GD Politics Podcast
Episode: Democrats Clash in Illinois, Crowd California, and Eye Iowa
Date: March 16, 2026
Host: Galen Druke
Guests: Lenny Brauner (Senior Data Scientist, Washington Post), Mary Radcliffe (Head of Research, 51)
Episode Overview
In this mailbag episode, Galen Druke and his guests tackle a broad range of listener questions covering ongoing and upcoming Democratic primaries, party consolidation, voter demographics, the impact of candidate apologies and pivots, and the undercurrents shaping the Democratic and Republican strategies heading into the 2026 midterms. The conversation is lively, packed with political humor, and enriched by each guest's data-driven insights.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The California Governor’s Race and the Top-Two System
(Starts ~04:00)
- Mailbag Question: "Could Democratic votes be so split in the California governor's race that two Republicans make it to the general election?"
- System Reminder: California’s "jungle primary" advances the top two vote-getters to the general, regardless of party.
Mary Radcliffe (04:15):
“I would tell Joe, yes, there is a chance that Democrats could be locked out...but I don't see it as super likely.”
- Hilton (Republican) is consolidating support, while Democratic votes remain divided among several candidates.
- Extraneous Republican candidates are polling ~5-10%; extraneous Democrats less than 20%.
- Polling depends on which candidates are included; there’s some variability.
Lenny Brauner (06:23):
“It's possible, but not super likely...I think Democrats will end up coalescing around, you know, three or four of these candidates, which should put at least one of them over the top.”
- Watch for movement later in March and early April—fundraising numbers, union endorsements, and new polling.
- The party failed to endorse at the state convention, causing some fragmentation.
Predictions (07:50):
- Lenny: “If I were to guess, I'd say Swalwell, like gun to my head.”
- Mary: “Swalwell or Steyer, I think, are the two that have the best opportunity here.”
2. Demographic Divides in the Texas Democratic Primary
(Starts ~08:05)
- Question Highlight: Performance breakdown among Talarico and Crockett across demographic lines.
Lenny Brauner (08:42):
“Talarico did better in whiter areas of Texas...He also won Hispanic voters, probably by less, interestingly enough...Crockett did better amongst black voters.”
- Talarico excelled in white liberal areas (e.g., Austin) and had solid support among Hispanic voters, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley and Houston.
- Crockett outperformed in regions with higher Black populations, such as East Texas.
Mary Radcliffe (12:18):
“Turnout in majority Latino counties was up around 37%...in non-majority Latino counties it was up around 33%.”
- Turnout increases among Latino-majority counties—a trend also seen in New Jersey's 2025 elections.
- However, these areas started with lower turnout, so percentage jumps may reflect a lower baseline.
Galen Druke (13:25):
“There are not big ideological differences between James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett...but clearly in this Democratic primary they did [vote along racial lines].”
- Identity politics—especially race—continue to matter in Democratic intraparty contests and may shape future nomination battles.
Lenny Brauner (14:25):
“To the degree that the deciding cleavage and the Republican primary is often education, the deciding cleavage on the Democratic side is often race and identity.”
3. Politicians and the Art of the Pivot
(Starts ~14:38)
- Listener Q: Do politicians benefit from apologizing or "flip-flopping"?
- Reference to Josh Barris’s argument about winning skeptics via apology.
Mary Radcliffe (15:06):
“Voters don’t trust politicians. That’s period, period...But maybe there’s some benefit for someone who’s relatively new on the scene.”
- Apologizing might be more effective for political newcomers (ex: Grant Platner in Maine).
- Less effective for established figures—voters may interpret it as insincere.
Galen Druke (16:25):
“Occam’s razor says, choose the more popular policy. If you’re on the wrong side of public opinion and you’re in a competitive race, maybe pivot. That takes its own kind of courage sometimes.”
- Authenticity is a performance. Politicians who perform authenticity well (Biden, Mamdani, Obama, Trump) are better able to survive or benefit from changing positions.
Lenny Brauner (18:31):
“Joe Biden...had the miraculous knack of always being in the center of the Democratic Party...He was probably particularly talented at this kind of game.”
- Not all politicians can do this well; Kamala Harris, for instance, does not “perform authenticity particularly well.”
On Mamdani’s Tactic (19:43):
“I don’t think Mamdani won over his skeptics by apologizing...The apologizing was for the media so they would stop haranguing him about these issues.”
- Apologies are often tactical, aimed at quieting controversy more than persuading skeptics.
Comparisons: Talarico vs. Mamdani (20:45):
- Talarico’s campaign is closely tied to his Christian pastor persona and progressive values. Unlike Mamdani, whose campaign avoided identity issues, Talarico faces them head-on, making "pivoting" harder.
On AOC’s Recent Pivot (21:29):
“I believe this past week AOC pivoted to a position of Medicare for all who want it...I tend to think that's not going to create problems for her and she's pivoting to a more popular position, and so that's probably good politics.”
4. Illinois’s 9th Congressional District and What’s Ahead
(22:14)
- The preview ends with a tease: the full episode would discuss Illinois’s 9th Democratic primary—described as "something of a civil war" for the party.
- Also flagged: projections for 2026 turnout, Iowa’s competitiveness, GOP strategies, Mamdani’s New York popularity, and speculation on third parties’ rise by 2040.
Memorable Quotes & Moments
- “I'm glad that my view on this is at the pulse of the people.”
— Lenny Brauner (00:32) [Discussing theme music, sets the light, humorous tone] - “The party has not really been able to sort of coalesce around candidates...which is what partially caused this situation.”
— Lenny Brauner (06:23) - "Politics is way more local in that part of the United States than in other parts of the United States."
— Lenny Brauner (12:00) [On Rio Grande Valley voting habits] - "Authenticity is still a performance. I kind of think Donald Trump performance of authenticity is also a performance."
— Galen Druke (17:23)
Notable Timestamps
- 04:00: Deep dive into the California governor’s race and prospects for Democratic consolidation
- 08:05: Discussion of Texas Democratic primary demographics and turnout trends
- 14:38: Analysis on apologies, pivoting, and authenticity in political campaigns
- 21:29: AOC’s Medicare-for-All pivot
- 22:14: Transition to Illinois’s 9th congressional district—full discussion available for subscribers
Conclusion
This episode delivers sharp, insightful, and often witty analysis of the Democratic Party’s current primary landscape, the mechanics of candidate viability, and the complexities of authenticity, apology, and political strategy. The hosts and guests use robust data and political experience to ground their discussion while never losing sight of the human—and sometimes theatrical—element of politics.
For more in-depth discussion about Illinois’s 9th, 2026 turnout projections, and more, listeners are directed to become paid subscribers at GDPolitics.com.