GD POLITICS: A Guide To 2025's Statewide Elections
Host: Galen Druke
Guests: Chaz Nuticombe (State Navigate), Mary Radcliffe (State Navigate, 50 Plus One)
Date: October 27, 2025
Episode Overview
With one week left until the 2025 off-off-year elections, Galen Druke and his guests break down the key statewide contests: Virginia and New Jersey’s gubernatorial and legislative races, California’s pivotal redistricting proposition (Prop 50), and several notable down-ballot races and measures elsewhere. The episode delves into polling, voting demographics, campaign strategies, and key trends that will define the outcomes. The conversation is data-driven, witty, and full of practical details for understanding the fast-approaching elections.
Main Segments and Timestamps
- Introduction & Banter [00:36–03:11]
- Virginia: Gubernatorial, AG, and Legislature [03:11–26:49]
- New Jersey: Gubernatorial and Demographics [26:49–39:03]
- California Proposition 50: Redistricting [39:03–43:23]
- Other Races to Watch [43:23–48:22]
- Maine: The Graham Platner Scandal [48:22–54:02]
1. Virginia: The Gubernatorial and Down-Ballot Races
[03:11–26:49]
Key Points
-
Abigail Spanberger (D) vs. Winsome Earl Sears (R):
- Spanberger leads by ~8 points in polling average but individual polls range from a 5-point to 13-point lead.
- State Navigate model gives Spanberger a 98% chance of victory with an estimated margin of 11 points.
- Polling variation stems from methodological differences in how pollsters benchmark the likely electorate (2021 exit poll vs. updated partisanship trends).
- "There's a number of pollsters that are sort of mystifyingly to me, weighting their demographics to the 2021 exit poll, which seems crazy..." – Mary [08:13]
-
Demographic Shifts & Campaign Strategy:
- Spanberger:
- Focusing on the economy and cost of living → gaining with lower-income voters.
- Doing well in Richmond and among well-educated suburban voters.
- Potential underperformance with Black voters in Hampton Roads and Asian voters in Loudoun County.
- Sears:
- Focusing on cultural “red meat” issues, especially transgender policies, to energize the base rather than persuade swing voters.
- Targeting Asian voters and hoping to replicate prior Republican base turnout strategies.
- Spanberger:
-
Attorney General’s Race (Jay Jones D vs. Jason Miyares R):
- Very close after Jones’s texting scandal; most polls have Miyares ahead, except State Navigate's poll, which had Jones +5.
- "It's going to be probably a single digit race either way, a low single digit race either way." – Mary [17:25]
- Significant ticket-splitting is expected; 7% of Spanberger voters may back Miyares.
- Very close after Jones’s texting scandal; most polls have Miyares ahead, except State Navigate's poll, which had Jones +5.
-
State Legislative Races & Redistricting Maneuvers:
- Democrats likely to keep or expand their majorities and are mounting a cutthroat move to gerrymander the state via a special legislative session.
- "Democratic leadership in the General assembly is getting filthier than a pig at a mud festival with this." – Chaz [23:03]
- Constitutional amendments and primary date changes would be required for lasting changes.
- Democrats likely to keep or expand their majorities and are mounting a cutthroat move to gerrymander the state via a special legislative session.
2. New Jersey: The Gubernatorial Race & Demographics
[26:49–39:03]
Key Points
-
Mikey Sherrill (D) vs. Jack Cittarelli (R):
- Sherrill leads by a projected 5–6 points; State Navigate gives her an 88% chance of winning.
- Less methodological variation in polling compared to Virginia.
- Key Factors:
- Cost of living issues dominate, and with an unpopular Democratic incumbent (Phil Murphy), anti-incumbency may boost Republicans.
- Cittarelli's appeal as a "regular guy" Republican (like Youngkin in VA).
-
Demographic Patterns:
- Sherrill: Strong with non-white (especially Black, Asian, and Hispanic) and college-educated voters.
- Cittarelli: Leads with white and non-college-educated voters.
- "In a recent Rutgers Eagleton poll, Sherrill's leading among non white voters by 30 points and Cittarelli is leading among white voters by 7 points." – Mary [30:56]
- Hispanic Voters:
- Large populations in Passaic and Hudson counties; current turnout is lagging, raising questions for Election Day.
- "Currently Passaic and Hudson are the two counties with the lowest turnout in the state of New Jersey." – Mary [34:44]
- Unique coalition factors: Orthodox Jewish communities in Lakewood and elsewhere have endorsed Cittarelli; suburban swing remains key.
3. California: Proposition 50 & Gerrymandering
[39:03–43:23]
Key Points
- Proposition 50 would end independent redistricting and allow Democrats to redraw congressional lines, potentially netting five seats.
- Recent polling shows Yes (pro-prop) ahead by 20+ points (Emerson: 60–40, CBS/YouGov: 62–38).
- "A 20 point lead is a 20 point lead." – Mary [40:57]
- Voter turnout is unpredictable in a purely off-year, single-issue election, but universal mail ballots may bolster participation.
- Electorate may skew more Democratic than usual due to issue salience and voting modes.
4. Other Key Races and Ballot Measures
[43:23–48:22]
Notables
- Pennsylvania Supreme Court: Retention votes for three justices. GOP campaign to de-seat Democratic incumbents, tying it to abortion rights.
- Georgia Utility Commission: Statewide elections for two of five commissioners (currently both Republicans) in a swing state, with the potential for long-term partisan implications.
- Ballot Measures: Maine voting system changes; Bolts Magazine cited as a top resource for tracking local ballot measures.
5. Maine: The Graham Platner Primary Scandal
[48:22–54:02]
Key Points
- Graham Platner (D) for Senate—embroiled in multiple controversies:
- Old Reddit posts with problematic content.
- Tattoo resembling Nazi Totenkopf; Platner claimed ignorance, since covered up after attention.
- Membership in the Socialist Rifle Association and an infamous "Pride Month Range Day" promotion.
- Polling after scandals:
- UNH poll: Platner +34 (mid-tattoo story).
- NRSC poll: Platner +21 (flagged for calling tattoo “anti-Israel”).
- SoCal Strategies poll: Mills +5 (after all news broke).
- "It's all a very confusing picture… Generally, it's very early… voters are not going to be reacting on a dime to every political scandal…" – Mary [52:52]
- General takeaway: It’s early, polling is inconsistent, and Maine Dem voters may not be fully tuned in yet.
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
On Virginia Gerrymander:
"Democratic leadership in the General assembly is getting filthier than a pig at a mud festival with this."
— Chaz [23:03] -
On Polling Methodology:
"There's a number of pollsters that are sort of mystifyingly to me, weighting their demographics to the 2021 exit poll, which seems crazy..."
— Mary [08:13] -
On Base Voter Turnout in Off-Years:
"In these off, off year elections, it is always interesting to see who bothers to turn out. And usually the answer is the most pissed off voters."
— Galen [43:23] -
On Maine's Wild Year:
"Their promotional materials for their Pride Month range day… presumably a homosexual lobster with a rifle in front of a rainbow flag."
— Galen [49:52] -
On Election Analysis:
"Wake me up when Waukesha reports."
— Mary [43:17]
Recap: Major 2025 Election Trends
- Democrats favored in major statewide races in Virginia and New Jersey, but magnitudes differ; quality of candidates and anti-incumbency play key roles.
- Demographic shifts continue: wealthier, well-educated and some non-white groups trending Democratic, but turnout among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters remains a watch point.
- Redistricting battles prominent in both legislative maneuvering (VA) and ballot measures (CA).
- Down-ballot and “in the weeds” races (courts, commissions) warrant attention in key swing states.
- Polling uncertainties are heightened in off-years, with likely electorates harder than ever to define.
For Further Information
- Polling aggregation: fiftyplusone.com (Mary's project)
- State legislative analysis: statenavigate.org
- Down-ballot coverage: Bolts Magazine
- More podcast episodes: GD Politics
Listeners gained a data-rich, candid look at the state's most competitive 2025 races, understood polling’s nuanced limitations, and left with guidance on what to watch as results roll in.
