Josh Arnold (87:01)
Chris, I've got to be on the wrong side of a lot of, of a lot of things that have been going on. I'll say a lot of things that have been going on on a macro level, not so much on a micro level. Macro being what's going on generally in the, in the economy. Micro or macro level. What, what is the Fed want to be doing with interest rate? Macro level, the government passing a tax bill. I agree with macro level. The government pushing tariff, which I disagree with macro level. The government trying to set price cap on, on credit cards or, or price caps we'll say on insurance costs. Now the issues it'll come down or can come down to the micro levels in and impact, impact individual companies. I mean this morning and this I understand is a way to negotiate, the administration threatens to increase tariffs on South Korea, particularly South Korean cars and pharmaceuticals from 15% which was agreed, agreed on last summer with the announcement of a trade deal with South Korea to 25% because the South Korean legislature has not yet approved the trade deal that was agreed upon by Trump and president of South Korea last year. So this is, this could be seen as a negotiating tactic towards the South Koreans who will say FHT or get off pot, so to speak. And now we could have some more tariffs directed we'll say back at the EU and India as both India and the EU and the eu, the European Union are close to finalizing a free trade deal that has been negotiated over the last five years. So there could be and I emphasize very much could be some pushback from the administration both towards Europe and towards India. So that's, that's something to wait and see. Meantime, the administration has talked about putting caps on credit card interest rates at 10%. Now I do understand and we talked about that because the interest rates on credit cards to me are at and have been and at user levels, levels above 25%. The bank and credit card issuers response is that these are unsecured, unsecured debt and they would be on the hook, you know, should people not pay on these loans and they don't want to be on that loans. And at the same time, you know, the credit card issuers have been force, maybe not forced, but push to offer credit to just about anybody who can read. So I do understand, you know, their, their predicament. And last night after the market closed, the administration pushed for a limit on Medicare Advantage plans in terms of their price increases. The market was anticipating price increases up to 5% but it looks like the limit is down under 1% or virtually flat. Companies that issue these Medicare plans, whether It's Humana or UnitedHealthcare have seen their stock down today 19% to DB. Dow Jones is currently, or I'll say as we speak, down 400 points. And the bulk of that loss in the Dow today is coming from UnitedHealthcare's drop in, I'll say significant drop in price today, you know, on this news, plus their earnings news as we speak. You know, UnitedHealthcare is down $69 a share and if I were to multiply that out there we'll say I'll say about 6, 6% or 6 times 69 and you get a pretty big number in terms of Dow point I'll say that said I have not been investor in bank stocks or insurance stocks. We'll say pharmaceuticals and others which I've gone over with is my focus has been on companies involved in the Internet now includes artificial intelligence, leisure related businesses, China related businesses, real assets like real estate for a small portion of portfolio doing short term trading to take advantage of some of the volatility around companies within my my focus area. And of course we've talked about the asset allocation mechanism of keeping up to 30% in cash both for safety and opportunity as markets tend to pull back 5 to 10% anywhere from three to four times a year and the balance invested in companies geared for growth either fast growth or steady long term growth. And in terms of steady long term growth some of these long term growers are set to report tomorrow after the after the close including Microsoft, Metta, Tesla favorite Apple reports on Thursday. Each one of these companies is bouncing a little bit off their off their low and each one of these companies part of the acronym the Magnificent magnificent seven still to me offer offer plenty of opportunity for longer term growth. And but and there is going to be different considerations as they report their their numbers for Meta and Microsoft focus is going to be on spending around artificial intelligence and building out data centers and their cloud and when when are they going to get a return on the spending? For Tesla focus is not going to be on car sales. It will be on robo taxis and robots and and maybe even some talk about privately held SpaceX being bought back by Tesla for Apple. Now for Apple analysts who are primarily hardware oriented will be focused in on phone sales and Apple sales in China more than anything else. And with all four of them focus is going to be on their guidance going forward. So do pay attention as we've got more to go and even some more macro when the Fed reports their decision on interest rates tomorrow after lunch.
