Future of Freedom: "Should the U.S. Treat Cartel Boats as Military Targets?"

Host: Scot Bertram

Guests: Jacob Sullum (Reason) & Ammon Blair (Texas Public Policy Foundation)

Date: November 3, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of Future of Freedom explores the controversial U.S. policy under President Trump, which authorized drone strikes against suspected cartel boats in the Caribbean. Is this a necessary escalation against the cartels, or a dangerous, unjustified step that disregards justice and sovereignty? Host Scot Bertram facilitates a thoughtful, civil, and nuanced exchange between Jacob Sullum, a critic of the policy, and Ammon Blair, who supports it as an appropriate response to a genuine threat.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Nature of the Drone Strike Policy

Guest: Jacob Sullum (Reason)

• Describes the new policy as a “revolutionary” and dangerous departure from precedent, amounting to “murder” (01:17).
• Contrasts normal procedure—arrests and due process—with Trump’s summary executions based solely on suspicion of drug smuggling.
• Emphasizes the lack of due process and the risk of misidentification: “We have no idea what sort of evidence the President is relying on.” (05:10)
• Criticizes the logic comparing drug-related deaths to violent aggression or terrorism, noting double standards with alcohol-related deaths (02:46).

Notable Quote:

“He is attacking one particular method of smuggling by one particular route. And his telling, if he destroys a boat that's carrying drugs, that eliminates those drugs from the supply... That's not how this works.” —Jacob Sullum [07:08]

2. Effectiveness of Interdiction and the Supply Problem

Guest: Jacob Sullum

• Argues drone strikes will not meaningfully reduce drug flow or save lives as Trump claims; raises point about price elasticity and alternative trafficking routes (06:15–09:24).
• Dismisses Trump’s claim that every destroyed boat saves “25,000 lives” as “totally absurd,” comparing it to misleading statistics from previous administrations (07:11).

Notable Quote:

“This is just... complete nonsense in terms of the efficacy of this.” —Jacob Sullum [08:12]

3. Legal & Moral Precedent

Guest: Jacob Sullum

• No precedent exists for overt, lethal military action against non-combatant smugglers (11:01).
• Even if death penalties for trafficking were expanded by Congress, due process would be required—the current approach “jumps over all of that” (11:58).
• Identifies Trump’s rhetorical and practical alignment with Rodrigo Duterte’s extrajudicial killings in the Philippines (09:39).

Notable Quote:

“It's completely unprecedented to simply kill people who are not putting up any sort of violent resistance.” —Jacob Sullum [11:01]

4. Checks and Repercussions: Can/Could Congress Intervene?

Guest: Jacob Sullum

• Outlines paths Congress could take to oppose or limit such presidential actions, such as passing resolutions; references a failed attempt by Senator Rand Paul (13:13).
• Points to bipartisan discomfort, especially over transparency and lack of information made available to lawmakers.

5. Redefining the Threat: Cartels as Parallel Governments

Guest: Ammon Blair (Texas Public Policy Foundation)

• Argues that viewing cartels merely as drug trafficking organizations is “the problem with the American viewpoint” (16:18).
• Describes Mexican cartels as having evolved into insurgent, parallel governments exerting control over politics, agriculture, logistics, and even natural resources (16:46).
• Cites the violence in Mexican elections and political control as evidence of state capture: “Mayor is actually one of the most dangerous jobs in Mexico.” (18:05)

Notable Quote:

“They are now a parallel governance with Mexico.” —Ammon Blair [18:41]

6. International Relations: Mexico's Complicity?

Guest: Ammon Blair

• Asserts that the Mexican government is no longer a credible partner in counter-cartel operations and is, in effect, a state sponsor of cartel activity (19:59).
• Compares current Mexico to “a rich Afghanistan,” referencing U.S. strategic errors in Afghanistan due to underestimating government/insurgent symbiosis (20:23).

Notable Quote:

“We must treat Mexico as a government that 100% sponsors and allows the cartels to have sanctuary status within their country.” —Ammon Blair [20:57]

7. Legal Grounds for Military Action

Guest: Ammon Blair

• After FTO (Foreign Terrorist Organization) designation, the US now operates under Title 10, not just Title 50 law enforcement powers, allowing for direct military action (21:57).
• Cites Geneva Convention provisions and Title 10 “non-international armed conflict” status as justification for active military targeting of cartels.

Notable Quote:

“The FTO designation fully designated them as enemies... which allows us to have military action.” —Ammon Blair [22:28]

8. Evaluation of Drone Strikes: Effectiveness and Intelligence

Guest: Ammon Blair

• Sees drone strikes as a valuable deterrent and proportionate response, especially given the use of drones by cartels (23:54).
• Argues the US intelligence community is capable of accurately identifying cartel boat targets:

“If I through open source intelligence can figure out who they are, then the Department of War... can completely understand who is going to be on those boats.” [26:38]

• Advocates for using all forms of intelligence opened up via FTO designations and coordinated military/law enforcement responses.

9. What Would Success Look Like?

Guest: Ammon Blair

• Success means holding “everyone involved”—from smugglers to politicians—to account, including “adversary” states using cartels as proxies (27:53).
• Notes the adaptability of cartels and foreign actors (China, Venezuela, Colombia) in circumventing enforcement, raising the need for broad accountability and upstream action.

10. Department of Defense vs. Law Enforcement: Practical Impact

Guest: Ammon Blair

• Positioning operations under DoD authority creates unified command, allowing for intelligence and operational “seamlessness”—a break from inter-agency silos (29:22–31:34).
• Special operations tactics and full-task authority can be brought to bear, integrating DEA, FBI, HSI, and military units under a coordinated command.

11. Necessity of Congressional Codification

Guest: Ammon Blair

• Argues that while Title 10 and FTO designation provide current authority, Congressional and state-level codification (as in Rep. Chip Roy’s bill) is needed for lasting legality and legitimacy (31:44).

Memorable Quotes

• Jacob Sullum: “I'm trying to explain why that assessment is justified. Ordinarily, when you interdict drugs in the absence of violent resistance, you would not fire on a boat, you would not blow it up and kill everyone on board.” [01:24]
• Ammon Blair: “If we continue as a nation to see these cartels as only one that smuggles narcotics, then we will only apply law enforcement tools to go after them. However, they have far surpassed that...” [17:56]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:17 – Sullum on the summary execution aspect and due process concerns.
• 06:15 – Drug trafficking routes and efficacy of interdiction.
• 09:39 – Trump’s Duterte Praise and U.S. Legal Precedent.
• 11:01 – Lack of precedent for this type of military force.
• 16:18 – Blair reframes cartels as insurgent and governing forces.
• 21:57 – Explanation of Title 10 powers and FTO designation.
• 23:54 – Justification for and effect of drone strikes.
• 26:30 – Blair on intelligence confidence behind strikes.
• 29:22 – Integration of DOD and law enforcement tools.
• 31:44 – The need for congressional codification.

Conclusion

This episode presents a robust, civil argument around the escalation of U.S. force against cartels at sea. Jacob Sullum warns of unprecedented violations of legal and moral norms, doubts the effectiveness of the policy, and worries about its resemblance to extrajudicial killings. Ammon Blair insists the threat has outgrown law enforcement paradigms, likening the cartels to insurgent proxies in a broader gray zone conflict, and believes military action is both legally justified and strategically necessary.

The discussion is steeped in the language of law, history, and public policy, offering listeners a comprehensive look at one of America’s most contentious new security approaches.