GD POLITICS: "A 2025 Election Post-Mortem"
Host: Galen Druke
Guests: Laksha Jain (Political Data, The Argument & Split Ticket), Lynley Sanders (Polls Reporter, AP), Lenny Brauner (Data Scientist, Washington Post)
Date: November 13, 2025
Overview
In this episode, host Galen Druke gathers a panel of political data analysts and reporters to dissect the results of the 2025 elections. The team dives deep into voter turnout versus persuasion, demographic shifts—focusing on Hispanic and young voters—and the core issues motivating the electorate. They also compare 2025 patterns to recent elections, using fresh data and real-world insights to explain what happened, why, and what it could mean for the 2026 midterms.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Turnout vs. Persuasion: The Questions Driving Election Analysis
Listener Question: Was the 2025 election outcome driven by turnout or persuasion?
- Laksha Jain (03:20): “Turnout is persuasion in a lot of ways... Non-voters actually care about a lot of the same things as swing voters do.”
- Non-voters in 2024 leaned toward Trump. If all had voted, Trump would have increased his margin.
- In 2025, Democrats saw both good turnout and captured a notable share of 2024 Trump voters (7% in Virginia and New Jersey went Democratic this year).
Conclusion:
There’s significant overlap between persuading someone to vote and persuading them to switch parties; both dynamics fueled Democratic gains.
2. Hispanic Voters: Reversion or Realignment?
- Host (04:17): Notes the decisive swing among Hispanic voters towards Democrats, especially in New Jersey.
- Laksha Jain (04:57):
- “Almost 20% of Trump 2024 Hispanic voters outright voted for Mikey Sherrill... there is a substantial persuasion component.”
- Also notes likely “Biden 2020 to Trump 2024 to Mikey Sherrill 2025” dynamic: a “last in, first out” trend.
- Some low-propensity Hispanic Trump voters sat out 2025, but the partisan swing was “massive beyond what I’d expect from a normal down ballot lag.”
- Lenny Brauner (06:35):
- Swing voters are real, and those who change once are more likely to switch again.
Takeaway:
Persuasion played a large role as many Hispanic voters came back to Democrats, possibly reverting after a one-time swing to Trump in 2024.
3. What Motivated Voters in 2025?
- Lynley Sanders (07:48):
- “It was over the economy. If you look at Virginia... about half of Virginia voters said the economy was the top issue... about 6 in 10 said their family had been affected by the federal government cuts.”
- Spanberger, the Democratic candidate, “very handily won those federal worker households.”
- Host & Panel:
- Economic and “pocketbook” issues topped the list across Virginia, New Jersey, and NYC.
- Trump, though not on the ballot, was a motivator—especially as someone voters wanted to oppose. (11:16)
- Discontent: “More than half the voters in New Jersey and Virginia said that they were angry or dissatisfied with how things were going in the country.” (11:16)
4. Crunching the Numbers: How Much Was Turnout vs. Persuasion?
- Laksha Jain (09:00):
- “Turnout is one vote, and persuasion is two.”
- Rough breakdown: 2/3 persuasion, 1/3 turnout.
- Lenny Brauner (09:23):
- Referencing Nate Cohn’s NYT analysis of voter file data in New Jersey:
- Democrats had a 19-point turnout advantage over Republicans, up from 16 points in 2024.
- Of the 9-point total shift, about 3.5 points are attributed to turnout, the rest to persuasion.
- Referencing Nate Cohn’s NYT analysis of voter file data in New Jersey:
Summary:
The panel coalesces around the view that persuasion—the movement of voters across party lines—mattered more than turnout alone, especially in New Jersey.
5. Demographic Shifts: What’s Changed and What Stayed the Same?
a) Turnout Trends (12:04 | 13:35)
- Lenny Brauner:
- New York saw “the highest turnout since at least 2001” for a mayoral race.
- New Jersey’s turnout up 23% from 2021; highest numbers since early 2000s.
- Virginia’s turnout down slightly from 2021, but overall the US is in a “high turnout environment,” continuing the post-2015 trend.
- Laksha Jain:
- Turnout boosts tend to be “across the board”—in both parties.
- Young voter turnout in NYC “was perhaps the most young electorate I have ever seen.”
- Zoran Mamdani’s victory driven by young voters, but tight margin shows persuasion mattered too.
b) Youth and Ethnic Vote (15:16)
- Lynley Sanders:
- AP voter poll: “Close to eight in 10 voters under 30 voted for [Mamdani], while older voters were going more for Cuomo. It really was a generational race.”
- Mamdani secured “about nine in 10 Muslim voters,” while “about six in 10 Jewish voters went for Cuomo.”
- Media narratives on the demographics matched actual results.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Laksha Jain (03:20):
- “Turnout is persuasion in a lot of ways.”
- Laksha Jain (04:57):
- “Almost 20% of Trump 2024 Hispanic voters outright voted for Mikey Sherrill... there is a substantial persuasion component.”
- Lynley Sanders (07:48):
- “About half of Virginia voters said that the economy was the top issue facing the state.”
- Lenny Brauner (09:23):
- “Democrats had a 19 point turnout advantage by party registration. This is up from around 16 percentage points in 2024... the shift between 2024 and 2025 was closer to 9 points, which is, I think, where these 2/3, 1/3 weighting comes from.”
- Lynley Sanders (15:16):
- “It really was a generational race... eight in 10 voters under 30 voted for [Mamdani].”
Timestamps for Key Segments
| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------|-------------| | Was it turnout or persuasion? | 03:20–06:35 | | Hispanic voter realignment trends | 04:17–06:35 | | Economic issues & voter motivation| 07:48–12:04 | | Turnout vs. persuasion math | 09:00–10:32 | | Demographic & turnout shifts | 12:04–15:56 | | Generational split in NYC mayoral | 15:16–15:56 |
Tone & Style
The discussion is data-driven, nuanced, and slightly irreverent—full of deep dives, clear breakdowns, and light, playful banter. The roundtable dynamic keeps things engaging while offering serious insight for political junkies and casual listeners alike.
Final Notes
This episode offers a rich postmortem of the 2025 elections with a rare blend of granular data analysis and real-world context. The team’s consensus: persuasion (especially among swing groups and on the economy) played an even bigger role than turnout, but both contributed to Democratic victories. The evolving dynamics among Hispanic and young voters, and the dominance of economic anxieties, are the standout stories heading into 2026.