After Hours: A Crucial Battleground: Operation Michigan

Summary

Full Measure After Hours: A Crucial Battleground – Operation Michigan

Podcast Information:

• Title: Full Measure After Hours
• Host/Author: Sharyl Attkisson
• Episode: After Hours: A Crucial Battleground: Operation Michigan
• Release Date: September 12, 2024

Summary:

In the September 12, 2024 episode of Full Measure After Hours, host Cheryl Atkinson delves into the pivotal role of Michigan in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election. Titled "A Crucial Battleground: Operation Michigan," the episode offers an in-depth analysis of the strategies employed by both Republicans and Democrats to secure victory in this key swing state. Through insightful interviews with Michigan Republican Party Chairman Pete Hoekstra and political scientist David Takitake, Atkinson unpacks the dynamic political landscape of Michigan and its implications for the national election.

Michigan: The Heart of the Battle

Cheryl Atkinson sets the stage by highlighting Michigan's significance as a battleground state. She notes the state's predominantly Republican geographic landscape, contrasted by Democrat-leaning urban centers that will ultimately decide the election outcome.

“In Michigan, like several states, the vast majority of the state geographically is Republican. It’s just a couple of places near the big cities that lean Democrat, and that's where the election can be decided.” – Cheryl Atkinson [00:28]

Atkinson observes a dramatic shift in Michigan’s political climate since her trip to the state. President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race has energized Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign, altering the previously perceived secure lead of former President Donald Trump.

Republican Strategies: Insights from Pete Hoekstra

Pete Hoekstra, the Michigan Republican Party Chairman, discusses the party's current strategies and challenges in Michigan.

Building Momentum

Hoekstra emphasizes the flurry of Republican activity in Michigan, with multiple high-profile figures campaigning to galvanize support.

“We’re going to have J.D. Vance, we’re going to have Ben Carson, we’re going to have the president maybe twice, and then Christine Ohm. So six visits in a span of three weeks. So clearly it’s ground zero.” – Pete Hoekstra [03:34]

He acknowledges a temporary setback following Biden's exit but remains optimistic about regaining momentum by focusing on key issues such as the United Auto Workers (UAW) plans for electric vehicles and inflation.

“When we’re talking about the issues, when we go into the UAW and talk about their plan for electric vehicles, we win. We’re talking about inflation, we win.” – Pete Hoekstra [04:17]

Election Integrity and Early Voting

A significant aspect of the Republican strategy revolves around election integrity and maximizing early voter turnout. Hoekstra explains that early voting is not merely about mobilizing existing voters but strategically managing voter participation.

“Donald Trump is saying vote early before he was saying, you know, the other cycles, he’s been talking about, you know, vote on election Day. That’s where we’ve got the cleanest process.” – Pete Hoekstra [07:45]

He highlights efforts to ensure voter file accuracy, citing that 53 out of 83 counties in Michigan have more registered voters than eligible voters, a discrepancy the party aims to rectify through legal channels.

“We have 53 counties out of 83 in Michigan that have more registered voters than eligible voters. That’s not possible.” – Pete Hoekstra [06:28]

Strategic Early Voting Benefits

Hoekstra elaborates on how early voting aids the Republican campaign by allowing for better tracking and targeting of voters as Election Day approaches.

“Once you bank the vote, it fundamentally changes the strategy. It takes the risk out of what the weather is like on election day if we have banked the votes.” – Pete Hoekstra [09:34]

He points out an encouraging trend where more Republicans are embracing early voting, contrasting it with historical Democratic voting patterns.

“This year in Michigan, we had more Republicans vote early than we did Democrats. So that is, that’s an encouraging trend.” – Pete Hoekstra [10:10]

Democratic Dynamics: Analysis by David Takitake

Political scientist David Takitake provides a comprehensive analysis of Michigan’s evolving political landscape and the Democrats' prospects under Harris's candidacy.

Michigan’s Purple Status

Takitake characterizes Michigan as a historically diverse and "purple" state, often swinging between Republican and Democratic preferences in recent elections.

“Michigan has been actually a very diverse purple state. Throughout much of its history, we’ve seen changes in its political ideology.” – David Takitake [12:50]

Shift Toward Harris

He observes a significant shift in voter enthusiasm towards Vice President Harris, attributing it to her strategic campaign moves and the electorate's desire for new leadership.

“With the tremendous fundraising, with the change in tenor and enthusiasm amongst the left and left-leaning moderates, I would say right now it’s Harris back on top.” – David Takitake [16:50]

Takitake notes that Harris represents a departure from previous candidates, appealing to voters seeking an alternative to both Biden and Trump without necessarily focusing solely on policy differences.

“A lot of people see her as representing something different than what they’ve had or what was on offer just a few months ago.” – David Takitake [15:25]

Winning Michigan: Key Factors

According to Takitake, winning Michigan requires addressing blue-collar manufacturing concerns, election integrity, conservation, and agricultural issues. He emphasizes the importance of resonating with both urban and rural voters by balancing immediate economic concerns with broader environmental and agricultural policies.

“You’ve got to address both the kitchen table issues and you need to be a person who exhibits the leadership, the balance, the character to position Michigan and the rest of the country for success moving forward.” – David Takitake [17:51]

Electoral College Implications

Takitake discusses the broader implications of Michigan's swing state status within the Electoral College system, highlighting how urban concentrations amplify certain political dynamics.

“We have divided up our national popular vote into states and we’ve divided that into electoral college votes. And that is the system we’re working with.” – David Takitake [15:40]

He points out that this system inherently gives more leverage to populous urban areas, potentially creating an imbalance favoring cities over rural regions.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead

As the 2024 election approaches, Michigan stands as a microcosm of the national political battle. Cheryl Atkinson’s episode sheds light on the intricacies of Operation Michigan, illustrating how both parties are adapting their strategies in response to shifting voter sentiments and legal challenges. With Republicans focusing on early voting and election integrity, and Democrats capitalizing on Harris's revitalized campaign, the state's outcome remains highly uncertain and fiercely contested.

The episode underscores the critical importance of Michigan in determining the presidential race outcome, emphasizing that the strategies and voter dynamics observed here will likely resonate across other pivotal swing states. As both parties jockey for dominance in Michigan, the episode provides listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the stakes involved and the potential trajectories leading up to Election Day.

Transcript

[Amazon Voice]

Hey prime members, have you heard? You can listen to your favorite podcasts ad free. Good news With Amazon Music, you have access to the largest catalog of ad Free top podcasts included with your prime membership. To start listening, download the Amazon Music app for free or go to Amazon.com ad free podcast that's Amazon.com ad free podcast to catch up on the latest episodes without the ads.

[Cheryl Atkinson]

Hi everybody, Cheryl Atkinson here. Welcome to another edition of Full Measure. After Hours today, a crucial battleground operation Michigan. Today we're going to get some insight from my visit to a key swing state to look at the Trump and Harris efforts to seal the deal for 2024. Republicans, it seems, are focusing a lot on election integrity and getting out the early vote, while Democrats, from what I can tell, are quite energized by Biden's withdrawal from the race this week. Sunday on Full Measure, I'll be reporting from Michigan as we'll be reporting from other key swing states as we build up to the 2024 election. From the time that I planned my trip to Michigan until the time I got there, things had turned quite a bit. Biden dropped out and Trump went from what seemed like a pretty comfortable lead to a very tight race where then he seems to have fallen behind. What I did hear from voters on the ground, well, you'll hear from them Sunday, September 15th in my cover story. But interestingly, what I learned is that in Michigan, like several states, the vast majority of the state geographically is Republican. It's just a couple of places near the big cities that lean Democrat, and that's where the election can be decided. Republicans are focusing on, as you'll hear from a Republican official in a moment, getting out the early vote. He'll explain why that makes sense. It has to do with more than just getting people who are going to vote anyway to vote early because why would that make a difference? He'll explain how it could help them. Democrats really do seem energized. The ones I ran into and talked to were not enthused, to say the least, to vote for Joe Biden. I don't know if some of them would have stayed home. One woman said she was planning to write in the vote for God because she didn't want to vote for Trump, but she also didn't want to vote for Biden. So when Harris came on the scene, people got really enthused. Those who don't like Trump and when I ask them why, by and large they don't have a policy reason, which kind of makes sense since she hasn't really talked too much about that. They pretty much just don't like Donald Trump and they want to vote for somebody else. And Harris's entry into the race gives them the chance to vote for a Democrat who's not Joe Biden, because even hardcore Democrats were very concerned, not feeling good about voting for Biden again. In today's podcast, you're going to hear a nuts and bolts analysis from a Michigan political scientist. Quite interesting. But first, the Republican in charge of getting out the vote in Michigan, Pete Hoekstra.

[Interviewer]

What's it been like the past month or so being chairman of the Michigan Republican Party?

[Pete Hoekstra]

It's been, it's obviously very, very exciting. I mean, right now we're in the midst of, we're going to have J.D. vance, we're going to have Ben Carson, we're going to have the president maybe twice, and then Christine Ohm. So six visits in a span of three weeks. So clearly it's ground zero. We win Michigan, we win the presidency, we win Michigan, we win an open Senate seat, we take control of the Senate. We've got a couple of openings for in Congress that we can win. So it's pretty exciting.

[Interviewer]

How do you feel about the momentum? There's still time before the election for things to shift, but how are you feeling on the momentum?

[Pete Hoekstra]

I think we had great momentum. I think we kind of hit a little bit of a brick wall with Biden, you know, being pulled out, Harris moving in. But, but I think it's going to come back as soon as we start talking about, you know, the issues. When we're talking about the issues, when we go into the UAW and talk about their plan for electric vehicles, we win. We're talking about inflation, we win. If we get distracted, you know, that's when we have a problem.

[Interviewer]

What is the importance of a swing state in general? It just seems like I don't know if it's always been this way when it's goes by. I haven't watched elections, I'm not a political reporter for many years, but swing states, it seems like most of the states are given either blue or red. And then there's just a couple of swing states that decide the whole thing.

[Pete Hoekstra]

Yeah, I mean, that's, you know, that's, that's the way it plays out. And can, you know, Michigan moves between being a blue state and moving into being a swing state and possibly going red. We obviously we did it in 2016. We think we can do it again in 2024. But, you know, it means we Sometimes have an identity crisis. But every election cycle, we're pretty confident that there's going to be a lot of attention paid on us. And, you know, that's a really positive thing.

[Interviewer]

With the election that close in a state like this, is there a lot of pressure on you personally and the people that work with you and organize to get out every single vote that could possibly go in your direction?

[Pete Hoekstra]

There's a tremendous amount of pressure to drive out the vote. There's a tremendous amount of pressure in this cycle to make sure that we've got election integrity. A lot of concerns about what happens in the city of Detroit, what happens in Wayne County. And we still have 50 counties. You got to think about this. We have 53 counties out of 83 in Michigan that have more registered voters than eligible voters.

[Interviewer]

So that's not possible.

[Pete Hoekstra]

That's not possible. Right. But it is in Michigan. So, you know, we're working very, very closely with, you know, the National Committee to go in and get as much of that corrected in the voter files, cleaned up before the election.

[Interviewer]

What concrete things are being done, if anything, you can point to differently this time in, say, Detroit or places where people thought there might not have. They might not have had full confidence, at least. Republicans.

[Pete Hoekstra]

Yeah, no, I mean, there's a full effort in terms of, on a legal basis to go after, you know, the Secretary of State came out and said, yeah, well, if someone signs for an absentee ballot or those types of things, you just have to assume it's the correct signature. And it's kind of like, no, the law says you actually have to go and verify. So we filed a lawsuit on that. We won. And so I think that the legal front is very, very much out front in getting done what we can get done before the election. The other thing that's happening is I think we're up to close to 100 people on the ground, you know, identifying them, telling them exactly what we need to do as we get closer to when voting opens. And I think the third thing that's fundamentally different between this and 2020 is Donald Trump is saying vote early before he was saying, you know, the other cycles, he's been talking about, you know, vote on election Day. That's where we've got the cleanest process. And now he's saying, you know, vote the day voting opens. And so our motto is, let's win every single day, whether that's 30 days of voting, whether that's 45 days of voting, voting. But if we win every day, then we win the Election.

[Interviewer]

I've wondered about this. How does that help you unless there's more cumulative votes? Because if everybody's voting on one day or it's spread out, it's the same number of votes.

[Pete Hoekstra]

No, you gotta. Obviously how that benefits us is, you know, we can track who's voted. So as we get closer and closer to election day, the people that we need to vote focus on starts to shrink. Or we can just expand our universe to low propensity voters and those types of things. So, you know, once you bank the vote, it's not like, okay, don't have to deal with that person anymore, other than maybe contacting them and saying, hey, get your friends to come in and vote now. So it does fundamentally change the strategy. And it also takes the risk out of what the weather is like on election day if we have banked the votes. I know that we just had a primary week and a half ago. We've had a fantastic summer. On primary day. All morning it was raining and raining very, very hard. I could feel Diane, I had to go somewhere else. I'm not going to go vote. But state party chairman, I had to go vote. But if I was having second thoughts, you can imagine there's a lot of people that were going to go vote that Tuesday morning and probably decided, you know what, there's not that many issues on the ballot. We're not going in. And so bank the vote early. Decreases the uncertainty as you get closer to election day.

[Interviewer]

So is it true in most states that the parties can track with precision who voted already and who didn't?

[Pete Hoekstra]

Yes.

[Interviewer]

By name.

[Pete Hoekstra]

By name.

[Interviewer]

Wow. Yeah, I didn't know that.

[Pete Hoekstra]

Yeah. And so like, and you could see it in our primary results. You know, typically Democrats turn out earlier. They have more early voting than what Republicans do on primary day. This year in Michigan, we had more Republicans vote early than we did Democrats. So that is, that's an encouraging trend that says, okay, more Republicans are open to voting early.

[Interviewer]

You've seen a lot of elections. Any just overarching thoughts about this one?

[Pete Hoekstra]

I mean, you know, it's, you know, we've got the same candidate on the Republican side third time in a row running against three different Democrats. Yeah, we'll have, you know, out of the four candidates, you know, three of them will be brand new. I guess not. Harris has been on the VP side, but at the top of the ticket and, you know, again, a tremendous amount of interest and, you know, Donald Trump just generates a tremendous amount of excitement, a tremendous amount of energy and energy on both sides, on the Republican side and on the Democratic side.

[Cheryl Atkinson]

Next, political scientist David Takitake with a hard read on Michigan's political landscape.

[Amazon Voice]

Why get all your holiday decorations delivered through Instacart? Because maybe you only bought two wreaths but have 12 windows. Or maybe your toddler got very eager with the Advent calendar. Or maybe the inflatable snowman didn't make it through the snowstorm. Or maybe the twinkle lights aren't twinkling. Whatever the reason, this season Instacart's here for hosts and their whole holiday haul. Get decorations from the Home Depot, CVS and more through Instacart and enjoy free delivery on your first three orders, service fees and terms apply.

[Instacart Voice]

You know that feeling when your favorite brand really gets you Deliver that feeling to your customers every time. Memorable moments like these are key to building your business and your brand. Klaviyo turns your customer data into real time connections across AI powered email, SMS and more. Making every moment count so you can continue to build smarter, more meaningful relationships with your customers. Build smarter digital relationships with your customers and make every moment count with Klaviyo. Learn more at K l a v I-Y-O.com BFCM.

[David Takitake]

Michigan has been actually a very diverse purple state. Throughout much of its history, we've seen changes in its political ideology. Significantly in its early years, we had both Republican statewide electeds as well as Democratic statewide electeds. In recent years, we've seen it flip back and forth both in terms of our state House and Senate and in terms of our statewide electeds and differences in the 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. So Michigan's a purple state.

[Interviewer]

Is it unusual that a state would go for one president or presidential candidate and then after he's elected, turn on him the next time when he goes for reelection?

[David Takitake]

So that kind of change, especially quite so close in between each other, is not super common. But with Michigan being such a purple state and so much in play, and really the small margin of votes that we saw 2016, Donald Trump won by about 110,000 votes. 2020, Joe Biden won by about 150,000 votes. It's like a 4% swing in the electorate. So with a close state, that close, it's very possible.

[Interviewer]

Okay, so it's, I read and I probably misread that it was like 11,000 votes in 2016.

[David Takitake]

Yeah, that's not, not Michigan. That's a different state. Yeah.

[Interviewer]

Okay, so what do you see as your forecast? What's happening in Michigan now with all.

[David Takitake]

The upheaval, the upheaval is the right word to lead into that. Because if you'd asked me a few weeks ago, I would have said it looks like Donald Trump is on a flight path to winning Michigan. Most of the polls showed him ahead and some of the demographics and people who I've talked to. The enthusiasm gap seemed to be pretty dramatic with the ascension of Vice President Harris to the Democratic nomination and her choice of a kind of a true blood Midwesterner in Governor Walt. I've seen a very significant shift that's not only played out in enthusiasm in the polls today. I'd have to say it looks like Harris is going to take Michigan.

[Interviewer]

Harris obviously has been there for four years, does many would say doesn't have a strong track record is her main appeal. Do you think that she's not Donald Trump?

[David Takitake]

That's a significant part of what I am hearing right. There were a lot of people who were like, we don't want the two old guys. Right. Well, one of the parties seems to have switched that up and done with someone who isn't one of the old guys. I do believe there are people who see some benefit in both her Senate experience, the way that she grilled some of our Supreme Court nominees, and in the way that she's been very, very vocal on issues regulating to her race and her gender, her experience as a prosecutor. But a lot of people, it is much more visceral than that. It is, you know, they recognize she represents something different than what they've had or what was on offer just a few months ago. And that seems to be.

[Interviewer]

You could say, again, she represents.

[David Takitake]

Yeah, yeah, right. She represents something very different than what was on offer just a few months ago. And that seems to be a strong motivation for lot of the people I'm talking to.

[Interviewer]

What are your thoughts about the notion that everybody has a vote?

[Amazon Voice]

Of course.

[Interviewer]

But there's little mystery in a lot of states as to how it's going to come out. And the elections are boiling down to a couple of states and really a couple of cities in effect, in a few states. What are your thoughts about that?

[David Takitake]

So it's my job as a political scientist to point out this is the system we've designed for ourselves. You know, we have divided up our national popular vote into states and we've divided that into electoral college votes. And that is the system we're working with. And that does create a more important. I'm going to wait for them again here. That does give leverage to specific states. Now, populations center around urban areas. Higher populations will generally gravitate to cities or be around cities. So yeah, you know, your areas of highest concentration in a small d democratic system are going to carry more weight than large unpopulated rural areas. And unfortunately, when it comes to issues and identity and politics, that can sometimes create a sense of imbalance. You know, there are other systems we could entertain. It would require a lot of popular support to change to one of those. But this is the way our system has been designed. So yeah, it does create a sense.

[Interviewer]

Of imbalance on a national level. Obviously it's going to be impossible to tell until election night if we even know then who the winner is.

[Amazon Voice]

But.

[Interviewer]

But do you have any gut feelings? And a lot could change between now and then, but do you have any gut feelings right now?

[David Takitake]

So again, my opinion has changed in the last several weeks. If you'd asked me before Biden stepped out, especially after the debate, I would have said it looks like we'll be inaugurating a President Trump in January of 2025. Now, with the way we've seen the motion in the swing states, with the tremendous fundraising, with the change in tenor and enthusiasm amongst the left and left leaning moderates, I would say right now it's Harris back on top. But there's still a lot of election between now and then. And you know, we still have yet to see exactly how the debates are going to go even between our vice presidential candidates. So there's a lot of engagement left to happen. But right now I'd say the, the political winds seem to have shifted.

[Pete Hoekstra]

What I can think of is maybe something like the winner of Michigan did what since successfully.

[Interviewer]

What do you mean we don't have a winner yet? You mean in the past?

[Pete Hoekstra]

What will the winner of Michigan do? What will they do?

[David Takitake]

Yeah, sure.

[Interviewer]

What does it take to win Michigan? What does it take to win Michigan?

[David Takitake]

So because of Michigan is a diverse state because we have voters who are strongly allied with both parties and a significant number of independents who do move back and forth between elections or who can be activated or deactivated, depending on their enthusiasm. I think if you're going to win Michigan, you have to speak to blue collar manufacturing issues. You've got to address some of the integrity issues that are really important to the state of Michigan. Michiganders kind of like to see themselves as people who don't suffer a lot of fools or deal with a lot of nonsense. You probably also have to make at least some commentary towards things like conservation and the environment. Even if you're not somebody who's a strong environmentalist. We have a lot of sportsmen and a lot of people who enjoy the outdoors. Michigan is a strong agricultural base. So I think you need to address both the kitchen table issues and you need to be a person who exhibits the leadership, the balance, the character to position Michigan and the rest of the country for success moving forward.

[Interviewer]

I think it's interesting, by the time this airs, Harris will have done a debate and will have given some interviews, but she's captured enthusiasm without having done really anything. What does that tell you?

[David Takitake]

It tells me you've got some savvy people in her campaign because realistically, the idea of doing debates and you see the same thing with Donald Trump kind of stepping back right now from the campaign stage. Both of them can do themselves more damage than good by making trip ups on the national stage. If you've got a massive wave of support and enthusiasm going for your campaign, don't step on a rake. And I would say that to either campaign. When I heard that Donald Trump was kind of pulling back, I'm like, yeah, that makes a lot of sense, right? He wants to spend time trying to define Governor Walts and trying to define, you know, Vice President Harris and her new candidacy. Get him back off the stage and let them do that same thing with Harris and Waltz. You know, they've got this momentum running. Let that run out, you know, ride that wave. Don't do anything that's going to interrupt that. So in terms of political strategy, I see exactly why they're both doing it.

[Cheryl Atkinson]

I hope you enjoyed today's podcast and that if you did, you will share it with your friends and leave us a terrific review. Check out my other podcast, the Cheryl Atkinson Podcast, and I hope you'll consider ordering my new book just out. Follow the Science How Big Pharma Misleads, Obscures and Prevails. It's already an Amazon bestseller. A great gift for someone you care about who recognizes that something is seriously wrong with our health care system, all the money we're spending as we become sicker and sicker with chronic diseases. This book is a great way to take back control of your health. Do your own research, make up your own mind, think for yourself.