GD POLITICS: A Guide To 2025's Statewide Elections

Host: Galen Druke
Guests: Chaz Nuticombe (State Navigate), Mary Radcliffe (State Navigate, 50 Plus One)
Date: October 27, 2025

Episode Overview

With one week left until the 2025 off-off-year elections, Galen Druke and his guests break down the key statewide contests: Virginia and New Jersey’s gubernatorial and legislative races, California’s pivotal redistricting proposition (Prop 50), and several notable down-ballot races and measures elsewhere. The episode delves into polling, voting demographics, campaign strategies, and key trends that will define the outcomes. The conversation is data-driven, witty, and full of practical details for understanding the fast-approaching elections.

Main Segments and Timestamps

1. Introduction & Banter [00:36–03:11]
2. Virginia: Gubernatorial, AG, and Legislature [03:11–26:49]
3. New Jersey: Gubernatorial and Demographics [26:49–39:03]
4. California Proposition 50: Redistricting [39:03–43:23]
5. Other Races to Watch [43:23–48:22]
6. Maine: The Graham Platner Scandal [48:22–54:02]

1. Virginia: The Gubernatorial and Down-Ballot Races

[03:11–26:49]

Key Points

• Abigail Spanberger (D) vs. Winsome Earl Sears (R):

  • Spanberger leads by ~8 points in polling average but individual polls range from a 5-point to 13-point lead.
  • State Navigate model gives Spanberger a 98% chance of victory with an estimated margin of 11 points.
  • Polling variation stems from methodological differences in how pollsters benchmark the likely electorate (2021 exit poll vs. updated partisanship trends).
    • "There's a number of pollsters that are sort of mystifyingly to me, weighting their demographics to the 2021 exit poll, which seems crazy..." – Mary [08:13]

• Demographic Shifts & Campaign Strategy:

  • Spanberger:
    • Focusing on the economy and cost of living → gaining with lower-income voters.
    • Doing well in Richmond and among well-educated suburban voters.
    • Potential underperformance with Black voters in Hampton Roads and Asian voters in Loudoun County.
  • Sears:
    • Focusing on cultural “red meat” issues, especially transgender policies, to energize the base rather than persuade swing voters.
    • Targeting Asian voters and hoping to replicate prior Republican base turnout strategies.

• Attorney General’s Race (Jay Jones D vs. Jason Miyares R):

  • Very close after Jones’s texting scandal; most polls have Miyares ahead, except State Navigate's poll, which had Jones +5.
    • "It's going to be probably a single digit race either way, a low single digit race either way." – Mary [17:25]
    • Significant ticket-splitting is expected; 7% of Spanberger voters may back Miyares.

• State Legislative Races & Redistricting Maneuvers:

  • Democrats likely to keep or expand their majorities and are mounting a cutthroat move to gerrymander the state via a special legislative session.
    • "Democratic leadership in the General assembly is getting filthier than a pig at a mud festival with this." – Chaz [23:03]
  • Constitutional amendments and primary date changes would be required for lasting changes.

2. New Jersey: The Gubernatorial Race & Demographics

[26:49–39:03]

Key Points

• Mikey Sherrill (D) vs. Jack Cittarelli (R):

  • Sherrill leads by a projected 5–6 points; State Navigate gives her an 88% chance of winning.
  • Less methodological variation in polling compared to Virginia.
  • Key Factors:
    • Cost of living issues dominate, and with an unpopular Democratic incumbent (Phil Murphy), anti-incumbency may boost Republicans.
    • Cittarelli's appeal as a "regular guy" Republican (like Youngkin in VA).

• Demographic Patterns:

  • Sherrill: Strong with non-white (especially Black, Asian, and Hispanic) and college-educated voters.
  • Cittarelli: Leads with white and non-college-educated voters.
    • "In a recent Rutgers Eagleton poll, Sherrill's leading among non white voters by 30 points and Cittarelli is leading among white voters by 7 points." – Mary [30:56]
  • Hispanic Voters:
    • Large populations in Passaic and Hudson counties; current turnout is lagging, raising questions for Election Day.
    • "Currently Passaic and Hudson are the two counties with the lowest turnout in the state of New Jersey." – Mary [34:44]
  • Unique coalition factors: Orthodox Jewish communities in Lakewood and elsewhere have endorsed Cittarelli; suburban swing remains key.

3. California: Proposition 50 & Gerrymandering

[39:03–43:23]

Key Points

• Proposition 50 would end independent redistricting and allow Democrats to redraw congressional lines, potentially netting five seats.
• Recent polling shows Yes (pro-prop) ahead by 20+ points (Emerson: 60–40, CBS/YouGov: 62–38).
  • "A 20 point lead is a 20 point lead." – Mary [40:57]
• Voter turnout is unpredictable in a purely off-year, single-issue election, but universal mail ballots may bolster participation.
• Electorate may skew more Democratic than usual due to issue salience and voting modes.

4. Other Key Races and Ballot Measures

[43:23–48:22]

Notables

• Pennsylvania Supreme Court: Retention votes for three justices. GOP campaign to de-seat Democratic incumbents, tying it to abortion rights.
• Georgia Utility Commission: Statewide elections for two of five commissioners (currently both Republicans) in a swing state, with the potential for long-term partisan implications.
• Ballot Measures: Maine voting system changes; Bolts Magazine cited as a top resource for tracking local ballot measures.

5. Maine: The Graham Platner Primary Scandal

[48:22–54:02]

Key Points

• Graham Platner (D) for Senate—embroiled in multiple controversies:
  • Old Reddit posts with problematic content.
  • Tattoo resembling Nazi Totenkopf; Platner claimed ignorance, since covered up after attention.
  • Membership in the Socialist Rifle Association and an infamous "Pride Month Range Day" promotion.
• Polling after scandals:
  • UNH poll: Platner +34 (mid-tattoo story).
  • NRSC poll: Platner +21 (flagged for calling tattoo “anti-Israel”).
  • SoCal Strategies poll: Mills +5 (after all news broke).
    • "It's all a very confusing picture… Generally, it's very early… voters are not going to be reacting on a dime to every political scandal…" – Mary [52:52]
• General takeaway: It’s early, polling is inconsistent, and Maine Dem voters may not be fully tuned in yet.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Virginia Gerrymander:
  "Democratic leadership in the General assembly is getting filthier than a pig at a mud festival with this."
  — Chaz [23:03]

• On Polling Methodology:
  "There's a number of pollsters that are sort of mystifyingly to me, weighting their demographics to the 2021 exit poll, which seems crazy..."
  — Mary [08:13]

• On Base Voter Turnout in Off-Years:
  "In these off, off year elections, it is always interesting to see who bothers to turn out. And usually the answer is the most pissed off voters."
  — Galen [43:23]

• On Maine's Wild Year:
  "Their promotional materials for their Pride Month range day… presumably a homosexual lobster with a rifle in front of a rainbow flag."
  — Galen [49:52]

• On Election Analysis:
  "Wake me up when Waukesha reports."
  — Mary [43:17]

Recap: Major 2025 Election Trends

• Democrats favored in major statewide races in Virginia and New Jersey, but magnitudes differ; quality of candidates and anti-incumbency play key roles.
• Demographic shifts continue: wealthier, well-educated and some non-white groups trending Democratic, but turnout among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters remains a watch point.
• Redistricting battles prominent in both legislative maneuvering (VA) and ballot measures (CA).
• Down-ballot and “in the weeds” races (courts, commissions) warrant attention in key swing states.
• Polling uncertainties are heightened in off-years, with likely electorates harder than ever to define.

For Further Information

• Polling aggregation: fiftyplusone.com (Mary's project)
• State legislative analysis: statenavigate.org
• Down-ballot coverage: Bolts Magazine
• More podcast episodes: GD Politics

Listeners gained a data-rich, candid look at the state's most competitive 2025 races, understood polling’s nuanced limitations, and left with guidance on what to watch as results roll in.