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A
Sylvia, you have one of the more unique vantage points on markets because you have so many products at Defiance that you can see where capital is rotating in and out of. What are you seeing as the most in demand sectors right now?
B
So it's super interesting because as we've seen this volatility in the market and we've had a lot of geopolitical news and rate news and different things coming into the market, we've actually seen, again, more volatility and more shifts in where assets are going over the last couple of months. So I would say overwhelmingly the asset flow has been into things that relate to AI. So the next gen, the next level of pillars that go beyond Nvidia and semiconductors broadly. So, for example, memory and photonics, AI infrastructure, energy, lasers, electricity. Funds that hold these types of exposures have done well. Quantum computing has been probably the biggest theme for us at Defiance. We've had billions of dollars flowing into that theme. And so I think that those are going to be long term, buy and hold sticky types of allocations in people's portfolios. But in the short, you do see a lot of new capital coming to work in things like XMag or XIGV. So XMag is S&P500 minus the Mag 7 and XIGV is NASDAQ minus the software names. And so there's been this theme of, like, you know, IBM reported the other day the stock was down 24%, worst drop since 1987, something like this. And then all of a sudden, investors are trying to flee software or put money to work and things other than that. And so ETF wrappers, I think, really create a good allocation spot for when markets are shifting. But yeah, it's been that. It's been AI quantum, and then when it's out of favor, you know, X Mag broadening out S&P 500.
A
Okay, that's super interesting that people are looking for things specifically that exclude software or things.
B
Just exclude things? Yes. Like themes. Yeah.
A
Okay. Because I get a very mixed bag when I talk to investors. I say, do you like software? Right now, a lot of people are buying the dip. They think something like Microsoft is at its most attractive valuation in years. I disagree with that. I'm not touching software or Microsoft these days. But a lot of the colleagues I know in the business, they are saying, look, if you're not buying software now, you're going to miss this upswing for the rest of the year. But it sounds like, at least from your perspective, not buying software is popular.
B
Yeah, I would say, if anything, that argument is kind of true in the sense that it's a hyperscaler in terms of Microsoft. So I think that the hyperscalers haven't done as well in the past year or so, or they just haven't had the same level of momentum as say, a Micron or, you know, some of these chip companies or AI, pure AI, types of names and themes. And so I do think that investors are looking at the hyperscalers broadly, but I wouldn't say that it's because of software. Like, I don't talk to many clients that are looking for, you know, workday CRM exposure right now. That's not to say that there won't be be a time for that or that those names won't innovate with AI, But I think that the, the dollar spent is tending to go towards bottlenecks in AI.
A
So if it's going into bottlenecks, where is that capital leaving? So what, what are the themes or verticals that you're seeing get less popular?
B
Well, I think software is, is one of the big ones. Yeah, I think software. And then I think a lot of, I, I think it's not necessarily that money is coming out of all of the popular stocks. I think that there's a lot of new money coming into the market consistently. You know, we have this generational shift of trillions of dollars of cash coming from baby boomers and beyond. And when we have, we have geopolitical events, we have interest rate things that are causing the market to have pullbacks. Like over the last couple of days, we've seen some sizable pullbacks. And I think on those days, at least for us, we tend up, we end up seeing creates in a lot of our funds. So that leads me to believe that, you know, and we're not seeing redeems necessarily. So at least from our suite, it's not that something came out of something and went into another product. It looks like perhaps investors bought on the dip.
A
Okay, see, that is, I find that fascinating because the story you see in the headlines is that there's a quote rotation.
B
Yes.
A
Happening in the market. But you're saying, hey, it's just new capital coming in, even if it's not necessarily what you would expect as a, you know, quote rotation. And I've been writing about this too, so maybe I'm wrong on that.
B
I think it's both though. I do think that. So when you have these massive institutional portfolios that are, you know, billions of dollars wide, I do think that they' Rotate. Right. They tend to. And, and you do, so you do see that. But I think on the retail level, a lot of retail investors are perhaps putting money to work in new themes. Right. So there's kind of two segments of the investor in the world and where the money's going.
A
Okay. When you think about all the commentary around the AI bubble, I think it was very popular a few months ago to say stock market was a bubble because of AI, but because stock prices have almost slowed down in a sense, but earnings have not. Now the news narrative is there's an AI earnings bubble. Where do you fall on this debate here?
B
I think earnings will tell the story. So that's where I fall on the debate. So we're expecting, we're expecting over 20% of earnings growth this earnings season. We're kind of starting out this week, right? This is the big week for that. And so if we actually get that then, and the outlook is good for a continued path to growth, then that tells me that, that perhaps it's not a bubble. You know, maybe valuations are high, stocks are getting more expensive, but if the earnings are there to justify it, perhaps it's not a bubble. Right. And I think if, if that doesn't prove to be true, then, you know, it starts to feel a little bit frothy. But as long as earnings keep growing at the pace they are or in a healthy manner and capex is deployed and is, is showing up somewhere on the, you know, bottom line, top line for these companies, we're seeing that the revenue was actually invested and is returning something. Then I think if you look at the hyperscalers, you know, they're, they're spending, gosh, 600, 700 billion on, on AI and that's growing. And so that tells me that number one, they think that the opportunity is really there and number two, that they're going to monetize on this at some point. And so the market will essentially demand those results at some point and that'll determine whether or not there's a bubble.
A
One quick note, everyone. YouTube is telling us that 80% of you are not subscribed to the channel. And if you want to help this channel grow and help me continue to book great guests, the single best thing you can do is hit that subscribe button. I really appreciate it. Now let's get back to the episode. Do you think it's possible that even if earnings are excellent, record breaking, all this good stuff, expectations can still outrun actual earnings? And then maybe that in itself is the risk that people aren't talking about.
B
So I think it's an. This is particularly a particularly interesting earnings season that we're just about to go into right now. We're just starting right now. So last quarter earnings expectations were far lower and. And the wins greatly surpassed what we expected. Right. And this time around we're expecting 20% or more. That wasn't the case last quarter. And so if we don't get it, I do think that stocks are going to be punished. So if companies, you know, meet their earnings expectation number, we sort of see what happens. Like maybe the stock pops for a little bit, maybe nothing happens, but probably doesn't pull back. If a company misses, though, I do think that the punishment will be higher than it has been in past earning seasons because the expectation is so high.
A
I think that makes sense when I think about the AI trade. We had hyperscalers do very well upfront. Then it sort of moved into more infrastructure. Now we're sort of in this bottleneck boom right now. Something like a micron. You are doing a lot of work thematically as far as where to invest next. You have something like quantum or photonics. Where do you see capital going next as maybe that next leg of the AI trade?
B
I think that there are so many places to go and so many paths to take and so many different themes that can come out of AI. Right. I think AI was arguably semiconductors just a couple of years ago when we had that, you know, chatgpt moment. But it can go into. I, I think we're going to look at robotics, I think we're going to look at international specific types of AI. So for example, you have this like sk, Hynix and Samsung and names like this. You know, that'll be a theme, I think, you know, you'll, you'll see different pillars, whether it's memory and photonics, whether it's lasers and optics, whether it's, you know, AI infrastructure and demand. So for us specifically with, within our product suite, it's been very much quantum computing. So that's that next generation of computing. It's what will improve and help make AI more efficient, particularly when it comes to machine learning. You've seen a lot of flow there, a lot of government investment there. Geopolitically, we're in the middle of a war. So we've seen a lot of flow into modern AI and infrastructure.
A
What does that mean?
B
So that means drones, that means Palantir, that means all of these defense companies that are utilizing AI. It's the idea that instead of one you know, 50, $200 million missile, you have 300 low cost unmanned drones. Right. And it's changing the way that war happens. But because we are in this now, you're, you're, you're seeing investment in this space. And then like, without a doubt for us, the biggest AI trait this year has been AI power and infrastructure. And it's just the idea that there's this bottleneck. You know, we anticipate that there's, that the electricity needs are going to grow by like 135% by 2030. You know, there's going to be a $1.3 trillion addressable total addressable market according to McKinsey anyway, with electricity and energy, just that part of AI. And so we've got an ETF there, AIPO. It's, it's just all AI powered infrastructure and there's just so much demand for that right now.
A
Okay, so power, defense, quantum, those are, would you say that's a good capture of the next wave? Let's say. But based on current demand?
B
Yeah, I would say it's current and, and future, just based on what the growth story is for AI powered infrastructure for quantum computing. And you know, you and I talked about this off camera a little bit, but I think that with, with these themes and these new technologies, you know, I think people are calling it like the fourth Industrial revolution for a long time. Like we're just in the beginning of that. And so that's the next five to 10 years. Like these aren't trades hot this year. It's not even, you know, most of the stuff isn't, isn't built yet, it's not being used yet, it's not monetizable yet. Right. So I think we're still early stages and I do think that these trends and trades continue.
A
So when I hear people talk about Quantum, I would say more than half are saying we're still too early for quantum to mean anything in the current technological environment. Do you think that means it's one, too early to be trying to invest in it? Or two, maybe this is right on time before it swings upward.
B
I think it's a combination of both. And it's very hard to time markets and it's very hard to time themes. But what I will say is in 2018 we had a Quantum ETF. No one knew what quantum was. They were confused by the etf. And why was it here? What was it? And it really represented quantum computing and machine learning. And it was in our eyes a huge part of what AI is right. And then you had the chatgpt moment where nobody had really been talking that much about AI before or, or you know, it was like science, it's like a science project. And now all of a sudden AI is the only thing driving the markets and driving conversations of investors and things like this. And so Quantum is a similar thing. If you look at these companies now, like D wave, IonQ, quantinium, quantum computer, you know, quantum company, they, they have, you know, the performance of these stocks over that time has been wildly impressive. You're talking about triple digits if you go back to 2018 over time. And so what has happened? Well, you have seen some proof, right? You've seen some commercialization. D Wave actually already does Annealing Ionq had, you know, triple, I think 300, 400, 500% year over year growth in revenues and contracts and things like this. And you know, there have been now stories where a quantum computer has been used to better the outcome of, of valuing bond prices and things like this through HSBC Bank. You know, IBM had some case, has some commercialization cases. The U.S. government is investing billions to compete in this international quantum race. And so what I would say is the government spending is there, it's coming now. It's been there and now it's really coming. It's doubled down. You have companies like Nvidia, like the, the biggest chip AI companies in the world are investing in quantum computing. And so Even if it's five to 10 years off in terms of the perfection of how the, the computer actually runs, the theme is building.
A
I mean, if you bought in, in 2018 and held till today, you've done very well. Even though even today, barely. People. Anyone know about Quantum?
B
Yes.
A
As an investable theme or even as a word.
B
Yes.
A
I think when you, they're picking up
B
on it though, because now we're getting those phone calls from, from, you know, very conservative, high net worth, you know, private client types of investors that are like, hey, I've been hearing so much about Quantum. Can you tell me about it? That's, you know, those phone calls are starting to come in now. So I do think that people are picking up on it.
A
Okay, so just for context, Quantum, your ETF is qt. Um, yes, some of the names in this Cloudflare, Snowflake, amd, Applied Materials and these are, you know, fairly mainstream stocks, I would say. But then I don't have them in front of me. But when I was looking at it this morning, there were some pretty niche names in there as well that I'd certainly never heard of. And I think getting a basket exposure if you're not a stock picker, that's probably almost generally that's, that's the better approach because you don't have to do the work of finding a hundred different names that, that build a diversified portfolio
B
or something and they serve as a ballast like the names that you mentioned. You want exposure to the pure play quantum names, but then you also want the bigger like an Nvidia that has a huge role in quantum computing. IBM is another one. Forget their software stuff. They're just doing so much forward looking work with quantum computing that I think that'll be exciting for the company. So what happens when quantum stocks pull back is that some of these larger cap names that are involved in quantum actually buffer the portfolio from a larger fall. So I think it's, it's probably one of the most perfect exposures you can have to quantum computing. The pure play with the ballast of the big companies that actually fund it, invest in it, research it and will protect the portfolio in pullbacks.
A
When you're deciding what the next big investment theme is.
B
Yes.
A
How do you balance between what clients and investors are asking for versus what you genuinely believe? Hey, this is where capital should go in the future?
B
Well, it's, it's a combination of all of it. So you know, the, the team is kind of very aware of the different, you know, themes and areas of allocation that investors are looking for and talking about. And so we kind of scour the, the world for, for what it is. You know, what do people want to invest in? What could be the next, what is the next quantum computing? You know, what is the next AI trade? And there's a lot of, you know, discussion back and forth and a lot of it is also speaking to clients and what they want to trade. But I do think that, you know, there's a lot of due diligence and research that goes into what does the market want.
A
Okay, let me ask you about defense. We had touched on it before the. I love the ticker for this drone and modern warfare. ETF is Jedi J E D I.
B
Yes.
A
Very clever. Some of the names in this unusual machines, red wire Ondis C3AI Rocket Lab. A lot of these go beyond just conventional aerospace.
B
Yes.
A
Right. I think that's what most people think of when they hear a defense fund or etf. Where do you think investors are underappreciating as far as the theme of defense?
B
I think that the face of defense and what it is and what it is, has become, has completely changed. You know, I think back then it was, it was only Lockheed and Raytheon and you know, a handful of, of other stocks. And, and that's what investors knew. And you always had this allocation to those names because they were, they were defensive. They would pro, you know, protect your portfolio in a pullback and things like this. I, I think that when you think about aerospace and defense and even it's different now, it's broadened out. It's, it's not only those companies, but it's also space. It's satellites, right? It's, it's, it's satellites that survey the land. It's, it's technology that allow, it's like 6G, the technology that allows for lower latency and communication. It's these unmanned drones. It's the artificial intelligence that brings information to decision makers more quickly and helps with strategic planning and things like this. So I think that AI is very much driving geopolitics now, whereas before it was more, you know, hand to hand combat. Right. And, and so as that changes, the investments in the space will probably change as well.
A
You do so many, you have so much work in different themes and sectors. If you had to pick one for the next five years that you would say, all right, this is the thing that will outperform best. What do you think?
B
Oh gosh, I don't think I could pick one. But I think that when you think about AI and the bottlenecks that are coming, the bottlenecks are very real and they're around infrastructure and that means energy, electricity, lasers and photonics. In order to have the AI build out that we're expecting and in order for AI to come to its kind of full fruition, it won't happen without the picks and shovels. And so I think AI, power and infrastructure is just to drive markets for the next next years.
A
A lot of these infrastructure names have already had massive runs in the last two years or so.
B
Yes.
A
You don't think that we've run up too much, let's say, to buy in at current levels.
B
I think that we talked about it a little bit with quantum computing. I like the idea of an ETF for this because you're getting the ones that have run up and are probably going to be steady eddies and continue to grow. Right. Maybe not at the same level they have before, but will continue to grow as this market grows, as the technology grows and things like this. But then you have all of these cool, you know, small cap semiconductor names again, like laser Photonics companies, these, these kind of less known names in there that are going to be beneficiaries of this and are part of these portfolios like an AIPO. So I think ETFs are, are quite good for expressing your views on AI.
A
How do you know? Or I guess what's your process for deciding whether a theme has run its course or if you think, okay, this still has legs to keep going for years.
B
Right. So I think, I think the markets tell us that. And a lot of things come back. Right. A lot of themes resurface and come back and some of this, like the hyperscalers are kind of coming back now. I feel like people have been a little bit sour on them for the last year or two. And now if you look at, you know, all of these big banks that come out with their, their research reports, I think Goldman put something out the other day like what is the next thing for the, the next year and a half or so. And it's hyperscalers are going to have their, their day in the sun. Right. So I do think that a lot of themes come back. So we don't necessarily say something has run its course. I do think there are some obvious things where you see flows coming out of something. So for example, our largest levered ETF for the longest time was around Microstrategy. And so with the fall of crypto, a lot of the funds have just come out of that particular product. Right. But then they've gone into other ETFs that are more relevant to perhaps the AI theme, the space theme. You know, we were talking about SpaceX a little bit off camera, but like an SPCU or Rocket Labs or you know, Iron or some of the quantum companies. Like we've seen, we've seen shifts in those types of assets.
A
So your team is one of the teams that are publishing or launching leveraged ETFs right now? Yes, they're controversial. I would say some investors like them, some investors use them as trading vehicles day to day, week to week, whereas others simply dismiss them and see them as a gambling or a risky tool. Explain to me your view on leveraged products.
B
Yeah, so I think those are all great points and what I will say is that levered ETFs are, are not right for everyone. Right. They are right for sophisticated traders who understand the risks involved with trading or holding levered ETFs over time. So it's good for investors to understand that a levered etf, a two times levered single name ETF is meant to track its underlying single name or index for a one day period. Right. So if you're looking to hold a 2x ETF for a month and a stock is up 10%, you shouldn't expect to be up 20%. You might be up 20, you might be up 30, you might be down 20.
A
You know, wait, explain the math a bit more.
B
I think that this is what throws people off. Right. So they're meant to return the daily multiple of the underlying asset for a period of one day. So every day you should make a decision about holding the ETF for a period of time longer than one day. Right. So for a month, your return is each day's cumulative return. It's not, you know, one to 30 times two. It's day one, day two, day three, day four. So I think that's where investors have had confusion in the past. You know, it's, they're very, they're very powerful tools. And I think like earnings is really when you see a lot of investors using them. So for example, if you think Alphabet is going to come out and you know, blow it out of the water and you want to go 2x Alphabet, an investor might buy the fund, right, and hold it for one day. And if Google's up 10%, they'll get 20% that day. Right. But then if it's, if it's down the next day, right, by 10%, they're not flat, they're in the red because you got that 20%.
A
Wow. And the rebalance, See this is something even, I'm not entirely clear on it, but the perception, I think, oh, if you buy, let's say 2x just the index, yes. S&P is up 20% in a year, the assumption is that you will be up 40%.
B
Yeah. And that's incorrect. If S and p was up 20% in one day, you'd be up 40%. So that's, that's the important thing. So what I would say is a good rule of thumb is trend is your friend, right? And volatility tends to lead to decays. So if you have a trending market and you hold an A2X Daily Levered ETF for a period of time, more than one day, the compounding will work in your favor because each day you're rebalancing, the compounding is increasing your, your exposure essentially to the underlying asset. And, and as the market keeps going up and up and up, the ETF is doing quite well. But if you're up and down, up and down, up and down, the Funds tend to decay. So again, the biggest thing is you're, it's, it's two times the return of the asset that the lever ETF is, is tracking for a one day period. We reset the fund at night, right. And then the next day, whatever happens, it's, you know, two times that next day's performance. And so it's really important to understand that you should make a decision every day on the direction that you expect from the underlying index that you're tracking and the leverage point.
A
Okay, so one last point on this. Can you explain what you mean by decay?
B
Yeah. So decay just means essentially a loss, right? Like the, the fund will go down if the market is choppy more than,
A
let's say if it goes down 5%, then you're going to lose more than 5% by the next day. Is that.
B
Well, so say, so say you have like a, a three times levered QQQ or something like that, right? And, and it's up 5. Like say QQQ's up 5% that day. And you have a bull fund. So you made 15%. Right. So 3x times 5% is 15%. Now let's say you hold it, you don't sell it. The ETF issuer rebalances the fund on the next day. If the NASDAQ is now down 5%, right. You're going to be down 17 and a quarter. So you're not.
A
So it's up on the one day.
B
If we're at the end of day two, say you held it for two full days and on one day it was up 5 and on day two it was down 5%. Nasdaq, you're down 2.25 because you got 5% right. Times three. So you got 15%. We rebalanced the fund. So you have more exposure now. Right. It's the compounding. We rebalanced the fund and now on day two, if it's down 5% again, you've lost 17 and a quarter. Right. So it's negative 2.25. So it's not up five. Down five is zero like it is with a single stock stock.
A
Okay. See this is something I think most investors do not realize.
B
Check out the lever. Check out the, like our website or you know, I think we try to explain it that you know. Yeah, like it's again, trend is your friend. So you want, you want to make a decision when you buy a 2x ETF about the direction and whether or not you think it's going to be volatile. You want to monitor Monitor it every day and just, you know, kind of understand that these are really trading tools for sophisticated investors.
A
Okay, so some of the names that you have 2x on, Eli Lilly, Oracle, Iron, Broadcom. These are huge stocks, Hugely popular stocks.
B
Yes.
A
What kind of demand do you see for these various names?
B
Yeah, I mean there's incredible demand. I mean you've seen massive growth in the leverage space. You know, there's hundreds of billions of dollars of international exposure to these names. Billions of dollars have come into the single name leverage stocks as well this year. It's the fastest level of growth that levered and reversed ETFs have ever seen.
A
Wow. I guess that one that could lead someone to say, okay, maybe we are in a bubble based on the exuberance and the willingness of investors to take on risk right now, even if the earnings don't point to a bubble. You could say maybe the sentiment suggests frothiness.
B
Not necessarily. Because if you look at. So first of all, Single name levered ETFs are a fairly new phenomenon. So I think that part of it is just that there are new products in the market that weren't there before and people are excited about them and trade and are trading them. They just didn't exist before. Right. And then yeah, I mean if you look at the market in general, just over the last decade or so, you know, you had a couple blips, obviously, 22 being one of them. But for the most part the market has been kind of upward trending for a long time. And so, you know, people have, have looked at whether it's you know, leveraged index based products or leveraged single name stocks or, or thematic AI ETFs and things like this and have had favorable results because of the direction of the market. Right. So it's, it's hard to say like before, like when I think about bubble, I think about like meme mania and not necessarily adoption of derivative based funds. You know what I mean?
A
Interesting.
B
Yeah.
A
So I, I always think back to 1929. I read Andrew Ross Orkin's book. Yes, very good book. But one of the elements he described in the run up to 1929 was how there was a proliferation of new products in financial markets that they were selling or pushing on retail investors. And I always think of that and I think we've pretty much seen that every few years happen in the last 20 years. Like it's not a new. New financial products are not a new phenomenon. And I don't think that necessarily means there's a bubble. And to be clear, I'm very bullish on the market right now. I'm optimistic that it's not a bubble. So I'm not in the bubble camp. Okay, Sylvia, I want to ask you about this. Is there something that you believe right now in markets that maybe you think everyone else is on the other side of?
B
I don't know that everybody else is on the other side because you just said you weren't. But I do think that the bubble talk is picking up and a lot of investors think that we're at a bubble. And what I would say is that I can't predict the future. Right. I'm not smarter than the market. None of us are. In the end, we'll see what happens. But I just think when you have double digit earnings growth, seven consecutive earnings seasons, with an upward trajectory, this massive tailwind of AI, that's going to really change how the largest Companies in the S&P 500 operate and generate revenues and things like this. Employment is, is, is pretty stable. Consumers are spending. You know, even the banks are starting to look good. Right. M and A is starting to look good. You're getting more IPOs into the market. And I think when, like, good things happen, it often gets thrown into the bubble camp. But it could also be that we're in a soft landing with some steady, reasonable growth for some years ahead of us. And so what I would say is that I, I, I think that long term there will be a lot of, there could be a lot of opportunity in, you know, things like quantum AI power and infrastructure, and a lot of these themes can continue forward.
A
I agree with you. I'm, I think that there is so much unbelievable opportunity in the market right now, and it's almost better that there are people sounding the alarm on bubbles because that probably means there's more opportunity.
B
Yes.
A
If there's, you know, if everyone's getting bearish suddenly, there's probably pockets of the market that you can do very well in. Where can people go to find more of your work online?
B
Defiancetfs.com, our website's a good place, but we're also all over social media, X, LinkedIn, things like this.
A
And you're a prolific CNBC contributor. Every time I turn on the tv, you're sitting at the CNBC desk. Sylvia, thank you so much for your time, and you're welcome on the show anytime.
B
Thank you for having me.
In this episode, host Phil Rosen interviews Sylvia Jablonski—one of the most influential minds in thematic investing—about the strategies and sectors that define the current and future opportunities in the AI trade. They discuss capital flows into next-gen AI themes, the misunderstood rotation narrative, bubbles versus healthy markets, quantum computing as an investable theme, the evolution of defense and infrastructure, and the nuanced mechanics of leveraged ETFs. The conversation provides an actionable roadmap for investors seeking to benefit from AI-driven disruption over the coming decade.
(00:00–03:22)
"ETF wrappers…create a good allocation spot for when markets are shifting."
— Sylvia (01:36)
(03:13–04:51)
"It looks like perhaps investors bought on the dip."
— Sylvia (03:59)
(04:51–07:43)
"If the earnings are there to justify [valuations], perhaps it’s not a bubble… The market will essentially demand those results at some point and that'll determine whether or not there's a bubble."
— Sylvia (05:46)
(07:43–10:30)
"We anticipate that…the electricity needs are going to grow by like 135% by 2030…there's just so much demand for [AI power and infrastructure] right now."
— Sylvia (09:08)
(10:30–14:44)
"You want exposure to the pure play quantum names, but then you also want the bigger names… that actually fund it, invest in it, research it and will protect the portfolio in pullbacks."
— Sylvia (14:44)
(15:28–16:22)
(16:22–18:10)
"The face of defense…has completely changed….AI is very much driving geopolitics now."
— Sylvia (17:02)
(18:10–19:52)
(19:52–21:17)
(21:17–26:44)
"If S&P was up 20% in one day, you'd be up 40%. But over a year, that's not how it works."
— Sylvia (23:43)"The biggest thing is… it's two times the return of the asset… for a one day period."
— Sylvia (24:44)
(26:44–28:42)
(28:42–31:09)
"When you have double digit earnings growth, seven consecutive earnings seasons, with an upward trajectory, this massive tailwind of AI… it could also be that we're in a soft landing."
— Sylvia (30:30)
| Segment | Topic | Timestamp | |------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------------------| | Hot sectors & AI flows | Capital rotation, new products, thematic ETFs | 00:00–03:22 | | Rotation myth/debunked | Is it rotation or new money entering? | 03:13–04:51 | | AI bubble debate | Earnings, capex, expectations, bubble logic | 04:51–07:43 | | Next AI leg | Quantum, infrastructure, robots, defense | 07:43–10:30 | | Quantum’s investability| History, current state, commercialization | 10:30–14:44 | | Defense investing | Modern defense, non-traditional names, ETFs like JEDI| 16:22–18:10 | | Best 5-year position | AI power & infrastructure, future growth | 18:10–19:52 | | Thematic cycles | What signals the end or resurgence of a theme? | 19:52–21:17 | | Leveraged ETF 101 | How do they work, who should use them, pitfalls | 21:17–26:44 | | Market bubbles | Is exuberance a warning? Product innovation context | 26:44–28:42 | | Bullish or bubble? | Economic health and room to run | 28:42–31:09 |
The episode is a must-listen for any investor serious about thematic ETFs, AI opportunities, the next leg of technology investing, or the use of sophisticated market tools in modern portfolios.