GD POLITICS – "A 2028 Democratic Primary Draft (Live!)"

Host: Galen Druke
Guests: Nate Silver & Claire Malone
Date: January 29, 2026
Setting: Live at the Comedy Cellar, NYC

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode combines serious analysis of current political crises with the podcast’s trademark curiosity and humor—setting the scene with discussion of dramatic recent events in Minneapolis and then launching into a live, draft-style speculation of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary field. The tone effortlessly shifts from somber, in-depth dissection of police violence, government shutdown politics, and intra-Democratic dilemmas to a playful, competitive "draft" of likely Democratic nominees, leveraging audience participation and panelists' wit.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Banter: Minneapolis Snowstorm & Local Politics

• Grades for Mayor Zoran Mamdani's First Snowstorm Response
  • Claire Malone: "A minus. He should have given the kids a snow day. If I were mayor, I would just hand out snow day days like Oprah hands out presents." (00:59)
  • Panel—good-natured ribbing about city services, varying snow removal experiences, and mayoral performance.

Memorable Moment

• Nate Silver joking about previous mayor scandals:
  • "He was not in Bermuda at the time of the snowstorm, so that, like, actually is an improvement." (01:25)

2. Setting Expectations for the Live Audience

• Warning to Attendees
  "None of the jokes are going to be performed by professional comedians tonight. ...We advertise this as a live 2028 Democratic primary draft and we are absolutely going to do that. ...But we are going to begin with the news of the day..." (03:08)

3. Deep Dive: Minneapolis Shooting & Political Fallout

• Background:
  • Federal immigration officer shot and killed Alex Preddy, a VA ICU nurse, at a protest in Minneapolis.
  • Second such killing in less than three weeks. Administration accused of rapid, false branding (“domestic terrorists”) of victims; now backtracking and withdrawing personnel amid shutdown threat.
  • Senate is debating DHS funding, risking a shutdown if not resolved by Friday.

Panel Analysis

• Claire Malone:

  • Notes the unexpected reactions from right-wing influencers due to Preddy’s profile:

    "He was carrying a gun with a legal permit and that he was sort of doing all the correct things...I think there is a certain, like, gun ownership valence that's on that." (05:52)

  • Contrasts media treatment and “ideal victims” dynamic comparing Preddy and Renee Goode, noting gender and sexuality differences in public narration.

• Nate Silver:

  • Argues this is a “moment of moral clarity” with unusual coalition:

    "...you haven't seen like, the centrists and the libs and the left united on an issue for a long time." (08:07)

  • Draws parallel to viral moments ("Buzzfeed white vs blue dress"), but notes the clarity here is greater:

    "The gaslighting from Stephen Miller, people like that was the most alarming part of the story. ...If they had anything on him, it would be out and exaggerated tenfold by now." (09:23)

  • Expresses rare optimism:

    “I find myself feeling actually kind of more optimistic in a weird way because they have had to retreat so much. So quickly.” (10:21)

• Galen Druke:

  • Explores political implications for Trump:

    "One of the...main pacts that Trump made with the American public in his pitch...was public order and immigration enforcement. This is a huge violation of that. First of all, this is the literal fucking opposite of public order. And second of all, this shooting American citizens is not immigration or enforcement." (12:30)

  • Foresees a turning point, possibly shifting public and political alignments on immigration.

Notable Quotes

• Nate Silver, on the uniqueness of the moment:

  "Democracy is, like, not...it's a battle, right, metaphorically at least. ...The resistance, I use that term mostly unironically...seems strong in certain ways. And Democrats have taken an issue, immigration, that had been Trump's biggest asset, and turned it into at least a neutral issue." (10:54)

• Claire Malone, on the Second Amendment paradox:

  "I think there is gendered and racial valence on this. ...I do think there's a big thing in this...the NRA [is] in a position of having to defend the left position." (11:49, 15:49)

4. Congressional Response & Shutdown Odds (19:00–21:45)

• Democratic Senators' Proposed Conditions for DHS Funding:
  • Federal cooperation with state probes.
  • Customs and Border Patrol restricted to border duty.
  • Use of warrants, arrest IDs, bodycams.
  • Banning ICE from churches and schools.
• Shutdown Speculation:
  • Galen: “Polymarket says 80% chance of a shutdown this Saturday...are you buying, selling or holding?”
  • Nate: “I’d hold...Here, there is a specific goal in mind...this does feel like a significant moment to me.” (20:03)
  • Claire: “Bye. ...We shut down the government all the time. ...Yes, I think we will shut down the government.” (21:30–21:46)

5. 2028 Democratic Primary Draft (Begins ~22:00)

• Draft Mechanics & Rules Explanation:
  • Panelists draft likely 2028 Democratic presidential nominees—points system given, including for entering, advancing, winning states, and nomination.
  • Audience participation to determine draft order; several lighthearted asides about who presents the draft board.

First Pick Discussion

• Galen Druke:

  • Picks Gavin Newsom, albeit reluctantly:

    “I will pick, in this case, Gavin Newsom. ...He wants it. He wants it bad...He feels like the kind of sort of strong, punchy type character who can do that.” (24:54, 26:36)

    • Notes Newsom’s strengths in the fragmented “clown car” field:

    “Being out early and being seen as a winner is really valuable in those situations. ...That puts Gavin Newsom in a good position as far as attention is concerned.” (25:00)

• Claire Malone:

  • Skeptical, cites “likability”:

    “I just think he has sort of a punchable face...I just think once voters meet him, they won’t like him. ...It’s like the Beto effect.” (27:21)

    • Notes: Compare to “punchable Vanity Fair cover” for Beto O’Rourke.

• Nate Silver:

  • Defends Newsom as a logical first pick despite thinking he may be “overbought” with activists:

    “There’s this cohort of Democrats thinking you can just actually be more cringe. ...He has made some semblance of trying to, like, be a little bit more, I don’t know, heterodox in his, like, podcast invites. ...If I were actually putting real money on it, he would probably have to be my first pick. Even though I think he’s, like, probably overrated by the markets.” (28:00)

Snake Draft Continues

• Nate Chimes In:
  • (Jokingly) Picks Zoran Mamdani; actually picks Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) before the segment ends. (29:48)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Claire Malone (re: Gavin Newsom):

  “I just think he has sort of a punchable face and that, that will, I mean, I. This is actually—actual political analysis, though.” (27:21)

• Nate Silver (on Stephen Miller):

  “Stephen Miller is like a Five Sigma...the fucking Michael Jordan of fascism, basically.” (16:50)

• Galen Druke (on primary field):

  “Democrats want their own Trump, basically. They want somebody who is going to come in and get even and do to them what they did to us.” (26:36)

Section Timestamps

| Section | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------------|----------------| | Snowstorm & NYC Banter | 00:50–02:00 | | Audience Warning & Show Framing | 03:08 | | Minneapolis Shooting—Panel Reaction | 05:52–16:00 | | Political Implications, DHS Funding, Shutdown Odds | 17:55–21:46 | | Draft Rules, Order, and Opening Picks | 22:00–29:48 | | Episode Preview Ends | 30:06 |

Tone, Language, and Atmosphere

Stay true to the witty, irreverent, and incisive tone of GD POLITICS:

• Panelists combine rigorous political analysis (“normies, activist base, heterodox messaging”) with laughter and irreverence (“punchable face,” “more cringe,” “trading points for draft position”).
• Banter and audience interaction bring humor to weighty subjects without diminishing their seriousness.

Engagement & Flow

This episode is valuable for listeners seeking:

• Absorbing, fluent analysis of urgent political news and its broader stakes.
• Punchy, insider-y but accessible projections for the next major Democratic primary.
• Engaged debate on both personalities and strategies—in the party and nationally.

For the full Democratic Primary Draft, roster breakdown, and wilder banter, paid subscribers can listen or watch the entire episode at gdpolitics.com.