Full Measure After Hours: After Hours — Misleading Crime Statistics
Host: Sharyl Attkisson
Release Date: January 9, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of Full Measure After Hours, host Sharyl Attkisson delves deep into the contentious issue of crime statistics in America. Titled "Misleading Crime Statistics," the episode features an insightful interview with John Lott, a renowned expert on crime statistics. The discussion uncovers how crime data is manipulated and politicized, particularly under the Biden administration, raising questions about the true state of crime in the United States.

Politicization and Manipulation of Crime Statistics

The conversation begins with Cheryl Akisson (note: likely a transcription error, as the host is Sharyl Attkisson) highlighting the debates surrounding America's violent crime rates and the impact of illegal immigration. She references a pivotal moment during a presidential debate where former President Donald Trump cited rising violent crime rates, only to have the moderator counter with supposedly accurate FBI statistics. However, she points out that the FBI later revised these statistics, revealing a significant increase in violent crime contrary to initial reports.

Cheryl Akisson [00:04]:
"Whether it's America's violent crime rate as measured by the FBI or crimes committed by illegal immigrants, expert John Lott says there are countless ways the statistics and our minds are being manipulated."

John Lott's Expertise and Observations

John Lott introduces his extensive background in crime statistics, emphasizing his roles in the Department of Justice and various academic institutions. He expresses growing concern over the politicization of crime data, noting a marked increase in manipulation within the past decade.

John Lott [02:34]:
"I think it's gotten a lot worse in the last few years. Maybe over the last decade or so, it's gotten a lot worse."

Changes in FBI Reporting Standards

Lott explains significant changes in how crime data is reported to the FBI. Prior to 2021, 97% of police departments submitted complete crime data. However, by 2022, only 31% of departments provided full reports, with 24% only partially reporting. This drastic reduction hampers the FBI's ability to accurately track crime trends.

John Lott [04:20]:
"Starting in 2021, they had a new system for reporting this data to the FBI from police departments around the country... In 2022, 31% of police departments didn't report any crime data to the FBI."

Discrepancies Between Reported and Total Crimes

The host and Lott discuss the divergence between FBI-reported crime data and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) statistics. While the FBI reported a 2% drop in violent crime in 2022, the CDC indicated a 42% increase in violent crimes based on national victimization surveys. This inconsistency suggests that reported crimes do not accurately reflect the true crime landscape.

John Lott [05:16]:
"Before 2020, those numbers tended to go up and down together. Since 2020, they've been going in completely opposite directions."

Impact of Defunding and Reduced Police Presence

Lott attributes the manipulation of crime statistics to factors such as police defunding, retirements, and the hiring of less experienced officers. He notes a significant drop in arrest rates for both violent (55% decrease) and property crimes (65% decrease) in major cities, which he links to the reduced effectiveness of law enforcement.

John Lott [08:15]:
"I think it tells you something about the defunding of the police... If you look at reported violent crime with the FBI for cities over a million, the arrest rate for violent crime has fallen by 55%... and you know you have a situation where that's just reported crime."

Underreporting of Crimes

The discussion highlights how changes in reporting mechanisms have led to a substantial increase in unreported crimes. Lott explains that the media often cites reported crime rates, which no longer correlate with actual crime trends due to decreased reporting and increased barriers for victims.

John Lott [10:02]:
"What looks like on paper a reduction in crime may be the result of many other things... fewer police to handle the crimes, fewer prosecutors prosecuting the crimes."

Relationship Between Illegal Immigration and Crime Rates

Lott addresses the contentious topic of illegal immigration and its impact on crime. He differentiates between legal and illegal immigrants, asserting that while legal immigrants have low crime rates, illegal immigrants exhibit significantly higher rates of violent crimes. However, political biases often conflate these groups, obscuring the true data.

John Lott [15:13]:
"Violent crime during the Biden administration, I think it's gone up by about 43% since he's been president... many millions of illegals coming into the country and violent crime is falling."

Media Bias and the Role of Artificial Intelligence

The episode transitions to the influence of media and artificial intelligence in shaping public perception of crime statistics. Lott critiques how AI-driven platforms may perpetuate liberal biases, undermining accurate representations of crime data. He references studies showing that AI chatbots often provide answers that contradict factual data, raising concerns about information manipulation.

John Lott [18:14]:
"All of them were kind of very liberally biased on average, when it came to overall questions about crime and policing."

Skepticism Towards Government Data

Lott emphasizes the need for public skepticism regarding government-reported crime data. He recounts his experiences in the Department of Justice, where data errors were often ignored or unrectified, eroding trust in official statistics.

John Lott [21:09]:
"If you had asked me 20 years ago to have the skepticism I have about government data today, I wouldn't have had that reaction."

Advice for Information Consumers

Concluding the interview, Lott advises listeners to critically evaluate crime statistics and seek out comprehensive data sources. He encourages reliance on both FBI reports and the Bureau of Justice Statistics' victimization surveys to gain a more accurate understanding of crime trends.

John Lott [22:19]:
"I just would be really, you know, skeptical about most of the stuff you hear right now... But at least hopefully, people begin to try."

Conclusion

The episode wraps up with Cheryl Akisson reiterating the importance of the discussed issues and directing listeners to watch the full story on January 12th. She underscores the necessity for the public to engage with accurate data and remain vigilant against the manipulation of crime statistics.

Cheryl Akisson [23:57]:
"There's a lot more to this story, and I will have that as my cover story on Sunday, January 12th on full measure."

Key Takeaways

• Manipulation of Data: Crime statistics in the U.S. have become increasingly politicized, with significant changes in reporting standards leading to discrepancies between reported and actual crime rates.

• Decline in Reporting: A substantial number of police departments have ceased or reduced crime data submissions to the FBI, undermining the reliability of national crime statistics.

• Impact of Policing Practices: Defunding and understaffing of police forces have contributed to lower arrest rates and increased unreported crimes.

• Illegal Immigration: There is a notable difference in crime rates between legal and illegal immigrants, with the latter group associated with higher rates of violent crimes.

• Media and AI Bias: Media outlets and AI platforms may present biased interpretations of crime data, further complicating public understanding.

• Need for Skepticism: Consumers of information should critically assess crime statistics, considering multiple data sources to form an accurate view of crime trends in America.

This comprehensive exploration by Sharyl Attkisson and John Lott provides a critical lens through which to view contemporary crime statistics, urging listeners to seek out the truth amidst manipulated narratives.