Full Signal Podcast: "Wall Street is IGNORING these stocks!"

Host: Phil Rosen | Guest: Todd Sohn (Chief ETF Strategist, Strategus)

Date: February 16, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Phil Rosen sits down with Todd Sohn, Chief ETF Strategist at Strategus, for a data-packed discussion on stock market sector rotations, ETF flows, and overlooked investment opportunities. They dissect the risks of overexposure to trillion-dollar tech stocks, analyze recent “metal mania,” and highlight contrarian plays in energy, healthcare, and industrial metals. Sohn also shares insights into the latest developments in leveraged ETFs, crypto flows, and tactical portfolio strategies for today's complex market landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Risks of Overexposure to Trillion-Dollar Companies

• Concentration Problem:
  • Sohn warns about "over ownership of a small cohort of names" (00:49), mainly trillion-dollar companies like Eli Lilly and Walmart now dominating fund allocations.
  • Most standard ETFs such as SPY, QQQ, and IWF hold disproportionately high weights in these giants:
    • SPY: 39%
    • QQQ: 48%
    • IWF: 56%
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 01:10):
    “…if you own large cap blend funds, S&P 500, large cap growth like the Russell 1000… they all own a large chunk of these names. And while that has been beneficial over time, you may just want to look under the hood of your portfolio and say wow, do I have too much exposure here?”

Diversifying When Mega-Cap Tech Dominates

• Alternatives for Diversification:
  • International equities (Europe, Japan, Canada, and emerging markets).
  • Natural resources—more exposure to metals, mining, energy.
  • Managed futures strategies—systematic long/short commodities and currencies.
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 02:53):
    “It’s all about going less correlated than adding more US type equities. I think that’s the way to do it.”
  • Sector tilts: Healthcare, energy, materials, though "a little bit more challenging for most people without being really hands on." (03:24)

The Latin America & Emerging Markets Upswing

• LatAm ETFs are attracting flows, seen as AI beneficiaries and key players in the global resource race:
  • Focus on Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Mexico for metals and mining exposure.
  • Growth after a decade dominated by tech and growth stocks.
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 03:54):
    “…emerging markets are good on the valuation…they’re also part of this resource hoarding story. Right. Everyone wants the natural resources and all the metals and whatnot.”

"Metal Mania": Explosive Moves in Precious Metals

• Record Moves in Silver ETFs:

  • Unprecedented surge in volumes for silver and gold ETFs ("not even parabolic"—a "crescendo").
  • Silver ETFs (SLV, SIVR) have surpassed the combined size of 30+ energy sector ETFs.
  • Reflects speculative flocking and "massive momentum play into silver" (05:00), likely near-term overdone.
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 06:35):
    “I personally think [metals are] probably a little bit capped, but I’ve been wrong…once I start to see this volatility and the volume, this metal mania…that makes me a little weary that things are way overdone on the sentiment front.”

• Covered Call Strategies in Metals:

  • Suggests using covered calls on gold/silver ETFs for participation without overexposure.
  • Interest mounting in industrial metals (copper, aluminum), but ETF options are slim.
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 06:56):
    “If you think that the juice for metals is kind of capped…I like the idea of going the covered call route just to stay involved, get income, just in case this falls off…”

Energy: Potential for Rebound & Under-Ownership

• Why Energy May Be the Next Contrarian Play:
  • Substantial outflows and "bad performance" over the past three years—lowest relative S&P 500 weight (3%).
  • Technical chart set-up signals "interesting risk reward."
  • As mega-cap tech pauses, energy could attract fast flows and outperform.
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 09:48):
    “Energy and healthcare have had the most outflow…[but] charts of energy have been this sideways range for months. And so that to me presents an interesting risk reward.”

Healthcare: From Beaten Down to Rebound Mode

• Recovery in Key Healthcare Segments:
  • Big Pharma and biotech showing strength, while managed care still struggles.
  • Both energy and healthcare seen as sectors with room to normalize after years of underperformance.
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 12:26):
    “Healthcare’s had a very good run in some cases…But Big Pharma has worked out really well and biotech to some extent. So I would still put energy and healthcare as two of the favors there…just think about how bad they’ve been for the last three to five years.”

Low Volatility ETFs & Defensive Rotation

• Low Volatility Play:

  • Funds focused on low volatility (consumer staples, pharma, insurance, energy) seeing increased interest as volatility picks up.
  • These strategies may return to favor, but typically require adoption by large model portfolios and institutional flows.
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 13:31):
    “Low volatility strategies could make a little bit of a comeback here. And I wonder if you’ll start to see money come back into those strategies.”

• Algorithmic Market Distortion:

  • Discuss how AI-driven flows and quant strategies twist what is "value" or "momentum."
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 16:17):
    “…we’re in a computer driven world now, AI driven world. And so the definition of what’s value could be massive.”

Crypto & Bitcoin ETF Flows: From Euphoria to Caution

• Cooling Flows Despite Mainstreaming:

  • Sharp outflows from crypto ETFs in 2026 amid Bitcoin’s decline (nearly 50% down from all-time highs).
  • Wealth managers (e.g., Vanguard, Morgan Stanley) now permit allocations, which may eventually stabilize demand.
  • Sohn sees a product glut (2x Dogecoin, Avalanche, etc.) as a sign of near-term exuberance now being unwound.
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 17:29):
    “Crypto flew a little too close to the sun. Right. We went from having spot bitcoin and spot Ethereum to really exotic exposures…that has coincided with this decline.”

• Risk-Reduction Strategies:

  • Covered call and buffer ETFs for crypto allow for income and some downside protection.
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 19:57):
    “…there are covered call crypto ETFs like there are for gold. So you could say, okay, I’m going to stay long bitcoin, but I want to generate income just in case it’s still on the decline.”

Leveraged & Single-Stock ETFs: The “Degenerate” End of the Market

• Growth and Risks:

  • Leveraged/inverse ETF assets now $150–$160 billion—only 1-2% of all ETF assets but significant trading influence.
  • Proliferation of single-stock leveraged ETFs to even tiny, volatile names—primarily a “lotto ticket” for retail.
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 23:59):
    “…they’re more lotto ticket plays I think, to be honest. But if there’s a name that’s only $1 billion in market cap and all of a sudden turns into the next Robinhood…it goes massively higher, then that levered product is going to see a lot of action.”

• Prediction Markets and Speculation:

  • Parallels between prediction markets and leveraged single-stock products in their speculative nature.

Software, AI, and Market Overreactions

• Sector Sell-Offs & Recovery Prospects:

  • AI-driven selloffs in software, financials, trucking.
  • Sectors hit hard, become “dead money” for a while—a slow trust rebuild required.
  • Market’s rapid move into industrials, resources, and “all that other stuff we haven’t really had to think about in a long time.” (28:08)
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 28:08):
    “Whenever a group goes through a big unwind like that it can take a while for it to recover. It could be months, it could be years for these things to really recover and regain the trust of the Street.”

• Next AI Impact Sectors?

  • Insurance and healthcare mentioned as potential future targets for AI-induced dislocation but may prove resilient.

Thematic & Factor Investing at Strategus

• Strategus Flagship ETF Suite:
  • SAMT: Strategus Thematic Opportunities ETF (diversified thematic approach—AI, power, reshorings, cash flow).
  • SAGP: Policy Opportunities Fund (exposure to top lobbying firms, heavy in industrials and healthcare; includes non-US firms lobbying US government).
  • SAMM: Momentum ETF (with defensive tactical overlay to go to cash).
  • Quote (Todd Sohn, 31:05):
    “It is what we would describe as thematic diversification…if one theme falls off, three or four other themes will keep it afloat.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Overexposure (01:10):

  • "It's almost like you're having too much ice cream, right? Too much ice cream, too many cherries on top, whipped cream, all that stuff. Especially now that some of these names have corrected a little bit."

• On Silver Mania (08:45):

  • “There's these two silver ETFs, SLV and SIVR...this move has been so wild that between flows and price appreciation, they were larger than the entire energy sector.”

• On Leveraged Stocks as “Lotto Tickets” (23:59):

  • “They’re more lotto ticket plays I think, to be honest…Most of the single set leverage stock ETFs have less than $25 million in it.”

• On Degenerate Trading (26:08):

  • "If you're going to play around there, that's not for serious types of money...You have to be pretty degenerate for the degens..."

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|-------------| | Concentration in Trillion-Dollar Companies | 00:00–02:32 | | Diversification & Alternative Assets | 02:32–03:39 | | LatAm & Emerging Markets Flows | 03:39–04:39 | | Precious Metal Mania & ETF Flows | 04:39–09:31 | | Energy and Healthcare Opportunities | 09:31–13:05 | | ETF Sector Flows & Low Volatility Strategies | 13:05–16:56 | | Algorithms and Market Distortion | 16:08–17:29 | | Crypto ETF Flows & Derivatives | 17:29–21:22 | | Leveraged/Inverse & Single-Stock ETFs | 21:22–27:25 | | Sector Sell Offs & AI Overreactions | 27:30–30:55 | | AI Impact on Future Sectors | 29:48–30:55 | | Strategus ETF Offerings (SAMT, SAGP, SAMM) | 31:05–33:48 |

Conclusion

This episode delivers an insider’s look at how ETF flows, sector rotation, and tactical portfolio decisions are shaping the post-mania landscape—for both professionals and everyday investors. Todd Sohn deconstructs mainstream market narratives and highlights overlooked areas like industrials, natural resources, and thematic diversification, while providing concrete tips to avoid the most dangerous traps (like speculative single-stock levered ETFs). His parting advice? Don’t sleepwalk through your allocations—the benchmarks of the past decade aren’t guaranteed to outperform in what’s next.