GD POLITICS Podcast: "2025 Could See Lowest Murder Rate On Record" Summary
Release Date: July 28, 2025 | Host: Galen Druke
Introduction
In the latest episode of the GD POLITICS podcast, host Galen Druke delves into the significant decline in murder and violent crime rates across the United States. Joined by Jeff Asher, a seasoned data analyst with experience at the New Orleans Police Department and the CIA, the discussion explores the data trends, underlying causes, and the disconnect between public perception and reality regarding crime in America.
Historic Decline in Murder Rates
Key Highlights:
- Historic Drop: The U.S. is on track to record the largest one-year drop in murder rates, marking the third consecutive year of decline.
- City-Specific Data: Major cities like Los Angeles, Baltimore, Detroit, San Francisco, and New York have reported their fewest murders since the mid-1960s.
Notable Quotes:
- Jeff Asher [01:16]: “Data from the first half of this year suggests that the US is on track to have the largest one-year drop in murder on record for the third straight year.”
- Galen Druke [01:44]: “Spare one year 2017.” (Referring to San Francisco and New York recording their fewest murders ever.)
Broad Declines in Crime Rates
Key Highlights:
- Violent and Property Crime: Both violent crime and property crime are at or near historic lows.
- Public Perception Gap: Despite the data, 64% of Americans believe crime has increased, a significant drop from 77% in 2023 but still indicative of a major misconception.
Notable Quotes:
- Galen Druke [04:28]: “Said there was more crime.”
- Jeff Asher [02:29]: “Residing to use H Datalytics and writes about crime data at Jeffalytics on Substack.”
Analyzing the Decline: Potential Causes
Key Highlights: Jeff Asher outlines several theories that may explain the decline in murder rates, emphasizing that no single factor is solely responsible. He suggests a combination of multiple small factors rather than a single overarching cause.
Notable Quotes:
- Jeff Asher [06:05]: “There’s a bunch of theories... the ultimate answer probably lies with a whole bunch of little things rather than one single thing that caused it.”
- Asher uses a chocolate cake metaphor: “...like if you gave me the world’s greatest chocolate cake recipe and you said, here are the ingredients, go make the cake.”
Police Legitimacy and Clearance Rates
Key Highlights:
- Declining Trust: The murder of George Floyd in late May 2020 led to a significant drop in police legitimacy, creating cycles of violence and reducing clearance rates.
- Firearm Surge: A surge in firearm purchases acted as an accelerant to existing societal issues.
- Clearance Rates: Clearance rates for crimes have plummeted, with murder at around 60%, property crimes at 15%, and auto theft at 9%.
Notable Quotes:
- Jeff Asher [07:04]: “The murder of George Floyd happens in late May... it creates cycles of violence.”
- Galen Druke [17:27]: “...something like 37% of violent crimes are being solved.”
Impact of Staffing on Police Response
Key Highlights:
- Increased Response Times: Major cities have seen response times for police calls triple or double since 2019.
- Staffing Shortages: Between 2019 and 2022, many police departments experienced significant officer shortages, leading to longer response times and lower clearance rates.
Notable Quotes:
- Unknown Guest [12:25]: “Response times for the police appear to be going up across the country.”
- Jeff Asher [13:12]: “It’s really a staffing issue... My city, New Orleans went from about 1200 officers and recruits in 2019 to about 940 today.”
Effectiveness of Policing Strategies
Key Highlights:
- Adding More Police: Research indicates that increasing police numbers correlates with fewer homicides. However, departments struggle to hire more officers despite significant financial investments.
- Civilianizing Police Roles: Cities like New Orleans have successfully reduced response times by hiring civilians and contractors to handle non-emergency calls, freeing up police resources for more critical incidents.
Notable Quotes:
- Jeff Asher [25:45]: “New Orleans... hired a contractor to respond to non-injury traffic accidents and 100 civilians to handle non-emergency calls, reducing average response times from 180 to 50 minutes.”
- Jeff Asher [23:47]: “Research tells us that yes, there is a relationship between adding more police and fewer homicides... but departments are not able to hire more officers.”
Public Perception vs. Reality
Key Highlights:
- Persistent Misconceptions: A majority of Americans mistakenly believe that crime is rising, despite data showing significant declines.
- Media Influence: Media tends to highlight violent and sensational crimes, overshadowing data-driven improvements.
- Partisanship: Political biases exacerbate perception gaps, with Democrats and Republicans holding differing views on crime trends.
Notable Quotes:
- Galen Druke [43:36]: “Why do Americans believe that crime is still rising despite the fact that some of this violent crime and even property crime are actually near record lows.”
- Jeff Asher [43:46]: “Most of these explanations include media coverage, data scarcity, and increased visibility of crimes through technology platforms like Nextdoor and Ring cameras.”
Future Outlook and Challenges
Key Highlights:
- Unsustainable Decline: While ongoing declines are promising, Jeff Asher cautions that the trend cannot continue indefinitely and may eventually level off or reverse.
- Unclear Causation: The multifaceted causes behind the decline make it challenging to predict future trends accurately.
- Policy Recommendations: Emphasizing the need for innovative policing strategies, such as the civilian integration model, to sustain and enhance crime reduction.
Notable Quotes:
- Jeff Asher [49:10]: “At some point, this trend is going to stop and the downward slope is going to slowly start to peter out.”
- Galen Druke [50:16]: “So although you know what, in looking... what we did get to zero on murders related to bank robberies.”
Conclusion
The episode underscores a critical discrepancy between actual crime data and public perception, highlighting the successes in reducing murder rates and overall violent crime. Jeff Asher emphasizes the complexity of factors contributing to these declines, including federal funding, improved policing strategies, and societal shifts post-pandemic. However, ongoing challenges such as police staffing shortages and persistent public misconceptions pose significant hurdles moving forward. The conversation calls for informed policy interventions and continued data analysis to sustain and understand these positive trends.
For more insights and in-depth analysis, visit GD POLITICS.