GD POLITICS Podcast Summary

Episode: Celebrity Politicians, Dummymandering, And The Texas Primary
Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Lenny Brauner (Data Scientist, The Washington Post)
Date: December 1, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode is a lively, in-depth “mailbag” special, with Galen Druke and recurring guest Lenny Brauner answering an array of listener-submitted questions. The episode balances humor and data-driven analysis as topics range from celebrity influence in politics, prospective election reforms, the Texas GOP Senate primary, redistricting/gerrymandering, the viability of economic populism, and the evolving partisan landscape in American politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ranked Choice Voting in Democratic Presidential Primaries (00:51–07:50)

• Listener Question: Should Democrats adopt ranked choice voting (RCV) for primaries?
• Galen’s Introduction: RCV (aka instant runoff) is under consideration for 2028, but would require national and state party buy-in and possibly legal changes.
• Lenny’s Take:
  • Election data nerds care a lot about RCV, contested conventions, and redistricting, “but I just somehow can’t get that excited about [RCV].” (04:00)
  • RCV could theoretically create broader support for primary winners, encourage coalition building, and possibly shorten the primary.
  • May lessen the chance of “clown car” races extending endlessly but, per past cycles, “we sort of knew who the winner was earlier, who will inevitably be the winner.” (06:23)
• Memorable Quote:
  • Lenny: “Democrats do…allocate the delegates proportionately rather than winner takes all... to allow their candidates to build a broader base of support... ranked choice voting…is supposed to have the same effect.” (06:23)

2. The Power (and Limits) of Celebrity in US Politics (07:50–14:37)

• Listener Daniel’s Theory: Celebrity status is underrated, and maybe someone like Tyler Perry could easily win the presidency.
• Historical Rundown:
  • Success stories: Ronald Reagan, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jesse Ventura, Al Franken.
  • Failures: Clay Aiken, Herschel Walker, Kanye West, Mehmet Oz, Andrew Yang, Caitlyn Jenner.
• Data Drop: Tyler Perry ranks #233 for US fame (YouGov); most famous are Donald Trump, Brad Pitt, Morgan Freeman, Taylor Swift, Tom Cruise, Elon Musk, Obama, Bill Clinton.
• Critical Analysis:
  • Lenny: “You have to be famous to be able to win a presidential primary... celebrities who are already famous have an advantage... to at least polling well... But they obviously have to face both their opponents... and voters during the primaries.” (13:08)
  • Galen: US presidential politics pushes politicians to develop a “cult of personality”—commodity in the American system, less so in parliamentary ones.
• Memorable Quote:
  • Lenny: “I mean, [Morgan Freeman] has played the president in some movies... so yes, sure, why not?” (11:43)

3. Voter Expectations and Trump’s 2024/2025 Economic Messaging (14:37–19:21)

• Hypothetical: If Trump ran on modest promises instead of grandiose economic fixes, would it have changed 2025’s outcomes?
• Lenny’s Thought: Marginal, if any, effect. Voters are “baked in” to expecting change by electing a non-incumbent, regardless of campaign promises.
• Galen’s View: “I don't think it matters at all…Americans get a sense…that electing somebody different…is going to be a change…They were voting on the record they knew.”
• Economics Perspective: It’s the direction of the data, not absolutes (e.g., whether inflation is falling or rising).
• Notable Exchange:
  • Galen: “I don't think that voters thought that Trump had special levers he could pull that would suddenly fix everything.” (16:09)
  • Lenny: “I think in reality, you're right... most people, I think, were just thinking what the first Trump administration was like and wanted something different.” (17:50)

4. The Texas GOP Senate Primary: The Paxton-Cornyn-Hunt Showdown (21:21–27:53)

• Background:
  • Texas’s March 2026 GOP Senate primary pits incumbent John Cornyn, scandal-plagued Ken Paxton, and newcomer Wesley Hunt against each other.
  • Listener asks about the effect of Paxton’s divorce news.
• Polling Data:
  • Paxton’s polling has dropped 5–10 pts (possibly due to divorce, but many confounding variables).
  • Hunt’s entry stirred uncertainty—polling is fluid.
  • No one is running away with the lead; high undecideds; possible runoff likely.
  • Money and endorsements (Trump’s & Cruz’s inaction) are major X-factors.
• Memorable Insight:
  • Lenny: “It would obviously be...quite embarrassing for John Cornyn and Senate Republicans broadly if he doesn't make it into the runoff...which is definitely a possibility.” (24:16)
• Financial Arms Race:
  • Galen notes over $50M already spent; Cornyn has more cash-on-hand, but Paxton isn’t underfunded.
• Ted Cruz’s Silence: Noted as strategic, perhaps for his own 2028 ambitions.

5. The Viability of Roy Cooper & Andy Beshear as National Candidates (27:53–34:51)

• Roy Cooper Hypotheticals:
  • If not running for Senate, would Cooper have a shot as a 2028 presidential hopeful?
  • Lenny: If Cooper wins his Senate seat, nothing stops him from running for president. But he shows no signs of interest; low national name ID.
• Comparison: Andy Beshear (KY Governor) vs. Cooper (NC):
  • Beshear is more overtly angling for a national run.
• Listener Fantasies:
  • Some want Beshear to run for Senate as an Independent; Lenny finds that implausible due to Kentucky’s partisanship at the Senate race level; Beshear’s known Democratic label makes a “centrist indie” run inauthentic.
• Memorable Quote:
  • Lenny: “I think Andy Bashir would have a much harder time saying explicitly that he hasn't decided yet who he would vote for for majority leader in the Senate, because he has been the Democratic, you know, Governor of the state in such recent history.” (34:23)

6. Redistricting and Gerrymandering in Utah & Texas; Dummymandering Risks (35:34–42:46)

• Utah Redistricting:
  • Multiple court rulings, with the possibility of Democrats gaining one “safe” district in otherwise solid GOP territory.
  • Big national effect? Not unless it’s a razor-tight House.
• “Dummymandering” Question:
  • Adam asks if aggressively red districts diluted just enough (e.g., turning “safe” R+30 districts into R+15) could create vulnerability in blue-wave years.
  • Lenny: “People making maps have got better at avoiding this...but you’d need a D+13 or D+18 environment for this to really backfire.”
  • Galen: “In a situation like that...does it even matter anymore?”
  • Lenny: “No, not really; they’ll have won a very large majority.” (42:16)

7. Supreme Court, Voting Rights Act & Democratic “Lockout” Fears (42:46–48:00)

• If Section 2 of the VRA is overturned:
  • NYT’s Nate Cohn: “Democrats would have to win by 5-6 points nationally to get a House majority,” up from the current 1.3-point margin.
• What happens if a party is structurally “locked out”?
  • Galen: “History shows parties adapt to the rules. If Democrats are locked out, their strategies will change. The game will still be competitive.”
  • Lenny: “Parties adjust... that's what we saw Republicans do with Donald Trump after years of fearing permanent Democratic majorities.”
• Memorable Quotes:
  • Galen: “I reject the idea of being locked out of power. It's just not playing the game competitively the way it was designed.” (45:34)
  • Lenny: “You can interpret the Donald Trump takeover of the Republican Party as the party adjusting to a scenario in which they feel like they are locked out of power.” (48:00)

8. Does Economic Populism Work for Democrats Where Social Progressivism Fails? (50:00–55:53)

• Listener Ben’s Longform Question: Is the underperformance of “social progressives” predictive for “economic populists”? Can economic populists succeed in Ohio, PA, MI, etc., by focusing on kitchen-table issues and avoiding culture wars?
• Lenny:
  • Directly: “No, I don’t think the past underperformance of social progressives is truly useful in predicting the success of the new economic populists… Let's see how they do in elections first.”
  • Warns: Avoiding culture wars is hard now; economic leftism is not automatically a winner if candidates still hold polarizing social views.
  • Internationally, left parties don’t succeed on economic populism alone if not also seen as moderate/serious on culture.
• Galen: NY polling and recent experiments (via Patrick Ruffini/Echelon polling) demonstrate that “culture war moderation” still benefits moderate Dems more than economic populists who ignore cultural issues. Some populist policy is popular, but hard-line stances or ignoring social issues doesn’t solve electability.
• Memorable Quotes:
  • Lenny: “The answer is no, I don't think the past underperformance of social progressives is truly predictive... before we can say anything, I want to see how [populists] do in elections.” (51:41)
  • Galen: “They don't tend to perform nearly as well as...Democrats who take strong populist positions and break with the social cultural issues.” (54:23)

9. Lighter Fare: Favorite Election Night Snacks (56:06–57:42)

• Lenny: “Chocolate-covered peanut butter cups… my go-to snack…in particular on election night.” (56:06)
• Galen: “My favorite election night snack is wine… Other than that, I would say the key is snack.” (56:25)
• Both admit during intense election nights, adrenaline is more filling than food.

Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• “I, I, I, have the memory of a goldfish.” — Lenny (11:33), in a roundabout about America’s most famous people.
• “I don't think that voters thought that Trump had special levers he could pull that would suddenly fix everything.” — Galen (16:09)
• “Parties adjust in order to win back or win majorities based on the rules.” – Lenny (46:07)
• “If asked to serve, I will serve...” — Galen, joking on presidential ambitions (32:18)

Noteworthy Segments & Timestamps

• Ranked Choice Voting in Dem Primaries: 00:51–07:50
• Celebrity & Politics: 07:50–14:37
• Texas Senate Primary Analysis: 21:21–27:53
• Democratic 'Lockout' Fears: 42:46–48:00
• Economic Populism vs. Social Progressivism: 50:00–55:53

Tone and Style

The conversation is witty, affably nerdy, and conversational, peppered with data and election trivia. Galen and Lenny riff with good humor but stay grounded in evidence and historical context, making the discussion accessible while remaining substantive.

For more, or to send in your own questions, visit gdpolitics.com.