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A
Paisley, I have to ask you, is this the popping of the tech bubble right now?
B
It might feel like it. I do think that it is healthy for markets to see a bit of a retracement. The bigger picture, I would say is markets have been priced for perfection. And so anytime you see something slightly deviate from perfection, you're going to have these essentially these spillovers, these rollovers, whether it's down 5%, 10% at this point with the run up we've seen, I think oftentimes markets and investors say this is healthy for markets. Let's kind of reset, refocus and think about where we're headed long term. So I do think we were due for a bit of a pullback. And especially in the sectors in the area of the market that we've seen,
A
how do you determine whether this is something like a healthy correction or if it's actually, hey, we just hit the top and we're going down.
B
One thing that I think was comforting, at least with today's sell off, is that we actually saw some of the more defensive parts of the market do quite well or not pull back as much. And that's what to me is an indication of it's more of a valuation play and it's more of thinking about how do we re rate from a technical perspective versus fundamental, which to me says it's probably more of a short term spillover or pullback in the market. If we saw everything crater today alongside some of the semis, some of the chips and some of the AI trade, I'd be a little bit more concerned. But we saw financials do quite well and we saw consumer staples do quite
A
well as, as well, which I guess would be the opposite of what you would say, see if it was a real crash.
B
And typically when you have these crashes right, they start slowly and then they pick up steam. And so it's a little early to say anything pre mature, but I do think from a valuation perspective and just the resiliency of the markets right now in the economy broadly, I don't think that this is going to be a nasty crash.
A
In the last year and a half, everyone buying the dip has pretty much been right, and that's mostly been retail. With Liberation Day, start of the Iran war, do you think that buying the dip, it's probably the reflex right now? Do you think that's the right reflex, if you can say that?
B
I would say a bit of that mentality of buying the dip is partially why we're seeing this rollover in South Korea. Equity markets today, there's a lot of leverage, there's a lot of retail investors there that have bid up these assets to really lofty extreme levels. And so that buy the dip mentality does have ramifications. With that being said, markets have shown us over the last several years that buy the dip mentality continues to work. I think the one wildcard that we're faced with today, maybe that was different a couple months ago, is, is what we've seen with just the new Fed chair War stepping in. There's a lot of uncertainty there as to the direction of rates, the communication, the transparency that they have. And so a lot of the buy the dip mentality has been underpinned by the fact that the Fed has always stepped in and cut rates when markets truly need it. When we're down 5 or 10%, it's a buy the dip. When we're down 15 to 20, that's in the past. Over the last few years, whether it was Covid or the tariff tantrum, the Fed starts to rush in and share information, news, transparency around, yeah, we'll support markets, we'll cut rates. I think we're in a bit of a different period right now. And so that buy the dip mentality may be something that we've perhaps taken for granted the last few years.
A
I've seen so much about people saying Warsh is going to come in and possibly hike before the end of the year. I think that's a load of bogus. I think President Trump put him there to lower rates and the market isn't pricing that in right now, am I? Do you think that's a too simple way of looking at it? Almost like politically, I think that Warsh
B
is in a bit of a predicament because we know he was voted in and he was selected because he wanted to cut rates. He's now faced with inflation data that won't allow him to do so. Personally, my take on some of the recent communications from War and the market's repricing that we're going to see hikes, one and a half hikes, I think right now is priced in through the end of this year. I think he's going to be in a wait and see. I think this gives him a little bit more space or flexibility to collect data. He's put out these various task forces. And so by just being a little bit more hawkish, perhaps in his commentary, I think he's letting markets understand that there's a lot of information here to digest. I personally don't think that he is going to hike in the next couple months. A big factor for that being inflation data. Although elevated outside of the energy and the oil concerns in the last couple months, it is a bit sticky and shelter and some of the services. But overall, I think even pre kind of the Middle east tensions earlier this year, inflation was moving in the right direction. So provided outside of oil and energy, which is more transitory. Transitory, excuse me, and it's an inflationary nature. Outside of that, unless we see a big spike in some part of the market for higher inflation, I don't think we're going to see hikes this year.
A
I'm with you on that. A lot of the work that you focus on is trying to build portfolios that work in any business cycle, market cycle. When you look at the macro backdrop right now and also the AI trade, how are you thinking about what to allocate in a portfolio right now?
B
So my thoughts coming into this year is what I'm coining prudent participation. And although that might sound boring, it's how do you stay in the market, how do you stay focused on those longer term horizons, but do so in a way that allows you to sleep at night? And some might find that lazy. I personally being in the industry, don't have time to sit around all day and day trade my own portfolio and frankly I'd probably be not very good at it. So how do I diversify my risks? How do I build a portfolio that I know can weather an inflationary environment or even a deflationary environment. So to me that says spreading your chips around a bit, but also being thoughtful about how you're taking on risk in the portfolio. And I think the biggest concern, well, twofold, I would say first and foremost concentration within the AI related tech sector is one that we can dive into. The second though is I think markets are still very much underpricing the risk of only holding a simple portfolio of stocks and bonds. Bonds have not been the ballast in the portfolio since really 2022. And with inflation above it's a rough threshold, but about 2.5% or higher, we tend to see the stock bond correlation break down, which is exactly what's happened, like I said, going back about three to five years now. And so as an investor and you're building portfolios, you have to ask yourself why do I hold bonds? And it's not to say that bonds should be kicked out of the portfolio, but from an allocator perspective, do I hold them as my equity offset to reduce risk in the Portfolio, do I hold them for income? Those are the two primary objectives. Well, I can tell you there's a better way to meet those objectives, whether it be income or diversification in today's marketplace. So thinking about liquid alternatives as a better diversifier to equity risk, thinking about equity income solutions that can give you much higher yield. I personally still hold bonds in my portfolio, long duration bonds, which has been a horrific trade the last few years. I don't hold it in there to make money. I hold it in there for that tail risk hedge when you really need it. So as an investor, again, going back to those risks, stock bond correlations are one of them. And then I do think kind of where we started today's conversation and some of the rollover in markets we saw today with the AI related trade. Those markets are priced for perfection. We've had three years in a row where the market's been carried higher by this small part of the market. And for me, I'm less so about reaching in those final innings for extra return because we've had tremendous returns, historical returns the last few years. And it's more about how do you harvest some of those gains, stay in the market and do so in a way that's a little bit more prudent through diversification.
C
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A
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C
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A
I wanna ask you more about this stock bond correlation when we see it doing what it's doing right now. What does that actually mean? Like, how should we respond as investors to stock bond correlation?
B
Yeah, so it was. If we. Let's just back up a little bit. So if we go back to really the beginning of this century, which sounds dramatic to say, but 2000, kind of right after the tech bubble, we saw something interesting happen with stock bond correlations. They went negative. We were in a deflationary environment, and we really saw this environment or backdrop where your bonds and your stocks together built a perfect portfolio. You had your income in one side, you had your growth risk in the other. When equities rolled over, your bonds showed up from a ballast perspective. So that lasted from really like 2000 to 2020 when Covid hit. So once we saw the supply shock and really the inflation start to come out of markets, that inflation, of course drove the Fed to hike rates. So in 2022, when that started to happen, the stock bond correlation after 25 years of being negatively correlated rose rapidly. And so that positive correlation now that we see between stocks and bonds, much of which is driven by the fact that bond yields are higher and there's inflation in the market, what that means then, from an allocator perspective is you no longer have that diversification, you no longer have that ballast in the portfolio.
A
Is it necessarily a bad thing if when one thing goes up, the other thing also goes up? Because yes, it might run counter to the diversification argument, but also if asset prices are going up, why get out of that?
B
Yeah. So it's not necessarily a bad thing. Short answer is no. But if bonds are in the portfolio to really weather the storm, when your equities roll over, then it becomes a bad thing. And that's exactly what we saw in 2022. I know that's an extreme example, but it happened, and it was recent where both stocks and bonds sold off. We also saw it more recently, really the first quarter, and now into like the second quarter of 2026, with stocks and bonds moving in the same direction, there's just really no place to hide from a defense perspective. And so the investors out there that are really counting on the bond component of their portfolio to hold up for them, kind of going to have a rude awakening. And then I would also maybe mention that AQR actually wrote a paper. It's a couple years old now, but still extremely relevant. I just reread it yesterday. And the importance from a portfolio construction standpoint is when you have two assets that are positively correlated and you put them together, you're actually not reducing the volatility or the risk of your portfolio as much as you had hoped. And so what that means then from an investor perspective is the same stock Bond portfolio from 10 years ago versus today is going to have higher volatility and greater drawdown with the same exact asset classes. So essentially you're reducing your return, increasing your risk while holding the same asset classes within the portfolio.
A
I think that makes sense. One of the conversations I keep having with investors portfolio managers is that the old way of evaluating stocks and your portfolio doesn't really fit the AI era and the AI economy. One, I think the speed of things changes a lot, but also a lot of these companies valuations have gone so parabolic and in many cases their earnings have actually gone faster than price. How do you think about whether we should be relying on these traditional valuation metrics to make our decisions today?
B
So, so I will preface with the fact I may be biased. I actually spent quite a bit of time on a team that developed capital market assumptions which essentially the underpinning of a long term capital market assumption is valuation. What we know, of course the facts are that valuations do not drive returns in the short term. If they did, we would not have the market that we just had over the last couple years. I do still think that valuations play a very important part of constructing a portfolio for the next five to ten years. Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately speaking, investors have become hyper focused on, as you said, quick news flow, what's happening today, how can I get the next quick buck essentially. And what I think we're starting to see, and even some of the spillover in South Korea equity markets that are hyper concentrated and really focused on the technology trade, is that while valuations might not impact return in the short term, if you're a long term investor and you're not constantly overhauling your portfolio or day trading, you are looking forward, you are thinking forward at least several years of your long term objectives and horizon, as many financial advisors are building portfolios for their clients that are 10, 20 years out into the future. And what I think we found is with the historical returns that we've experienced over the last, say 2023, which really started with Nvidia in May of 2023. So we just passed our three year anniversary of this tech craze is that once you had these historical returns and you see this margin expansion, yes, momentum begets more momentum. And so there is a bit of this, you know, ride the wave till it's over. But at some point when that comes to a slowdown or even a Halt valuations matter very meaningfully. And so that kind of then moves into how I'm thinking about markets today is I'm not essentially just running out and buying the cheapest stocks. I think what we've seen is there's a reason that things are priced cheaply. But if there's a way for us as investors to be more thoughtful when we are gaining access to parts of these markets, like technology, for instance, our communication services also, that have seen extraordinary run ups, there's a way to access parts of those markets that are maybe priced a little bit more prudently.
A
How do you find those corners of the market?
B
So one example I could say would be maybe equal weight technology. And so really interesting if you just look at the year to date performance of the market cap tech weighted ETF sector ETFs that are out there or the equal weight tech sector etf, you. And if I were to pull those listening right now, which one do you think has outperformed? You'd probably say the market cap because that's just been the general trend. And we typically see dislocations between equal weight and kind of market cap weighted. Surprisingly, the equal weight and the market cap weighted tech sectors have actually performed in line with each other, which is extraordinary to think that you have all this concentration in the market cap tech sector ETFs and then you have an extremely diversified basket and the equal weight and they've delivered the same returns in an extraordinarily high return environment. That tells you that there's a lot of additional components or companies within the technology sector that are seeing really strong price return and momentum not only within kind of their top line, but also the bottom line which is then feeding into why these stocks are getting run up. So even though returns have been really extraordinary the last several months, again, this isn't me shying away from things that are priced higher versus priced lower. It's just finding ways to stay in market and do so in a way that's a little bit more diversified than just the concentrated bet.
A
Well, one of the most surprising stats I've seen this year is that The S&P493 has outperformed the MAG7 so far.
B
Yes.
A
Which I mean that's a total kind of narrative violation the last several years. I mean, it sounds like this is the same trend that you're pointing to.
B
It is. I think we've seen a lot of it. I mean, I'm with you. Sometimes I have to double check these numbers that I hear because intuitively it doesn't make sense because we, we keep hearing this narrative in the media of hyper concentration, which is true to some respect, but there's been a lot of noise under the surface in a positive way. There's been, especially in the first quarter of this year, a lot more breadth within the market and a lot more companies beyond just the large mega cap tech ones that have delivered really strong returns, whether that be in small cap. Value stocks have done really well, especially as interest rates have backed up. As we know, that's one of the main reasons in 2022 that growth stocks got hit so hard was the really sharp increase in interest rates. And so that's why value stocks have also performed well this year. So there's a lot more going on, there's a lot more exciting parts of the market. And that comes back to a common question, is, you know, are we going to see this catastrophic spillover or bear market within equities? And there's a way for the rest of the market to kind of rise without the concentrated, overvalued parts of the market falling through.
A
Everything you're saying, I'm with you. And I think it surprises a lot of people to hear anything that points against a top heavy market because that has been really one of the biggest themes since the AI trade started. You wrote this recently. Investors are rewarding AI exposure rather than profitability. What does this mean?
B
I think most people are seeing the headlines and saying technology stocks are exciting. AI is exciting. SpaceX just IPO'd. There's this frenzy around these themes and I think naively, a lot of investors are diving into the pool head first and not understanding what they're owning. And I think as we go back to talking about, you know, whether it's technicals or fundamentals, I very much believe that the last few years have been, has been driven by technicals. I think everybody's diving in. There's flows, there's Momentum, there's new ETFs coming to market every single day. Hundreds of new ETFs coming to market every single day, month. And so as an investor, you're inundated with these exciting, flashy shiny toys. And ultimately I think that we've kind of forgotten our upbringing. I went through the CFA program, which is very much fundamental valuation based when it comes to understanding what you're owning. And so there's a lot of noise out there. And so how do you sift through that and how do you think about those long term opportunities?
A
You know, I just published this newsletter yesterday and I wrote that There have been 34 stocks in the last year that have joined the triple digit club, so 100% or more in the last 12 months. A lot of people I know own many of these stocks. Something like Micron, right? It's up, you know, a thousand percent in the last year. If you're holding a stock that's just run up on momentum and a lot of earnings strength too. How, like, how would you know when it's time to take profits and when to sell if you have done well just by holding and actually going against your instinct to maybe take profits?
B
I always enter any trade with some kind of risk controls around it. So whether it's a stop loss or thinking about, like what is the objective of investing, whether it's a specific stock sector, asset class, and especially as it relates to individual stocks which can have a lot of volatility. Micron specifically. Right. Tomorrow's earnings report will be really interesting. But if you have a specific price target, I think that's the best way to think about entry and exit because oftentimes emotions of course overtake us. Something like Micron, which has done extremely well, is an example of a stock that I think is priced for perfection. I don't think the market will allow it to come in even slightly below and maybe not even at forward guidance. And I think what's super interesting is the market has given guidance for Micron's earnings tomorrow that are actually a little bit more lofty than Micron has guided themselves. And so unless they beat their own expectations tomorrow, that price again is priced for, or excuse me, that stock is priced for perfection, which just means there's limited upside and a lot of downside. The same could have been said, right, for maybe Nvidia and some of the early days. But again, markets weren't pricing that for perfection, which is why Nvidia climbed so rapidly starting in 2023 is it came out of nowhere. All eyes are on Micron now. There's a lot of analysts covering it. And especially with the spillover that we saw today with, with the chip stocks in South Korea, there's now even more mounting pressure on that. So for me personally, I don't want to hold something that's priced for perfection. I want to hold something that's either early in its journey or perhaps is just priced appropriately for where the themes and the trends are going.
A
A lot of the Micron bulls would say it's still early on Micron and it could be.
B
It's one of only three major chip producers, memory Chips specifically that's in the marketplace. So that's like pretty like monopolized part of the market that with Samsung and SK Hynix. Yes, SK Hynix, which just took over Samsung as the largest company now, which is incredible. But with the demand that we're seeing there and with so few players being able to deliver, there's plenty of room for that to continue to run. I guess it comes down to a market timing question and do you want to keep your chips on the table at this stage in the game?
A
There are so many friends I have that are not professional investors and they don't work in finance and now they all own or know about Micron and they ask me about Micron and to me when non investment people start asking about, you know, a fairly niche memory stock starts to get a little nerve wracking I think.
B
Yeah, it's when your family members start asking about SpaceX IPO and how do they gain access to it. I will say though, it all comes down to sizing you can hold. I mean it's no different than holding Bitcoin, which I still hold in my personal account. If you size it appropriately and you know, the risk that you're taking, the volatility and you're comfortable with riding that wave, there's nothing wrong with that. So the difference between a, you know, 3 to 5% position and a 30 to 50% position really kind of makes or breaks the discussion we're having.
A
What else do you like in this market?
B
I'm a big fan of hard assets broadly for two reasons. On the back of the discussion of the AI trade and that theme broadly, in order for us to continue to deliver, we need data centers as a build out. And we're in the early days of really putting the infrastructure in the ground to support these data warehouses and these data centers. And so from a long term play I think there's an opportunity in infrastructure specifically to have strong returns and also some income potential as well and be less sensitive, excuse me, to inflation.
A
These are public companies, right?
B
Could be public or even some private investments. There's a lot of different ways to gain access to infrastructure. In particular, I'm actually more of a fan of more of the kind of indirect play, more actually real assets themselves, whether that be through interval funds or direct private markets through infrastructure. So I think that's one area of the market that's super interesting really. Anything that's willing to fight inflation in this environment I think is attractive. So commodities, I know that's also been a while Ride. Some of these asset classes are something that I think are under owned at this point. Gold and silver was super interesting coming into the beginning of this year. We've obviously seen that cool down quite a bit. I still think there's plenty of interest, whether it's gold as a safe haven asset, which debatable if that remains to be safe haven. We saw a bit of the sell off today in gold and silver, even though we did see a risk off tone in the market. Copper is an area of the market as well. That's super interesting. A lot of that feeding into AI, data center, build out, out and warehouse. But again, commodities broadly. But I think one, as I look at investor portfolios quite frequently of our clients, commodities are still woefully under owned because they've been quite deflationary up until really 2026. A lot of that is because oil and gas makes up a big part of commodity markets or indices. And so until February, March of this year, oil and gas has been very deflationary. So now that it's inflationary again, and now that we've seen commodity allocations start to get a little bit of love and attention, I think there's a really attractive opportunity there, provided there's a more flexible or dynamic way rather than just holding a commodity index that's static or passive. Being more thoughtful about finding opportunities within
A
commodities broadly, if you're a retail investor and maybe you don't have access to private investments or alternatives, would you be pushing them to a commodity ETF of some sort?
B
Yeah, so all of this would be accessible and that's why I love it as well in Daily Liquid ETFs. So there's plenty of dynamic, flexible, tactical, active commodity strategies that are available in mutual funds or ETFs. Going back to my comments earlier on infrastructure, there's now increasingly more infrastructure ETFs coming to market. Some of them are within equity, some of them more within credit. And so there's very easy ways to access this as a retail investor, which is why I think we've seen this proliferation of active management start to be reintroduced into the market is kind of shifting away from pure passive. Expressing your individual personal views or objectives through some of these ETFs in the marketplace.
A
So just to help me understand here, when you talk about commodities, oil, that's a big one. Gold, silver, copper. Are there any other commodities that you're watching that you think are worth investing in right now?
B
Yeah, this might be a little bit too niche in the market for commodities, but several strategies that we invest in at simplify, have access to agricultural, livestock, soft commodities. I mean just some interesting stories like 2024 cocoa was up like 200%. I remember live cattle and cattle feeder has been a really interesting market. I mean especially what we're seeing going on in like from a political standpoint. Even late last year with just the reduced cattle herd here in the US Trump came out and announced that we were going to start importing beef from Argentina to help increase the cattle and beef production here within the US which then depressed prices. So there's a lot of opportunity across the market that kind of sits underneath the surface and that's actually where you oftentimes will see really big opportunity for gains in a portfolio. So if you're in a passive commodity index, it's probably not holding a lot of those more unique parts of the market.
A
Paisley, if I'm starting a new portfolio today, $100,000, where are you putting those dollars in a portfolio?
B
So I'm still quite bullish on equities. As much as I just said the word prudent and being cautious. I do think that investors will be rewarded for taking on risk in the marketplace. As long as you're cognizant, you spread out some of that exposure through being diversified within different pockets of the equity market. So maybe more value oriented stocks, like I said, equal weighting kind of some of your equity exposure, looking at more quality oriented companies. That goes back to our comment earlier of technicals versus fundamentals. For me, bonds in particular, if you have a specific cash flow or income objective for your lifestyle, you're in retirement, whatever that may be. There's actually some pretty more innovative ways to get exposure kickoff really attractive yield within the portfolio through a lot of the auto callable ETFs which are like structured notes. There's a lot of equity income solutions as well that offer yields that are double that of core bonds today. So if you're really just looking for something simple and basic, I think core bonds can still serve a purpose, but a much smaller slice of the pie than in the past. But I think where again most investors are not paying enough attention to is in the true diversifiers within your portfolio. And we're talking about liquid options to have in your portfolio, things that can be accessed in a nice packaged etf. So there's not minimums, there's not high hurdle fees or lockups. It's just daily liquid exposure. And whether that's hard assets like infrastructure or commodities diversifiers, strategies that can go long short, manage futures Trend following and even some of the global macro solutions that are now packaged in ETFs. I think all of these offer investors a great way to complement and reduce some of the risk within their portfolio.
A
I'm going to press you on this. If we're building me a portfolio from scratch, 100,000 bucks, I'm 29 years old, high risk, very long investment horizon. What percentages go where?
B
Yeah, I would say personally, given your time horizon, I think equities are still going to be a friend of yours long term. I do think because of the environment that we're in today with higher inflation, I think there's a greater return potential to increase some of the alternative exposure. So for someone who's roughly 30 years old, $100,000 portfolio, I'd probably have 90%, 85 to 90% of the portfolio in equities for long term with about 10 to 15% of that in alternative diversifiers, hard assets, inflationary type assets.
A
Is that like gold?
B
Gold, commodity infrastructure, managed futures. So again, about 85 to 90% long term growth, risk exposure through equities. I would have diversification beyond just the US Markets as well. I know that with the dollar hitting some new highs today, we're probably going to see a little bit of a kind of trail off in some of the strength in global equities. But I think longer term there's still a lot of opportunity there. But a US centric equity portfolio, one that has a little bit of diversification kind of on the corners I think will do you well.
A
And the last 10% would be what? Bonds.
B
So I would say 90% in equities and then 10% is more just the alternatives.
A
Oh, oh, I thought you meant. Okay, does bitcoin fit in somewhere?
B
I hold bitcoin in my personal account.
A
Me too. I own a lot of bitcoin between
B
my bitcoin and my long bonds. Maybe you guys shouldn't be listening to me though.
A
Well, it's funny because I've been a bitcoin bull for years at this point and because bitcoin has done so poorly in the last year, even though I have exposure to the AI trade, Bitcoin is dragging everything down because it's been a real laggard in the last. Geez, couple years almost.
B
Yeah, it has. I mean that's absolutely something that trades on technicals. We saw a peak, really, I think it was last October. It's really been cut in half from a price perspective. But again, I see it as an alternative source of risk in the portfolio. Keyword there risk. It's not going to be your equity hedge, but it's going to provide potential upside, something that's differentiated and something that's not really driven by fundamentals.
A
If we were to get together again in 12 months, of all the things we're talking about today, what do you think we're most likely to be wrong about?
B
I would say, and just this is recency bias. We tend to underestimate the resiliency of the equity market, specifically here within the US So we've been talking about an AI bubble for several years now and it has not come to fruition because the economy remains resilient through either monetary or fiscal policy, we're able to support any pockets of weakness and the consumer remains strong. Even though we've talked a lot about this K shaped recovery within markets. So I would say what we would be wrong on is the fact that we think it's time to diversify in our equity risk. So we'll see.
A
Whoa, there's probably people watching that would say that is the top signal that we're not going to be wrong about the AI bubble.
B
I hope so.
A
Paisley, where can people find your work online?
B
So Simplify us is our website. We post a lot of educational videos. We have a YouTube channel as well where we post our webinars. We do some monthly podcasts as well. So if you guys are looking for more information on how to introduce alternatives and think about unique sources of risk and return to traditional assets in a portfolio, please reach out and can you
A
share a bit more about the type of portfolios you manage?
B
Yeah. So we have, we have a multi asset business as well, which I oversee, which is really think about as your model portfolio business. So we work with a lot of our clients to put together multi asset, meaning kind of fund to fund type solutions to help meet specific objectives. That can be a target yield of anyone anywhere from 7 to 25%. I know that's a big number, but we have a lot of unique and innovative solutions on our shelf that allow us to hit those targets and then also that liquid alternative target. So how do you really put together the puzzle pieces to build something that's going to really help weather the storm when we do see equity market sell offs of 10, 15%, and especially in this environment where your bonds aren't showing up for you in that capacity, liquid alternatives can be a great solution. So we're putting those puzzle pieces together and then also we have over 40 ETFs of individual strategies that are income focused, alternative focused we use a lot of derivatives within our products for either income or hedging purposes as well.
A
Amazing. Thank you so much for your time. Paisley. Come back anytime you want.
B
Thanks for the invite.
Episode: Top Portfolio Manager: This Portfolio WINS the AI Trade
Date: June 24, 2026
Host: Phil Rosen
Guest: Paisley (Top Portfolio Manager at Simplify)
This episode features a deep dive into modern portfolio construction in the midst of the ongoing AI trade and market volatility. Host Phil Rosen and expert guest Paisley discuss whether the current tech pullback is a bubble popping or a healthy correction, the implications of positive stock-bond correlations, the challenge of old paradigms in the AI-dominated economy, and actionable strategies for investors seeking sustainable long-term returns. Paisley shares practical allocations for a hypothetical $100K portfolio and highlights overlooked assets and sectors for diversification.
Market Health vs. Collapse
Paisley argues the tech selloff "might feel like" a bubble pop, but frames it as a healthy phase (00:04).
“Markets have been priced for perfection. So anytime you see something slightly deviate from perfection, you're going to have... these rollovers... I think oftentimes markets and investors say this is healthy for markets." — Paisley (00:07)
Differentiating Correction from Crash
Defensive sectors (financials, consumer staples) performing well during the selloff reassure Paisley that it’s a valuation-driven pullback, not a broad crash (00:47–01:25).
Retail 'Buy the Dip' Mentality
Persisting dip buying, especially among retail investors in South Korea, has fueled some market excess (01:42–02:15). However, uncertainty around the new Fed chair Warsh's rate policy means this strategy could be riskier now than during past corrections.
"He's now faced with inflation data that won't allow him to [cut].... By just being a little bit more hawkish, perhaps in his commentary, I think he's letting markets understand that there's a lot of information here to digest." — Paisley (03:29)
Prudent Participation — Not Chasing Excess
Paisley’s philosophy centers on "prudent participation" — staying invested with risk-aware diversification rather than chasing every hot trend (05:04).
“How do you stay in the market, how do you stay focused on those longer term horizons, but do so in a way that allows you to sleep at night?” — Paisley (05:06)
AI Concentration Risks
Extreme gains have come from a small subset of AI/tech stocks. Paisley cautions against overconcentration; investors should “harvest some of those gains” and diversify (05:20–07:41).
Flaws in the Traditional Stock-Bond Portfolio
Higher inflation since 2022 broke down negative correlations; bonds haven’t cushioned portfolios, leading to higher volatility and drawdown for the same risk allocations as a decade ago (09:02–11:45).
“If bonds are in the portfolio to really weather the storm when your equities roll over, then it becomes a bad thing. And that’s exactly what we saw in 2022.” — Paisley (10:27)
Can We Still Rely on Traditional Valuations?
Valuations matter mostly in the long-term horizon. Short-term, “momentum begets more momentum,” but over time, buying into cheaper parts of crowded sectors (like equal-weight tech) can be prudent (11:45–14:27).
Equal Weight Tech Outperformance
Equal-weight and market-cap-weighted tech ETFs have performed in line, which means the tech rally has broadened across the entire sector (14:29–15:47).
The S&P 493 vs. The Mag7
Remarkably, the S&P 493 outperformed the “Mag7” (mega-cap tech stocks) so far this year—a reversal of narratives highlighting broadening market leadership (15:47–16:03).
“There’s been a lot more breadth within the market and a lot more companies beyond just the large mega cap tech ones that have delivered really strong returns.” — Paisley (16:03)
AI Exposure > Profitability
Paisley points out that investors are bidding up stocks simply for “AI exposure,” regardless of profitability. She warns that many are "diving into the pool head first and not understanding what they're owning." (17:08–18:29)
Managing Winners Like Micron and Nvidia
Sellers should have price targets and risk controls — emotional decisions can lead to regret, especially with “stocks that are priced for perfection.”
“The market has given guidance for Micron’s earnings tomorrow that are actually a little bit more lofty than Micron has guided themselves... unless they beat their own expectations... that stock is priced for perfection, which just means there’s limited upside and a lot of downside.” (19:07)
Position Sizing as Risk Management
Having outsized positions in volatile assets (like Micron or Bitcoin) is risky. Sizing positions appropriately (e.g., 3–5% vs. 30–50% of a portfolio) is crucial (21:46).
Infrastructure — The AI Buildout Play
Data center construction and buildout for AI require hard assets. Infrastructure and real assets can offer returns/income and resist inflation (22:15–22:52).
Commodities
Commodities, especially oil, gold, silver, and copper, are attractive due to under-allocation and rising inflation (22:53–24:37).
The market is starting to recognize diversified opportunities, including agricultural and livestock commodities (e.g., feeder cattle, cocoa).
“There’s a lot of opportunity across the market that kind of sits underneath the surface, and that’s actually where you oftentimes will see really big opportunity for gains in a portfolio.” (25:41)
Accessible through ETFs
Retail investors can access these themes via liquid active ETFs and mutual funds, not just private investments (24:49).
"Stock bond correlations are one of them... markets are still very much underpricing the risk of only holding a simple portfolio of stocks and bonds..." — Paisley (05:26)
“Investors are rewarding AI exposure rather than profitability.” — Phil Rosen referencing Paisley's recent writing (17:08)
“A US centric equity portfolio, one that has a little bit of diversification kind of on the corners, I think will do you well.” — Paisley (29:23).
"About 85 to 90% long term growth, risk exposure through equities. I would have diversification beyond just the US ... the last 10% is more just the alternatives." — Paisley (28:48–29:56)
“We tend to underestimate the resiliency of the equity market, specifically here within the US. We've been talking about an AI bubble for several years now and it has not come to fruition..." — Paisley (31:05)
Paisley’s perspective urges investors not to abandon market participation out of fear, but to pursue “prudent participation” — staying in the game through diversification, moderation, and thoughtful risk allocation. The current AI-led rally is broader than the headlines suggest, but the era of simple “60/40” portfolios is challenged by broken bond correlations. Broad exposure, alternatives, real assets, and vigilance for portfolio concentration risks are vital themes. The market is healthy, but investors must evolve their playbook for the new environment.
End of Summary