GD POLITICS – Does Zohran Mamdani Have A Majority Coalition?

Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Michael Lang (newsletter author, The Narrative Wars & Mamdani supporter)
Date: October 30, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the twists and turns of the 2025 New York City mayoral race, just six days before Election Day. Host Galen Druke and guest Michael Lang analyze the state of the contest between Democratic Socialist Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, ex-Governor Andrew Cuomo (running as an independent), and Republican Curtis Sliwa. They examine polling trends, shifts within various voting blocs, coalition-building, and what a majority win versus a plurality would mean for Mamdani’s mandate to govern.

Tone: Curious, rigorous, irreverently funny, and driven by a fascination with the dynamics of New York politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: A Wild Mayoral Race

• The incumbent, Eric Adams, dropped out amid scandals and endorsed Cuomo.
• Cuomo, also beset by scandal, loses the Democratic primary to Mamdani by 13 points, but continues as an independent.
• Curtis Sliwa, colorful Republican candidate, lags in the polls but adds comic relief and unpredictability.
• Democratic establishment figures (Hakeem Jeffries, Gov. Kathy Hochul) have reluctantly swung behind Mamdani, viewing his victory as inevitable.
  “Like just about everyone, [they decided] Madani will win the election and that they are better off [endorsing].” (A, 03:31)

2. Polling & Trends

• Current polling (via Decision Desk HQ): Mamdani leads Cuomo 45%-32%, Sliwa at 16%.
• Suffolk University poll shows tightening from a 20-point Mamdani lead last month to only 10 points this month.
• Quinnipiac poll matches new Suffolk numbers, suggesting Cuomo has consolidated support from Adams and peeled off some Republicans.
• Guest Michael Lang notes undercounting of young voters may mean Mamdani is consistently under-polled, as in the primary.
  • “Some of these polls were missing by 10, 20%. I don’t think it’ll be quite that bad. But even if they miss by 5 or 6%, that puts him over the 50% threshold.” (B, 08:17)
• Druke & Lang discuss whether Cuomo’s scandal baggage could mean some “shy Cuomo voters” are hiding from pollsters, but Lang contends Cuomo’s ceiling is low due to high unfavorability.
  • “Cuomo’s unfavorability is always like, it’s around 50%, it’s always over 50%. Like he’s been steadily underwater for a long time.” (B, 10:12)
• Turnout expected to be much higher than in the primary; up to 1.75 or 2 million.

3. Coalitions & Demographics

• Lang’s analysis divides the city into memorable “corridors”:

  • “Commie Corridor” (young, college-educated, walkable, gentrified neighborhoods): core of Mamdani’s support, notably Brooklyn and Queens.
  • Capitalist Corridor: very wealthy, establishment neighborhoods, leery of Mamdani mainly over Israel and business policy; wield influence through money and media.
  • Outer Borough Middle-Class (esp. Black & Hispanic neighborhoods): Cuomo stronghold in primary, but Mamdani gaining due to building new relationships.
  • White Working-Class (“Archie Bunker’s Descendants”): Staten Island, Southern Brooklyn—lean Sliwa/Trump, skeptical of Mamdani.
  • Asian & Hispanic Working-Class: Noted recent rightward shift—uncertain turnout, key for measuring Democratic erosion.
    • “There are no blocks in the whole country that saw shifts like that, that saw such a hemorrhaging of support and they’re all next to one another.” (B, 42:56)

• Electorate likely to skew whiter and older than NYC’s population due to citizenship and turnout patterns.

4. Significance of a “Majority” Win

• Symbolic & Practical Impact:
  • Mamdani crossing 50% is vital for shutting down claims of being a “loud minority” winner.
    • “To be able to broadcast affirmatively that you have won a majority of the city’s voters immediately shuts down any narrative...” (B, 24:33)
  • Majority would bolster his post-election clout—critical for getting institutional support, influencing City Council Speaker election, and pressing for legislative priorities with Gov. Hochul and Albany.
  • “He needs comparable momentum to come from the general election because there are going to be a very well funded and influential group set who are always going to be kind of organizing against him when he’s in office.” (B, 25:16)

5. The Issues: What Drives Voters Now

• The campaign is dominated by cost of living (housing, wages, rents) rather than the cultural conflict issues typical in recent national Democratic debates.
  • “He didn’t run on police reform, ran on addressing the cost of living.” (B, 33:19)
• Mamdani has moderated stances on controversial issues: softening from “defund the police” to supporting community policing, and distancing from earlier “globalize the intifada” rhetoric.
  • “He’s said that he regrets any suggestion of globalize the intifada comments... he’s just said straight up, like, that was a different context. I’ve changed my mind.” (C, 30:21)
• Unlike other progressives, Mamdani and similar candidates appear to be dropping or muting polarizing cultural stances, but doubling down on economic left populism.

6. Debate Moments & Ballot Initiatives

• Notable moment: Mamdani refused to stake out a clear position on pro-housing “City of Yes” ballot measures, apparently to avoid alienating City Council allies ahead of speaker votes.
  • “The anti politician looked like a politician trying to triangulate his answer...Mamdani kind of needs to keep them on his good side, not only because they're the body that he works with, but because we’ve got this speaker’s election coming up...” (B, 36:07)
• Cuomo and Sliwa quickly stated their positions (Cuomo: yes; Sliwa: no), leading to a “lively moment” and ad fodder for Cuomo PACs.

7. Turnout, Voting Patterns, and Final Predictions

• Early vote seems tilted toward rich, white, car-owning neighborhoods (good for Cuomo), but Lang predicts late surge from Mamdani’s base—young, working-class, and minority voters.
• “With Halloween on Friday, New York City Marathon on Sunday ... I think you will see very large numbers of the Mamdani coalition coming home this weekend.” (B, 40:49)
• Lang thinks Mamdani has a “high single digit” early lead and expects him to reach a majority, noting polls may still be undercounting key groups.
  • “You still put a gun to my head, I still think he gets it.” (B, 41:00)
• Biggest variable for election night: whether Mamdani can stop the Democratic bleeding in Hispanic and Asian, especially Asian, neighborhoods that have shifted hard right in recent years.
  • “Other than him getting the majority, the most important thing to me will be how he does in a lot of the neighborhoods that the Democratic Party has hemorrhaged support in.” (B, 42:34)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Curtis Sliwa:
  “You have to respect Curtis Sliwa, for sure ... his jihad rant in the debate was probably not great, but ... he gave an opening statement that would be almost indistinguishable from a Dan Osborne or a Bernie Sanders.” (B, 05:01) Host’s quip: “It was like, what’s your favorite bodega order? He’s like, well, let me tell you about the time I was shot five times.” (A, 05:52)

• On Undercounting Young Voters:
  “Not all of these general election polls are still significantly underweighing younger voters...in the general election in New York City last year, 51% of the electorate was under 50. And then in some of these polls...they have under 50 voters at like 33%.” (B, 13:59)

• On Breaking Down NYC’s Coalitions:
  “It’s cliche to say, but New York City has just about every demographic you can imagine ... it’s incredible.” (C & B, 16:05)

• On Majority vs. Plurality:
  “I don’t think there will be much difference between 49.5%, 50.5%, but I think symbolically...to be able to broadcast affirmatively that you have won a majority of the city’s voters immediately shuts down any narrative.” (B, 24:33)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:17] – Episode introduction and theme
• [01:58] – Recap of primary battle: Adams drops out, Cuomo loses to Mamdani, Sliwa’s outsider role
• [06:05] – Polling snapshot and tightening trends
• [08:44] – Underpolling Mamdani? Debating polling bias and likely voter models
• [15:32] – Demographic deep dive: “Commie Corridor,” “Capitalist Corridor,” outer boroughs, and voting blocs
• [21:12] – Ethnic and age breakdowns; turnout expectations
• [24:33] – Symbolic importance of a majority, consequences for governing
• [27:55] – How the issues have shifted: cost of living ascendant
• [30:18] – Mamdani moderates on police, Israel, and controversial positions
• [34:32] – Handling of ballot initiatives; Mamdani’s triangulation moment
• [38:52] – Early vote patterns and what they mean for each campaign
• [40:59] – Will Mamdani reach 50%? Predictions and poll distrust
• [42:34] – On election night, which neighborhoods’ margins matter most

Summary Takeaways

• Mamdani is favored to win but whether he crosses the 50% line will have both symbolic and practical implications for his power to govern.
• The race is a microcosm of national Democratic tensions: economic populism on the rise, careful avoidance of divisive cultural topics, and sharp demographic shifts within the electorate.
• Guest Michael Lang repeatedly emphasizes that expectations should be tempered by systematic polling errors—especially underestimating young, diverse voter turnout.
• The crucial election night data point will be whether Democrats can stop or reverse their demographic hemorrhaging in Hispanic and Asian neighborhoods.

For full context and more election week coverage, visit GD Politics