In this episode, I sit down with Rob Hamilton to talk through one of the themes that has quietly connected a lot of our conversations over the years: risk. We unpack the difference between living with risk versus explicitly pricing it, why Bitcoiners are often strong at spotting failures in banking and fiat systems but weaker at thinking from first principles about market structure, and why liquidity, credit, derivatives, and pricing across time matter so much more than many people realize. Along the way, we contrast the maturity of fiat markets with the relative underdevelopment of Bitcoin markets, and why that gap makes it harder for capital allocators to evaluate major changes with confidence.

We also spend a lot of time on a core claim: markets are amoral, but unavoidable. If you want to influence a market, you can’t pretend you’re above it; participation, non-participation, pricing, and refusal to price all communicate information. Rob and I use examples ranging from miners and treasury companies to Bitcoin Cash, SegWit2x, ETFs, and hash-rate rental markets to argue that Bitcoin’s next phase requires better market signals, deeper liquidity, and more serious thinking about how information gets expressed when the stakes are no longer small. This was a fun crossover, but also a serious conversation about what Bitcoin still needs if it wants to be taken seriously at global scale.

Magic Internet Math: https://magicinternetmath.com/
AnchorWatch: https://www.anchorwatch.com/about
Bitnomial: https://bitnomial.com/
Shelling Out: The Origins of Money by Nick Szabo: https://nakamotoinstitute.org/library/shelling-out/