GD POLITICS PODCAST: Democrats' Bid To Unseat Susan Collins Takes Shape

Host: Galen Druke
Guests: Leah Scarna (AP Reporter), Jeffrey Skelly (Chief Elections Analyst, Decision Desk HQ)
Date: October 20, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dissects the developing 2026 Maine Senate race, focusing on the Democratic efforts to challenge longtime Republican incumbent Susan Collins. The panel discusses the primary battle between Janet Mills and Graham Platner, challenges surrounding candidate vulnerabilities, and what it means for the Democratic Party’s direction. The show also covers consequential Supreme Court deliberations over the Voting Rights Act, updates on key 2025 elections, and highlights from some notably quirky recent debates.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Maine: The Fight To Unseat Susan Collins

How Vulnerable is Susan Collins?

• Leah Scarna:
  • “She’s vulnerable and never count out Susan Collins.” (03:29)
  • Collins' previous win: almost 9 points, but just over the crucial 50% threshold in a ranked-choice contest.
  • Maine is a reliably Democratic state at the presidential level, making this seat a top Democratic target.
• Jeffrey Skelly:
  • Approval ratings for Collins have dipped into negative territory.
  • Historical data: Since 1994, when the president's party defends a seat in a state the opposition carried by at least 5 points, two-thirds of those seats flip.
  • “For Democrats, at the end of the day, getting a two term governor who has won statewide is a pretty good recruit. That’s Janet Mills…but there are questions…because of her age and what's going on with the Democratic primary.” (06:50)

Why Janet Mills? What About Her Age?

• Mills would be 79 upon being sworn in—the oldest freshman senator in history.
• Leah Scarna:
  • Democrats value known quantities: “People who are looking at comparing a Janet Mills … had just way more information about Janet Mills, including the negative. And we've seen Democrats get burnt by that before. I’m thinking of the North Carolina senate race in 2020. (07:22)
  • Age question may loom larger post-Biden era, especially given how age factored into Biden’s withdrawal.
• Jeffrey Skelly:
  • Mills immediately stands out due to her history of winning statewide in a state with few such Democrats.

Why Not Jared Golden or Other State Democrats?

• Jeffrey Skelly:
  • Golden’s professional relationship with Collins is a complicating factor (10:13).
  • Maine lacks other well-known, seasoned statewide Democratic officeholders.

Susan Collins: The Formidable Incumbent

• Has “been formidable in a way that I think is really hard to compare to any other…incumbent senator.” (13:27, B)
• Jeffrey Skelly:
  • She’s never had to run in a truly hostile midterm climate for her party; 2026 could be her first.

2. Graham Platner: Populist Challenger Consumed by Controversy

Platner’s Profile

• Political outsider: former Marine, oyster farmer, backed by Bernie Sanders and progressives.
• The contest initially appeared as a “battle for the soul of the party.” (04:54, A)

The Reddit Comments Scandal

• Galen Druke:
  • Comments range from racially and sexually insensitive posts to leftist slogans (“all cops bastards”), to advocating civilian use of rifles (16:27).
• Platner’s defense: Attributed comments to a period of depression and PTSD after military service; claims he no longer holds those views.

Can Platner Still Be a Factor?

• Jeffrey Skelly:
  • “I think Mills was going to be tough to beat from the get go.…Primary voters tend to be older…Maine is the oldest state in the country.” (17:25)
  • Mills’ promise not to seek a second term may “take the age thing down a notch.”
• Leah Scarna:
  • Endorsements and fundraising matter, but any shifts in high-profile backing might doom him.
  • "If we start seeing high profile endorsers start walking away from him, that's usually a sign of a dwindling campaign." (18:45)
• Polling Insight:
  • Before the scandal: Mills led Collins by 5, Platner and Collins were tied (Zenith Research).
  • “Informed ballot” polling from a progressive-aligned firm suggests Platner could outperform Mills, but the panel is skeptical of its objectivity and timing. (23:37–26:49)

3. Key Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Democratic calculus:
  • “I don’t know if people are going to want to vote for…the oldest senator ever. But Janet Mills is still the governor. I think she always had a real advantage.” – Leah Scarna (19:27)
• On “informed ballot” polling:
  • “The informed ballot, for our purposes, bad data… Don’t use this as a crystal ball, obviously.” – Leah Scarna (23:41)
  • “If you want a realistic picture…you need the negatives as well. You can’t just give the positives.” – Galen Druke (24:49)
• On political unknowns:
  • “Something unlikely happened… This is like beyond political analysis. Isn’t it just like human being, you know, universe vibes.” – Leah Scarna (28:06)

4. Voting Rights Act at the Supreme Court

(Segments: 30:43–43:40)

What’s At Stake?

• Section 2 requires states to create majority-minority districts where possible; potential rollback could gut the creation of “opportunity” districts for minority candidates.
• Jeffrey Skelly:
  • "If Section Two no longer had application...those districts would almost certainly be destroyed basically in redraws, because those are Democratic leaning seats and Republicans control redistricting." (33:44)
  • Louisiana is a bellwether; the outcome here may set a precedent for other Deep South states.

Expected Consequences

• Nate Cohn, NYT (quote read by Druke at 39:28):
  • Without Section 2, Republicans could eliminate upwards of a dozen Democratic seats in the South, fundamentally undermining House competitiveness.
• Jeffrey Skelly:
  • "The median seat is actually one that Trump won by, like, seven percentage points instead of three... requiring [Democrats] to win the popular vote by a much more substantial margin." (41:30)

5. Election 2025 Updates

Texas’ 18th Congressional District (44:36)

• Houston-based special election; Democratic, outcome to indicate party's future generational direction.

New Jersey’s Governor’s Race (46:11)

• Jeffrey Skelly:
  • Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by ~5 points.
  • “That’s not absolutely the most comfortable lead…It also could be closer than it looks.”
  • If Ciattarelli can unite Trump and his own 2021 voters, he may have a narrow path.

New York City Mayoral Debate (48:48)

• Contenders: Zoran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, Curtis Sliwa.
• Panel discusses debate’s quirky questions (“What’s your bodega order?”) and whether such offbeat topics illuminate candidates’ connection to everyday constituents.
• Leah Scarna:
  • “I get a little stressed out when they ask how much stuff costs. …I should not be, you know, a mayoral candidate.”
• Race Update: Mamdani leads, Cuomo second, Sliwa holds but resists pressure to drop out.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• “She’s vulnerable and never count out Susan Collins. It’s a tough time to be running as a Republican statewide in Maine.” – Leah Scarna (03:29)
• “All those [midterm losses] were very close states where it was possible to get a split ticket outcome...Maine is more Democratic leaning.” – Jeffrey Skelly (04:33)
• “People who are looking at comparing a Janet Mills...have way more information about Janet Mills, including the negative. And we've seen Democrats get burnt by that before.” – Leah Scarna (07:22)
• “The Shelley Pingree point...she’s tried this [against Collins]—2002, she lost to Susan Collins. I think it’s really hard to recruit somebody to run against her.” – Leah Scarna (13:27)
• “Platner has responded that he was just back from Iraq and Afghanistan... PTSD...Those are not things that he believes anymore.” – Galen Druke (16:32)
• “Primary voters tend to be older...they tend to look more like Janet Mills. Older women are going to make up a majority of the primary electorate on the Democratic side.” – Jeffrey Skelly (17:25)
• “The informed ballot, for our purposes, bad data. If you are running a campaign and you are trying to figure out your messaging, that’s a great question to ask…but don’t use this as a crystal ball, obviously.” – Leah Scarna (23:41)
• “It is data in the sense that...potentially helpful information for the Platner campaign...but I don’t think it’s particularly meaningful at all when it comes to thinking about the actual general election result...” – Jeffrey Skelly (25:52)
• “If Section two no longer had application...those [majority black] districts would almost certainly be destroyed basically in redraws.” – Jeffrey Skelly (33:44)
• “Nate [Cohn] was pretty spot on...the end of section 2 in redistricting would...eliminate, you know, roughly a dozen seats—or could.” – Jeffrey Skelly (39:58)
• “It would be hard to use...any poll that’s a head to head of this race over a year out and call it good data.” – Leah Scarna (26:49)
• “[Debates] asked: What’s your bodega order?...Curtis Sliwa was like, ‘It is important that the mayor of New York shows up to every parade.’ And Mandani was like, ‘I'm not going to every parade.’” – Galen Druke & Leah Scarna (51:35-51:45)

Important Segments & Timestamps

| Segment | Topic | Timestamp | |---------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|--------------| | Maine Senate race intro | Druke lays out the stakes and players | 02:38–06:00 | | Collins’ vulnerability | Panel evaluates Collins’ position | 03:29–06:50 | | Janet Mills' candidacy | Age/strategy/electability discussed | 06:50–10:13 | | Why not Golden? | Golden’s ties to Collins, limitations | 09:59–13:27 | | Platner Reddit scandal | Impact and context | 16:27–17:46 | | “Battle for soul” debate | Platner vs. Mills in the primary | 14:54–20:40 | | Polling debate | Good data, bad data (Zenith poll analysis) | 23:37–26:49 | | Voting Rights Act segment | Origin, Section 2, Supreme Court case | 30:43–43:40 | | TX-18 special election | Why watch this Houston seat? | 44:36–45:49 | | NJ Governor’s race | Polling, candidate dynamics | 46:11–48:48 | | NY Mayoral debate | Quirky questions, current standings | 48:48–53:58 |

Summary Takeaways

• Maine’s 2026 Senate race is shaping up as a marquee national contest, with Democrats balancing a safe, experienced bet (Janet Mills) against a populist outsider (Graham Platner) whose campaign is now dogged by scandal.
• Vulnerabilities and strengths on all sides underscore broader debates within the Democratic party—age vs. change, electability vs. messaging.
• The Supreme Court’s consideration of the Voting Rights Act could profoundly impact minority representation and the partisan balance of the U.S. House.
• Polling and campaign data require careful scrutiny—a theme echoed in discussions about both Maine and broader election contexts.
• Recent election cycles and offbeat debates in places like NYC and NJ show the unpredictable, at times theatrical, currents in American politics.

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