Full Measure After Hours

Episode: Mexico Misfire: How Mexican Govt Guns Are Fueling Cartel Violence

Host: Sharyl Attkisson
Date: October 23, 2025

Episode Overview

In this revealing episode, investigative reporter Sharyl Attkisson challenges the entrenched narrative that U.S. civilian gun sales are the main contributor to cartel violence in Mexico. Instead, she presents evidence and expert insights demonstrating that legally purchased U.S. firearms, funneled through the Mexican government with official approval, are a primary source of weaponry for Mexico’s criminal cartels. Drawing on her own previous reporting and a detailed interview with John Dodson, retired ATF Special Agent and whistleblower on Operation Fast and Furious, Attkisson uncovers how policy, misreporting, and interagency issues perpetuate the problem—and what could be done to change it.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Breaking the Prevailing Narrative

• Common Narrative: U.S. civilian firearms market, especially lax gun laws, are blamed for weapons ending up with Mexican cartels, driving violence across the border.
• Attkisson's Thesis: The main supply does not stem from gun shops or illegal cross-border trafficking but instead from legal government-to-government sales and direct purchases by Mexican authorities.

2. Fast and Furious & the Data Nobody Talks About (04:50–08:00)

• John Dodson’s Experience:
  • Spent 15 years at ATF, focused on firearms trafficking at the Southwest border.
  • Discovered that “the top source dealer of firearms being recovered in Mexico” was not U.S. gun dealers but the “government of Mexico” itself.
• Quote [05:32]:
  • John Dodson:

    "Plug in the data—government of Mexico."

• Systemic Ignorance or Willful Blindness:
  • Dodson repeatedly reported this finding through every level of ATF and DOJ, but the narrative in public and policy spaces remained unchanged.
  • Quote [05:45]:

    "I've been pounding this drum for what, almost 16 years now...and nothing has changed."

3. How U.S. Guns End Up with the Cartels (09:00–12:30)

• Tracing System Limitations:
  • U.S. tracing systems (E Trace) only effectively identify firearms with a U.S. nexus, failing to account for other foreign-sourced weaponry.
  • Quote [09:02]:

    "The tracing system as it exists can only successfully trace firearms with the US nexus."

• Legal Supply Chain:
  • The bulk of U.S. guns in Mexico come from legal sales:
    • Direct government-to-government surplus sales.
    • Purchases by Mexican entities using special federal firearms licenses (FFL), known as "Z number FFLs."
  • These include military-grade weapons not typically sold to civilians in either country.

4. Misreporting & Policy Implications (13:00–17:00)

• Data Skew:
  • Only guns traceable to the U.S. are included in stats, omitting large numbers of crime guns of Chinese, Romanian, or other origins.
  • Dodson Calculation [15:10]:

    "Upwards of 75%...are direct purchases by the Mexican government from US manufacturers."

  • This misleads public policy and fosters lawsuits against U.S. gun dealers.
• Quote [16:06]:

  "The US civilian firearms market is to blame for the violence and the firearms activity in Mexico. And that is simply not the case."

5. The U.S. and Mexican Governments’ Role

• Why Are Guns Sold?

  • Rooted in U.S.-funded initiatives (such as the Mérida Initiative) to combat Mexican drug cartels, which included equipment and military-grade firearm transfers.
  • Quote [10:15]:

    "They needed to get the equipment to combat the Mexican drug cartels. So we started...providing them with military surplus equipment, helicopters, firearms..."

• Mexican Government Regulations:

  • Strict laws limit private firearm ownership in Mexico; most AR-type and machine guns are government-issued but often diverted to cartels.

6. The Real Numbers and What They Mean (17:02–22:00)

• Leaky Chain:
  • Significant volumes of legally purchased weapons are diverted from government arsenals to criminal groups.
  • Agents, policymakers, and diplomats lack crucial, honest data about the sources and end-use of these arms.
  • Quote [17:12]:

    "How many firearms during any given period did Mexico purchase? And then how many of those were ultimately recovered in crimes?"

  • Dodson's Prescription:
    • Cease all firearm sales to Mexican government entities.
    • Demand strict, transparent accounting for weapons already supplied.
    • Re-evaluate negotiation leverage in U.S.-Mexico relations.

7. Policy and Public Narrative: The Need for Truth (20:09–25:22)

• Misguided Calls for Stricter U.S. Gun Laws

  • The prevailing story pushes for domestic reforms that would have minimal impact on the real problem.
  • Quote [20:09]:

    "The most important part...is the vast majority...are purchased legally, exported legally...then they're diverted to the black market once south of the border."

• The Data Is There—If Policymakers Want to See It:

  • E Trace reports clearly show the Mexican government as the number one source, but this is rarely communicated publicly or to decision-makers.
  • Quote [22:08]:

    "The number one dealer on that every time is the Mexican government for whatever 12 month period you want to pick."

• Final Rebuke & Solution:

  • Quote [24:43]:

    "You cut the direct...ability for the Mexican government to directly purchase firearms... You can single handedly...stop this 70% in no time."

  • The U.S. is both fighting cartel violence and, via other government agencies, inadvertently arming the very groups they are combating.
  • Dodson urges transparency and accountability:
    • "Speak the truth to power, whether it's good, bad or ugly." [24:43]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Dodson’s Shock at the Data [05:40]:
  • "Yeah, flabbergast."
• On Government Inaction [05:45]:
  • "I brought this up to every supervisor I've had with ATF since 2009... nothing has changed."
• On Policy Outcomes [17:12]:
  • "If you don't solve this problem, if you don't fix this, it's just going to continue."
• On the Incongruity of U.S. Policy [24:43]:
  • "Meanwhile, in another ring of the Pentagon, someone is authorizing the direct sales of US surplus military surplus firearms to the Mexican government which you know now is going to be diverted in the hands of the cartel."
• On Required Action [24:43]:
  • "You want to stop arming the cartels, you don't need more gun laws. ...You can single handedly...stop this 70% in no time."

Key Timestamps

• 01:05–04:50 — Sharyl Attkisson outlines the mainstream narrative and introduces John Dodson.
• 04:50–08:00 — Dodson explains discovering the Mexican government as the top source of traceable firearms in Mexico.
• 09:00–12:30 — The mechanics of legal gun exports and tracing limitations.
• 13:00–17:00 — Data misrepresentation and its policy impacts.
• 17:02–22:00 — The true scale of diverted government guns and practical solutions.
• 22:00–25:22 — The absurdity of current policy efforts and a call for transparent, truthful action.

Conclusion

This episode decisively recasts the gun violence debate on the U.S.-Mexico border. The most significant pipeline of cartel weaponry traces back not to shady American gun dealers but to the very governments—through legal transactions gone off course. Both public perception and official policy appear deeply misaligned with reality, perpetuating ineffective solutions while the real problem persists. Dodson and Attkisson make the case for immediate transparency, a halt to government-to-government sales, and a demand for rigorous accounting—urging policymakers to "speak the truth to power" and stop fueling the violence they claim to oppose.