I watch the fires on satellite daily during the fire season. And this year, I've seen a lot more fires burn through the night. Fireman has adapted somewhat. We now fight fires at night. We also have night vision for helicopters. Alberta, British Columbia, some of the states do it as well. But this is bad news. Okay, the other item that's really changed is something called pyrocumulonimbus. Fire generated thunderstorms, and studies have shown that we are seeing more of these. A colleague and I, Brian Stocks, wrote a paper in 1987 about a pyro human nimbus. And it was because it was such a rare event. They did occur in the past, but, you know, for example, 2023, Canada had 142 fire generated thunderstorms. The previous global record for 2021 was 102. The Canadian record was 50. And now we're seeing them almost all the time because the fires are becoming more intense, because we're hotter and drier.
Jason Markusoff
So if the situation, Mike, is becoming worse, keeps getting worse and probably continue to grow worse, do you see our response rising to the level that meets this growing severity?
Mike Flannigan
So I think say it's our new reality where we're going to see more fire and smoke. Fire management is the responsibility of the landowner. So In Canada, that's 10 provinces, three territories, and parks Canada is a federal agency. They have some common features that allow them to share resources, but they all do things a little bit differently. My question is, is status quo the best option? I personally don't think so. There's been a recent Senate report, Canada on Fire, an app title. And we should be exploring how other places around the world, what's the best practices and how we could make that work in Canada. The bottom line is we do not have enough resources in Canada to deal with the situation that we currently avail ourselves of. You know, as I speak, there's hundreds of firefighters from Mexico, and they're calling in firefighters from New Zealand, Australia. And this is Happening year after year after year. There's a number of options here. One is to have a Federal Emergency Management Agency. We're the only G7 country without one.
Jason Markusoff
I want to return to this idea of a new agency a bit later, but let's dig into some of what you just said about firefighters. Some unions are claiming that their members are being asked to do more with less. Ontario, for example, the union says they're authorized to operate with 190 crews, but staffing shortages are leaving them 34 crews short. So do we have enough people out there, Mike? And if not, why not?
Mike Flannigan
So for the traditional wildland firefighters, we do not have enough in the busy years. Thus we call on some years in the United States. They're our closest neighbor. This year, United States is having a very active season as well, and they basically have no resources to spare and they're bringing in resources from around the world. One option would be to use volunteer and paid firefighters, structural firefighters. There's about over 100,000 of these firefighters across Canada. Now, structural fires and wildland fires are quite different. The strategies are different, the equipment's different. But with training these firefighters, structural firefighters could be used on wildland fires. And for example, I live in Kamloops, Kamloops Fire and Rescue. They're trained and they have experience dealing with wildland fires and they're very good at it. This kind of model could be used across the country to better able us to deal with the unwanted fires. You know, as mentioned, fires are natural. And when and where possible, we should let Mother Nature play a role. Now I'll use Ontario as an example. Here they run a fire weather forecast for the next two weeks. They run a fire growth model for the next two weeks, saying where will that fire spread? And if it's close to community, 2 km from Timmins, half second, you send crews to put it out. If it's 100 km north of Timmins, it may not be threatening anything, maybe knocking down spruce budworm populations. And so they may say, we're just going to monitor it, let Mother Nature do her thing. The next day comes to get new fire weather forecasts, new fire growth model, and then update their decisions. And they may let spread to a river and say, we're not going to let jump the river. And to me, that kind of modified response is the way to go to deal with fires on a case by case basis.
Jason Markusoff
Now, you've done a lot of work yourself on fire weather forecasting. Can you explain what it is? And are governments all over the place applying that technology and then forecasting.
Mike Flannigan
So, you know, right now I have a fire weather outlook. Every week I say, what will the fire weather conditions be in five to 10 days? To give us some lead time, because we should be more proactive. And basically forecasting that hot, dry, windy is what we need to do. And we're pretty good at out to five to 10 days. The challenge is forecasting ignitions, lightning, and human costs. There are models for that. But not only do you have to forecast the lightning, but you have to determine whether that lightning forecast will start a fire. And that depends on the fuel moisture, and it depends where the lightning strikes. And that's like rolling dice. But there are models that help us, and we're working on these, and we're using tools like machine learning to be able to better predict where to expect the lightning. But having an early warning system, we do it for hurricanes, why don't we do it for fire?
Jason Markusoff
Wanted to go back for a second to your talk about firefighter resources and especially this idea of having urban firefighters help with wildland, because I'd imagine it's the same for provinces as you share resources that you don't want to send all your firefighters to the woods 100km north and then risk being shorthanded when there's a fire. And I'd imagine that same thing goes, especially this year from sending Ontario firefighters to the West. How do you navigate that?
Mike Flannigan
It's kind of like a game theory. So BC's on fire. Okay. And so BC says, hey, we need help. And so they call CIFC, that Canadian Interagency Forest Fire center, and let's say Ontario wants to help. Things are starting to quiet down. Ontario wants to help, but they have to protect their home territory. So they hold stuff in reserve. And when you do send a crew, you won't see them for three weeks. Okay, so things may be quiet this week in Ontario, but what about next week and the week after where you may be on fire again and say, my crew's in bc, I'd like them back. Okay, so you always hold back, and that's only natural. You have to protect your home territory first before you share your resources and help your neighbor.
Jason Markusoff
In terms of resources, what about planes? The Senate report you were talking about earlier, one of the recommendations it made was to, quote, create and fund a national fleet of modern firefighting aircraft that are in good working order, end quote, and make sure that there are some personnel to support them. What's the quality of our fleet right now?
Mike Flannigan
So it's aging for One and the federal government actually in the last budget did allow funding for the leasing or contracting of aircraft. And there was 10 aircraft. But these aren't new aircraft. These were existing aircraft. And so the federal government's paying for it instead of the province or someone else leasing or contracting these planes. We need more planes out. Absolutely. I do want to point out that, you know, it's the firefighters, the men and women on the front that put that fire out. Aircrafts are great help, especially during initial attack. When the fire first start, they buy you extra time because when things are extreme, you have about 30 minutes to put that fire out. All fires start small. That's our window to put it out. After about 30 minutes, the fields are dry, conifer, hot, dry, windy. And we get, we call them crown fires. Because the fire spreads from the forest floor to the tops or crowns of the tree. The horses left the barn. Aerial attack becomes ineffective. It's not safe for ground crews to fight the head of the fire. So that first half hour is critical. Having aircraft could buy you a few extra minutes. But Canada is known for its wire bombers and you can see pictures of them in Europe, California, all around the world. And there's a plant near Calgary and they have orders. I think if you wanted to buy a plane, put an order in. I think you'd have to wait till 2033, 2034. Yeah, our fleet is aging. We do need additional aircraft. I would argue we need additional firefighters. Kind of a national firefighter group where you don't have to worry about keeping someone reserved for your home. Territory that can be proactively deployed to assist the community, the province, the territory, and be used as required. And having those in place before your province or territory is on fire I think will help address this problem.
First Nations Leader
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Jason Markusoff
so earlier this summer, Mike, two First nations were largely destroyed in northern Ontario, Collins and Whitewater Lake. The leadership of those first nations were very critical of how the evacuations were handled. They say they didn't receive timely information from the government and that evacuations orders came too late and many people had to self evacuate.
First Nations Leader
Leaders are doubling down on their calls for a public inquiry, arguing the province didn't properly prepare for this year's wildfire season.
Mike Flannigan
Ontario is missing in action when it comes to the response of what we face in our community. Indigenous communities must be partners in decisions that affect our territories, not observers waiting
Jason Markusoff
for decisions to be made elsewhere. What are the biggest challenges around managing evacuations? Is there something we could do differently on that front?
Mike Flannigan
Yes. So if you look at the reviews of fires, whether It's Slave Lake, Fort McMurray, whichever review you want to look at, communication is up near the top, if not the top recommendation, we have to improve communication and we cannot just rely on cell phones and social media. You know, we have to look at ways to better communicate. Maybe some old school ways like sirens that are still used, Tornado alley in the states and for tsunamis, but we have to do a better job of communicating emergency management options, information, directions. I mean, there's a lot we can still do.
Jason Markusoff
In response to some of the criticism of what happened in, in evacuations at Collins and Whitewater Lake, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said, quote, ontario has taken lots on reserve. The feds have the responsibility to take care of first nations, but we're taking care of them. So ultimately, who is responsible for making sure communities are safe?
Mike Flannigan
It depends. You know, here maybe Jasper is an example. Jasper is a national park, but the community is actually Alberta. And you know, if you read the reports, there was some sort of, you know, who's in charge here? Okay. And you know, one thing I've learned over the years is you need a unified command. Everyone has to be on the same page. If you have two bosses, it's not going to work. So this is a necessary way to address in Canada and other places, we use ICS incident command system that, you know, follows this unified command approach. So it depends if the community is provincial or territorial or indigenous. There are different responsibilities depending on, you know, where that community is located. And then you can go into state of emergency and it's done differently. In different provinces, the community could call a state of emergency. I'm in the province, you know, it's a mess. And it's all about governance. And the problem is some of the aspects of fire, the governance is community based, some of it is provincial or territorial and some is federal. And getting everyone on the same page is challenging at best.
Jason Markusoff
And this brings up something that I know that you've been banging the drum about and the Senate report mentioned as well, this idea of creating a federal coordinating office for wildfires and emergency response. But provinces, as you were saying, do share resources. So what would a new federal agency for wildfire and emergency management allow the government to do that we're not already doing?
Mike Flannigan
First, it would increase the resources available for these episodes where we see extreme fire activity and we've seen multiple examples this year, Quebec, Ontario, Northwest Territories and lbc. And it will allow additional resources. Instead of getting hundreds of firefighters from Mexico, we could be using well trained Canadian firefighters. And you know, it could be all hazard. They could be used for floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and be quick deploy or better yet be deployed before the event. But would also have this early warning system to highlight where we expect the extreme fire weather, the new fire starts and share that with the provinces and territories and allow the fire management agencies to call upon these additional fed resources that we don't have to hold back. Now, CIFC could play a role and be part of this FEMA type agency, but still it has to be within the government of Canada. Whether it's emergency management or Natural Resources Canada, Indigenous Services Canada, you have to work together. We have to be on the same page. It will cost money and One option is DND. As their budget grows, if they go to 5%, that top 1.5% can be used for a FEMA type agency. And they're one of the few departments that has an increasing budget. So there's a number of considerations, but we can do this and we can have improved response to reduce the likelihood of the next Jasper, the next Fort McMurray, it's only going to happen again. So prevention is always better than paying after the fact. So generally we find for every dollar you spend prevention, it saves you 4, 5, 10, some even say $15 down the road. So like I said, if we can prevent one Jasper, one Fort McMurray, it can more than pay for itself. Yes, you know these early warning systems, sometimes the forecast will be wrong, but if you're, you're right, more often than not it will pay for itself. And hardening our communities and critical Infrastructure is the path forward.
Jason Markusoff
And if you've been watching social media this summer, you'll find a whole lot of people contrasting this environmental disaster we're experiencing with Prime Minister Mark Carney's record of pulling back on climate change targets, and in particular, his decision to greenlight a new pipeline. I mean, he'd say he. He's taking more concrete action than the Trudeau government ever did. We relied too much on targets, laws that weren't driving the actual investment that's necessary to reduce emissions.
Mike Flannigan
So we shifted our focus, shifted our
Jason Markusoff
focus to get that investment driven. But from your perspective, are politicians treating this new reality with the urgency it deserves?
Mike Flannigan
No, absolutely not. The last thing we need is a new pipeline. It's another nail in our coffin. We have to get off fossil fuels. The economics is driving us to the renewables. Solar is a lot cheaper than oil, gas or coal, all right? And it's only going to get cheaper as the technology improves. And of course, the geopolitical situation globally. Strait of Hormuz. And the problem with getting oil distributed is driving countries to renewables. And we should be leading the pack rather than following the pack. Matter of fact, we're not doing anything constructive at this point. I would say we need to do about face on renewables.
Jason Markusoff
But I think the brutal reality, though, is, if not mistaken, that any level of climate action we do right now is not going to change the next few years of fires. They're going to keep getting worse regardless of what we do, right?
Mike Flannigan
For the next few years. Yes, but down the road, we have to think of our children, our grandchildren, if you have them. I mean, the later we delay dealing with this problem, the worse it's going to get. Yes. Even if I had a magic wand and said no more fossil fuel burning globally, we're going to continue to warm for a decade or two, but then we start to come down, all right? If we delay it five or 10 years, then we're going to continue to warm even longer. And who knows if we get our act together in five or 10 years. You know, a colleague and I, Mike Weber, wrote a paper in the 90s on fire and climate change. Near the end of the paper, we say urgent action is needed. Now, here, almost 30 years later, I'm saying the same bloody thing. I'm getting tired of saying this. We need urgent action now. And talk is cheap. Canada's record is abysmal. I can't be more direct than that in terms of dealing with climate change. Emergency crisis. Call up what you will. We're doing a horrible job. We have to do better.
Jason Markusoff
So to wrap up, there's a lot of anger among the public right now over this new normal, how our summers are changing. The smoke forcing us to stay inside summer camps shutting down, industry, farming being affected. People have to worry about evacuations and losing their towns. The effects of these fires have become just inescapable. Mike, do you think we're reaching a tipping point where we're finally going to make some big changes around wildfire management?
Mike Flannigan
I hope so. I'd like to say that to change human behavior, we need a few bloody noses. We're getting those bloody noses and it's time to change. And you know, in the fire business with the federal government for many years, many decades, and there wasn't much funding for it. Fort McMurray came along and now there's been significant funding for fire. That's great. That's first step. I'm hoping that what we're seeing with these three now four very active, impactful years, we will start to change in how we deal with fire management. And the Senate report that we've talked about, Federal government has 180 days to respond to that. So let's hope we see something in the next budget.
Jason Markusoff
Mike, thank you so much for what wasn't a comfortable but an important conversation.
Mike Flannigan
My pleasure.
Jason Markusoff
That's all for today. Front Burner was produced this week by Joyta Sengupta, Matthew Amha, Kevin Sexton, cecilia Armstrong, Sam McNulty and MacKenzie Cameron. Our E2 producer is John Lee. Our music is by Joseph Chavesson. Our senior producer is Imogen Burchard. Our executive producer this week is Elaine Chao. I'm Jason Markusoff. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you next week.
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Date: August 7, 2026
Host: Jason Markusoff (in for Jayme Poisson)
Guest: Mike Flannigan, Professor of Wildland Fire, Thompson Rivers University
This episode explores why Canada remains seemingly unprepared for ever-more-destructive wildfire seasons. Over the past several years, wildfires have surged in frequency, severity, and impact, transforming Canadian summers and threatening communities nationwide. Host Jason Markusoff interviews fire expert Mike Flannigan about the science behind this “new normal,” the chronic lack of preparedness at governmental and community levels, systemic failures in response and resource management, and what urgently needs to change.
"Now, regionally, yes, there'll be quiet years ... but nationally, this is our new reality. More fire and more smoke because we're living in a warmer world."
— Mike Flannigan ([03:04])
"Fires burning into and through the night... is bad news."
— Mike Flannigan ([05:26])
"We do not have enough resources in Canada... Every year, we bring in firefighters from Mexico, New Zealand, Australia..."
— Mike Flannigan ([07:43])
"Communication is up near the top, if not the top recommendation. We have to improve communication..."
— Mike Flannigan ([18:21])
"If you have two bosses, it's not going to work... Getting everyone on the same page is challenging at best."
— Mike Flannigan ([19:30])
"No, absolutely not. The last thing we need is a new pipeline. It's another nail in our coffin. ... Canada's record is abysmal... I'm getting tired of saying this. We need urgent action now. And talk is cheap."
— Mike Flannigan ([24:30]–[26:40])
"I'd like to say that to change human behavior, we need a few bloody noses. We're getting those bloody noses and it's time to change."
— Mike Flannigan ([27:05])