Strait of Hormuz will BREAK oil markets! | Matt Smith, Kpler

Summary

Podcast Summary: Full Signal with Phil Rosen
Episode: Strait of Hormuz will BREAK oil markets!
Guest: Matt Smith, Lead Oil Analyst at Kpler
Date: May 5, 2026

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Overview

In this episode, host Phil Rosen sits down with Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler, to unpack the global energy and oil market turmoil triggered by the ongoing conflict in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Together, they explore the real-time data behind disrupted oil flows, the impact on global prices, the knock-on supply effects for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, and the broader implications for inflation and geopolitics. The conversation provides deep, data-driven insights for investors and anyone interested in understanding how energy markets are being fundamentally reshaped.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Strait of Hormuz Closure: The Epicenter of Oil Disruption

[00:36]

• Before the closure, about 15 million barrels per day of crude oil and 5 million barrels per day of clean oil products (jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, LPG) passed through the strait. This accounted for a third of the world’s seaborne crude exports.
• Now, flows have “ground down to a halt,” with only some Iranian crude moving, primarily to China via the shadow fleet, which turns off transponders to avoid detection.
  Quote — Matt Smith:
  "In terms of, prior to the Strait of Hormuz being closed, we're seeing like 15 million barrels per day... That has basically ground down to a halt." [00:36]

2. Iranian Shadow Fleet Operations

[01:25]

• Iran’s oil continues to flow to China via shadow tankers that deliberately operate without transponder signals, circumventing sanctions.

3. Why Haven’t Oil Prices Exploded Higher?

[02:00 – 03:13]

• Despite expectations of $150–$175 crude, prices remain around $114–$125 per barrel.
• Reasons include:
  • Market uncertainty and caution about sudden political interventions (e.g., Presidential tweets influencing prices).
  • The "boiling frog" effect: price increases are happening gradually.
  • Stronger physical market premiums, especially for Atlantic basin crude.
• The forward curve (future prices) remains low, suggesting long-term supply tightness even after the Strait reopens.

4. Unwinding the Supply Snarl: What Recovery Looks Like

[03:46 – 04:51]

• Even if the Strait reopens immediately, normalization will take until at least August due to:
  • 170 million barrels of oil backed up in the region needing to be shipped out.
  • Full inventories and disrupted refineries in the Gulf.
  • Tankers must move out, discharge, and return before flows resume.
  • Many Gulf countries must draw down inventories before resuming production.

5. Product Quality and Substitution Woes

[07:49 – 08:33]

• US crude ("light sweet") differs from Middle East's "medium sour" crude:
  • US oil yields more gasoline, while Middle Eastern yields more diesel and jet fuel.
  • Asia, in crisis, is taking whatever crude it can get, even poor substitutes.
• Diesel and jet fuel shortages are especially acute due to this mismatch.

6. Diesel and Jet Fuel: The Hidden Risks

[08:44 – 10:58]

• Diesel, vital for transporting goods, is at risk of hitting new record highs, driving up prices on everyday items.
• Jet fuel shortages already causing massive flight cancellations, particularly in Asia. Quote — Matt Smith:
  "The jet fuel side of the picture is even worse... 2 million seats have been canceled on flights over the next month or so." [10:51]

7. US as Emergency Energy Exporter

[12:33 – 13:43]

• The US is exporting record amounts of crude, diesel, and jet fuel to plug the global supply gap, especially in Asia and Europe.
• This helps now but draws down US inventories and exposes US consumers to future price hikes.

8. Global Energy Realignment: Long-Term Consequences

[14:50 – 15:48]

• The shock will be felt long after the Strait reopens, as countries rebuild depleted inventories—especially India, which only had about 20 days of supply and is scrambling to rebuild.

9. Winners and Losers: Russia & China

[15:48 – 18:45]

• Russia benefits as demand for its crude surges (despite ongoing pressure and attacks on infrastructure).
• China has a massive stockpile—over 1.2 billion barrels—but as a huge consumer, these reserves can deplete quickly, especially with reduced imports from the Middle East. Quote — Matt Smith:
  "China has massive stockpiles... over 1.2 billion barrels. That's about a third of all global onshore crude inventories." [17:18]

10. OPEC Turmoil: UAE’s Exit

[18:45 – 21:05]

• UAE’s departure from OPEC is significant; it plans to ramp up production once constraints lift.
• Political and economic motivations: UAE wants to sell as much oil as possible in the near term, anticipating long-term decline in hydrocarbon consumption.
• Other nations like Kazakhstan could follow due to frustration over production cuts.

11. Restoration Timeline and Tanker Logistics

[21:25 – 23:43]

• Even with an immediate peace deal, logistical issues (e.g., suspected mines, backed-up tankers, insurance concerns, damaged refineries, production ramp-up times) will greatly slow recovery.
• Full normalization unlikely before August. Quote — Matt Smith:
  "You need confidence to do this... you're going to have to have these first movers, those first companies that are willing to do it and kind of trailblaze to prove that it's safe." [23:24]

12. The Inflation Outlook

[24:47 – 25:44]

• Sustained high prices for diesel and jet fuel will ripple through all goods and services, prolonging elevated inflation.
• Impact on flights and supply chains likely to worsen. Quote — Matt Smith:
  "The impacts of what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz is far reaching and is going to go on for far longer than people realize." [25:44]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Matt Smith on Leverage:
  "Iran... can keep the Strait of Hormuz closed because it has such a bigger impact than them not being able to get their crude out... they're crippling the global economy." [06:11]
• Flight Chaos in Asia:
  "2 million seats have been canceled on flights over the next month or so. And that's something we're just going to continue to hear more and more about as this jet fuel shortage goes to the front page." [10:51]
• On OPEC and the UAE:
  "The fact that UAE left was a bombshell. Right. So they're the third largest producer within opec and for them to leave is a big blow to the cartel, essentially." [19:11]
• Inflation Warning:
  "It's hugely problematic. Not just because of prices of the pump being high, moving higher, but staying higher after all this is done as well." [25:09]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Strait of Hormuz closure impact: [00:36–01:17]
• Shadow fleet and Iran's exports: [01:25–02:00]
• Why oil prices haven't rocketed: [02:00–03:13]
• Supply chain unwinding timeline: [03:46–04:51, 21:25–23:43]
• US crude vs Middle Eastern crude differences: [07:49–08:33]
• Diesel and jet fuel risks & implications: [08:44–10:58]
• US and global energy realignment: [12:33–15:48]
• Role of Russia and China: [15:48–18:45]
• UAE exit from OPEC: [18:45–21:05]
• Inflation ramifications: [24:47–25:44]

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Takeaways

• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created an unprecedented bottleneck in global oil and product flows, with deep, unpredictable market consequences.
• Market participants are flying blind—uncertain policy, complex logistics, and shifting geopolitical sands combine for an extended period of volatility.
• Diesel and jet fuel shortages pose perhaps the most acute risk to global supply chains and inflation, more so than gasoline.
• The US, despite robust production and exports, is far from insulated; inventory drawdowns and higher prices are coming.
• The shuffling of alliances (UAE leaving OPEC), opportunistic moves (Russia), and massive stockpiling (China) reflect a hardening new energy order, the aftermath of which will echo for years.

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This episode is essential listening for investors, policy-watchers, and anyone wanting to understand how a single chokepoint in global trade can upend the world economy—and what might come next.

Transcript

[A]

What's up, guys? I'm sitting down with Matt Smith, the lead oil analyst at Kepler. He has the best data on oil markets, energy flows, what tankers are doing in the straight of Hormuz, and much more. This is a must listen conversation about the Iran conflict, what investors should know, and how global energy markets are being rewritten in real time.

[B]

I hope you enjoy this conversation. Matt, I'm so glad we're here today. You've been all over the data on the Strait of Hormuz and where oil is actually going. Can you give us a sense of how much oil is actually flowing right now through that strait there?

[C]

Wow. Like very little, Phil. So like in terms of, prior to the Strait of Hormuz being closed, we're seeing like 15 million barrels per day. That's, that's just of crude oil. And that's like a third of the world's seaborne crude exports were leaving through there. That has basically ground down to a halt. The only thing that we're seeing passing through is some Iranian crude. But in the grand scheme of things, the crude oil has dried up. You also see about 5 million barrels a day of clean products. So that's jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, lpg, which is propane, and that has dried up as well. So here we are over two months after the closure and those products are just not leaving.

[B]

And the barrels that are still flowing from Iran, those are sanctioned or is that part of the shadow fleet that we're seeing?

[C]

Yeah, exactly. And so Iran has been sanctioned for a good number of years here. And what happens is they have the air. So an AIs is a transponder. And that's how we're tracking all of these vessels on a global basis. It's basically the law of the sea that you have this transponder switched on so everyone can see where you are and you can see where everybody else is. But Iran is, is a shadow fleet. And so it's basically going dark. And so they move all of their crude without their transponder switched on. And that is all going to China because that's the only country that will take the sanctioned crud.

[B]

Okay. So right now with all the depleted flows, right as we're recording this today, oil's at about 114 bucks a barrel last I checked. What I heard in the early days of the conflict was that we would see $150, $175 crude. We have not seen those levels. What's your take on why we haven't got there yet?

[C]

Yeah, sure, we thought it would be and it still feels like it is way undervalued here. You know, you do have a situation where loathe to be buying oil or bidding it up right now just simply because you could get a tweet from the President that could send prices spiraling lower. We've seen that happen multiple times. You also have the strength in the physical market. And so if you go into the market and you wanted to buy a barrel from somewhere in the Atlantic Basin, those have a higher premium priced on them. So there are higher prices. Not into the hundreds of dollars by any means, but they are more expensive. But the reality is, yeah, we're stuck here in the low hundreds. And most analysts and traders are sat scratching their heads.

[B]

Do you think that at some point you will get that gap up in oil prices if let's say the straight of Hormuz continues to stay as is right now?

[C]

Yeah, I think it's kind of like a boiling of frog rice, just a gradual increase that we should see coming through there. So we still expect the straight of Hormuz to be closed for a couple of weeks here. We're expecting higher prices going forward. One other thing to bear in mind is the forward curve as well, not just for oil, but for diesel and other commodities there. That futures price is still very low further out when we are in a much tighter environment from a supply perspective. So even once the Strait opens back up again, we are not going to return to the price levels that we were just a few months ago.

[B]

Can you explain that a bit more? Is it because oil refiners need to come back online? Is that part of why you think prolonged elevated oil prices?

[C]

So we've got such a gap from the market. It's basically two months with all this crude not coming to the market. Essentially the other piece of it is it's going to take another few months for it to get back to normal. And by a few I mean if the Strait open tomorrow, we probably wouldn't see us return to normal to at least August. Yeah. So this is. So this isn't a short term issue and is not a short term fix either. And so our expectation, the challenge is, is that you've got in the straight of Hormuz like 170 million barrels of oil and products sat in there that can't get out. It's been stuck there for months. That needs to get out. It needs to go to Asia to go to its destinations discharge. Then those empty tankers need to come back. All the oil inventories onshore in The Middle East Gulf there are full to the brim. And so they need to draw down those before they can start to increase production. You have refineries there that have been knocked out. It goes on and on and on. Right.

[B]

So when they're keeping oil onshore at some point, and this is going to be an ignorant question here, does that oil go bad at some point and they have to get it out the door?

[C]

Not the oil. That can happen with products. Yeah, but you can add additives, et cetera. But the oil, no, there's no problem at all with that. And the major problem with oil is that you have to shut in production instead. So you have all of the players in the Middle east that have shut in production because they simply cannot get the barrels out.

[B]

Okay, I see. If the Schrader Hormuz does stay closed, do you have a guess of how high you think crude prices will go? Let's say if it stays closed another month or another two months?

[C]

Yeah, well, we're thinking at least just for now, kind of short termist. So if it remains closed for the next few weeks, then we should be pushing towards like $125 on a Brent basis there. You've got a situation right now where both the US and Iran think they have the most leverage with Iran. They've got the straight of Hormuz, they've got that closed, whereas the US has got the blockade in place. And they think that they're going to make Iran basically cry uncle before the Strait of Hormuz is an issue there.

[B]

Who do you think has more leverage right now?

[C]

Iran.

[A]

Why?

[C]

Just because they have the ability to reduce their production there. The more that they've been hit, the less they have to lose. Right. And so they're in a situation here where they can keep the Strait of Hormuz closed because it has such a bigger impact than them not being able to get their crude out. And sure their revenues are getting hit or that, but they are crippling the global economy here. And so they're the ones with the bigger leverage.

[B]

So my understanding is that according to Kepler's data, US oil exports hit 5.2 million barrels a day in April, which is about a 30% jump from pre conflict levels to is that the US is essentially attempt to mitigate what's going on in the Strait of Hormuz. So that's maybe I answered that myself, but how effective is that really?

[C]

Yeah, it's not a move by them, it's simply economics at play here. So you have all of these VLCC, which is very large crude carrier, they carry 2 million barrels, they typically load in the Middle East. They take that crude into Asia, they can't get into the Mid East Gulf, so those tankers are coming to the US to collect that crude instead. At the same time you have a U.S. administration that has been talking down U.S. oil prices, which all that does is make them that much more relatively attractive versus global benchmarks. So they're coming to the U.S. they're getting discounted crude and then they're heading to Europe. But the increase is predominantly going to Asia because 90% of the oil that comes out of the Middle East Gulf there of the exports of crude oil goes to Asia. And they need to at least plug some of that gap.

[B]

So my understanding is that the crude coming out of the US versus the crude coming out of the Middle east is a different type, almost like a different flavor of energy markets. Right. What's, what's the difference there and what does it even matter?

[C]

Yeah, sure. So out of the Middle East Gulf you get a medium sour crude. And so what that means is when you run it through a refiner, you typically get more diesel, more jet fuel, less gasoline. For US Crude, the shale plays are producing light sweet crude that is a more high quality crude. It produces more gasoline, less diesel and less jet fuel. But in the case of Asia, they're just taking whatever they can get their hands on, even if it is not a good substitute.

[B]

Okay, so if we're getting more US supply on the market, how does that impact the levels of, let's say, diesel prices versus gas prices?

[C]

Yeah, and so if we take just diesel in isolation here. So just from a US perspective, US price, the national average is about $5.65. The record was back in mid 22, which was basically $5.80, something like that. So we're going to get to a new record on diesel, I would think in the coming weeks here. That is because this diesel part of the barrel is so much in need. Because these Middle east producers are not being able to get their crude out. These Asian refiners are not able to produce the diesel side.

[B]

So most of what I read focuses on gas prices. Everyone talks about gas prices. It's the thing that consumers see most, it shows up in inflation. But my sense of what you're saying is that diesel is sort of a underestimated risk here. And I think part of that as well is jet fuel. Is that right?

[C]

Yeah, big time. So just with the diesel side in the US it's like 90, over 90% of our groceries move on 18 wheelers. So it's basically that moving the lifeblood of our grocery stores, right, that high price is going to get priced into your carton of milk, your eggs, everything that you buy at the grocery store, it being moved, our Amazon deliveries, all that type of stuff. So it's not going to be discerning in terms of that inflation impact. The jet fuel side of the picture is even worse. Okay, so if we just think about Asia, Asia takes a lot of that Middle east crude, it refines it into jet for its domestic markets and its export markets. Now what is happening is it's not getting the crude to be able to run through its refineries. And so they are dialing back on their refineries. They are not producing the jet for their domestic markets and they are not pushing those exports out. And so it's like a spider's web basically of the knock on effects or domino. The first domino is the crude not getting there. Now it's the likes of South Korea that is not producing the jet fuel to export to the US west coast. And so there was just a piece in the Financial Times talking today about 2 million seats have been canceled on flights over the next month or so. And that's something we're just going to continue to hear more and more about as this jet fuel shortage goes to the front page.

[A]

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[B]

And the cancellation of 2 million seats. Is that the Flights canceling those or the airlines canceling flights or people canceling their tickets because it's too expensive?

[C]

The former. So it's the, it's various different airlines and it's predominantly in Asia because that's kind of that first domino to drop. But it's going to be happening elsewhere. You have, it's going to be in Europe as well. Basically it's going to be global, but it's first of all, the first weak point is in Asia and then it's happen elsewhere.

[B]

Okay, that makes sense. When you think about the record high exports for US energy right now, does that mean the US is more insulated from the knock on effects of what's going on, this trade of Hormuz?

[C]

Yeah, so it's, it's insulated from a supply perspective because the U.S. you know, produces a lot of its own oil, but it also refines like 16 million barrels a day. So we produce a lot of our own needs in terms of gasoline, et cetera. But the problem is going to to be coming going forward is because we've got record exports. So Europe is not able to get jet fuel from the Middle East. We are sending more jet fuel into Europe and we need the stuff, but Europe needs it more. So they are willing to pay that higher price to pull that jet fuel out of the US To Europe. It's the same thing for diesel. We are sending diesel to South Africa, to Australia. It's just these other countries that are desperate for the stuff that are willing to pay up for it. And so it's great. At the moment the US has the stuff to export, but all it means is that we are going to be running short on our inventories and our prices are going to go up too.

[B]

How soon do you think we will start to see more extreme price jumps

[C]

in the US in terms of prices of the pump, we're around that $4.50 level. The record was at $5 a gallon back in mid 2022 as well. Just like it was with diesel. If we see the straight close for a good coming weeks, as we're kind of expecting, we're going to have that creeper effect. You see it seasonally anyway. You tend to see gasoline at the pump increasing through May, June ahead of summer driving season. So that will increase. But it's the diesel piece that is the concern and the jet side of things as well. Like I was saying, with the US west coast, they import a whole lot of jet from South Korea. South Korea doesn't have that to provide. And so at Some point the US Is going to have to pay up to pull it from elsewhere or it's going to have to get involved in these flight cancellations as well.

[B]

Wow. So let's say this realignment of energy flows, energy markets, that's happened with the Iran conflict, how permanent do you think this new structure is?

[C]

Well, the impact of it is going to continue long after the strait opens back up again. So it's going to have that, that long term impact, not just from the fact that the market is that much tighter from supply than where it was just a couple of months ago. But you're also going to have countries like India. India is just seven days away from the Middle East Gulf in terms of like an oil cargo going there. They import 5 million barrels a day. Half of that comes from the Middle East. Those flows stop, it's not getting half of its crude. And then the kicker is India only has, or it had 100 million barrels in its inventories. That's only 20 days of COVID to cover its loss of imports. And so now you're going to have the likes of India and all these other countries in Asia that have run out of crude and can't substitute it, building up those inventories, which is only going to hold up prices further into the future here. It's essentially incremental demand that's going to be added this year, next year, et cetera.

[B]

See, I think when I speak to a lot of investors, especially investors are focused on asset prices right now and they're not really worried or concerned about the second and third order effects of what's going on with energy markets, which is why I'm so eager to have you on the show. Let me ask you about Russia and China. How do they fit into this picture right now? Because they're sort of, at least geopolitically, on the other side of the battle here.

[C]

Yeah, Russia, one of the biggest beneficiaries from this situation. Right. So just prior to the war, Russia was having to sell its crude, like a 20, $25 discount per barrel because it couldn't sell it to anybody. Right. There was only India that would take it and China and India was being put under pressure by the US Administration and so they had to discount it. Then you have the war hit and then suddenly that Russian crude is very much in demand. They get a waiver to send it into certain countries. India takes as much as it possibly can, etc. So Russia is doing very well from, from the war. The one thing I would say though is that you've had the Ukrainians striking Russia persistently over the last few weeks, hitting their ports, hitting their refineries. And so while everyone's focused on the Middle east, they've been under attack and that has been impacting their flows. But you know, in the grand scheme of things, they've been one of the biggest beneficiaries here in terms of those revenues. China. China has massive stockpiles. Right. So over 1.2 billion barrels. That's about a third of all global onshore crude inventories. So they have a decent buffer there. But then again, their imports, if they're importing 11 million barrels a day, they're getting about 5 of those from the Middle East. A million million and a half of those are from Iran. The others are coming from these other producers that are, that are struggling to get those barrels out. I say struggling in that Saudi Arabia is able to export some crude now from the Red Sea, send a pipeline, essentially take those barrels across the Red Sea. But likes of Iraq and Kuwait, et cetera, they can't export. And those are the barrels that China's not getting. So China is absolutely feeling it from a volume perspective.

[B]

So let me try to resay that back to you to make sure I understand it. If China has so much supply and so much inventory, couldn't they be best positioned to maybe weather the storm here compared to other countries?

[C]

Yeah, no, that's totally fair. Yeah, yeah.

[B]

Okay.

[C]

It's just they are such a large consumer as well. If they were to run their refineries at their typical pace, they would eat into that stockpile that they have built up. And you know, last year they built it up tremendously as well. And so they're loathe to do that. Right. And this is the exact reason they've built this stockpile, because they are huge consuming country and they just don't have that supply themselves. And so they want that security of supply.

[B]

Okay, that makes sense. I want to ask you about the UAE, their decision to leave OPEC. Shortly after that headline broke, OPEC announced 188,000 barrels per day increase for June in their first meeting without the uae. Can you walk us through the significance of what that means and maybe why we should be paying attention to that?

[C]

Yeah, I think the increase was coming anyway. That's just incremental. So that's not too surprising. The fact that UAE left was a bombshell. Right. So they're the third largest producer within opec and for them to leave is a big blow to the cartel, essentially. So the timing of it was very interesting. They came out and said, oh, well, we're doing it now because we're going to have minimal impact on prices and on flows, which is. Right, because the straight of Hormuz is closed. However, though, Phil, when you open up the Strait of Hormuz, UAE is going to be able to ramp up its production, and that's the reason that it's leaving, because it's been at loggerheads, essentially, with the rest of the members there, because it's got a lot of production capacity, but it's been held in check because of these production cuts. So now it essentially gets unshackled and it can ramp up production, make more revenue, because ultimately it's got one eye on looking at what is happening with. With the hydrocarbon market over the coming decades here. And it's like, I want to sell as much oil as I possibly can now. So it's a sensible move for UAE in that they have the ability to produce more. It's just probably been driven by political factors more than anything else. As in, they were like, at loggerheads with Saudi.

[B]

Okay. Do you see other countries following in

[C]

their footsteps to leave potentially. So you have someone like Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has spent, like, decades investing to get its production ramped up. They ramp it up. They're part of OPEC and they're told to cut back right at that point that it happens. And so Kazakhstan has been far overproducing over the last year or so. So there are potential to leave. In terms of the others, we'll have to see, really. But, you know, we've written off OPEC in the past, and it's proven to be wrong. So I think they may not come back stronger. Right. But they'll still have a certain amount of unity there.

[B]

Okay. And again, you have to excuse my ignorance on the matter. If the Iran conflict did not happen, do you think there would be any conversation of the UAE leaving opec?

[C]

I think there was still a small chance that that was going to happen. This has only accelerated that. Yeah.

[B]

Okay. Okay. So if somehow, suddenly, the Iran conflict were to resolve itself tomorrow. Right. And suddenly everything was peace deal, peace talks, all that shred of Hormuz was opened again. How long do you think realistically things would get back to normal?

[C]

We expect August. And when I say that to some clients, they're like, are you sure? So the problem is, is that you have all these full tankers that need to get out. Right. And this is the challenge as well, is because we don't know if the Strait of Hormuz is mined or not. And so you have these two traditional like highways where you come in and out, like predetermined. Those are not being used right now because we don't know if there's mines there. So all the tankers that are leaving are hugging close to Iran there, whether that's Iranian tankers or Iran has given them the permission to do so. So that's going to be a challenge. But you put that aside, you still have these tankers that need to get out to discharge. You need to get the empty ones in, you need to ramp up your production. But you can't do that until your inventories are lower. The refineries have been hit as well. And even on the production side, we believe Kuwait and Iraq have. It is going to take them months to ramp up that production as well. Whereas like a Saudi uae, they're going to be able to do it fairly quickly. So it's complicated and logistical and all kinds of things.

[B]

It seems like a nightmare to figure out what happens to tanker flows per day. You think like, how many ships are we actually going to see ramp up once things open?

[C]

Yeah, I'm picturing the chart in my head. We published this. And so basically it's just a gradual ramp up that we see to get back to normal in kind of August time. So like pre conflict, there's about 100 tankers leaving right now. It's like just a handful essentially. So it's going to to be a very slow process and a gradual one. I think. You know, the one thing that we're kind of considering, you need confidence to do this. Right. So you're going to have to have these first movers, those first companies that are willing to do it and kind of trailblaze to prove that it's safe. Right. Which is. It is a challenge in itself.

[B]

I mean, it's a huge bet for a business to make. Right. As opposed to a government to make that call.

[C]

There is also the issue about insurance too. Like we're like, oh, you know, do they have the insurance? Will they be covered? But I think on a, from a human perspective as well, whether you have the insurance or not, it doesn't mean it's a decision between going for it or not.

[B]

Huh. Are you watching variables like tanker insurance? Is that part of what you're covering right now?

[C]

A little bit. Other members of the team are watching that. Yeah, smarter people than me. And then I just kind of pick up on the highlights. So.

[B]

Okay. Okay. Are you able to share any takeaways from what they've found over the last couple of months.

[C]

Well, I think just what I was saying just before that on the last question was that that was one thing that we've been debating. It's like, do they have the insurance there? And there is the insurance in place, but it just, that doesn't mean they're necessarily going to leave the straight. It's going to need to take those brave, brave first movers essentially to, to really encourage people to go for it more than anything else.

[B]

Okay, so before I let you go, Matt, the inflation picture in the US it's been a pretty contested subject over the last year. We have a new Fed chair coming in. How does all of the energy market chaos, let's say, how do you see that playing in and filtering in through the inflation data?

[C]

Yeah, I think it's hugely problematic. Not just because of prices of the pump being high, moving higher, but staying higher after all this is done as well. But it's that diesel price as well that's kind of the lifeblood of moving things around the US on the highways. Right. And that's going to be reflected through into all of our goods. And then the other thing is just on the jet fuel side of things too, in terms of flights, et cetera, those are only going to go up here if they're not going to be canceled. And so the impacts of what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz is far reaching and is going to go on for far longer than people realize.

[B]

Wow, Matt, I'm just giving you good news here. Yeah, of course, of course. No, you're one of the leading experts in this space. I know you've been covering the data so closely and I really appreciate your time. So we'll have to do this again very soon.

[C]

Yeah, I appreciate it. This was great, thank you.