Front Burner — "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela?"
CBC | Host: Jayme Poisson
Guest: Jon Lee Anderson (The New Yorker)
Date: December 1, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela, fueled by military escalations and aggressive rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump. Host Jayme Poisson is joined by veteran journalist Jon Lee Anderson to dissect whether the current U.S. posture signals an imminent invasion, the veracity of the narco-state accusations against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and the historical and strategic context behind U.S. actions in Latin America — especially the role of oil and long-standing interventionist doctrines.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalating U.S. Military Posture in the Caribbean

(00:34-02:01)

• Trump's provocative Truth Social declaration: U.S. airspace around Venezuela is "closed," with a military buildup of 15 warships and ~15,000 troops nearby.
• Official justification: Crackdown on alleged drug trafficking networks and threats to forcibly remove Maduro.
• Poisson’s framing: Is this truly about drugs, or is oil the real motive?

2. Questioning the Narco-State Narrative

(02:40-06:23)

• Anderson’s take: U.S. actions are “the most theatrical, performative exercise in gunboat diplomacy…that I’ve ever seen in my life.” (03:20)
• No one truly knows the administration’s intentions: “Nobody knows what’s up. Actually, no one does.” (03:22)
• Maduro’s regime: Not widely respected regionally, but Anderson balks at calling it a narco-state: “It’s a real stretch to call it a narco regime, or…that Nicolás Maduro is…the head of some kind of cartel.” (05:10)

3. Critique from Within the U.S.

(06:10-07:12)

• Senator Rand Paul’s skepticism: Questions lack of evidence and transparency; points out that Venezuelan cartels do not manufacture fentanyl.

  “They're pretending as if they've gotten some imprimatur to do what they want... They just send them back to their country. Most of the time.” – Rand Paul (06:23)

• Anderson on drug routes: Most cocaine originates in Colombia, not Venezuela. Fentanyl’s precursor chemicals are from China, trafficked via Mexico.

4. Legality and Ethics of Targeting ‘Drug Boats’

(07:41-11:24)

• No evidence provided by U.S. for strikes on boats: 83 killed, 21 vessels attacked — described by the UN as “extrajudicial executions.”
• Profile of casualties: “These are poor men usually who are hired as hands for a drug shipment operation.” (10:10)

  “Would we kill mules arriving at Miami airport that we find have condoms filled with cocaine...? Would we shoot them on the spot? No. So why are we doing it in the open seas? It seems to be a kind of burlesque display of performative propaganda.” – Jon Lee Anderson (10:49)

5. Oil, Democracy, or Drugs? Unpacking Real Motives

(12:26-15:56)

• Republican figures openly tout oil as motive: Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar calls Venezuela “a field day” for American oil firms, openly inviting invasion for economic gain.

  “[She] actually said there's one or two trillion dollars to be had for American oil companies. In other words, do the military invasion.” (12:26)

• Historical context: Reference to the Iraq War and the long U.S. history of resource-based interventions.
• Impact on Venezuelan society: Economic collapse, mass exodus, and use of Venezuela as a scapegoat in U.S. anti-immigration and anti-socialist rhetoric.

6. Weaponizing Immigration and Crime Narratives

(15:56-17:00)

• Trump’s playbook: Demonizes Venezuelan migrants and gangs, paralleling tactics used against other groups in previous campaigns.
• Psychological warfare: Systematic effort to link Venezuelans with drugs and violence in the American psyche.

  “There’s been a lot of work done. I would call it psychological warfare in the minds of the Americans... Violent migrants... drugs destroying our minds, our youth.” (17:00)

7. Geostrategic Ambition and the ‘New Monroe Doctrine’

(17:42-21:08)

• Desire for hemispheric dominance: Trump wants to “dominate the hemisphere” — a modern-day echo of the Monroe Doctrine.

  “He wants to reassert American control...this is ours, this is mine, and I’m going to do what I want with it.” (18:00)

• Historical parallels: U.S. history of overt and covert intervention — from gunboat diplomacy to CIA coups.

8. Monroe Doctrine and Long-Term U.S. Policy

(21:08-24:32)

• Doctrine origins (1823): Originally designed to keep European powers out, became a tool for U.S. regional control.
• Shift over centuries: From open intervention to covert actions during the Cold War; resurgence of overt tactics under Trump.
• Significant quote:

  “Trump has revived that. He has not just revived the rhetoric or notion of the Cold War, he’s gone one further with this confrontation, this sort of open display of military power in a region where…even conservative ones, use diplomacy first...” (23:57)

9. Installing ‘Friendly’ Leaders: The Limits and Fallout

(24:32-30:06)

• American preference for friendly proxies: María Corina Machado and Juan Guaidó supported as potential Western-friendly leaders, but efforts falter.
  • Machado has openly advocated U.S. military intervention and oil deals.
  • Guaidó was presented globally as “president,” though never held power.
• Jon Lee Anderson’s revelation: Trump’s desire to invade Venezuela dates back to his first months in office:

  “[In 2017] the first thing out of his mouth was, 'I want to invade Venezuela. How can we do that?' That was the very first thing he said to them.” (28:07)

• Policy remains performative and deeply partisan, no matter the administration.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On drug war justification:

  “It’s a real stretch to call it a narco regime, or…that Nicolás Maduro is…the head of some kind of cartel.” – Jon Lee Anderson (05:10)

• On perfomative military action:

  “It seems to be a kind of burlesque display of performative propaganda. Frankly.” – Jon Lee Anderson (10:49)

• On oil as a motive:

  “There's one or two trillion dollars to be had for American oil companies. In other words, do the military invasion.” – Jon Lee Anderson (12:26)

• On historical patterns:

  “Once you let [war] out of the petri dish, you don’t know where it’s going to go." – Jon Lee Anderson (17:47)

• On Trump’s ambition:

  “He wants to reassert American control...this is ours, this is mine, and I’m going to do what I want with it.” – Jon Lee Anderson (18:00)

• On proxies:

  “[Trump] was not calling himself an anti war president, he wanted to invade Venezuela… What we saw... was a series of really cack handed attempted invasions and conspiracies which were somehow green lit by people connected to Washington, Miami and so forth.” – Jon Lee Anderson (28:24)

Timeline of Key Segments

| Time | Segment Title / Focus | |----------|--------------------------------------| | 00:34 | U.S. Escalation & Trump’s Rhetoric | | 03:20 | Gunboat Diplomacy & Performative Policy | | 06:23 | Rand Paul's Critique | | 07:41 | Targeting ‘Drug Boats’ & Extrajudicial Killings | | 12:26 | Oil, Economy, and Open Calls for Invasion | | 15:56 | Weaponizing Crime & Immigration Narratives | | 17:42 | Trump’s Ambitions: ‘Manifest Destiny’ Redux | | 21:08 | The Monroe Doctrine, Old and New | | 24:32 | U.S.-Backed Leaders: Machado & Guaidó| | 28:07 | Private Talks: Trump’s Invasion Aspirations |

Tone & Style

The conversation is frank, historically grounded, and skeptical of official U.S. narratives, with Anderson repeatedly drawing on historical parallels and expressing concern for the human cost of these policies. The tone is serious yet does not shy away from wry incredulity at the spectacle created by the Trump administration.

Summary Takeaways

• The U.S. build-up against Venezuela appears less about drugs and more about regime change, oil interests, and hemispheric dominance.
• Evidence supporting the narco-state narrative is scant and contested both by experts and select U.S. politicians.
• Military actions, especially targeted killings at sea, raise legal and ethical red flags.
• Trump’s approach echoes an interventionist U.S. tradition dating back to the Monroe Doctrine, with new performative, “gunboat” flair.
• Open calls for resource acquisition (oil) are unprecedented in their transparency.
• Backing opposition figures and proxies has historically failed to bring about regime change or stability.
• Ultimately, policy towards Venezuela reflects a complex mix of resource ambitions, ideological posturing, and an ongoing legacy of U.S. interventionism in Latin America.

For listeners and readers seeking coherent background, this episode offers a sobering, in-depth examination of the stakes, the stories, and the history behind the U.S.’s saber-rattling towards Venezuela.