GD POLITICS: Cancelvania Is Becoming A Swing State - Detailed Summary

Release Date: June 16, 2025
Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Nathaniel Rakich

1. Introduction to Key Topics

In the episode titled "Cancelvania Is Becoming A Swing State," hosts Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich dive deep into the evolving landscape of American politics, touching upon recent scandals, geopolitical tensions, political violence, and shifting public opinions. The discussion is enriched with data-driven insights and notable quotes, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current political climate.

2. Patti LuPone Scandal and Cancel Culture

The episode opens with Galen Druke bringing up the scandal involving Broadway star Patti LuPone. He states:

[00:00] Galen Druke: "I learned yesterday about the Patti LuPone scandal. Are you familiar with this?"

Nathaniel Rakich responds with curiosity about the nature of the scandal, leading Galen to elaborate on the incident where LuPone's comments about a predominantly Black cast in a neighboring show sparked backlash and accusations of racism. The conversation segues into the broader topic of cancel culture, humorously referred to as "Cancelvania," highlighting its transformation into a battleground involving both right and left-wing "cancelistas."

[01:30] Nathaniel Rakich: "And now it's becoming populated by, like, left wing cancelistas."

3. Current Political Events: Israel-Iran Conflict, Minnesota Legislative Attack, Trump Parade

Galen transitions the discussion to recent global and national events, including Israel's airstrikes on Iranian military targets aimed at preventing nuclear proliferation and the tragic attack in Minnesota where a man targeted Democratic lawmakers, resulting in fatalities and injuries.

[04:08] Galen Druke: "Last Thursday evening, Israel began bombing Iranian military targets with the goal of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons..."

Additionally, they discuss President Trump's military parade in Washington, D.C., held to mark the U.S. military's 250th birthday, coinciding with his own birthday. The parade was met with nationwide protests under the banner "No Kings," symbolizing resistance against Trump's influence.

4. Ten Year Anniversary of Trump's Political Entry

The hosts reflect on the ten-year milestone since Trump's entry into presidential politics, acknowledging his enduring impact on both major political parties.

[04:20] Galen Druke: "I think that he is, is one of the most important figures in this century's politics, for better or for worse."

5. Influence of Trump on Current Politics and Parties

Nathaniel explores Trump’s role in shaping the Democratic Party alongside the Republican Party, questioning whether Democrats can learn from Trump's populist strategies.

[05:26] Nathaniel Rakich: "It feels like he's shaped the Democratic Party almost as much as he's shaped the Republican Party."

They contemplate the future trajectory of both parties post-Trump, considering internal dynamics and potential shifts toward populism or anti-establishment sentiments.

6. Polling Data on Foreign Policy and Support for Israel

The conversation delves into polling data concerning American support for Israel in its conflict with Iran. Nathaniel cites a Ronald Reagan Institute poll:

[07:09] Nathaniel Rakich: "45% of those surveyed said they would support Israel conducting targeted airstrikes against Iran's nuclear facilities..."

Galen critiques the reliability of hypothetical polls and emphasizes the need for current data to gauge public sentiment accurately. They reference a Quinnipiac poll indicating a narrowing support margin for Israel, highlighting evolving public opinions.

[12:25] Nathaniel Rakich: "A new Quinnipiac poll showed Americans sided with the Israelis by a historically narrow margin, 37% to 32%."

7. Political Violence in the US: Data and Recent Events

The hosts address the alarming rise in political violence within the United States, referencing the recent Minnesota shooting and historical data indicating an increase in targeted attacks against public officials.

[17:04] Galen Druke: "Support for political violence is still very low and that is reason for optimism... We are in an era of political violence in the United States."

They discuss studies from Reuters and Princeton University that track incidents of political violence and the growing mistrust between protesters and law enforcement, noting a significant rise in threats against public officials.

[20:47] Nathaniel Rakich: "More than 600 incidents of threats and harassment against public officials in 2024, a 10% increase from the previous year."

8. Crowd Sizes and Public Opinion on Parades and Protests

Galen and Nathaniel analyze the contentious debate over crowd size estimates for political events, such as Trump's military parade and nationwide protests. They emphasize the methodological challenges in accurately assessing crowd sizes and caution against using these figures to infer public support.

[28:05] Galen Druke: "Crowd size estimates are just not very accurate. It's difficult to assess crowd sizes."

They cite academic research from Harvard's Crowd Counting Consortium and YouGov polls revealing that about 45% of adults approved of both the military parade and the protests, underscoring the country's deep divisions.

[31:56] Nathaniel Rakich: "About 45% of adults said that they approved of the gathering and about 40% said that they disapproved."

9. Listener Questions and Discussions

a. Virginia 11 Special Election

Listener Jeff inquires about the upcoming Virginia 11 special election and whether he should run for the vacant seat. Galen provides detailed information on the election date, nomination processes, and filing deadlines.

[37:04] Galen Druke: "The general election will be on September 9, and the parties will pick their nominees quite soon on June 28th."

b. Democrats Overperforming in 2026 Midterms

Matthew poses a hypothetical scenario where Democrats overperform in the 2026 midterms by the same margin as their recent special election successes. Galen analyzes potential Senate and House outcomes, cautioning against expecting such overperformance to persist due to varying electorates and candidate qualities.

[39:20] Galen Druke: "Democrats would end up with 55 Senate seats, which is quite difficult to imagine."

c. Immigration Policies and Public Opinion

Mark raises concerns about Trump's immigration policies, particularly actions like prohibiting foreign students from Harvard, and their impact on public perception. Galen discusses the complexity of immigration issues, highlighting differing aspects such as border security and human rights concerns.

[44:24] Nathaniel Rakich: "Trump is now net negative on immigration. According to Silver Bulletin, his approval there is net negative 2."

d. Voting Behavior Influenced by Societal Norms

Brian asks about research on how individuals' voting behaviors are influenced by the prevailing political climate of their locality versus their personal convictions. Nathaniel references studies from Brookings and the US National Election Studies, suggesting that geographic and community identities significantly impact voting patterns.

[54:39] Galen Druke: "I think it's a really interesting question... something I would love to see more studies of."

10. Conclusion

The episode wraps up with Galen and Nathaniel reiterating the importance of data-driven analysis in understanding political trends, while also acknowledging the qualitative aspects that numbers alone cannot capture. They encourage listeners to engage with the podcast, subscribe, and participate in the ongoing political discourse.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Galen Druke on Patti LuPone Scandal:
  "A few weeks ago, she gave an interview to the New Yorker, and apparently her show on Broadway shares a wall with another show that is a majority black cast. And she said that they were too loud."
  [00:10]

• Nathaniel Rakich on Cancel Culture:
  "I think we should, on substack, vote for the chancellor. Prime chancellor of Cancelvania."
  [00:52]

• Galen Druke on Trump's Influence:
  "He is one of the most important figures in this century's politics, for better or for worse."
  [04:35]

• Nathaniel Rakich on Political Violence:
  "Support for political violence is still very low and that is reason for optimism."
  [17:04]

• Galen Druke on Crowd Sizes:
  "Crowd size estimates are just not very accurate. It's difficult to assess crowd sizes."
  [28:05]

• Nathaniel Rakich on Voting Behavior:
  "Geographically is once you get a sense that oh, I live in a Republican area or I live in a Democratic area, then it doesn't just become something that you sort of chat about at the kitchen table, it becomes a part of your community's identity."
  [56:21]

This episode of GD Politics offers a multifaceted exploration of contemporary political issues, blending hard data with insightful analysis. Galen and Nathaniel provide listeners with the tools to navigate the complexities of modern politics, emphasizing the importance of both quantitative and qualitative perspectives.