Front Burner (CBC)

Episode Title: Will Trump rig the midterms?
Date: March 18, 2026
Host: Matthew Umha (in for Jayme Poisson)
Guest: David A. Graham, Staff Writer, The Atlantic

Overview

In this episode, Front Burner explores the growing concerns over potential election interference and anti-democratic maneuvers by former President Donald Trump and his allies leading up to the 2026 U.S. midterms. Host Matthew Umha discusses recent events, historical context, and the broader implications for American democracy with Atlantic staff writer David A. Graham.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Persistent Narrative of a “Stolen” Election

• Trump’s Longstanding Fraud Claims:
  Trump continues to assert, without evidence, that the 2020 election—and even the 2016 election’s popular vote—were stolen from him. This sense of “imagined injustice” serves to animate his political movement and justify aggressive actions.

  “He continues to claim that he was cheated out of the 2016 election popular vote.”
  — David A. Graham (04:20)

• Impact on Political Strategy:
  These claims have driven policy and personnel choices, including efforts to replace officials with loyalists and to introduce restrictive executive orders on voting.

2. Evidence and Tactics of Potential Election Interference

• Recent Events:

  • FBI Raid in Georgia: FBI seizes 2020 ballots using a warrant based on debunked claims. Unusual federal involvement, including presence of the Director of National Intelligence, raises concerns.
    [17:08–19:38]
  • Seeking Military Involvement: Allies like Steve Bannon call for a “militarized” presence at polling stations and use of the Insurrection Act to control the vote.
    [22:04; 22:44]

• Seizing Election Infrastructure:

  • Drafted, but failed, executive orders to seize voting machines.
  • Trump expressed regret over not seizing machines in 2020.

• Undermining Mail-In Voting:

  • Attempted to decertify mail-in ballots received after Election Day and all U.S. voting machines not meeting Trump-specified requirements.
    [12:22–12:48]

• Stacking Leadership:

  • Appointment of election conspiracists to federal positions like Director of Election Security and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Election Integrity.
  • Discussion of election-related prosecutions for rivals. [10:47–11:35]

3. The Power and Limits of the Presidency Over Elections

• Decentralized Election System:

  • Despite Trump’s moves, the American election system remains highly decentralized, limiting presidential control over voting processes.
  • Real power over elections primarily resides at the local and state level.

  “The actual federal role in elections is fairly small, especially for the President. So what he's looking to do is seize power to exert control he doesn't really have, and see if people will go along with it.”
  — David A. Graham (11:35)

• Constitutional and Practical Barriers:

  • Trump’s moves to “nationalize” elections lack constitutional support and are technically infeasible, given the lack of federal election apparatus. [14:32–16:02]

4. Misinformation, Media, and Public Perception

• Complexity and Opacity:
  • U.S. voting processes are complex, which breeds both misunderstanding and conspiracy theories among the public.
• Amplification by Alternative Media:
  • When mainstream outlets reject conspiracies, audiences seek out alternative platforms more willing to repeat false claims. [09:25–10:47]

5. Legal, Social, and Historical Context

• Potential for Militarized Polling Places:

  • There is serious discussion among officials and experts about the real possibility of federal forces monitoring or intervening at polling sites.

  “I started calling experts who...tended to downplay fears...and they would repeatedly say, yeah, that’s possible. We should be prepared for that.”
  — David A. Graham (22:44)

• Preparations for Interference:

  • Local officials are preparing by clarifying laws, coordinating with local police, and sharing information with voters about their rights.

• Longstanding Voter Suppression:

  • Voter disenfranchisement, rooted in American history, remains a persistent threat—recently amplified by gerrymandering, voter ID laws, and court decisions rolling back Voting Rights Act protections.

  “You can make an argument that voter suppression is more the rule than the exception throughout American history.”
  — David A. Graham (26:17)

• Competitive Authoritarianism:

  • The U.S. under Trump demonstrates features of “competitive authoritarianism”—not outright dictatorship, but manipulating the rules to disadvantage opposition and tilt elections.

  “You just make it a lot harder for them to win elections...You don’t ban the media altogether, but you pressure the independent media and try to put friendly operators in place.”
  — David A. Graham (28:57)

6. The Democratic Party’s (In)adequacy

• Response to Republican Tactics:

  • Democrats often seem “taken by surprise” and underprepared for Trump’s aggressive use of power, struggling to match the Republican party’s push for systemic advantage.

  “They do seem to have been taken by surprise by some of the things that Trump has done and the Republicans have done.”
  — David A. Graham (31:10)

7. The Resilience (or Fragility) of American Democracy

• Historic Tests and Warnings:

  • 2020 served as a test that the system passed—Trump lost and left office—but with limited accountability.
  • The 2026 midterms are viewed as a critical test of whether the system can hold under sustained pressure.

  “What’s scary is there’s no chance really to take the foot off the accelerator here. People have to keep paying attention to this and working at it and defending institutions, and it’s very hard to sustain that kind of effort over a long period.”
  — David A. Graham (32:51)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Steve Bannon’s Threatening Framing:
  “We have to understand that if we don’t take this to the maximum now with a sense of urgency and in doing this, seize the institutions…you’re never going to have another Trump.”
  — Steve Bannon (00:41)
• Mark Warner’s Stark Warning:
  “If we have a corrupted election, I’m not sure how our country ever comes back.”
  — Senator Mark Warner (02:58)
• Trump on Nationalizing Elections and Federal Intervention:
  “Take a look at Detroit, take a look at Pennsylvania...The federal government should not allow that. The federal government should get involved.”
  — Donald Trump (14:16)
• Describing "Competitive Authoritarianism":
  “You just make it a lot harder for [the opposition] to win elections.”
  — David A. Graham (28:57)
• Democratic (In)effectiveness in the Face of Crisis:
  “Republicans are over here being straight up mercenaries. Democrats give everybody Fridays off and talk about work, life, balance. They are not built for when the fascists come.”
  — Quoted by Matthew Umha from The Atlantic (31:10)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Intro and Bannon/Trump Statements: 00:41–03:22
• Review of Trump’s 2020-2024 Actions: 03:58–06:26
• Conspiracy Theories and Their Appeal: 07:31–09:25
• Media’s Role in Misinformation: 09:25–10:47
• Trump’s Executive Orders and Centralization Attempts: 12:22–14:02
• Limits of Federal Power over Elections: 14:32–16:02
• FBI Raid in Georgia/Election Facility Incident: 16:56–19:38
• Possibility of Militarized Voting Stations: 20:24–24:29
• Historical Perspective on Voter Suppression: 25:35–27:54
• Competitive Authoritarianism Explained: 28:40–30:38
• Democratic Party Response: 30:38–32:26
• Outlook for U.S. Democracy and 2026 Test: 32:26–34:01

Conclusion

This incisive episode foregrounds the unprecedented pressures on U.S. elections: from overt power grabs, conspiracy-driven policymaking, and threats of militarized polling places, to deeper currents of competitive authoritarianism and historical voter suppression. It challenges listeners to critically assess both the vulnerabilities and the resilience of the American electoral system heading into the pivotal 2026 midterms.