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Welcome to Galaxy Brains. An infinite amount of cash. Cash. I'm your host, Alex Thorne. The US banking system is sound and resilient. Bitcoin made a new all time high. If you're not long. If you're not long, you're short. Satoshi is going to come on there, laugh hysterically, go quiet. All bitcoin's gonna be erased. Bitcoin. Bitcoin's the best crypto. Bitcoin is going to zero. Welcome back to Galaxy Brains. As always, I'm your host Alex Thorne, head of Firm Wide Research at Galaxy Bitcoin. Not zero. And we have a great episode for you this week. You're stuck with me. This is Alex Thorne's 2026 July State of crypto. No guests. Bimnet is off this week and we will be off next week during the fourth of July week. But this week I'm going to talk to you about some questions here. Has bitcoin bottomed? Let's talk about microstrategy and their big shift on Monday. Talk about agents and trading. Is that a real thing? Tokenized securities, the Clarity act and much more. Before we get to that, I need to remind you to please refer to the link to the disclaimer in the show notes. And note that none of the information in this show constitutes investment advice or an offer recommendation or solicitation by Galaxy or any of its affiliates to buy or sell any securities. We're here. We're in the summer doldrums. That's what I call called it with Bimnet last week. And it's true in all markets. You're still ping ponging on Iran headlines. Some of the economic data came in this week. Consumer confidence lower than expected employment, you know, looking okay. Fed now, markets now, pricing, Fed rate hikes, which is probably a headwind for bitcoin. But in general, this is the hotware and also the US east coast facing apparently a historic heat wave. It is quite hot here in New York, but our office is nice and cool with air conditioning. That's why I've got the hoodie on. And you know, like markets feel that way too, right? It feels squishy and soft and rudderless, I would say. And that's definitely true in bitcoin markets. You know, bitcoin today green back up over 60. But I think earlier today wicked as low as like the high 57s 58k gang people don't remember was, you know, effectively the peak in 21. We ranged there a long time in 24 after the ETFs launched in between all time highs. The pre having all time high and then the later all time high following the November 2024 presidential election. But 58k was like this big joke in bitcoin and they call themselves the 58k gang right now they're defending 58 basically. And it's we look pretty anemic here on bitcoin price and everyone has been asking two big things in the bitcoin world. One, have we bottomed? And if not where is the bottom and to what to do with strategy? I'm going to talk about strategy in a few minutes but I put out a report a couple of weeks ago called Bitcoin may not yet have bottomed. Here's where the data says it could. And the point of the report was primarily that you know, whether you understand it or not and frankly I don't the four year cycle is real almost to the day from cycle low to having to all time high. 17, 21, 24. I don't know if we call 245 or 6 this cycle almost to the day. Exact timing now I don't know what that means and it, it's confounding in some ways but the timing has been uncanny and almost identical. But the amplitude has not. The amplitude of this cycle has been compressed from both ends. You know the, the top 125ish K was not really a blow off top at all. We kind of grinded higher up to it and it was substantially lower in, in relative terms than prior all time highs. Other metrics like MVRV didn't get close to their all time highs. You know, it was in the low twos and you know really need to be like 2.9 to 5 on that metric to be comparable to prior cycles. And again the low, you know we're you know, 60k is about minus 51, minus 52% down from all time high. Nowhere close to the prior -75 to 85% bottoms. You know and if we did have that a minus 75 to minus 85 that would put us in 20k territory and I, I frankly am calling it now. We will not see that. I'm retiring that as a possibility. That report though, if we use comparable MVRV and other metrics to prior cycles suggest a base case bottom of the mid-40s. A shallower one would put us in the low to mid-50s and some kind of extreme washout event could be in the high 30s. I have, this is again what the data suggests. If we compare bottom signals from prior cycles and apply them to the price today. And in this drawdown, I find it hard to believe that we would go below 50 personally. And for all we know, look, I mean we're, it looks a bit tenuous. You know, we got 60,200 over my shoulder here in bitcoin on the block clock. 58K gang is out here defending 58. You know, I don't know that they can, but we've now tapped it a bunch of times. And frankly over the last week we've basically been at it. But with no substantial capability to send bitcoin below it at the moment, doesn't mean it can't happen. And you know, by the way on that timing, right, the data's pretty clear. I mean again, I don't know why, I don't know why they line up so well in timing and they do, that would suggest a Q4 2026 of this year bottom date if it just all else equal, you know, if, if played out the same way, there is a hiccup, right? I mean we did get an all time high before the having, which is irregular in I think in February 2024, you know, following the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs. Nonetheless, then we sort of fizzled out in some of the euphoria metrics, but yet of course grinded higher into and after the President's reelection and then following the inauguration, all of 25, you know, sort of culminating with October. Well, the all time high was October 6, 2025, but sort of then the October 10th like liquidity crisis meltdown maybe as the straw that broke the camel's back. Interestingly though, a lot of the topping euphoria metrics had already topped long before that. October 6, 2025, all time high. So one of the consequences of a compressed top is that realized price, the network sort of average cost basis was a lot higher and closer to the top. And that kind of sets a higher floor for the bottom. And I will say that that's reflexive. You know, if price goes lower, realized, realized price will also drift lower. But again, like this is the compressing amplitude magnitude of the cycle high and cycle low seems to be a feature of this current cycle. And that also plays into why I think you're gonna see a higher bottom in relative terms than prior bitcoin cycles. Anyway, go check out that report. There's a lot in there, a lot of charts, like 25 charts. And we've shown some of them on the screen. If you're watching on YouTube but yes, it feels anemic. I mean, we're on, I think we're like almost minus 6 billion in net outflows from the ETF complex this year. Something like the longest 30 day streak, 30 day average net outflow from IBIT, the largest, very deep outflows. It feels like out here. From my experience, I've been in Bitcoin for more than 10 years and watching it and it feels like we are at or near a bottom. To me, the sentiment, if we look at the bottom indicators, which we'll put here on the screen too, only four of the 13 that typically would mark a bottom have been hit. That's part of the reason why I have some conviction that we haven't quite seen the bottom yet. And we'll talk about some catalysts that could create the bottom or send us higher as we go forward. But that's my view of the price action here. The data suggests mid-40s. From my report, my gut tells me low to mid-50s would be the bottom. But you know, if that cycle timing is correct, like we're still looking at a few more months and it's the summer months, you know, that wholesale in May and go away adage may have proved true for Bitcoin. And yet again, by the way, stocks also kind of floundering. Everything's sort of feeling a bit rudderless right now. I don't know if it's the heat, you know, they say it's a historic heat wave. My recollection, guys, is that summer typically is hot. And growing up, you know, I never thought, oh my God, it's historic. But I don't want to. I'm not trying to be a climate change denier or anything like that, but you know, it's hot, people are tired, markets are rudderless, and that's the state we find ourselves in. I, I hope you don't feel rudderless listening to this at home, my friends. Let's talk about one of the biggest stories in markets and certainly in the Bitcoin market. MicroStrategy, or Strategy Inc. As of course they are now called. So you know, everyone is really up in arms about what Michael Saylor and his team at Strategy would do about their preferred securities trading at this discount to their target $100 par. And I think stretch strc, the biggest one, at one point traded as low as the low 70s. It's, it's now recovered a bit since Monday of this week when Strategy announced a new pretty comprehensive Plan A to become what the CEO Fong Li called now A an actively managed. He said they're moving, the company is moving from one way capital issuance to active capital management. I gotta say I am very supportive of what they did on Monday. And here's what they did. The board approved a new USD reserve policy. The reserve stood at 2.55 billion on June 28, which I believe was. What was that Monday? And no, that would have been prior to Monday. And they raised the STRC dividend from 11.5% to 12%, which again has been the method that they've used to try to bump it back towards par. They authorized a $1 billion buyback of their digital credit securities. So those are the preferred stretch, strike, stride and stream, I believe is the European one. And they authorized a buyback of up to 1 billion of Class A common stock. That's MSTR. And they announced a BTC monetization program, author rising up to 1.25 billion of Bitcoin sales to fund the reserve dividends and interest or buybacks. It doesn't obligate that they sell and anything outside of those purchases purposes would need a fresh board vote. So I think they kind of did everything. People were calling for stretch buybacks. They were calling for selling a bunch of bitcoin to raise cash. They didn't sell a bunch of bitcoin on Monday or announced that they had, but they did create a pathway for them to do it should they need to. I think they did hit the MSTR ATM and increase their Runway to what one analyst said, if you include the potential Bitcoin sales. 25.9 months of Runway, more than two years. I think just with the cash they have now, it's about 17 months, the Runway being the cash to pay the dividends for the preferred security holders. So I think this was a very prudent move. Very prudent. I think they kind of authorized all the options for themselves. And this is what Fong is now saying is an active strategy. But I have to say, a lot of people doom saying on MSTR like it's. I've heard the word solvency and bankruptcy thrown around. Totally unintelligent and inappropriate to use those terms. They have $50 billion of Bitcoin. Okay? This is, you know, and by the way, hearing some armchair quarterbacks talk shit about Michael Saylor and the team at Strategy when I'm sorry, do you have $50 billion of Bitcoin? Like, let's get serious here, all right? Their liabilities are nowhere close to their assets. It's embarrassing to hear people calling for that. And I have to say there are real issues, right. And they got themselves into a bit of a pickle. There's no doubt about that. Right. Unable, basically the digital credit engine currently not running and not funding bitcoin purchases the way Michael Saylor designed it. There's no doubt about that. Right. And I am opposed generally to sell. Some people are saying you should sell $4 billion of bitcoin right now. That would create such negative sentiment. It would, it would be reflexive and cause bitcoin to go down further. And it's not necessary. Okay, so, but this idea that somehow it's structurally broken, that he doesn't have enough capital to, you know, cover his liabilities. Words like I said insolvency, totally insane and incorrect. Hubristic as well from people that have never built something of the power of strategy. And it is powerful. And, and you know, I've heard people say that he's stupid. Oh, I'm sorry, how much bitcoin do you have? Because they have $50 billion of Bitcoin. And it's just, I find it frankly embarrassing hearing some of the doomsayers coming out, of course at the bottom. And by the way, a lot of doomsayers in tradfi coming out declaring that bitcoin's dead. Seen a lot more of that lately. I've been around, Bitcoin's been a lot deader than this. You're telling me 60k BTC and Bitcoin is dead? Listen to yourselves. You sound stupid when you say that. And I will also say people said, oh, what happened to the digital gold thesis? Where's the digital gold thesis? I thought it was supposed to be like gold. You know where it is? It's right there at 60k. Last time bitcoin bottomed at 15 7. That's the digital gold thesis. The people buying bitcoin here are the ones who believe in bitcoin's long term promise as a store of value. That's the digital gold thesis. Those are the digital gold buyers, the ones buying at these levels. You know, I've been a buyer, a structural buyer, and that's it. That rising floor, even if we go lower, that floor will be so much bigger than prior lows. Like that's that buyer of last resort. The number of them are growing every cycle. And they are buyers of bitcoin like I am at these levels. And well, I'm buying at every level. So, you know, I just, I just, it's just, God, every time, you know, this happens every time bitcoin goes down a bunch and people say, oh, is bitcoin dead? It's not dead. All right, TikTok, TikTok, next block. They keep printing. And by the way, to hear people, you know, I get it, you know, if you, it's the sort of the price above that rising floor is the speculators. They're the ones that drive it to 125. But meanwhile the long term believers keep stacking. One of the things that we know could probably send bitcoin and crypto higher is Clarity act passage. And if you follow my content, you know I've written extensively about this. I think I'm the only analyst in a crypto firm that's been consistently and deeply covering this. Most of the rest of the crypto industry is merely advocating. We're also obviously advocating, and I am too. But our clients and counterparties like to trade volatility and they want to know point in time odds. Of course they and everyone can rely on things like polymarket and Kalshi. But also I've written about this and the high watermark for my likelihood was after the May Senate banking markup of the Clarity act where I pegged because of the bipartisan outcome there, the odds at 75%. It's been bleeding lower since then, I think I've put out two adjustments downwards for 60, 40 and just last week, 50, 50. And I, and I'm sorry to say it looks like it's going to bleed lower the odds right now Senate is, is going into July 4th recess. And then, you know, I had previously said this, I think if we don't get a vote scheduled, announced in the next week or so, week and a half, the odds get pretty low. Now just the scheduling the vote doesn't mean it's going to pass. And I think the reason why even a vote scheduling, floor vote scheduling would not materially raise my odds that much is it's also not quite clear the vote can get to 60 votes. So while I do think that a positive outcome on Clarity this summer, before the August recess, which is basically at the end of July though, they could extend the congressional time a little bit. While I think it needs to happen before the August recess, it's just not clear that it can. And I think if it does, it's a positive. Clearly if it doesn't, I do think the market is gonna take it as a negative if we see a floor vote that doesn't succeed. But it shouldn't take it as negative, I think, as some have said, because the reality is with these agency directors at the SEC and CFTC and elsewhere in treasury, etc. And the banking regulators, the OCC, all the charters that have been applied for and conditionally approved or approved. We're likely to get the crypto industry most of what it wants from agency guidance, interpretive guidance and relief for at least the next two and a half years. The real reason we want clarity recall is to codify it in federal statute. And that is a good reason to get it, no doubt. But again, I think the downside should be somewhat limited. Whether the market agrees with me or not, at least on a fundamental basis, I can tell you the downside is somewhat limited. We get a lot of what we need and want and should have to make this market better, safer, more transparent, more accessible and promote innovation from the agencies themselves. So, you know, still need to wait and see what's going to happen. You know, we still have outstanding issues like ethics and the illicit finance, as they say, illicit activity, what we would call dev protections. You know, it seems like there's still some shoes to drop there. And without, you know, certainly on ethics, without some compromise resolution here, I don't think you do get to 60. And we haven't heard news of those compromises being successful yet either. I've got to say that while everyone knew that the President and his family are involved in crypto, I think, you know, he just last night released his Office of Government Ethics financial disclosure that showed substantial at least 100 million. That's a low, that's a floor because some of it are reported as up to at least 100 million in assets, crypto assets owned directly by the President or through his ownership interest in World Liberty Financial. Again, everyone knows this already, but I think the numbers probably give some numerical talking points to cryptos, the anti crypto army. Let's move on. Let's talk about stablecoins. Everyone loves stablecoins. There was just a new consortium announced, open standard USD, I believe it's called ousd. You know, Galaxy is a member of this coalition, but we're talking dozens of banks and fintech companies and crypto companies all involved in this. Made a lot of news. I haven't seen any information. It seemed like it today is just a press release. You know, a lot of discussion about whether, you know, Coinbase is part of that coalition or consortium or whatever we call it. A lot of people speculating like, well, I thought that they were, you know, deep in it with Circle. They have USDC on their platform. They still do, I think, and I'VE got to say a lot of markets in the world end up looking like 60, 30, 10. So one big player dominates with 60%, a secondary player has 30% and then the long long tail of competitors fills out that other 10%. For example the transfer agent market, computer share equity and a bunch of others. Stablecoin Market about 180 billion by tether 75 billion circle so less than half. And then the next biggest one I believe is Sky USD which is like Maker Dao's decentralized stablecoin at 7 literally an order of magnitude lower than 3 is an order of magnitude lower than circle and then a long tail and frankly the only other consortium based stablecoin that I'm aware of that is in the top 10 is number tenants USDG which I believe not certain don't hold me on this but I want to disclose I think Galaxy is also involved in so again the history and Jeremy Allaire made this point about consortium stablecoins simply haven't seen one work. Doesn't mean this one or you know, get huge adoption. I should say not they don't work. But the reality is we haven't seen any stablecoin really beyond circle even challenge tether. Now will the market always look 60, 30, 10 in stables? Not necessarily. It's not a pool, although it does appear to be one of those things like the Fibonacci pattern that may appear in nature all else equal, but something to watch nonetheless. Stablecoin interest surging. Right. Genius act rulemaking is coming soon, I think by the fall and you're going to see a lot more stablecoin adoption. I guess the big question for crypto is like Satoshi said, the root problem with traditional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. And the history of central banking is filled with betrayals of that trust. I'm paraphrasing, it's a famous quote from Satoshi. He didn't say the root problem with fiat currency is that we can't settle fast enough between banks. In some ways, stablecoins stealing the limelight from bitcoin and crypto, it's a bit deflating if you've been in this space, whether you're a bitcoiner or a web3 maximalist or whatever it is, you know, using our tech to move dollars didn't seem necessarily like the vision of, you know, utopian victory that we've had as bitcoiners. And there's a big question about whether growth Tom Lee has argued this, whether the growth in Stablecoins will accrue value to say Ethereum to eth. I would say today. So far it hasn't. And a lot of these stablecoins whether it's USDC Circle announcing their Ark blockchain or Stripe saying they're going to use Tempo or the emergence of these other either stablecoin focused or even sort of semi public blockchains and frankly I think I'm being charitable. Do those accrue value to the crypto assets that the world loves so much? It's not clear that they do. That's a big outstanding question. As stablecoin growth grows. Another big topic that's similar to stablecoins, tokenized securities. And our audience will know that I'm very interested in this. You know I spent time as a senior compliance official at Fidelity deep in securities regulation. I'm very active in Washington on our portfolio of issues including tokenized securities. And of course Galaxy GLXY is one of the only issuer sponsored tokenized securities in the world with help from our friends at Superstate. So will those by the way, if they rise accrue value back to the crypto assets. I'll throw that in there as another question. I think so, maybe yes, I would say yes. Soft, yes. Not sure how to calculate that. But tokenized securities, big, big area here that everyone knows is soft. So hot right now obviously the real heat, most of the real heat is actually on perps but there are, you know, backpack has some trade XYZ I believe let alone I would say the big players, Ondo and Kraken which have I think the most outstanding supply Ondo at number one of tokenized securities. And those are third party issued securities, right. Other people call them wrappers. The format of these differs but generally at a high level they're not coming from the issuers of the securities themselves. Some version of a swap or an spv. Right. You know the SPV buys the stock, puts it in the special purpose vehicle, effectively a fund and then they tokenize the shares of the fund. And those tokens are what are out on the market ex us today. And the holders of those tokens to the extent they have recourse rights, ownership, it's between them and the spv. So like for example if they have rights to dividends, it's because the SPV is passing on the dividends. Obviously then you have Superstate, Securitize and others who are pursuing an issuer sponsored model where the tokens are coming, the tokenized securities. The tokenized format of the traditional security is emanating from the issuer. I believe in, I know in Superstate's case and I think in Securitize as well also facilitated by a registered transfer agent, Metal X and those Gabe Shapiro and his team have yet an even different native version as well. Look, I think obviously we favor the issuer sponsored model. I think that's the cleanest, it's the most. It's the way in which the token holder has a direct relationship with the issuer. And as the issuer we also prefer it. We like to know who our shareholders are so that we can reach them, contact them, interact with them, et cetera. I think this is, this is a big question. The biggest question right now in this topic is when will the securities and Exchange Commission release announce, publish their so called innovation exemption? And this is as Chairman Atkins has said, this will focus on the secondary trading on chain of tokenized securities. So the Exchange act and I say that as a distinction between the securities act, right. And primary issuance of securities, which we also understand something will come from the SEC on this and they refer to that as reg crypto or project crypto. That's interesting too, but not my focus at the moment. I'm very interested in the question is the market interested in trading securities on chain or lending and borrowing them and will the regulators allow it and in what format, under what circumstances? So we, you know, there was some reporting, I think it is in May by Bloomberg that the commission was close to issuing this and that it would include third party wrappers, meaning the third party issuer, tokenized securities. Now we don't then the Commission came out and said they were delaying or working more on it. So they effectively delayed that release by the end of that week. I think the Bloomberg story was on a Monday and by the Friday they had delayed. So they're still working on it and we understand they're doing good work and deliberative work to make sure this thing is both consumer and investor protecting, but also provides some of the relief that entities like Galaxy and Superstate need to test this in the market. And I'm a big proponent of an exemption time limited of course overseeing, you know, careful, whether you call it a sandbox, whatever you call it before we go to formal rulemaking around tokenized securities. And this is sort of where the dispute between, you know, my side and the crypto industry is having with the securities industry. Right. And the big banks, because they're calling Citadel in particular, but also big banks and sifma which is the securities industry Financial Markets Association. So their big trade group. They're calling for, you know, more caution, taking it slow. They want more formal rulemaking. I want to be very clear. We also want formal rulemaking. We're just not quite sure what those rules should be, which is why we should have an exemption period before to let the market experiment in a controlled and safe way to determine what the pathways, viable pathways are and what the market wants. There's a long history of this in securities law and regulation. The Commission allowing for breathing room and space for the market to determine the best way to do something and then doing rulemaking, then that's what we're calling for. And I think we're going to get it. The question is when and what will be the contents of that exemption? What types of tokenized securities will they allow? What structures will they allow? What will be the relationships between shareholder and issuer that they allow? What types of issuers? Issuer. Sponsored. Also third party sponsored. I'm not sure. We're waiting to see. I will say I was happy to see it delayed. I want to get clarity resolved one way or another first before the Commission does this. That would be my preference, though, of course. I'm all power to them and thank the Commission for their great work on this. This also plays into an interesting question about, like I said, the accrual of value to Ethereum. I mean, we tokenized on Solana Galaxy stock. You know, we would also clearly, I think, consider tokenizing on Ethereum at some point in the future. But, you know, if a big portion of stock trading goes on chain, you have to think the volume alone would be supportive of, you know, Ether Soul price. The same way Tom Lee and others have argued that if a large amount of stablecoins are on Ether Soul, that eth or soul would see some reaction to that onchain volume. I'm just going to leave it out there. We don't know. We don't quite know and we're nowhere. Despite the fact there's maybe a billion dollars worth of tokenized equity securities today on chain. We're. That's nothing compared to the size of the stock market. Have to think that we would see some uptake generally in the use of, of these chains and therefore the ownership of their assets if we got a substantial portion of stocks tokenized. Another topic I want to talk about is agents. Um, we use them. I use them all day. Well, I really just use coding agents. In fact, I really just code with Claude code and Codex. Personally, I did the Whole openclaw thing at home, running local models, using API credit usage to use Frontier models to power my openclaw agent, I gotta say I never found it to be that beneficial. To me the most beneficial thing with AI is having IT code for you. If you want something to happen on a recurring basis, don't pay Frontier model API prices to have your agent think about it, Write a program, have it run on a cron, on a daily cron, got custom newsletters to myself, dashboards to me. That is where I found enormous value from AI, not so much the agentic concept. And don't get me wrong, like if you're using Claude code and use ultracode, there are agentic workflows happening there that improve the quality adversarial testing councils of AI agents. Yes, I like all of that stuff. But the idea that you're going to have agents that just trade autonomously on your behalf, I'm not really skeptical. I'm just saying I haven't seen it. I haven't seen it. I know a lot of people are doing it. I think Robinhood announced actually today, before we recorded some agentic stuff, Coinbase announced a very cool AI registered investment advisor. I don't know if that's agentic or simply AI powered. A lot of these terms are getting thrown around a lot. Not saying autonomous agent stuff isn't going to happen. What I am saying is I haven't been able to make that very useful for me yet after despite months of work, I have coded with agents and that has been unbelievably empowering. I mean 10x there's that joke, you know, I used to. I started alexthorne.com in like 1999 and I was written in HTML and CSS and at some points in my life, you know, was coding some JavaScript but never really became a coder. Let me close with one other observation that I've had. A team member on the Galaxy research team, Will Owens, wrote a great report recently called the Race to Trade Everything about primarily prediction markets but also perps and hyper liquid and how there's everything, you can trade pretty much everything on a perps dex like hyper liquid. You can also with prediction markets, politics, weather, sports, outcomes. Right. It's all there and they're huge and. And I find them fascinating as information markets to surface market sentiment about a topic. I will say that it's kind of anathema to the bitcoin ethos and the rise of prediction markets and trade everything perps markets during what is a bitcoin bear market kind of makes sense to me. I've talked about this before. The dichotomy between meme coins and bitcoin and how, you know, decades of economic stagnation and wealth inequality, crony capitalism, whatever may be, has created a malaise among the global youth. A sense that their future may not be better than their parents. And that's a terrible thing to feel that way. And I think everyone would agree with that, that it is a terrible thing to feel that way. And that sense of despair, and it's not just in America, it's global, has led some to the zero sum things like gambling and things like meme coins, rather than a sense that you have to get rich quick, that there is no. That buckling down and doing the hard work doesn't pay off like it used to. And that you'd rather gamble on meme coins or prediction markets or sports, then work hard and save and learn about in the savings technology that is bitcoin. Right? I think at this point it's probably fair to say that the 10100 Xs aren't there. Certainly not in the near term for an asset of the size of bitcoin like it was if you had bought Bitcoin at $60 in 2013, 2014, whenever that was. But the long term bitcoiners, the people buying at 60k, people that believe in the long term digital gold thesis, the scarcity, the digital scarcity that bitcoin is not that it represents, that it is. They're not buying for 100x, they're buying to preserve their wealth over time and space. Bitcoin has been very good at that over the last, I guess what now, 20, 26, 17 years of its existence? And there is a bit of a dichotomy there in my mind. The rise of trade, everything, gamble everything, versus the savings technology that is bitcoin. Like all dichotomies, they ebb and flow. And I think you will find again, I'm very confident that bitcoin finds its footing in this market. That the world once again takes up the cause of realizing that a hard money has real value in the world. And who knows when that day will come, but it will come. And what does he say in Wolf of Wall Street? We're not effing leaving. That's it for this week's episode of Galaxy Brains. Everyone have a safe and happy July 4th. Congratulations America 250. We made it, mom. We're still here. We will see you. Well, actually we're off next week, so we will see you in two weeks. Thank you for listening Galaxy Brains, the weekly podcast from Galaxy Research. I'm Alex Thorne, Head of Firmwide Research Alaxy. Follow me on X TangibleCoins. Follow Galaxy Research on X L X Y Research. Read our written reports@galaxy.com research and don't forget if you like Galaxy Brains to like and subscribe on your favorite podcast platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts and more. We'll see you next time.
Podcast: Galaxy Brains
Host: Alex Thorn (Head of Firm Wide Research, Galaxy Digital)
Date: July 2, 2026
In this solo episode of Galaxy Brains, Alex Thorn provides a deep dive into the current state of Bitcoin and broader crypto markets in mid-2026. With no guests this week, Thorn tackles major pressing topics including Bitcoin’s market cycle, MicroStrategy’s strategic pivot, the significance of the Clarity act, trends in stablecoins and tokenized securities, the realities of AI-powered trading agents, and the cultural contrast between Bitcoin maximalism and the explosion of prediction/gambling markets. Throughout, Thorn combines data-driven analysis, personal insights, and pointed commentary, offering listeners both macro context and granular takes on where the crypto industry stands right now.
[03:30–17:45]
Rudderless Markets and "Summer Doldrums"
The "58k Gang" & Bottom Speculation
On-Cycle Analysis: Four-Year Pattern
Bottom Targets Based on Historic Signals
Quote:
[17:50–30:00]
Company Overview
Actions Announced (as of June 28)
Thorn’s Take
Memorable Quote:
[30:10–38:40]
Status Check
Potential Impact
Current Situation
[38:45–53:00]
Stablecoin Market Structure
Consortium Model Skepticism
Regulatory Updates
Satoshi’s Vision vs Stablecoin Reality
Tokenized Securities Landscape
Value Accrual to Chains
[53:10–58:25]
[58:30–End]
Observation
Bitcoiners’ Perspective
On Bitcoin’s Resilience
On MicroStrategy/Saylor Criticism
On Stablecoins vs the Satoshi Vision
On Macro Malaise and Memecoins
On AI in Crypto
This summary aims to capture all major themes and memorable moments from Alex Thorn’s July 2026 State of Bitcoin episode, and should serve as an insightful resource for those who haven’t listened.