C (2:52)

Is this a concern about privacy or is this an annoyance concern?

A (2:56)

I think there are privacy concerns, but no, it is more about clutter and annoyance. Right. Why do I have to give you my personal information to buy a widget from your store? That doesn't make any sense. Here's money. Just take the money. I mean, you know, the credit card company or the card issuers, they have my information, but why do I have to give it to you? Random person at a cashier.

C (3:16)

Well, they want to follow up with an email.

A (3:17)

I know why they want it, but I. Or like even the stuff where it's like, you know, join our rewards program at the supermarket. So you can save a dollar or $2. Right. I'm just saying, like, is that how low you think of your own identity information? You'll sell it for a mere $2.

C (3:34)

So you're.

A (3:35)

There is a privacy aspect. You're gonna stop.

C (3:37)

Yeah, I figured it was gonna be privacy. Especially people in this community, they like to be anonymous as best as possible possible. You're very much not anonymous.

A (3:44)

Well, I've got a very public Persona, but like I take great steps to stay private and as I encourage everyone to do. No, and I don't think people really, you know, Google and read about like the data brokers. Right. There's an entire. I mean I think people, a lot of our audience is very intelligent, sophisticated, will know about this. But there are huge corporations that maintain thousands of data points of information on millions of Americans and people. And if you download an app like, look at the Apple does a really good job of this in the app Store. Right? No, I don't want your app, by the way. I don't want your app. In fact, I've got hundreds of apps I'd like to delete from my phone, right? I want fewer apps. But if you look at the privacy, when you go to the App Store for each app, Apple will tell you exactly what information the app is taking. Almost all of them at a minimum, even if it looks like it's not a lot. They want your identifiers, and that means typically, your device id, which is a unique number affiliated with your phone. But even if you only give them that, they could. They can go take that to the data broker and say, oh, do you know anything about this device? And they'll say, oh, yeah, it's this person. Here's 5,000 data points on them. Like what they like to buy, how they vote, how much money they make, how much money they spend, what do they spend it on? Right? Like, all their, you know, demographic information, how old are they, like, where were they born, what race are they, what gender are they, et cetera. Like, so, like, the world is gathering information on you at all times. And so that's why, you know, the. The poor, you know, cashier at a store doesn't like. It's not them asking, right? But, like, I just say, no. Hey, you go to buy something, you know, is that like Men's Warehouse? And you like a tie or something? They're like, what's your phone number? I'm like, no. They're like, what do you mean, no? I'm like, I mean, I'm not giving you my phone number. I needed this tie. Like, I'm giving you money. How's that?

C (5:27)

Everybody reach out to Alex on Twitter and tell. Tell them, Tell him whether you feel like this is more of a privacy issue or just a bother.

A (5:36)

It definitely is a bother, but you should think of it as a privacy issue, too. No, I don't want your app. No, I'm not opening an account. No, I don't want to sign up. No, I'm not giving you my email. All right, let's get right into it with Bimnet Ab. Let's go now to our friend Bimnet Abibi from Galaxy Trading. As always, Bimnet, welcome to Galaxy Brains.

B (5:55)

Thank you for having me.

A (5:56)

Well, you look like a Galaxy Brain in particular these days because you have been calling for a lower Bitcoin price, at least since mid October. But we're finally working on that clip show to put out to show. Exactly. But listeners will know for sure that you've been saying for a while that bitcoin could go a lot lower. You expect that it will most likely yeah, and you at least, I think for about at least two months. We did a whole episode with you previously in November, I think was November 22, 2026, 2025. November 22, I should say, where you explicitly said like the 200 week moving average was your target. And we're not there yet. It's around 60, we'll say right now. But I mean you were saying that when it was over 100, still around 100, like we're more than 25% lower than that now. Is there more juice to squeeze?

B (6:50)

Absolutely. Essentially what's happened is the market structure has broken down, so liquidity has kind of evaporated, sentiment has gone lower and there are no positive catalysts. And then I think the next leg down ultimately is probably going to be driven by broader risk. I think equities have started to show signs that they are cracking. And I think the NASDAQ's already been off like basically 4% in the last two sessions. I think there's probably an additional 5 to 10%. And even within, if you look kind of deeper outside of the index, there is a ton of carnage in equities, particularly in software. Software has taken a huge beating over the last couple of weeks and I think this is a market that has struggled to sustain new highs. Essentially, if you go back to the start of the week, you're looking at the S and P chart and you're like, we're at the same levels we were in October and yet AI has advanced tremendously in that time. I genuinely think that when people feel like stocks can't go that much higher, you lose that marginal buyer. I also think that the de dollarization narrative is playing a reasonable role in that as well. From the standpoint that I think the marginal dollar abroad is less inclined to go into equities. If you look at the data, retail in the US has been a huge buyer, but it's showing signs of slowing down. And so you've got two large incremental buyers that are probably stepping away from the market and the fundamentals seem to have turned. I think the concerns around OpenAI and the whole complex are at the forefront for a lot of investors.

A (9:01)

Can you talk about those concerns?

B (9:03)

Yeah, basically.

A (9:03)

What are those concerns?

B (9:04)

OpenAI has made a tremendous amount of commitments to a bunch of companies in terms of how much data centers they're going to use, chips that they're going to buy, et cetera. And they're essentially funding themselves by continuing to do up rounds and not funding themselves via profits that they make because

A (9:23)

and then people are looking at like various models of their expected profits and

B (9:27)

they're concerned and it caused, I mean, you know, I think, you know, Microsoft was down over like 11% after earnings partly because a lot of their future revenues are attributable to OpenAI or at

A (9:43)

least that's what their partnership with OpenAI. Correct. And then also talk about software and I think people will get. Why is software under pressure right now?

B (9:52)

Because investors are panicked. They are panicked by the fact that Claude and these other models can essentially do the tasks of software. When you see that and when you see software companies trading at 20 30x multiples, you're like, no, that doesn't make any sense. In fact, their moat is under attack. So why am I putting an insane growth and valuation multiple on these companies when the tech underneath them is fundamentally changing? And there's so many other implications. I mean think about the amount of private equity exposure to software companies, right? And their comps are in public markets and you know, if they're nascent technologies like maybe cloud could just do what

A (10:42)

they were trying to do, revalued, then even the privates get affected.

B (10:47)

Correct.

A (10:48)

Is it, is it that like I can just ask ChatGPT to like make the PDF for me rather than using Acrobat, or is it also that I can vibe code a new competitor to Acrobat? Both, yeah, both.

B (11:02)

I mean just simplifying tasks, organizing database structure. I mean there's so many different things that AI is good for. And so it's causing a fundamental rethink of where software companies should be valued.

A (11:19)

And a lot of those companies in the top, a lot of the world's biggest companies are fundamentally software companies. I mean Microsoft's a great example. Google as well, although a little different with their sort of web based and ad revenue more than subscription model. So they're, I mean that's a huge segment of the technology sector is software as a service.

B (11:39)

And really like what's driven returns over the last decade? It's been tech, it's been US tech. And so, you know, I think folks are panicked and that just leads to a market where there is no substantive marginal buyer and markets move at the margin. And so I think there's a lot of folks that are very scared and then you've got geopolitical risks and the mess in D.C. however you want to think about that, that's certainly not helping at the moment. And so this is a pretty bad setup for risk. And who's going to want to buy crypto when they're worried about the Nasdaq and some of these huge blue chip names that are expected to make tens of billions in revenue. This is a tough market to belong stuff that is further out the risk curve.

A (12:32)

Yeah. This is why you also mentioned in the beginning of this explanation that the de dollarization part of it. What are you selling into? What do you want to hold?

B (12:47)

I think right now you just want to be long cash for like dollars.

A (12:51)

But the world is also trying to be net long, at least slightly less cash.

B (12:55)

Again, it's hard.

A (12:57)

I mean dollar is still better than other fiat currencies. Right.

B (13:01)

It's still the best house on a shitty block. And the only other alternative is gold. But again, there was a day last week where Silver moved down 35%. A $5 trillion asset that is globally traded moved down 35%. I think that's so like just take a little side pivot. Like we wiped out about like $10 trillion between the moves in gold and silver.

A (13:23)

Bitcoin lost like 2 or 3 of bitcoin's entire market cap in a day

B (13:27)

or now the price is lower, right?

A (13:30)

Yeah.

B (13:31)

And just to give you an idea, I think the S and P is like, you know, off top of my head, maybe like a $65 trillion asset. And so to wipe away $10 trillion in this other corner of the world, financial world, that's a big deal. There's a wealth effect to that as well. But anyway. Yeah. What do you keep your money in right now I think the goal is to be defensive. Right. Try to put your stuff in safe short end fixed income that you get a little bit of yield in. But I think this equity correction has room to run particularly because the money printer is far away.

A (14:06)

Yeah. And I know we're not experts on Kevin Warsh who's the. I guess I don't know if he's been formally submitted by the White House to Congress to be nominated to be the next veteran, but he's been named to be and you saw the dollar rally a bit after his. Because he's seen not as actually a money printing bonanza guy.

B (14:27)

Yeah, he's a very credible. He's credible, you know, member of.

A (14:31)

He's thought it appears by markets to be a pretty credible choice actually for a prudent Fed.

B (14:35)

Correct.

A (14:36)

Probably still, you know, cuts a little bit in the near term, we think.

B (14:39)

Right. Maybe. But again I think. But again prudent member is data dependent.

A (14:44)

Yeah. It's not an obvious but to be honest, money printing bonanza, man.

B (14:48)

I think you know we're headed to cuts for other reasons that aren't because the administration wants them. Labor, labor market is, it is showing like, it has been showing signs of cracking but like ADP today came out at like 25,000. The employment section of ISM services was a bit soft and ISM manufacturing has been like you know, in contraction territory for like a really long period of time. And then when you dig a little bit deeper in terms of like where there's job growth, right. It's in like healthcare and not in like professional services as much. And if you look at recent college graduates, a lot of them are not employed in areas where they actually got their degrees. And there's a huge degree of underemployment

A (15:36)

for the youth, it's not for the

B (15:37)

youth, it's not good.

A (15:39)

Is the youth unemployment as a baseline number also high?

B (15:43)

Correct. It is north of 10%.

A (15:45)

And you're saying they're not getting the jobs they thought they would get, so they're possibly underemployed as well.

B (15:51)

Correct. And so there are material signs that labor market's cracking and then sentiment on top of that. If you look at the consumer confidence numbers, they're bad, objectively bad. And so sentiment's bad, employment's turning a little bit and inflation is still reasonably above the Fed's target. But it's a two sided mandate. And we know and we think not. We know, but we are reasonably confident that the labor market probably weighs more on their decision making process at this point in the cycle. I think the market probability of cuts is probably a little underpriced at the moment. Making the case for being long front end US fixed income as a place to park capital for the time being actually pretty reasonable because you might get that kicker of rates are actually going lower.

A (16:45)

Yeah, interesting. And also just to boo your point, the way I think about the dual mandate is the Fed would like to make inflation its only sole mandate. They'd like to theoretically. But the people losing jobs is something that will be down their door. Right. Like they might want to keep it high to get back down to their mostly made up target of target, 2% inflation. But if Americans are losing their jobs en masse, they're going to be forced politically to act this the same way they would be to tighten if inflation was 10%. They would absolutely have to raise rates. Right. No matter what employment said. It's like when you're down at the 3 area, it's low enough that the labor would overwhelm probably any.

B (17:29)

But it's Also like in theory, if labor market is actually cracking in terms of what that means for inflation on a forward basis, it probably means it

A (17:38)

would help inflation go down as well. Correct. Do you see, you know, we talk about software as a service in particular or even just subscription based software tools. Literally like Microsoft Office is one of them. Right. Being affected by AI. Like are we seeing signs yet that the labor market is affected by AI? A lot of people obviously have talked about a future where like a universal basic income might even be needed. If we have AI powered robots doing all the jobs, what's going to be left for you? Are we seeing any of that yet that you know of in the labor market?

B (18:12)

It's been slow, so not quite yet. Not quite yet. But you know, Amazon has had huge layoffs. I mean I think Washington Post today laid off like 600 people. I don't know if that's AI improvements, but you're seeing like massive corporate efforts to get better on AI.

A (18:29)

Yeah.

B (18:30)

And you know, the market is.

A (18:32)

Are they sniffing though that at some point in the future there will also be more AI driven layoffs?

B (18:39)

I don't think.

A (18:40)

Or is it not top of mind yet?

B (18:41)

It's not quite top of mind, but

A (18:42)

most people do think that at some point that's coming.

B (18:44)

That's 100% coming.

A (18:46)

Yeah.

B (18:47)

But it might lead to like lower wages first because like you don't need that much specialized knowledge as much anymore.

A (18:53)

It's true. Like we don't quite have.

B (18:55)

I'm pretty sure I'm stupider than the AI models. But anyway. Yeah, but you know, not to be like so doom and gloom. I do think that the market. I view this as more as an opportunity for those folks that can kind of go both ways in markets if you're long only. Obviously this is a hard environment.

A (19:17)

Yeah.

B (19:18)

But it's definitely like, you know, if you've had a really good run, like please take some chips off the table.

A (19:24)

Yeah.

B (19:25)

And if you're tactical like you can play for downside in certain things. I think just one last note on crypto, given how far we've moved so quickly and the lack of liquidity in the market, the swings in both directions are going to be violent. But the thesis still holds that you will test 60 at some point. I think 70 is a good first stopping point for, for a period of consolidation.

A (19:55)

You still think the price will try to converge on that long term. 200 week moving average.

B (20:01)

Correct.

A (20:01)

Yeah, that's still.

B (20:02)

And it might be in a couple months. It might be in like a couple weeks at this rate. But I do think that pretty much every cycle, every cycle in bitcoin has had a move to the 200 week moving average. And I don't think this instance is any different.

A (20:18)

What is different is that the 200 week moving average in like you know, 2013 is, 2014 is, and 15 was like $100 something and now it's 60k. I mean think about it, it feels, I know it, it's, you know 60k would be a 50% plus drawdown. That would still be less magnitude than the prior drawdowns which were all like 70% plus from all time high during prior cycles. And just, you know, we joked when it was crashing to 100k that that's like a funny thing to say after all these years in bitcoin. Oh no, bitcoin crashes to 100k. Well, honestly, oh no, bitcoin crashes to 60. Doesn't actually feel that bad. That's so much higher than we previously crashed. Obviously if you bought 120 as your only position, you don't like the feeling of that. But I think is that what it would take for you to flip bullish? I mean when you say target.

B (21:04)

Yeah, I think once you're around there,

A (21:06)

I think you like the entry there.

B (21:08)

I like the entry and I will say that there is risk, you go a little bit lower. And so I think the game plan is to start averaging in around there because realistically what's going to happen and what will take bitcoin higher again is there's a lot of folks that believe in the asset but that also believe in the four year cycle. And so the people that took profits will be recycling their money back into bitcoin once it gets to a value area. And that value area historically has been around the 200 week moving average. And the way I put it is it's going to be really easy to pitch somebody bitcoin at 60k because you'll be like oh it was at 120k six months ago.

A (21:53)

You know it can go there. You know it's proven it can go there.

B (21:55)

It's proven that it can go there.

A (21:57)

Yeah.

B (21:57)

And you know, realistically if it's down there, you know you're going to be talking what point in the Fed easing cycle are we? Yeah, is the money printer turning on soon? Like there's so many other things but it's just like it becomes a much better risk reward trade from the standpoint of like what are you really risking at 60k? Maybe it goes to 50 45. Right. Like so you're risking you know, 10 to 15k so called 20ish percent of your position to have a potential double. Right. That's a you know, five to one risk reward ratio.

A (22:28)

It's not bad.

C (22:29)

Yeah.

B (22:29)

So, so I, you know that's kind of my, you know, reason why I think that area will kind of hold.

A (22:36)

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. And, and do you think that that's what other people are thinking? Do you think is it the type of thing where like it doesn't feel that here's the thing too because we've gone to the 200 week in these prior ones. It doesn't feel yet that, but it might when we get there that there is a mad rush to go buy that dip. Actually most of these prior bear market bottoms we really grinded low for a while around the average.

B (23:03)

Yeah. And that's probably what's going to happen again. I mean you're going to have like a consolidation.

A (23:07)

Well and that's why you are a more you've got long term views but you're also professionally and personally tactical. You gotta wait and also see what the other things are. The 200 week might look like a good buy but if we're, you know, also everything else is crashing. If we're in a. Then maybe it does go lower. Yeah. And so you got to evaluate at that moment. It does make me think too that actually let's go to this question about the debasement trade because one of the things that I think has been so disappointing is in the last call it six months really fewer like four or five, four months now maybe has been watching the divergence between physical gold and digital gold and bitcoin's empirical failure to trade recently as a hedge. Now there's caveats. Of course it was up even at 72k. It's up 4, 4 and a half x or 4x from its, you know, FTX bottom. And that's still more than gold ultimately was up in percentage term. But that's kind of nitpicking. It is I think fair to complain that bitcoin has not performed like gold. Right when gold was needed most or whatever. Right. In its mind. Do you think there's a chance that the world starts to treat it like gold? Maybe if we can get those better value entries because it has fundamental reasons.

B (24:21)

The fundamentals are always there. I think they're bigger societal things like wealth is and transferability and you know like you tried like taking you know a couple million bucks of Gold on a plane or silver.

C (24:35)

Yeah.

B (24:35)

Yeah. It is incredibly painful.

C (24:38)

Yeah.

A (24:38)

And I can tell you. But I can buy the TSA if you try that.

B (24:42)

But I can move a billion dollars of worth of bitcoin in my head.

C (24:46)

Yeah.

A (24:46)

Very easily. Yeah.

B (24:47)

Right. And so I, you know, I think ultimately that value proposition will be clear to the market one day. One day. And to be honest with you, in such a momentum driven market, the moment price starts rallying and people are like, oh, it went from, you know, 60 to 70 in like a week. Oh, my God, it's going back up again, people. FOMO back in.

A (25:09)

Yeah.

B (25:09)

And especially those that it sold.

A (25:11)

All these lack of. Even as you pointed out the lack of clear catalysts in the near term, all of a sudden people will come up with a bunch of good reasons to own. It is true that, like, it's so easy to be negative on it while it's down.

B (25:22)

Mine is going down.

A (25:23)

As soon as it starts to go higher, everyone will come out of the woodwork and be like, I always loved bitcoin. And.

C (25:27)

Right.

B (25:28)

And you know, the, the main idea is like, it's reflexive. Right, right. This market is reflexive both to the downside and to the upside. And so once that reflexive cycle to the upside begins, it will go a lot higher.

A (25:41)

Yep. And you get more liquidity coming in and everything. Well, I just want to say, you know, I was upset. I'm upset with our audience. Okay. Because when you enunciated this near term bearish thesis. Well, you've been saying it, but at least initially, Certainly after the November 22nd episode we did with just you.

B (25:58)

Yeah. I mean, I was bearish in October,

A (26:00)

probably September, and we've got receipts to show that. But also, at least on that episode, I think it was. I behooved our audience. I would do our part to make BIM Net wrong. And I don't know, maybe our audience doesn't have. Didn't have enough cash. I didn't have enough cash to turn this thing around. I've been buying, to be clear, Bitcoin. I always have been buying, buying.

B (26:20)

Yeah.

A (26:21)

But again, unfortunately, Bimnet has been right, so. But I would say those key levels. I did put out a report this week. Yeah. Which was making a lot of the same arguments now that you've been making to me and. Because it's just.

B (26:35)

You've been right since you put it out.

A (26:36)

Well, yes. Even just in a few days. Yes. I mean, but still, I think, I think there's, you know, there's a lot of evidence for what you're saying. And I think you can be long term bullish and love bitcoin, but still want to, you know, be tactical with how you think about it. And like to, to be clear, like, I always want to buy bitcoin. I think it's going a lot higher.

B (26:56)

I like completely.

A (26:57)

Yeah, absolutely. So I like a cheaper setup.

B (26:59)

I mean, I genuinely think that the bottom of this cycle is a generational buy or sorry, four year cycle buy if they. Well, yeah, make sure to sell.

A (27:08)

Funny. You know, I've been saying over the last couple of years that I think it's degraded if not dead entirely and I guess it is kind of the four year cycle if we look at 22 to 26. But actually it had been green, green, green, red, green, green, green. Like the cycle was materially altered because of the all time high before the having. Technically this year is supposed to be a green year in the four year cycle, not a red year. But it's, it's undoubtedly empirically proven to at least be cyclical still. Yeah, it's not no cycle. So. But yeah, I relish the opportunity to buy it cheaper. So, you know, I don't find it depressing, I guess, is what I'm saying. Although, you know, I would say it's not euphoric. Yeah, it was nearly, you know, two months ago, is at 100 over our shoulder now. I mean, we're over 25% below 100 now. You're materially below 100. We were at 98K three weeks ago. Yeah. So. All right, we'll leave it there. My friend, Bimnet Abibi from Galaxy Trading. My friend, thank you so much.

B (28:11)

Thanks for having me.

A (28:12)

That's it for this week's episode of Galaxy Brains. Thank you to our friend and guest, Bimnet AB from Galaxy Trading. Everyone have a safe and happy weekend. We will see you next week. Foreign. Thank you for listening to Galaxy Brains, the weekly podcast from Galaxy Research. I'm Alex Thorne, head of Firmwide research at Galaxy. Follow me on X@Intangiblecoins. Follow Galaxy Research on X@GLXYResearch. Read our written reports@galaxy.com research and don't forget, if you like Galaxy Brains to like and subscribe on your favorite podcast platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts and more. We'll see you next time.