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- [00:00]
A
The S&P 500 is at a record high and I'm sitting down with the perfect person to talk about it. We have Jay woods, chief market strategist of Freedom Capital Markets on the show today. We get into a bunch of single name stocks. His favorite sectors in the S&P 500, the sectors that he would not touch right now because he's too bearish and much more. This is a must listen conversation if you're interested in earnings macro where the stock market is going for the rest of the year and more. Jay, it is so good to see you. I want to get right into. We're at the record high. Stock market margins have been looking really good. Earnings are looking really good. What do you make of all that positivity with the negative sentiment that's happening in the market right now?
- [00:43]
B
Yeah, this is and has been a crazy market. If you told me we'd be breaking out to new highs with the backdrop of oil stabling over $90 and the backdrop of what's going on in this conflict, it would have been tough to fathom. But the key word there is earnings. Earnings growth continues and earnings and stock activity growth is happening in the right sectors. One of the reasons we failed to really get off the mat was because the leadership was all wrong. We were in these defensive names. Utilities were leading, staples were leading. Energy obviously the biggest leader, up 40% at one point. This is not the kind of leadership you want in a bull market. And what we've seen in the last four, four weeks go back to March 30th. The lows, those lows in March when we bottomed out. What has been on a tear? Semiconductors, I don't think they've had a down day yet. As we tape this, it was an 18 day streak and we're hoping we can get to 19. Those are the names, the generals. Nvidia's back making new highs after breaking down. And this is J.C. perez. From false moves come fast moves in the opposite direction. And a lot of the technicians, myself included, I'm not gonna stand here and say, oh, I saw this coming. The speed at which we rebounded in this month of April was uncharted. And now when you look at the charts as a technician, that's what I do. Woo. It's been a fast recovery and the question is that we head into earnings season, can we maintain that momentum? Because last time when we had some fantastic earnings, we didn't get follow through. And what I want to see is stabilization. Maybe not a follow through, but at Least stabilization at these levels. To me, that's a sign that the market is healthy. And we'll look to the guidance of some of these big companies when they start reporting later this week.
- [02:29]
A
So I know that last year you nailed Your S&P 500 call.
- [02:33]
B
Yeah.
- [02:34]
A
And that was an amazing year. End almost to the T. And you came into this year in December saying a 3 to 5% return in the S&P 500 for 2026.
- [02:44]
B
That's correct.
- [02:45]
A
Are we still standing by that? Where do you fall in this now?
- [02:48]
B
My target hit. Let's just fast forward to December right now and call. And call the year. Yeah. I said one thing, that we're going to have some turbulent times. I thought we'd have a strong first quarter. To be quite honest with you. The war kind of derailed that thesis. But what we're seeing now is strong earnings, and that's what was expected. And now as you play out the rest of the year, you have that midterm election cycle coming into full swing. Let's see how that shakes out. Looks like there's gonna be a change in leadership in the House and possibly the Senate. That actually could be good news for this market because the market does like a mixed government. We get nothing done. And the leaders that lead these 500 companies that make earnings can just kind of do their thing. And then you have a Fed change and Fed leadership. Usually when we get a new Fed leader, they put their stamp on things. And Kevin Warsh, all things considered, he should be approved come May 15. Let's see how that goes. Have a lot to digest between now and then. But he's coming in at a very interesting time. Inflation is still sticky, if you want to call it sticky at best, and ticking a little higher. You have the biggest cost on the consumer. Gas prices still elevated over $4. They have not really come in. If this lasts higher for longer, we got some problems and then unemployment. We just saw Meta and Microsoft announce layoffs. The AI story, which is still the story of the year, that AI is disrupting, ironically, some of these AI stocks and especially in the software space, that isn't going away. So we still have a lot of speed bumps and hurdles to get through. So I think 3 to 5% by year end with some excess volatility. I'll stand by it.
- [04:30]
A
I hope I'm wrong.
- [04:31]
B
I'm a bull long term. I think this is still a secular bull market, but we have a lot of wood to chop. And right now the earnings are the focus and that's a good thing so we can go higher.
- [04:42]
A
So as you say, earnings are the biggest thing this week. Specifically we have five of the seven Magnificent seven names coming up. And my sense is that the Mag seven have lagged this whole year.
- [04:55]
B
Right on the lag seven for a couple months.
- [04:58]
A
Came on the show in December. You said these are the lag 7. I'm wondering, is it possible we see a mean reversion or a catch up trade with the MAG7 coming out of this earnings cycle?
- [05:09]
B
Okay, I think two are in a mean reversion as we go into earnings cycle. Let's talk Meta. Let's talk Microsoft. All right, Meta, as we tape this is right at its 200 day moving average technical level 680. What has it done? Well, the last three earnings, this one included. So the two prior to this, it's been trading right at that level. So we're back to where we were six months ago, waiting for an earnings catalyst. Last two months or two quarters ago it fell and it never recovered. All right, then it rallied and we spiked up and we gapped up 10%. I'm like, all right, Meta's back. Three days later we gave it all back. We broke the 200 day and we sold off another 30%. Now we've had a mean reversion back to that mean which is 680, the 200 day moving average. Waiting, all right, how are we going to react? And then if we react well, does it stay above that average? So that's a barometer of health. I'm not saying I want to be in the name, want to be out of the name, but I'm very curious how the street reacts to a positive beat, positive guidance. Can we maintain it or God forbid they miss because this stock is going right back down to its 50 around 635. So Meta is fascinating. And then you look at the other one, Microsoft, the king of the software stocks. You know, I don't know how software heavy Microsoft is, but when you look at the igv, there's your, you know, your North Star. That stock is reverted off of its lows, held some key moving averages going back five years, but it still has a lot of wood to chop just to get back to its 200 day moving average. I want to hear what the guide is and how the street reacts to it. This copilot, I don't know if you've used copilot. I don't want to.
- [06:45]
A
No one I know uses copilot.
- [06:47]
B
You know, this is a big hyped. Event. I want to see what they're saying with the copilot rollout. I'm a little concerned with that. But Azure and the cloud growth has been phenomenal. So I suspect they'll beat, they'll do well, they'll guide. All right, but how will the market react? Because good guidance and good beats were not always rewarded and those two stocks were the poster child of that. Now when you want to look at the good side of the mag, seven, look at Alphabet. All right, nothing had changed yet the stock got swept down with everybody else. And now we're trading at all time highs as we go into earnings. This is positive. Amazon. This is the most frustrating stock in the world. As an Amazon shareholder, as someone that just believes in this stock on all metrics, whether it's aws, their Amazon prime, everything they do, getting into sports through they're doing all the right things. Yet it took a while for that stock to finally climb and it did it on no news. And now we're breaking out to new highs as we go into earnings. So I have no crystal ball on how the street's gonna react. But technically we broke out. We wanna stay above those recent breakouts. 245, 250. If we can stay above that, then we chop a little, we tread water, we go higher. That's great. And then Apple, we've all forgotten about Apple. New CEO didn't really do much. The stock has done well. It's become a utility. So I'm not really thinking that Apple's gonna move the needle. And then all eyes go to the. What do we wanna call Nvidia? I mean the biggest stock in the world, the 520 is the earnings there. That stock had broken down. Fake out fast, move the other way. Now we're making new highs. I did not see that coming. I thought it would churn until we got into earnings. But when you talk about their earnings, who's been crushing on all cylinders better than Nvidia? Nobody. Now it's a $5 trillion market cap, justifiably so. The PE ratio which as a technician I know, but I don't really care about still historically, historically isn't that overvalued. So to me, Nvidia is the cream of the crop. It's breaking out. I suspect they'll have a great earnings now will react positively. I think we will because that base is long. And I think Nvidia, I think Broadcom. And then you look at Micron and Sandisk, unstoppable. And that's where it is. What we're seeing is intra sector rotation. Not intersector rotation. Intra within. Like intramural within these. I'm going back to my Latin roots back in my high school and the Jesuits in college for that matter. But the rotation in technology software. Done for now. And we're trying to shift out who can the winners and losers can be. And you know those mega caps in Nvidia and Sandisk and Micron and Broadcom crushing it. And there's no reason to say they won't continue.
- [09:38]
A
Some of you may not have heard this, but our partners at Public just launched something called generated assets. It brings AI into investing in a way I've honestly not seen before. Here's how it works. You type in an idea like AI powered supply chain companies with positive free cash flow, or something like defense tech companies growing revenue over 25% year over year. Publix AI then dispatches a swarm of agents that can scan every single stock, evaluate them, and instantly build a custom index around your thesis. What really stands out is how clearly it explains why each stock is included. And before you invest, you can even backtest your idea against the S&P 500. So you're making decisions with real context and not just guessing. Beyond generated assets, Public lets you invest in stocks, bonds, options, crypto, all in one place. They'll even give you an uncapped 1% match when you transfer your investments over from another platform. If you want to build a portfolio that actually reflects your thesis, visit public.com openingbell that's public.com openingbell now let's get back to the conversation. You always have such a amazing pulse of the market and you break down the earnings picture so well. Jay, let me ask you about this semiconductor craze we've seen, as you said, 18 day, I think, in a row win streak. Typically, when you see this crazy of a parabolic move in any sector, usually it doesn't end super well. But right now I'm wondering if we can even use historical analogs for something like this. Given where we are in this AI
- [11:17]
B
cycle, we'll always make up one if we don't have one. But each time is a little different. But history doesn't necessarily repeat. It rhymes. Mark Twain and Ryan Dietrich. Every time I see Ryan, shout out to Ryan. But no, with these stocks, it's an earning story first. And if you look at the market cap, they're not overvalued. So when I see a Micron, a sandisk, and the stocks on their heels continue to climb, it's justifiable. As someone that owns SanDisk, I'm a little nervous. I should be taking some off the table and I will before earnings, which are on Thursday. And I hope I kick myself, I really do. The run has been tremendous, but as someone that manages risk and these stocks have become too big in certain portfolios given the runs, yeah, I would scale back going into earnings and see where the dust clears. But it wouldn't shock me to hear stock splits and that could get the retail investor extremely excited. And all of a sudden instead of one you have 400 shares or whatever it happens to be. But the momentum continues to be there. The capex spend is the story that keeps the wind in their sails and it's not slowing down. So watch capex when it comes to Meta and Microsoft when they report Amazon. These are companies that have not slowed down their spend and I don't anticipate they will, but if they do, maybe that will cause a little bit of a blip. But these stocks are in strong uptrends, a little overbought, they should pull back. But the pullbacks, if you bought them and you thought you bought SanDisk at 550 to 600 and you thought you were out of your mind after the run up it had, you're pretty happy you did. Now we have some straight up areas where they can flag in technical terms and a third of this rally comes back. If SanDisk comes into 800, it may feel like the end of the world 20% bear market. No, it's just a healthy correction along a very strong uptrend going forward.
- [13:12]
A
So from what I can tell, the names you're bringing up, Micron, sandisk are very popular among retail. They're always flying around on Twitter and X from your view, working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Are these names also popular among institutional desks?
- [13:30]
B
Without question. I mean, these are the biggest stocks, the biggest stories in the world. And when the retail desk and the retail investors are craving for it, that's what wakes up the institutions. All right, we learned this during the GameStop and the AMC craze. Now institutions are smart enough not to get too involved in it, but when you see a buzz about something, you look under the hood and say, what is this all about? There are some names, we've seen it with Quantum stocks, where they had their run, they pulled back. The nuclear stocks, they had a ridiculous run, they pulled back, but now they're getting to valuations. That looks interesting. A rigetti, which is a darling, is back to A level, technically. This looks interesting. Valuation. Okay, now we're back to normalcy. Let's see how our earnings come out. Oklo. Oklo got destroyed, but if you ran that up and didn't take profits. So we may see that in some of these other names, but the overall trends, I think long term, you know, we're getting a little overextended. A pullback is an opportunity for someone that has been watching from the sidelines to get in, including some of these institutions that have missed it.
- [14:33]
A
Yeah, I think that makes sense. Everyone today continues to try to draw historical comparisons to where we're at today. It is what we do. I'm wondering, you've been trading in this market for a very long time, longer than I have. And do you see any weight to the dot com comparisons right now?
- [14:55]
B
Yeah, we've seen it, but this is a little more, you know, pocket related. Like you see quickpockets.com, the tide lifted most of the boats. There was more of a buzz. Now the speed is so different now and that's the biggest difference, the speed at which this market moves. Just look at this move in semiconductors, up 40% since March 30. Are you kidding me? You know, the dot com, there was euphoria, there were a lot of IPOs. I don't see that. And I think that's how this will end. When we get all these AI stocks going public, when there are nuclear stocks which are in the chamber, starting to go public and the retail investors start pouring into these names. We've tried, we haven't been successful. And that's one of the next legs to this bull market where I feel we'll be towards the end of it. I don't think we're there because the growth in these mega caps is warranted and it continues now. You're looking for the next big best thing. And that's where you see Quantum have its day in the sun and nuclear have its day in the sun. These AI storage facilities, their day. And there are a few of them that are just starting to pop, that are interesting. But you know, it's just the speed at which it happens. So what you need to do is you need to feed the ducks in your portfolio and take little positions in some of these and hope one of these are the next big ones and you can ride it to a nice return. But I wouldn't jump all in into one sector over the other. I still am more of a, you know, a basket approach kind of long term investor. But when you're looking at charts every day and seeing where the opportunities are. You see some of these names pop up. Like Ondis is another interesting one that's more in the drone space, in the defense sector. That one's a retail darling that looks like it wants to go and every time it lifts its head, it doesn't. But risk reward is starting to set up favorably. So there are a lot of opportunities out there. We're not in a dot com scenario, I think, where it's just getting out of control. You're shaking your head at the tape because ServiceNow didn't rally. You know, Oracle is not coming back just now. Adobe looks broken. So we're not rushing into all these names that are beaten down thinking, here's the mean reversion. We got it. And that's what happens at tops. Everything goes up and we're not seeing it.
- [17:20]
A
So Jay, let me explain it back to you to make sure I understand.
- [17:23]
B
Okay.
- [17:24]
A
Not a dot com bubble. No. Earnings are looking very good and possibly still improving for a lot of these leaders and tech names. The Iran conflict and oil prices haven't derailed anything. Seemingly we have this rebound. Is there a catalyst that we can point to or even fathom at this point that could derail the bull market?
- [17:48]
B
Interest rates, inflation. We don't expect a new Fed chair to come in and raise rates anytime soon. We may get hawkish tones when Powell speaks on Wednesday. I think Powell is going to talk more about, I hope, the independence importance and you know, try to shape his legacy as he moves on. But yeah, inflation is the biggest thing. Unemployment. We keep hearing about all these job losses, but it hasn't really ticked up. That is a concern. When The President, the CEO of ServiceNow goes on CNBC March 13, you can look up the interview and says that AI is going to replace 30% of the incoming college students jobs. That is a concern. As a professor, I teach grad school at Fordham University. These kids are struggling, these entry level positions. It is very tough for someone to say, yeah, no, we're going to hire you right now. I think there's going to be a void because too many of these companies are relying on AI to do these tasks that usually the junior person does. But in five years when we're looking to bring somebody up the ranks, oh crap, we don't have anyone. And your AI is not going to replace that. Human interaction, human judgment, which I think is vital and the ability to talk to somebody, whether it's a customer or just somebody that can relate experiences. I Think those speak volumes. So I think we're going too fast into the AI. We haven't seen any layoffs just yet. But the hiring, that is not happening, that's going to cause a problem down the road because as the older generation starts to phase out of this market, your bench is not as deep. And if you're relying on AI to be that bench, you may have some problems. I hope I'm wrong, but you may.
- [19:32]
A
I agree with you that the younger generation is getting the short end of the stick here. I wonder, is there anything that, you know, policymakers at the Federal Reserve can even do to juice the labor market besides cut interest rates as far as this AI headwind that's coming up.
- [19:49]
B
Yeah, that's a great question. I don't have an answer for you like oh yeah, easily they could, they could do X, Y or Z. No, I think the Fed, as Jerome Powell has done and yes, he may have been too late in certain cases and he was definitely wrong when he said transitory. But for the most part that data dependent Fed and not jumping to conclusions, no one's jumping to conclusion that inflation is gonna stay elevated for a long period of time because of what's happening on Iran. But it could, the possibility is there. So let's see what the data is. And I think Kevin Warsh will be a data dependent person. He may look at the data a little differently than a Jerome Powell and put his stamp on things. But if unemployment continues to tick up, then yes, we may want to cut rates. But if the inflation side of the equation ticks up, then we have a problem. And it's going to be very interesting to see how they, they navigate what could be really first, you know, problematic six months into his tenure.
- [20:50]
A
Well, I wonder if we put it in the context of equities, record high stocks and the Fed's rate cuts are actually being priced out of the market this year.
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B
Yeah.
- [21:01]
A
So to me I'm wondering, okay, does the market think we're actually going to get rate cuts maybe more than are being priced in, or is the market convinced that it can survive higher for longer, indefinitely? What do you think when you think
- [21:14]
B
rate cuts, you think what would benefit the most? And that's the Russell 2000. What is the leading sector right now? The Russell there is a slight disconnect. It took it a while to participate. That was a long base. It broke out of and I called this is the breakout. This is the breakout. And then we finally got it. I'm like really? This is the breakout. But yes, equities are disconnecting right now from any thought that inflation is going to accelerate. It is in the mode that, all right, we may get one cut by the end of the year. When you look at the CME Group's latest survey, it's a coin flip whether or not we get one by the end of the year. A few people, 10% of the people, say we could get two. I would be shocked if we got one. But the market is not looking at that as it's North Star right now. It is just focused on earnings. And those Mega Cap names continue to hit on all cylinders. And that's the disconnect when everyone's like, oh, it's only seven stocks. Well, guess what? You want those seven stocks to come back. Because when those seven stocks fell, the rest of the broadening was there and the market was able to tread water and sustain minimal losses. But we didn't even go down 10%. How crazy is that? We didn't even have a 10% correction. That happens on average once a year. And when you have headlines like Venezuela that kick off the year and that SCOTUS decision that tariffs may be illegal, we're still waiting on what's gonna happen next. And then this war and the market is at all time highs. I've seen a lot of things. This is not one that I would have predicted, but we'll see. I think Wednesday afternoon, these MAG7 earnings and the guide will be telling not what they do, but what they say going forward. If they raise these concerns that we're talking about right now and then how investors react to it, are they gonna be all in and just ignore some of the red flags that are poking up, or do we tread water a little while longer and I think we retest that 7,000 breakout and go from there. I do believe the lows are in for the year, barring any geopolitical uncertainty. But the geopolitical uncertainty couldn't take us down. So if we get a ridiculous hot inflationary number over the next three months, then maybe we can retest those lows at 6,300. But I think we took the biggest shots the market was giving us, and we've withstood them pretty good.
- [23:38]
A
It's been unbelievably resilient. Nothing's been able to pretty much do anything to dampen the enthusiasm. Jay, if you had to pick out some corners of the market that you like best right now, where would you start?
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B
Well, it's funny. We've talked about intra sector rotation in technology. I'M seeing it in the financials. There's a disconnect between some of the financial areas. You look at Visa, MasterCard, the credit card issuers, they're down 10 to 12% as we tape this. I can't wait for Visa to announce on Tuesday May have already come out but I want to see that guide. Is the consumer pulling back? Are the spending habits changing? We've seen it at the lower end of the K but the upper end of the K where they make most of their money hasn't changed. Let's see what happens with these names. But those big banks. Citibank breaking out to new highs. Goldman Morgan looks phenomenal. JP Morgan struggling a little bit. The biggest banks, if we're going to do these deals that they talk about that are coming down the pike at the end of this year, which I believe they will, then we're going to see the them break out to new highs financials. A very key leg in a bull market to lead. They've been lagging so we've seen rotation and the insurers have been dead. Berkshire, Uncle Warren, you've left us. And the stock has not responded favorably just yet. It looks like it wants to break down. We'll see how the insurer stocks do. So there's a bifurcation just within the financials when you have the big banks hanging on the regional's looking very good but underneath the surface those credit card issuers and those insurers are not. And then healthcare, Healthcare, another bifurcated. My God, the rotation in there. Medical devices look great six months ago and now they're the worst performer. Biotech looks good again. It's kind of stabilized. But when I look at biotech stocks I think that's good. We're trying to fast track some of these drugs. I think that's something this administration has been behind and I think as they go into an election year they gotta focus on this again. Let's you know, hey, Alzheimer's, let's go Biogen, you got a few drugs in the pipe. Can we fast track them? What's going on? And that one's a little more personal to me so I'm hoping that they can. And then you look at UNH, Humana, CVS. These stocks have been beaten down two year downtrends. UnitedHealthcare to me is the poster child of the CVS. The best performer above the 200 day, the rest under. But they've stopped going down and that's the first thing that happens in downtrends. They've gapped up on some good earnings. They're holding those gaps. I've written about UNH on CNBC Pro. You can follow me there. I give a little pro shout out to CNBC Pro where I'm a contributor. But that stock looks like it has a lot to reverse. So I don't think healthcare is going to rush into all sectors because some of these drug companies, Eli Lilly, oh my God, it's breaking down. J.J. doesn't look good. Merck, which I've loved, not rallying. And Pfizer just does nothing, just you own it for the dividend. If it breaks above 27 and holds, my God, it finally can reverse. But these were stocks that I like that are now out of favor. And what's coming back? Intrasection sector rotation. So I do like healthcare in the second half of the year. I still like financials. Thanks to the big banks and the insurance stocks, they may pick up the slack. We'll see.
- [26:55]
A
So just to clarify, you went into a bunch of individual names across both of those Healthcare and financials is the maybe the safest way to gain exposure to buy the ETFs of the whole sector or to pick and choose your name?
- [27:09]
B
Yeah. Well I'm glad you made that point because I do as a trader, I always pick and choose and I want people to come strong. I want a stock pick. But no, you go top down approach. You look at the sector. So we talked about financials, we talked about health care. Then we broke the sectors down to what are the biggest components in those sectors. So you look at the individual stocks and when Nvidia is not leading, guess what? Xlk. That's going to be down. Sma Semiconductor index. It's going to be down. So you need to know where the leadership is and when Nvidia is leading, that's good for the sector. So the sectors are mixed. So as that sector has intra sector rotation, you got to say okay, what's going to lead, what's going to pick up the slack. So I don't think healthcare is going to get destroyed. In fact, if UNH comes back, Humana comes back and Merck and Eli Lilly can just tread water. J and J. Don't kill me here, Abby. V. Then we'll see the sector come back as well. So I'm glad you pointed out, yes, there are stocks within the sector that I like for the next three to six months. Those are the ones I named. But the rotation continues. And you have to be aware that basket may not thrive. But you need to know where the leadership is. So you can nitpick and pick and choose within the basket, but it's always safest to play the basket. I'm not gonna lie. And that's what we tell people when I go to speeches for freedom. You know, you wanna play the basket. But if you're looking for one or two individuals that are strongest in the basket, I give you that option as well.
- [28:36]
A
Real quick, we'll get right back to the interview. Just wanted to pop in and say if you like this content. I read a newsletter every single morning called Opening Bell Daily. I cover macro, the stock market, asset prices, why things are going up, why they're going down. And if you want to get that for free, you can sign up at the link in the description. Let's get back to the interview. Wow. I mean, it's the, the breadth of your knowledge about the individual stocks is always unbelievable. Jay, let's go. Bear case. The sectors that you would never touch right now,
- [29:11]
B
Consumer discretionary, you know, it's two stocks. It's Tesla, it's Amazon. I never bet against Elon Musk, I don't like to talk about that stock. But my God, the potential and the cult like following it has if it can hit on robotics and autonomous driving, it's at an inflection area where I think if it can break out, that can lead discretionary. But it's a little concerning. This run in transports has been unbelievable, but I would not chase airlines here, not given the price of now I'm going a technician into fundamentals. Why wouldn't the charts look great? But technically there are concerns and transports are a sector that is. They're highly cyclical. I mean, I know the transportation index is a little wacky because it's price weighted and Avis Rent a car symbol, car that I don't know, did an evil Knievel jump up and then it came crashing right back down. So that kind of skews things. But when you look at the transports, I look at the iyt, I think we could see a little bit of a pullback there. The industrials, I'd like to see that sector come back to life. It's been acting well, but it's not a tide lifting all boats. You look at United Rentals in that sector, they had great earnings, nice little chart. So URI is a stock within the industrials I like, but there are a lot of bear cases out there. That's why when we started, I still think we can be flat for the rest of the year. But as long as we get that rotation, we've gone a little too far in these semiconductor names. Pull back a little bit. Not the end of the world. But if it does, guess what? Someone's gotta pick up the slack. And if the financials can't pick up the slack, HEALTHCARE continues to lag. We can't rely on energy names. It's 3% of the index. All right. ExxonMobil 150. We're treading water. I think ExxonMobil can be great. Chevron could be great and give us 170, 180 in Exxon by the end of the year. That's a nice return on top of what we've already seen. So sector rotation is still going to happen. We, which means, guess what, the tide's not lifting. All boats. We're not gonna have a runaway bull. And then if we get some weird event and one of these generals in the mag 7 disappoint, I think we can do without Tesla. Disappointing. But when these biggest semiconductor and chip names, if something was to change, then we could have a deeper sell off. I don't suspect we will.
- [31:35]
A
So I want to push back on one.
- [31:38]
B
Please do.
- [31:39]
A
That's what makes the market not even push back. But you like financials and healthcare.
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B
We can fight.
- [31:44]
A
It's good. It's good for ratings too. It is, it is. Tech is not one of the sectors you named that you're most bullish or most bearish on.
- [31:53]
B
Correct?
- [31:55]
A
What's going on there?
- [31:56]
B
Yeah, it goes back to those big names in the software. I don't think the IGV is back. I mean, we're holding key levels and every level. Oh, just a little lower. Okay, I'll draw a thicker line on this chart. But the big theme for the first half of the year before we hit this war was AI is disrupting AI and these software names are being disrupted. And when I look at a service now in Adobe, a Unity Software, Microsoft itself and Meta on the ropes, maybe we get the mean reversion, but I don't think we're going to get an all clear in software this year. And to me, I think there are trades to be made in some of these names like Oracle, where we can get back to 190, 200, 210, the declining 200 day moving average. But I would trade these stocks. I'm not jumping all in. Like, hey, the coast is clear. But for those of us that own Nvidia in our portfolios, these are stocks you buy. You don't look at. Apple has become a utility. Worry about it. Microsoft, the narrative is changing and I don't think we're going to get one quarter and get the all clear that this part of the technology sector is back. So that's where I struggle saying I'm all in on the tech train because Microsoft is one of the three biggest components of technology. It may not be by the end of this year.
- [33:17]
A
Wow, Jay, the range of sectors and stocks, single name you're able to talk about is awesome.
- [33:26]
B
I didn't talk about materials. I didn't go there. You know, no one wants to talk about the XLRE and real estate and
- [33:31]
A
Lindy and is it a buy right now?
- [33:34]
B
It's so boring.
- [33:35]
A
Oh, okay.
- [33:36]
B
Yeah.
- [33:37]
A
Boring doesn't mean bearish.
- [33:38]
B
No, boring. Boring was the theme, I think when we said we kicked off our last podcast. And thank you for having me back. I know you haven't had too many people back, so I'm honored to be
- [33:47]
A
joining you in rare company and well deserved. So Jay, where can people find your work online? I know you're doing a lot of things these days.
- [33:55]
B
Yeah, if you go to my LinkedIn, jwoods comma, CMT, we don't have to be friends but you can find my profile link to my weekly newsletter. That's a table setter. I know you read it and I appreciate it. I read you every day. Mutual admiration society going on here. That's a great place to go and see how I can talk about sector breakdown and individual stocks. We usually focus on what's going to be on the news. So this week clearly mag 7 heavy. A little fed talk and then you can follow me on Twitter JWoods3 and go to Freedom Capital Markets to learn more about our firm and what we do. And we're always willing to say hello.
- [34:31]
A
You're leaving out CNBC contributor, CNBC pro maestro and Fordham University professor.
- [34:40]
B
And my kids will be angry you don't mention that they watch.
- [34:43]
A
Jay, I really appreciate your time and you will definitely be back on the show soon.
- [34:48]
B
All right. It's always a pleasure and keep up the good work. My French.
- [34:51]
A
Thank you.
- [34:52]
B
You got it.