GD POLITICS: "Can Any Democrat Flip Texas?"

Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Jacob Robashkin (Deputy Editor, Inside Elections)
Date: December 11, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode examines the burning question for Democrats: Can anyone flip Texas in the 2026 Senate race? Host Galen Druke and guest Jacob Robashkin analyze the entry of Rep. Jasmine Crockett into the hotly contested Texas Democratic Senate primary, break down the competitive Republican field, compare candidates’ strategies, and discuss broader midterm dynamics across states. The conversation blends insight and humor, cutting through national narratives to render the nuanced realities shaping Texas and other critical Senate races.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: The Texas Senate Race

[00:17 – 02:10]

• Jasmine Crockett has entered the Texas Democratic Senate primary, generating excitement and controversy, and leading in early polling.
• A competitive Republican field features John Cornyn, Ken Paxton, and Wesley Hunt, with the GOP race already “expensive and nasty.”
• The conversation draws a parallel to previous Democratic stars—“a Democrat for the Trump era”—and questions the fundamentals needed for a Democrat to win statewide in Texas.

2. What Really Determines a Democrat's Success in Texas?

[02:10 – 06:17]

• Jacob Robashkin's “100 Meter Dash” Analogy:

  “The first 90 meters at least, probably are all about environment... The next, you know, five meters are about who the Republican candidate is. And then it’s the last five meters where it’s going to come down to who the candidate is.”
  — Jacob Robashkin [02:12]

• Foundational Factors:

  • Environment (national vibe, presidential approval, economy) vastly outweighs candidate identity.
  • Republican candidate matters, especially with a polarizing figure like Ken Paxton. If Republicans nominate Paxton, Democrats have a unique opportunity.
  • Early Democratic contest is expected to be less negative and expensive than the Republican slugfest, offering the Democratic nominee a cleaner primary and a chance to define themselves.

3. When Demographics and Strategy Collide: Crockett vs. Talarico

[06:17 – 10:37]

• Candidate Profiles and Approaches:

  • James Talarico: Young, Presbyterian minister, experienced legislator, focuses on expanding the Democratic coalition by appealing to non-traditional Democratic voters and moderates.

    “His whole shtick is about bringing new people into the tent... pitching himself as a different kind of Democrat.”
    — Robashkin [07:24]

  • Jasmine Crockett: Focuses on activating non-voters and leaning unapologetically into Democratic values and identity, particularly as a Black woman from Dallas.
    • Her backers argue Democrats must “motivate Democratic non-voters to show up and vote, by being unapologetically who she is.”
  • Both have strong fundraising prowess and national attention; Talarico notably “went on Rogan” and raised $6 million in six weeks.

• Democratic Dilemma:

  • No prior Democratic statewide campaigns have succeeded with either strategy (expanding the coalition or mobilizing the base), highlighting the toughness of Texas for Democrats.

4. Echoes of Past Campaigns: Lessons from Davis & O’Rourke

[10:37 – 13:06]

• Galen links Crockett vs. Talarico to Wendy Davis and Beto O’Rourke's high-profile but ultimately unsuccessful statewide runs, suggesting going moderate/expansive (Beto) got closer than leaning hard left (Davis).

  “Trying to be affable and appealing to a broad cross section of Texans seems to work better than supercharging partisan affiliations, because at the end of the day, there are just a lot more Republicans in Texas than there are Democrats.”
  — Galen Druke [10:33]

• Robashkin replies that while this appears true:

  • Team Crockett dismisses “almost” winning as irrelevant ("close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades") and argues her profile is uniquely distinct compared to prior candidates.

• Key Nuances:

  • The generational gap, often a Democratic primary feature, is absent: Crockett (44) and Talarico (38) are both young.
  • Ideological distinctions are blurry; Talarico may be slightly to the left.
  • Public perceptions about candidate likability and electability are often shaped by superficial traits and assumptions.

5. The “Astroturf” Factor and Party Meddling

[13:06 – 14:20]

• The NRSC (National Republican Senatorial Committee) claims to have helped push Crockett into the race, seeing her as easier to beat—possibly “synthesizing” grassroots support for a risky Democratic choice.

• Galen notes the parallel to 2016:

  “Democrats in 2016 very much felt that Trump was far more beatable than his counterparts like Marco Rubio. And then he ultimately ended up winning. We all know how that story goes.”
  — Galen Druke [13:51]

6. Appetite for the “Trumpian” Democrat?

[14:20 – 16:03]

• Crockett has a history of provocative statements, e.g., calling Gov. Abbott “Governor Hot Wheels,” and branding Marjorie Taylor Greene as “bleach blonde, bad built, butch body,” which she turned into a T-shirt.

• Is there appetite for this style on the Democratic side? Robashkin says her polling and grassroots fundraising suggest yes, but also that “our first assessments of who is a good and who is a bad candidate are not always correct.”

  “Sometimes it's easier to say than in other cases... but I think it's a clear cut case to say that Blake Masters had some real issues that, like a Jasmine Crockett doesn't necessarily have. We'll see.”
  — Robashkin [16:22]

• Notion of “electability” is often wrong; candidates boosted by the opposition sometimes win, e.g., J.D. Vance, Bernie Moreno.

7. The Current State of the Primary Races

[16:47 – 19:56]

• Recent Democratic Primary Poll (University of Houston):

  • Crockett: 31%
  • Talarico: 25%
  • O’Rourke: 25%
  • Allred: 13% (has dropped out)

• Republican Primary:

  • Paxton: 32%
  • Cornyn: 27%
  • Hunt: 23%

• Robashkin gives Cornyn little chance:

  “John Cornyn, an incumbent at 27% in his own primary... after his allies... have poured tens of millions of dollars into the state trying to boost his image over the last eight months... That's deeply uncomfortable.”
  — Robashkin [17:55]

• If not Cornyn, Paxton is the most likely nominee, as Hunt consistently polls third. The bruising nature of the Republican race—and a possible runoff—could alter the general election calculus.

8. Beyond Texas: Senate and House Battlegrounds

[19:56 – 21:07]

• For Democrats to win back the Senate, they must defend Georgia (Ossoff) and Michigan (open), and try to flip Maine and North Carolina. Other possible targets include Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Alaska.
• The most intense Democratic primary is in Maine between Janet Mills and Graham Platner, a race “that went off the rails very quickly” and is “incredibly important” for Senate control.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The first 90 meters... are all about environment.”
  — Jacob Robashkin, [02:12]
• "Trying to be affable and appealing to a broad cross section of Texans seems to work better than supercharging partisan affiliations." — Galen Druke, [10:33]
• "Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades."
  — Jacob Robashkin, quoting Team Crockett, [10:54]
• "John Cornyn, an incumbent at 27% in his own primary... That's deeply uncomfortable." — Jacob Robashkin, [17:55]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |-----------|-------| | 00:17 | Opening, Texas Senate primary setup | | 02:10 | What matters most in winning Texas-Senate (100m analogy) | | 06:53 | Talarico vs. Crockett: strategies, party factions | | 10:37 | Davis vs. O’Rourke: learning from past Democratic runs | | 13:06 | Republican meddling & “astroturf” operations | | 14:20 | Democratic appetite for “Trumpian” candidates | | 16:47 | Fresh polling & realignment of both primaries | | 17:54 | Robashkin’s takedown of Cornyn’s primary prospects | | 19:56 | Broader Senate landscape: ME, MI, GA, NC & more | | 21:06 | Maine’s Democratic Senate drama & preview interruption |

Tone & Takeaways

• The episode balances D.C. savvy and campaign math with wry skepticism about easy political narratives.
• The analysis underlines how much Texas’s fate hinges not on charismatic figures, but on environment, turnout, and which Republican emerges from a brutal primary.
• Both Crockett and Talarico have national profiles but face the daunting history of Democratic efforts in Texas—no easy lift, no matter the tactics.
• The conversation repeatedly returns to the unpredictability of “electability”—demonstrating humility, historical evidence, and the reminder that, in both parties, the "least electable" sometimes wins.

For more, the extended episode (premium subscribers) promises a deep dive into Maine, Michigan, and Georgia Senate fights, House primary dynamics, campaign finance, and recent election results in Tennessee and Miami.