Transcript
A (0:00)
What's up guys? On this episode of Full Signal, I sit down with Hamilton Reiner. He is the head of US Equity Derivatives at JP Morgan Asset Management. He has a wealth of knowledge. We get into asset allocation, portfolio strategies and the funds and ETFs that he is personally managing. This is a fantastic conversation, full of insight. We even get into Lehman Brothers and his time there before the great crash. I hope you enjoy this conversation. Hamilton, it's great to see you. I would love to get into your high level view of markets right now. I know you manage a lot of different funds, a lot of ETFs. How are you thinking about stock exposure right now?
B (0:37)
Sure. So first of all, thank you for having me. As far as stock exposure, I'm pretty constructive on markets. And the reason is returns are usually driven by earnings. And when you look at the Overall market, the Mag 7 are wonderful because they have above average level of earnings. People are thinking let's call it the low 20%, let's call it 23, 24. But what's really cool is the other 493 we're expecting, let's call it around 11% earnings power out of them. And you blend that together, The S&P 500 people expect to have about 14% of earnings. Now, whether PEs stay the same or maybe even come in a little bit, the fact that we have 14% earnings growth means that we should expect high single digit, low double digit returns this year. But as I said, the other 493 are having earnings, some of the best earnings they've had in years as far as their growth. So we expect to see a broadening of the rally. I would say on any given year, stocks are up 75% of the time. So not being constructive on stocks means you're betting on the 25. I tend to like odds. I like the idea of staying with the 75% as a starting point and the earnings component as well.
A (1:46)
Yeah, I like the odds as well. When you think about the AI trade evolving this year and I see a lot of people, including people from J.P. morgan, talking about this shift into more, let's say, monetizable AI, how does that go into your strategy for finding what investment ideas to put into your portfolio?
B (2:09)
Sure. I think the focus on monetization of AI makes sense. If you're spending that much money, you actually have to see results. And it can't be just efficiencies. There's only so many efficiencies you could have. It needs to drive returns. It Needs to drive, as I said, some efficiencies, product, product innovation, shorting time of R and D. But you actually need to see results just like anything else that you invest in. And so when we think about investing, we view stocks and I'm lucky enough to not just be a one man band. We have 20 career analysts inside JP Morgan's core platform where I'm CIO and those folks do one thing and only one thing, and that is look at companies and trying to identify those stocks that over the medium term are going to have above average earnings power relative to what the market thinks. Every one of those analysts, the average age is at least 20 years in the industry, covers 20 to 30 names. And they're not looking at the daily wiggles and waggles in the market. You chop yourself up if you do that. They're looking out to the medium to long term, looking at what a company can make in a more normalized environment of three to five years. So when we look at the AI monetization, who's actually making money and going to make money based upon their investments? Today, if people are just throwing money in a black hole, probably not an investable asset for us. But those people that are building scale people are actually building the picks, the tools for other people to use. AI people are building some of the best AI large language models that are going to have monetization and the ability to have user engagement and charge for it. You know, we're finding a lot of constructiveness there. And then you got to power these things. So for us it's the entire ecosystem. It's not just saying, oh, you know, they're spending a lot of money, it's what are they doing with the money they're spending and are they being judicious?
