Galaxy Brains Podcast Summary

Episode: Nakamoto’s Next Phase with David Bailey
Date: March 19, 2026
Host: Alex Thorn (Head of Research, Galaxy)
Guest: David Bailey (CEO, Nakamoto; Founder, Bitcoin Magazine, Bitcoin Conference, UTXO Management)

Episode Overview

This week’s Galaxy Brains episode centers on two themes: navigating the evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape impacting cryptocurrencies, and a deep dive with David Bailey into the post-merger evolution of Nakamoto. The episode covers the ongoing challenges and opportunities for Bitcoin in 2026, the U.S. administration’s Bitcoin policy, the integration of operating businesses with treasury companies, and a preview of the upcoming Bitcoin Conference.

1. Macroeconomic & Crypto Market Context

With Bimnet Abibi, Galaxy Trading
[02:02 – 18:44]

Federal Reserve and Global Rates

The episode begins with an update on the Fed's status: Chair Powell is nearing the end of his term, with Kevin Warsh nominated but unconfirmed ([02:03–02:33]).
No significant rate changes expected at the current FOMC meeting; focus is on the summary of economic projections ([02:36–03:01]).
Global landscape: Central banks worldwide are pricing in significant interest rate hikes—ECB (50bps), Australia, New Zealand ([03:43–04:36]).
Commodity prices, especially oil and natural gas, are key inflation drivers. “Central bankers genuinely have to worry about inflation again and their only policy response mechanism is hiking rates.” – Bimnet ([04:46]).

Supply Chain Risks & Geopolitics

Market complacency exists despite supply chain experts expressing heightened concerns due to geopolitical risks (e.g., Hormuz closure, attacks on infrastructure in Iran and GCC) ([06:10–08:47]).
Supply disruption especially impacts countries with low reserves (e.g., Australia with 15 days of jet fuel, Egypt, Pakistan) ([09:32–10:06]).

Notable Quotes:

“Experts on the supply chain… are very concerned. On a scale of 1 to 10, I would say probably well north of 8.” – Bimnet ([06:37])
“Every day that it does not resolve, it gets much more dire and urgent.” – Bimnet ([10:45])

Bitcoin’s Market Behavior Amid Turmoil

Bitcoin is trading very well through uncertainty, briefly over $76k recently ([11:39–12:15]).
Market positioning: Seller exhaustion present, not much downside, not a crowded trade.
“When things can't go lower, like they have to go higher almost by definition.” – Bimnet ([12:39])
Shift in market hedges as precious metals underperform and risk assets remain jittery. Bitcoin becoming the go-to alternative asset ([13:55–14:08]).
MicroStrategy’s preferred securities structure is highlighted—MSTR just executed its second-largest weekly Bitcoin buy, mainly funded through this new vehicle ([14:32–15:02]).
Long-term bull case for Bitcoin at these levels ("If you're a long term bullish... it's just noise." – Bimnet [16:18]).

The Maturation of Market Infrastructure

24/7 trading for risk assets is becoming inevitable; Bitcoin's “barometer” status for 24/7 risk is diminishing as other assets become tradable constantly ([17:10–18:18]).
“That's what smart businesses are doing. You've got to lean in [to AI]. You can't obstruct.” – Alex ([43:43])

2. U.S. Bitcoin Policy and Political Landscape

With David Bailey, CEO of Nakamoto
[18:46 – 34:39]

Assessment of Trump Administration Bitcoin Policy

Bailey lauds the administration for dramatic regulatory turnaround:
- SEC has executed an “unbelievable” pivot to crypto-friendliness.
- Financial institutions now have guardrails for participation, including forced access (“banks being told they can’t debank us”) and Master Fed accounts for crypto firms.
- Enhanced environment for IPOs; prior administrations had largely frozen progress ([22:08–24:27]).
- The “taboo” is gone for governments using Bitcoin.
“You got to give them an A plus... Beyond just the executive orders, the pardons, the ending of the politicization of the SEC…” – David ([20:58])
Challenges remain: price sensitivity lessens political clout, ongoing resistance from Democrats, industry’s internal divergence of priorities ([25:14–26:41]).
Key need: Political capital to surmount bureaucracy and lingering resistance.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR): Frustrations and Realities

Existence of the SBR is a major step but execution lags—budget-neutral acquisition mechanisms are developed, but data on holdings remains opaque ([29:43–30:40]).
Inter-agency misaligned incentives and poor fiduciary responsibility for custody (“The son of the CEO stole the money” – David [31:26]), major operational hurdles.
Big public sector goals are slowed by downstream career staff, not just leaders. Bureaucratic inertia persists.

Notable Quote:

“Accomplishing big things within the bureaucracy … doesn’t just require leadership buy-in, it requires downstream buy-in… and that’s going to take time.” – David ([32:54])
“Legality is not a real thing… legality is in the eye of the beholder. How much political capital do you want to spend?” – David ([33:54])

3. Nakamoto’s Next Phase: Merging Operating Businesses with Treasury Companies

[34:39 – 56:11]

The Merger: New Structure and Rationale

Nakamoto recently brought Bitcoin Inc. (Bitcoin Magazine, Bitcoin Conference) and UTXO Management under one roof ([34:55–35:49]).
First Bitcoin-native treasury company to integrate operating businesses—creating a vertically coordinated, synergistic ecosystem ([35:44]).

Why Integrate?

Saylor’s MicroStrategy model inspired the sector, but most treasury companies will need revenue-generating operating businesses to survive/compete.
“Once you have operating income, that gives you a lot of optionality of what to do with your balance sheet.” – David ([38:48])
Data as a moat: By merging, Nakamoto aims to become the definitive proprietor of Bitcoin user and market data, leveraging IRL events and conference datasets ([41:50–44:35]).
AI is central; proprietary data enables context-driven AI agents—“If your moat is the context that you have… that's what's gonna make your AI agent spit out the best results.” – David ([44:16])

Synergies and Competitive Moats

Focus on capturing, integrating, and monetizing proprietary data (e.g., event attendees, comms history).
M&A to acquire further unique datasets and licenses to create a compounding flywheel effect ([46:01]).
“My job is kind of be a chaos agent of, like, creating optionality, you know, and creating these asymmetric convex outcomes.” – David ([47:56])

Challenges of the Treasury Company Trend

Post-Saylor explosion of treasury company launches; most will find adding/merging with actual businesses much harder than anticipated ([48:12–50:30]).
“There is a lot of distance between there and it being an actual done deal, closed, you know, wrapped. And so we’ll see which teams have the ability to execute.” – David ([49:15])
Legal, execution, and talent hurdles are significant; consolidation likely.

Innovations in Capital Markets and Funding

Access to public markets unlocks new growth ops for UTXO and others.
Merit in preferred and convert structures pioneered by Saylor, but the “design universe” for such instruments is wide open ([52:17–54:21]).
“Saylor’s trying to encourage people… Go and sprint ahead and design as many things as possible… It can’t just be Saylor being creative.” – David ([55:41])

4. Preview: Bitcoin Conference 2026 (Las Vegas)

[56:11 – End]

Conference Vibes

Not as “boisterous” as the prior year, but the event remains the global anchor for Bitcoiners, regardless of price or market cycle.
“AI and Bitcoin” is the predominant emerging narrative:
- Open-source agents changing the game, increasing relevance of Bitcoin for machine-to-machine payments ([57:59–58:43]).
- AI empirically prefers Bitcoin for saving, stablecoins for spending—but the politics of fiat payments will push agents to Bitcoin for peer-to-peer transactions ([59:48–60:21]).

Notable Quotes:

“Once the AI can start colluding… the obvious game theory play is for AI to… only use Bitcoin… If the AI has the majority of the Bitcoin, it’s like they’re the biggest shareholders in the economy.” – David ([60:21])
“I want Nakamoto to be the world's most globally recognizable Bitcoin company.” – David ([61:11])
Launching ‘Deal Day’, an “investment banking conference for Bitcoin,” to bridge the gap between crypto-native companies and traditional finance underwriters and investors ([61:54]).

Market Sentiment & Structural Shifts

Institutional sentiment is strong, but retail remains relatively bearish. David suggests institutions ultimately follow retail flows ([65:11]).
Current cycle notable for muted blow-off top; derivative/liquidity effects mean shallower peaks and drawdowns.
“Sentiment is rough… and sentiment will come back… when the price of bitcoin comes back.” – David ([68:51])

Key Timestamps Reference

[02:02] – Macro & Fed update; market risk overview (Bimnet)
[11:39] – Bitcoin market behavior during supply shocks and conflicts
[14:08] – MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin buys & funding structures
[18:46] – Introduction to David Bailey; start of Bitcoin policy/politics discussion
[20:58] – “You got to give them an A plus…” (David on Trump Admin)
[29:09] – Strategic Bitcoin Reserve challenges and misaligned incentives
[34:39] – Discussion of Nakamoto’s merger and operating business thesis
[44:16] – AI, proprietary data, and building moats
[49:15] – Difficulty of successful treasury company M&A
[56:11] – 2026 Conference preview: AI x Bitcoin narrative; ‘Deal Day’
[65:11] – Retail vs. institutional sentiment, new dynamics of BTC markets

Memorable Quotes

“Accomplishing big things within the bureaucracy… doesn’t just require leadership buy-in, it requires downstream buy-in…” – David Bailey ([32:54])
“There is a lot of distance between [deal intent] and it being an actual done deal, closed… not as easy as it looks.” – David ([49:15])
“If your moat is the context that you have that no one else has… that’s what’s gonna make your AI agent spit out the best results.” – David ([44:16])
“Sentiment is rough and sentiment’s going to stay rough… until the price of bitcoin comes back.” – David ([68:51])
“When things can't go lower, they have to go higher almost by definition.” – Bimnet ([12:39])

Summary Takeaway

This episode provides a robust outlook on the macro and political realities facing Bitcoin and crypto in 2026. David Bailey’s insights illuminate the challenges and promise of building a next-gen treasury company that pairs a hard asset treasury with real operating businesses—pointing the way for the sector beyond mere bitcoin balance sheet plays. The continued confluence of AI and Bitcoin shapes both the conference and the future strategic direction. Amidst rough sentiment, the enduring cycle of innovation and integration in crypto businesses signals that, for those building on-chain, the best is yet to come.

Galaxy Brains Podcast Summary

Episode Overview

1. Macroeconomic & Crypto Market Context

With Bimnet Abibi, Galaxy Trading
[02:02 – 18:44]

Federal Reserve and Global Rates

The episode begins with an update on the Fed's status: Chair Powell is nearing the end of his term, with Kevin Warsh nominated but unconfirmed ([02:03–02:33]).
No significant rate changes expected at the current FOMC meeting; focus is on the summary of economic projections ([02:36–03:01]).
Global landscape: Central banks worldwide are pricing in significant interest rate hikes—ECB (50bps), Australia, New Zealand ([03:43–04:36]).
Commodity prices, especially oil and natural gas, are key inflation drivers. “Central bankers genuinely have to worry about inflation again and their only policy response mechanism is hiking rates.” – Bimnet ([04:46]).

Supply Chain Risks & Geopolitics

Market complacency exists despite supply chain experts expressing heightened concerns due to geopolitical risks (e.g., Hormuz closure, attacks on infrastructure in Iran and GCC) ([06:10–08:47]).
Supply disruption especially impacts countries with low reserves (e.g., Australia with 15 days of jet fuel, Egypt, Pakistan) ([09:32–10:06]).

Notable Quotes:

“Experts on the supply chain… are very concerned. On a scale of 1 to 10, I would say probably well north of 8.” – Bimnet ([06:37])
“Every day that it does not resolve, it gets much more dire and urgent.” – Bimnet ([10:45])

Bitcoin’s Market Behavior Amid Turmoil

Bitcoin is trading very well through uncertainty, briefly over $76k recently ([11:39–12:15]).
Market positioning: Seller exhaustion present, not much downside, not a crowded trade.
“When things can't go lower, like they have to go higher almost by definition.” – Bimnet ([12:39])
Shift in market hedges as precious metals underperform and risk assets remain jittery. Bitcoin becoming the go-to alternative asset ([13:55–14:08]).
MicroStrategy’s preferred securities structure is highlighted—MSTR just executed its second-largest weekly Bitcoin buy, mainly funded through this new vehicle ([14:32–15:02]).
Long-term bull case for Bitcoin at these levels ("If you're a long term bullish... it's just noise." – Bimnet [16:18]).

The Maturation of Market Infrastructure

24/7 trading for risk assets is becoming inevitable; Bitcoin's “barometer” status for 24/7 risk is diminishing as other assets become tradable constantly ([17:10–18:18]).
“That's what smart businesses are doing. You've got to lean in [to AI]. You can't obstruct.” – Alex ([43:43])

2. U.S. Bitcoin Policy and Political Landscape

With David Bailey, CEO of Nakamoto
[18:46 – 34:39]

Assessment of Trump Administration Bitcoin Policy

Bailey lauds the administration for dramatic regulatory turnaround:
- SEC has executed an “unbelievable” pivot to crypto-friendliness.
- Financial institutions now have guardrails for participation, including forced access (“banks being told they can’t debank us”) and Master Fed accounts for crypto firms.
- Enhanced environment for IPOs; prior administrations had largely frozen progress ([22:08–24:27]).
- The “taboo” is gone for governments using Bitcoin.
“You got to give them an A plus... Beyond just the executive orders, the pardons, the ending of the politicization of the SEC…” – David ([20:58])
Challenges remain: price sensitivity lessens political clout, ongoing resistance from Democrats, industry’s internal divergence of priorities ([25:14–26:41]).
Key need: Political capital to surmount bureaucracy and lingering resistance.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR): Frustrations and Realities

Existence of the SBR is a major step but execution lags—budget-neutral acquisition mechanisms are developed, but data on holdings remains opaque ([29:43–30:40]).
Inter-agency misaligned incentives and poor fiduciary responsibility for custody (“The son of the CEO stole the money” – David [31:26]), major operational hurdles.
Big public sector goals are slowed by downstream career staff, not just leaders. Bureaucratic inertia persists.

Notable Quote:

“Accomplishing big things within the bureaucracy … doesn’t just require leadership buy-in, it requires downstream buy-in… and that’s going to take time.” – David ([32:54])
“Legality is not a real thing… legality is in the eye of the beholder. How much political capital do you want to spend?” – David ([33:54])

3. Nakamoto’s Next Phase: Merging Operating Businesses with Treasury Companies

[34:39 – 56:11]

The Merger: New Structure and Rationale

Nakamoto recently brought Bitcoin Inc. (Bitcoin Magazine, Bitcoin Conference) and UTXO Management under one roof ([34:55–35:49]).
First Bitcoin-native treasury company to integrate operating businesses—creating a vertically coordinated, synergistic ecosystem ([35:44]).

Why Integrate?

Saylor’s MicroStrategy model inspired the sector, but most treasury companies will need revenue-generating operating businesses to survive/compete.
“Once you have operating income, that gives you a lot of optionality of what to do with your balance sheet.” – David ([38:48])
Data as a moat: By merging, Nakamoto aims to become the definitive proprietor of Bitcoin user and market data, leveraging IRL events and conference datasets ([41:50–44:35]).
AI is central; proprietary data enables context-driven AI agents—“If your moat is the context that you have… that's what's gonna make your AI agent spit out the best results.” – David ([44:16])

Synergies and Competitive Moats

Focus on capturing, integrating, and monetizing proprietary data (e.g., event attendees, comms history).
M&A to acquire further unique datasets and licenses to create a compounding flywheel effect ([46:01]).
“My job is kind of be a chaos agent of, like, creating optionality, you know, and creating these asymmetric convex outcomes.” – David ([47:56])

Challenges of the Treasury Company Trend

Post-Saylor explosion of treasury company launches; most will find adding/merging with actual businesses much harder than anticipated ([48:12–50:30]).
“There is a lot of distance between there and it being an actual done deal, closed, you know, wrapped. And so we’ll see which teams have the ability to execute.” – David ([49:15])
Legal, execution, and talent hurdles are significant; consolidation likely.

Innovations in Capital Markets and Funding

Access to public markets unlocks new growth ops for UTXO and others.
Merit in preferred and convert structures pioneered by Saylor, but the “design universe” for such instruments is wide open ([52:17–54:21]).
“Saylor’s trying to encourage people… Go and sprint ahead and design as many things as possible… It can’t just be Saylor being creative.” – David ([55:41])

4. Preview: Bitcoin Conference 2026 (Las Vegas)

[56:11 – End]

Conference Vibes

Not as “boisterous” as the prior year, but the event remains the global anchor for Bitcoiners, regardless of price or market cycle.
“AI and Bitcoin” is the predominant emerging narrative:
- Open-source agents changing the game, increasing relevance of Bitcoin for machine-to-machine payments ([57:59–58:43]).
- AI empirically prefers Bitcoin for saving, stablecoins for spending—but the politics of fiat payments will push agents to Bitcoin for peer-to-peer transactions ([59:48–60:21]).

Notable Quotes:

“Once the AI can start colluding… the obvious game theory play is for AI to… only use Bitcoin… If the AI has the majority of the Bitcoin, it’s like they’re the biggest shareholders in the economy.” – David ([60:21])
“I want Nakamoto to be the world's most globally recognizable Bitcoin company.” – David ([61:11])
Launching ‘Deal Day’, an “investment banking conference for Bitcoin,” to bridge the gap between crypto-native companies and traditional finance underwriters and investors ([61:54]).

Market Sentiment & Structural Shifts

Institutional sentiment is strong, but retail remains relatively bearish. David suggests institutions ultimately follow retail flows ([65:11]).
Current cycle notable for muted blow-off top; derivative/liquidity effects mean shallower peaks and drawdowns.
“Sentiment is rough… and sentiment will come back… when the price of bitcoin comes back.” – David ([68:51])

Key Timestamps Reference

[02:02] – Macro & Fed update; market risk overview (Bimnet)
[11:39] – Bitcoin market behavior during supply shocks and conflicts
[14:08] – MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin buys & funding structures
[18:46] – Introduction to David Bailey; start of Bitcoin policy/politics discussion
[20:58] – “You got to give them an A plus…” (David on Trump Admin)
[29:09] – Strategic Bitcoin Reserve challenges and misaligned incentives
[34:39] – Discussion of Nakamoto’s merger and operating business thesis
[44:16] – AI, proprietary data, and building moats
[49:15] – Difficulty of successful treasury company M&A
[56:11] – 2026 Conference preview: AI x Bitcoin narrative; ‘Deal Day’
[65:11] – Retail vs. institutional sentiment, new dynamics of BTC markets

Memorable Quotes

“Accomplishing big things within the bureaucracy… doesn’t just require leadership buy-in, it requires downstream buy-in…” – David Bailey ([32:54])
“There is a lot of distance between [deal intent] and it being an actual done deal, closed… not as easy as it looks.” – David ([49:15])
“If your moat is the context that you have that no one else has… that’s what’s gonna make your AI agent spit out the best results.” – David ([44:16])
“Sentiment is rough and sentiment’s going to stay rough… until the price of bitcoin comes back.” – David ([68:51])
“When things can't go lower, they have to go higher almost by definition.” – Bimnet ([12:39])