C (2:45)

Came to the fore.

A (2:46)

But while Mamdani has struggled to reach 50% support in the polls, anti Mamdani forces haven't had much luck either. The scandals and lack of charisma that plagued Cuomo in the primary haven't gone away. Curtis Sliwa, the perhaps you could say oddball Republican candidate who's been a debate favorite for his old school New York zingers, has wallowed in the teens, though, telling the press he'd only drop out if a Mack truck hit him and he couldn't be resuscitated in the icu. While incumbent Mayor Eric Adams did drop out after polling in the high single digits, his endorsement of Cuomo hasn't made up the difference for him. Throughout all of this, Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries and New York Governor Kathy Hochul have concluded, like just about everyone, that Madani will win the election and that they are better off Endorsing a similar conclusion about the inevitability of Mamdani from business leaders, online betters and political analysts alike hasn't stopped the candidates from a.

C (3:45)

Brawl down the final stretch.

A (3:47)

For my part, I have spent more than one November in Wisconsin, and the political ads in the city right now are next level. So that gets us to where we are today and to elaborate much, much more. Joining me is Michael Lang, the author of the newsletter the Narrative Wars. He's taken on the role of New York City data walk extraordinaire this mayoral cycle. So, M. Michael, welcome to the podcast.

B (4:09)

Well, after an introduction like that, I mean, how can I not be excited to be on the podcast with you? Thank you for having me.

C (4:16)

Well, I'm very excited to have you.

A (4:18)

I'll say for the sake of transparency.

C (4:19)

Here that you are a Mamdani supporter.

A (4:22)

Though for our purposes, you have also a deep knowledge of New York City.

C (4:26)

And its elections data, and that's what we're going to be focusing on primarily here. So.

A (4:30)

Sound like a deal?

B (4:31)

Sounds like a deal. I'm. I'm sure that there might be three listeners who throughout this whole time thought that I might have been a closeted Cuomo supporter. So they might, they might be devastated to hear that.

C (4:42)

Right? You know, you gotta stay transparent.

B (4:44)

Michael Lange, DSA Member Supports Andrew Cuomo yeah.

A (4:49)

What about Curtis Sliwa? You know, he's been getting some love.

C (4:51)

From all different corners of the Internet.

B (4:53)

You know, I mean, I. I've enjoyed the Curtis Lewa experience.

A (4:58)

As a lifelong New Yorker, you have.

C (4:59)

To respect Curtis Lewa for sure.

B (5:01)

I mean, well, to a certain extent. I think he's, you know, his, his jihad rant in the debate was probably not great, but it is, it is a fascinating thing though. You know, I've spoken with a lot of people about Andrew Cuomo trying to take Republican votes away from Curtis Lewa. It's very interesting how the Democrat and the Republican nominee, they almost equally rail against the billionaire class and we're Andrew Cuomo. That is like, you know, the kind of the genesis of his, of his coalition and support. Curtis Lewitt. At the debate last week, he gave an opening statement that would be almost indistinguishable from a Dan Osborne or a Bernie Sanders. So, you know, I outer borough populist for sure.

A (5:44)

He knows how to take a question.

C (5:45)

About just about anything and turn it into the most like New York mad lib you've ever heard.

A (5:52)

It was like, what's your favorite bodega order? He's like, well, let me tell you about the time I was shot five times in the back of a cabin.

C (5:58)

He's, he's lived the life of a New Yorker. But anyway, Michael, I want to get to the polls.

B (6:02)

As you should.

C (6:02)

So the current average according to Decision.

A (6:05)

Desk HQ shows Mamdani with a 14.

C (6:08)

Point lead over Cuomo, 45 to 32%. Curtis Lewa has 16% support.

A (6:15)

Now, a recent poll from Suffolk University caught folks attention because it showed Mamdani's lead over Cuomo falling from a 20 point lead last month to, to a.

C (6:25)

10 point lead this month.

A (6:27)

We'd caution, of course, against putting too much stock in one specific poll, but it's valuable to compare the trend line for a single poll because the methodology of a single poll will usually remain.

C (6:39)

Constant throughout a cycle.

A (6:40)

So do we have any broader evidence of trend lines moving in Cuomo's favor?

B (6:47)

At 2:00 today, Quinnipiac released a poll that was almost identical to Suffolk in terms of their top line. Numbers, cross tabs and whatnot. Is different, I think. I mean, since Eric Adams dropped out a couple weeks ago, the incumbent mayor, most of his support has transferred to Andrew Cuomo. And I think depending on kind of which survey you consult, Cuomo is eating slowly, gradually. I thought this would happen weeks ago. It's happening very late, kind of eating into some of Curtis Lewis Republican support, whittling it down, casting him as a third party spoiler.

A (7:23)

Although I will say in that Suffolk.

C (7:24)

University poll, Curtis Lewis numbers went up like slightly. I mean, from you know, 9% to 11% or something like that.

A (7:31)

But it was basically all of Eric.

C (7:33)

Adams support and then some undecideds who seem to go to Cuomo.

B (7:36)

Right. I should say that maybe instead of whittling down, Curtis Lee was lead. It's just Cuomo is earning a healthy chunk of Republican voters while kind of holding on to one third of, of Democrats. You know, Cuomo's kind of walking the tightrope in terms of appealing to, you know, the, these very different coalition tension points to try and thread through a victory here. I would say that the race still has not changed very much. It'll be interesting to see how some more surveys in the next couple days kind of rate it. Mamdani is basically polled very consistently in the mid to high 40s and I would say genuinely that the polls in the primary undercounted him significantly. I don't think that we'll get as egregious of an undercount. Some of these polls were missing by 10, 20%. I don't think it'll be quite that bad. But even if they miss by 5 or 6%, that puts him over the 50% threshold. And I think some of the mistakes that were made in terms of under sampling younger voters. Right. A huge part of his coalition are regrettably being made again has also, you know, he, he also.

A (8:44)

Wait, I'm curious why you think that. Because you could make the opposite argument.

C (8:49)

Which is like Cuomo is a scandal plagued candidate and people may not want to admit that they support Andrew Cuomo. I mean, we have seen this in other elections where the scandal plagued can't. I mean, we were just talking about on this podcast earlier this week that Jay Jones. In Virginia, you see a weird number of people telling pollsters they have both.

A (9:10)

Already voted and are undecided on the.

C (9:12)

AG race in Virginia. Basically, yes, I have voted. And girl, I am not telling you who I voted for for ag.

A (9:20)

And so maybe folks could feel similarly.

C (9:23)

About a scandal plagued Cuomo. Like they're gonna vote for Cuomo, but they don't wanna tell a pollster that.

A (9:28)

I mean, I wonder if the electorate.

C (9:29)

Is so different in a general election where, you know, you can't live in New York City and not know that there's a mayoral election going on. Whereas the primary was at the beginning of the summer, folks weren't paying all that much attention. Low turnout, but like differential turnout in terms of a lot of young people showing up, the young part of the electorate significantly while the rest of the electorate remain stagnant. Like, could you make the opposite case here?

B (9:52)

I definitely think you can credibly, I mean, there were 1.07 million people voted in the Democratic primary. I think in the general election we could see upwards of 2 million. 2 million is a stretch. I think I would put it more at 1.75 or 1.8. But we could really push the bounds of, of what we've seen in terms of mayoral turnout in the last 32 years. What I would say though is that for as much as people talk about Mamdani ceiling, Andrew Cuomo, as was shown in the primary, does have a very real ceiling of support. Cuomo's unfavorability is always like, it's around 50%, it's always over 50%. Like he, he's been steadily underwater for, for a long time. And the thesis to beating him in the primary was like, hey, if it is a traditional New York City electorate, it's going to be tough to kind of overcome some of his institutional advantages. But if you can change the electorate, expand it, mold it to you, and by doing so, increase turnout, that is kind of how you beat him. So I look at this general, and if, if we're predicted to get an extra couple hundred thousand votes coupled with one year after Trump was reelected, things like that, I don't see that as a super favorable equation for him because I do think he is currently getting a bit of a bump from, you know, I would say maybe some of the fear mongering with respect to Mamdani's faith and whatnot, but that alone won't be enough unless Cuomo can get a lot of Republican voters to abandon Curtis Lewa and support him and win a significant number of black and Hispanic Democrats.

C (11:38)

Right now, the betting markets suggest that John Mamdani has close to a 90% chance of winning. I think it's like 87% or 88% depending on if you look at Polymarket or Kelshi or whatnot.

A (11:49)

But do you think in a two.

C (11:51)

Way race it would be highly competitive?

B (11:53)

Oh, extreme. It would be extremely competitive. If it genuinely was a two person race, I think there would be $100 million of outside spending put forth against Mandani. I think it would be extremely close. I think every poll would be like 44, 42. I would still just tap Mandani with a bit of an edge in this hypothetical just because again, I think his ceiling is higher than Cuomo's just in terms of the amount of people who like him and would be motivated enough to vote for him. But it would be, that would be really fascinating. We were we did not get that, but I think it would be extremely close.

C (12:30)

We have seen polls that have pitted the two against each other where Mamdani has led by say 4 percentage points or something like that. Obviously, because that's such a hypothetical, we don't know what like the ad spending environment would look like in a two person race or the likes. And so it's hard to say. But yes, a very close race.

B (12:48)

And I am a notorious pollster hater a little bit. I remember someone who is a pollster explained to me, they were like, I was like, how do they know who's gonna vote? Like, what are they basing it off of? They're like, oh, well, they're just guessing. And I'm like, I can just guess, like, what makes the, you know. So it was very illuminating to kind of learn some of these things. I will say as someone who.

A (13:09)

Well, Michael, that's not entirely fair.

C (13:11)

Oftentimes pollsters ask people, are you going to vote?

A (13:15)

And to a certain extent you have.

C (13:16)

To trust people to tell you if they are going to vote.

A (13:19)

But the way you can sometimes give.

C (13:20)

People give people a spectrum of like.

A (13:23)

I, I might vote, I'll probably vote.

C (13:26)

I'm almost certainly going to vote, or I'm certainly going to vote, or I've already voted. And then in your likely voter model, you just put the already voted, almost certain to vote, or very likely to vote or something like that.

B (13:37)

But like the weight. Sorry, I was referring more to like how they weigh it, which I remember in the primary I was looking at how they were weighing the boroughs, the races, and I was like, oh, this is not what I know.

A (13:49)

I think that's fair.

C (13:49)

Have you seen waiting in general election polls that is in conflict with what you expect the electorate to look like?

B (13:59)

Some. Not all of these general election polls are still significantly underweighing younger voters.

A (14:06)

Interesting.

B (14:06)

Yeah. So for context, right, you don't even have to base it off of the Mamdani surge in the primary. In the general election in New York city last year, 51% of the electorate was under 50. And then in some of these polls that are coming out, they have under 50 voters at like 33%. And I'm like, well, if it's blue wave, Trump 2.0 college educated turnout plus Mamdani, you're not going to have under 50s at such a low percentage of the electorate when they were much higher one year ago without surrounding the ballot. So I found some of this pretty interesting. And also for, you know, we're discussing the hypothetical one on one race that never materialized. I'm someone who sings Zoran's praises every day. I think he's an excellent campaigner who's brought a lot of people into the political process and I think every Democrat in the country can learn one thing from him. But he also has had excellent fortune in going up against some of the most incompetent, cartoon level incompetent politicians that we've seen. And for as much as the Mamdani coalition is really built around demographics and groups of people in the city whose populations are growing. Right. It's not only here to stay, but growing by the day, I think that that helps it. But if he like had to run this race against like Wes Moore, that would have been a lot harder.

C (15:32)

To that end, let's talk a little bit about what the New York City electorate is going to look like. You just published a piece going neighborhood by neighborhood, giving nicknames to every part of the city, like, you know, the Commie Corridor, which you made famous during the primary. But there's also the capitalists and the sort of borderlands of the Commie Corridor. And there's the swing vote and there's the forgotten people and, and you go through all of it and look, it's cliche to say, but New York City has just about every demographic you can imagine.

B (16:05)

It's incredible.

C (16:05)

And the full spectrum of social classes across them. There are rich, poor and middle class folks of just about every ethnicity. There are neighborhoods that are largely native born, neighborhoods that are largely immigrant. So give us a sense of how different parts of the city are voting or turning out.

B (16:23)

Right. This is kind of the million dollar question. How can you distill New York City into a couple sound bites that kind of make sense to people? The fastest growing and most probably consequential group of New York City voters to. What we're discussing is. Yeah, the, the Commie Corridor, right. Which in this piece I just published, I have Commie Corridor Senior and Commie Corridor Junior because Mamdani's victory in, in June really, I think expanded the map for like what is possible for a Democratic socialist, a left leaning candidate with the right message and things of that sort. And these are basically largely young, walkable neighborhoods where folks are college educated. Some are gentrifying, some have already gentrified and they have really this year, but slowly, steadily building for the last decade, have emerged as like arguably the most powerful coalition in the city. Many of these neighborhoods, but not all are in Brooklyn and in Queens, but on subway lines convenient to Manhattan Things of that sort. Overwhelmingly Democrat leaning. Then in Manhattan you have older voters, Democrats, some progressives, your no Kings crowd, some more traditional liberals, I would say, who in this election I expect to go with the Democratic nominee, but who were still relatively split in the primary. And then you kind of have your capitalist corridor, right? Your really wealthy New Yorkers who do not like Mamdani, many of them find his position on Israel extremely objectionable. But. But those folks, they traditionally influence the electricity, the election through other means than just their votes. Cutting checks to super PACs, TVs, editorial boards, etc. But they kind of find themselves outnumbered by their other wealthy liberal and progressive neighbors here. And then as you go farther out into the outer boroughs, you have many middle class black neighborhoods that Cuomo won quite convincingly in the primary, but that since then Mamdani has steadily gained ground with black voters. I would say the black community is. Don't want to pay with broad strokes here, but less ideological than some of the other folks that I'm talking about. It's very much driven by institutions and relationships. And Mamdani has those now. And Cuomo, Cuomo still has his name, the resonance of a two decade long career and you know, all those times on TV during the COVID 19 pandemic. But he kind of just has that now and he's very much reliant on that and super indexed towards the older folks in those neighborhoods. Like the black electorate in New York is far older than the Hispanic or the Asian electorate, for instance. Right. So depending on how those neighborhoods go, that will determine the margin, I think quite significantly, you also, because it's a general election, you're Irish and Italian, Catholic homeowners, Staten Island, Southern Brooklyn, parts of Queens and the Bronx as well. These are communities that Donald Trump wins 2/3 of the vote in. Again, if I make fun of the socialists and I jokingly call them communists, I've referred to this group as kind of Archie Bunker's descendants, who's the star of all in the Family. Queen's homeowner. Right. Kind of the. Your white working class urban Catholic man. I give a very long winded explanation, but I think another big part of this election that was a big story of the race in New York last year is just kind of the Hispanic and the Asian working class. Now within those two groups, infinitely diverse folks from South America, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, folks from China, Southeast Asia, et cetera, et cetera. Almost uniformly, all of those demographics shifted very pronouncedly towards Donald Trump last November. I expect a lot of the voters who came out last year at this time to frankly stay home. Yeah, but of the voters who do come out, I'm very curious to see what wins. I think the cost of living stuff helps. Mamdani there. Sliwa didn't always do very well with Hispanic voters, but four years ago he won a lot of the Chinese neighborhoods in Brooklyn and in Queens. And that was a big like warning sign to the Democrats that of course they did nothing about. And then it was kind of the precursor to Lee Zeldin and then Trump's gains in those neighborhoods and then Cuomo's kind of an establishment relic. I don't think he'll be too viable there or too interesting, but it's an interesting mix. And I, I labeled some of those neighborhoods as among the forgotten people because I think in political discourse, very specifically those folks are forgotten. There's a big shift to the right, get a lot of attention for a month or two and then it's kind of back to normal.

C (21:12)

It's a very talented breakdown of a city that can be hard to describe in even a couple paragraphs. So you did a fantastic job. What do we think the overall electorate will look like when you put all those neighborhoods together? Sort of young versus old, college educated versus not college educated. Like when we talk about the results on election night, what is the collection of that 2 million people going to look like? More or less.

B (21:38)

In total it will be. New York City is about, I would say one third white. This electorate will probably be a little over 40% white just because the SLIWA coalition is very like white ethnic. Cuomo does best now with white voters who are very wealthy and who are orthodox and Hasidic Jewish. Whereas Mamdani also, he does very well with old whiter progressives and younger white college educated renters. So I think if we rate where the turnout is. Right. I think you're.

C (22:13)

Well, it's also worth saying that citizenship and eligibility to vote is higher amongst the white population in New York City than amongst other populations in New York City that are more liable to be immigrants who are not naturalized. And so like part of the drop off that you see.

B (22:29)

But even I think controlling for like registered voters and things like that, I think you'll see the white turnout increase as a percentage of registered voters. I think regrettably the Hispanic turnout will be down. That's kind of, that's just a trend we've seen from the primary to like the Bronx is, is struggling for turnout. I think that will unfortunately continue. Asian turnout will Be interesting because there will be a noticeable South Asian boost. But East Asian voters, I'm not sure that's kind of to be determined. But I would imagine Asians pull their weight as a, as a percentage of the electorate and it might even be a little bit above kind of the wild card is what, what happens with the black electorate? Will they be really motivated to come out or will they look at Mamdani and Cuomo and be like, I don't really love my choices here. We're going to turn out, but not in anything beyond like a normal midterm. Certainly the, the voters over 50 will, will make up a, a much larger percentage of the electorate than they did in the primary. But the thing is, is that Mamdani is only losing the over 50s by like less than 10%. It's like a single digit margin. Whereas he's winning under, under 50s by 10, 20, 30%, kind of depending on the age range. And as long as that holds, that's a very compelling path to a resounding victory.

C (23:56)

Like we've said, there's a strong chance, strong might be, even putting it lightly, chance that Mamdani will be the next mayor of New York City. But you know, at least election wonks will be paying attention to whether he exceeds the 50% threshold, actually gets a majority coalition or a plurality coalition to get him into Gracie Mansion. Do you think there is actually a difference not just for the election wonks, but for how Zoran Ramdani will be able to sort of administer or govern the city as mayor based on whether he gets a majority coalition or not?

B (24:33)

It's a million dollar question practically. I don't think there will be much difference between 49.5%, 50.5%. But I think symbolically, to be able to broadcast affirmatively that you have won a majority of the city's voters immediately shuts down any narrative that oh, if Curtis Lewa left the race, Cuomo would have won, Mamdani wouldn't won, he's supported by a loud minority, but not a majority, etc. Etc. Like for instance, Zaran winning the primary by 13% did him a world of good in terms of coalescing so much institutional support and so much momentum going into the general. Had he won the primary by like 1% or so, even with 51% to 49% with the ranked choice voting, it would have been a much harder general election. It would have been much more fraught. We would be sitting here probably just discussing is he gonna win or not. And I think that he needs comparable momentum to come from the general election because there are going to be a very well funded and influential group set who are always going to be kind of organizing against him when he's in office. This will also carry over to like very insider baseball things like the race, which is a set of backroom deals and behind the scenes machinations to choose the next city council speaker. And the city Council speaker is like, I mean, it's like the speaker of the House, but it's like if there was only one legislative body that's someone who has a tremendous amount of influence in terms of shaping or potentially axing Mamdani's local agenda. This will also carry through to, you know, whether Governor Hochul will want to really put his reforms as top priorities in Albany. You know, if she sees him kind of limp to the finish line. And I think frankly, like, if he, again, if he did not perform so well in the primary, you don't, you don't have Hochul come out and support him. But because he appears to have so much momentum, a lot of these establishment politicians self serving as they do, they just want to be a part of that. They have their own elections. They see what they're, they're not totally blind to what he's doing. So I do think again, getting the majority does a lot for his governing coalition. And it's just, you don't want to have a scenario where he like peaked in June and July and then it's like there's already kind of wind coming out of the sails before it's even January 1st.

C (27:11)

On the topic of governing, I want to talk a little bit about the issues that have been the focal point of this election.

A (27:20)

Have they changed much between the primary.

C (27:23)

And now when we talk, we actually spoke, we did a substack live together back when Zoran Mamdani won the election with Nate, who was like in the middle of gambling in Las Vegas and joined us from quick jaunt of the hotel room or something like that. But we talked a lot about how Mamdani had jettisoned a lot of the more controversial social, cultural issues of the progressive left in favor of a sort of one note campaign on cost of living. Has that continued?

B (27:55)

I definitely think it's continued, but it's also, he's just covered differently now as the Democratic nominee and the front runner. All the attention and scrutiny is, I would say, rightfully on him and to where, you know, now his policy positions, associations, past statements, they're all like under a microscope to the respect that they were not during the primary because Cuomo was under that microscope as the heavy favorite. Right. But I think the core issues of the race haven't changed. I mean, the, The. The map that we see on next Tuesday will be in some ways very, very similar to the primary. Already there, there have been. Throughout this whole race, there's been very few undecideds because most people who know they're going to vote have their mind firmly made up. It's more of just like a, which candidate can kind of maximize that base? Who has the biggest ceiling? I don't think the issues have changed, but I think the issues have changed dramatically from New York City mayoral races. In the past, it took a report from the New York Times saying that there are 160,000 homeless public school students for, like, education to continually kind of be brought up in local news cycles, in the debates, things like that. Back in the days of 2013 or 2009, that was like a preeminent topic, right? It was all local issues. Now it's Trump, Gaza, meta, cost of living, Democratic Party, et cetera, et cetera. You just didn't have those. That national lens to the mayor's race the last time these contests were competitive.

C (29:40)

Yeah, I think, I think that's a really interesting point. Mandani has clearly moderated to some extent on things like, you know, involving private developers in building more housing in New York City. He's said that he regrets any suggestion of globalize the intifada comments that were previously associated with him. You know, he said that he no longer wants to defund the police, although he doesn't want to increase funding to the police per se, or hire more police officers, but instead create a community policing program that gets mental health professionals involved.

A (30:18)

So he's moderated, like, and he's.

C (30:21)

And he's just said straight up, like, that was a different context. I've changed my mind. I've changed the way I view things. I've spent more time in communities that are afraid of for their own safety, and as a result, public safety is a bigger issue to me, and I've changed how I view it. One question I have here is, like, I think nationally, progressives and folks on the Democrats have said, okay, we probably need to moderate on things like immigration. And you saw Bernie Sanders recently in a podcast appearance saying, you know, Trump is better on the border than Biden was. And, you know, a country ought to have borders, otherwise it's. It's not a country at all. And while you'll see shifting positions on Things like that, policing. I don't think we see much moderation on the, like we need government run grocery stores or we're going to freeze.

A (31:08)

The rent or things like that.

C (31:10)

I mean is it, is it this dynamic of continue to jettison the social, cultural, sort of leftist stuff and just really embrace the economic leftist stuff?

B (31:19)

You know, that's a good question, I guess. I think that Zoran is pretty left on social and cultural issues but I think he's smart just to not. You can't fight a multi front war and the fight he wants to have is around the cost of living. I don't foresee a scenario where he would have enough political capital to do tremendous NYPD overhauls and be able to do all of this. I mean some of this is just, just a reflection of having to work with the state government in Albany. The governor who has a wider constituency than you do. So I think he looked at it and he said these are the avenues where what I believe is very popular. Let's focus on that and let's not get bogged down in the other stuff. I think that motivated the decision to keep Jessica Tisch, who's you know, Eric Adams choice for. Yeah, she's the current police commissioner, heir to a very heir to the Lows family fortune. She's one of might be the only person in the city that can draw rave reviews from the New York Times and the New York Post. Someone who is like elite media, elite financial buy in completely. But you know, she is, she's railed against like bail reform laws and things like she's not your progressive criminal justice reformers idea of a police commissioner but she has buy in from some elements of the NYPD and also like the media and the financial elite. And it's like okay, if she's willing to play ball in like most things, I think that kind of makes sense. And that's the direction that they went in because it's like if we have the media, the billionaires and the cops giving us headaches, we are never going to be able to tackle this agenda. And I think it reflects a prioritization of that. He didn't run on police reform, ran on addressing the cost of living.

C (33:24)

Do you see other progressives taking a page out of this book maybe?

B (33:31)

That's a great question. I mean frankly I think this Iran is a really skilled and and savvy politician and I don't know that other people are quite like that. I guess it's hard to extrapolate to the national level, but it does Seem like folks might keep with their economic populism, but it's like, hey, we gotta reshape our image with respect to, I guess, immigration and some of, you know, the, the national equivalence of the nypd. And although I, I must also be clear, has never said to globalize the antifada, he's just been asked to denounce it. And for a while he said, I'm, you know, free speech, all that stuff. And then he just said, look, I'm. I discourage people from saying it, but the national equivalence of those thorny issues, I, I anticipate that you probably will see some progressive Democrats, if not moderate, than just talk about them less, strike a more conciliatory tone, certainly.

C (34:32)

During a recent debate, the moderators asked everyone on stage to take a position on the ballot initiatives.

B (34:40)

Oh, great question.

C (34:40)

New Yorkers are going to be voting on. Sliwa and Cuomo were very quick to state their positions. Cuomo said that he's endorsing a yes vote on these ballot issues. Sliwa said no. And the ballot issues that I'm talking about are whether New York ought to make it basically easier to develop housing in certain neighborhoods. For example, like the 12 neighborhoods in New York City that have had the least housing growth over the past however many years. Is there an expedited process for getting new housing built there? You know, are there certain ways to override a city council veto on new housing development and the likes? And these are suggestions that came out of a commission that were put together by current Mayor Eric Adams, who is pretty pro housing development and came up with this plan called the City of Yes, basically yimbyism as city policy. Joan Mamdani just said, vote however you want to vote. And it was quite a lively moment in the debate in which Cuomo and.

A (35:48)

See were like, bro, take a position.

C (35:50)

Like you're trying to govern the city. What do you think should happen? What's your opinion? Why hasn't Mandani taken a position on making it easier to build housing in New York City? I mean, taken a position on that way of making it easier to build housing in New York City.

B (36:07)

I'm so glad you asked me this question. Cause I could, I could do five minutes on this for sure. First of all, the video clip of this exchange is currently just an ad for one of the Cuomo super pacs. So to give you an idea. Oh, it was, it was his worst moment of any of the four debates. Without a doubt, it was not good. The anti politician looked like a politician trying to triangulate his answer, but to kind of pull the veil off of like, why he, you know, was, was very unsure what to do. It's because a lot of the Democratic members of the City Council, Democrat and Republican, ironically, are very opposed to this, these ballot questions because it would like, weaken the council's power and like their powers, individual members. So they're against it. And Mavdani kind of needs to keep them on his good side, not only because they're the body that he works with, but because we've got this speaker's election coming up and some of the speaker candidates I think would be helpful to a Mamdani's agenda and some would not. Right. So he can't go alienating them before this important vote.

A (37:13)

And so you're saying he wants to.

C (37:15)

Say yes, vote yes on.

B (37:17)

I am 99% sure that before the, that on like election day or the day before, he'll say yes, I vote or, or signal something. Yeah, I, I certainly think that. I have no reason to believe that he does not support these measures, which I think poll very well and of course are supported by the, you know, the, the pro housing broad tent in New York City is very influential and also quite well funded and at this.

C (37:46)

Point encompasses all kinds of different politically minded people.

B (37:51)

Yes.

C (37:52)

I'm always a little hesitant to put too much stock in the early vote because I agree. Well, one, the early vote is just that it's people who voted early and not the entirety of the electorate.

A (38:06)

But on top of that, early voting.

C (38:08)

Patterns have changed a lot based on two things, both the pandemic and people developing new voting patterns as a result of the pandemic. But then also it's become a partisan issue as well. So whereas Republicans used to vote early at higher rates than Democrats, now the reverse is true. And usually in the early vote, you might try to compare with this election.

A (38:30)

To the last election, but the 2021.

C (38:32)

Election was still in the midst of COVID And so none of these patterns have sorted themselves out enough to even put like the amount of stock in the early vote that you would. Which still comes with lots of caveats.

A (38:46)

Nonetheless, a lot of people aren't talking about it.

C (38:48)

So let's talk about it for a second. What are the early voting patterns looking like?

B (38:52)

I mean, it's basically just each coalition's white voters are voting because they either have cars or they live very close to their polling sites. The one takeaway, I guess you could say, is that again, in kind of these capitalist corridor parts of Manhattan, there is Like, a lot of turnout early, certainly punching above their weight. And I imagine that turnout is good for Andrew Cuomo, but he's not. He's not getting.

C (39:22)

That also just tracks with rich people voting early. Like, rich, college educated people vote, but they're voting earliest and the most frequently.

B (39:29)

They're voting more, though, early than they, like, did in the primary. Like, if you compare the distribution of the electorate, the primary at this point would be like, oh, wow, this is perfect for a momdani upset. You look at this and it's like, well, it's like a little more mixed. But Cuomo is not getting the juice in some of the other parts of the city yet that he would need to win. I think of the vote that is already in the bank. I think Mavdani is up in the single digits. That is what I could say. High single digits. I would say 8, 9, maybe 10%. But because his coalition is more indexed to. Young is now more working class than Cuomo's coalition. I think with Halloween on Friday, New York City Marathon on Sunday. Think about the New York. Think about the route of the New York City Marathon, right? It's literally the commie corridor, junior and senior, right? Even when it goes to the Upper west side, it goes along Second Avenue. That's now. A lot of it is now Mamdani turf. And I think you will see very large numbers of the Mamdani coalition coming home this weekend. And then the more, you know, the South Asian folks, the Muslim folks, his gains amongst black and Hispanic voters, you will see that push on Tuesday. I see that Cuomo is doing a little better than expected, but I think if there's anything in jeopardy, it's just like, does he get 50%? It's not a win loss thing.

C (40:57)

Where would you put your expectation today.

B (40:59)

On if he gets 50% of the majority line? Yeah, I think he'll get it. I think his. I think the voters. The voters that he has, I think are really hard to poll. And I think by and large, a surge in turnout is good for him. I think he gets it. Again, the polls have him in the mid-40s, but if they're off by four.

C (41:22)

Or five, you're not trusting the polls.

B (41:25)

I didn't trust the polls last time, and that's why I'm here on this podcast with you.

A (41:29)

Sometimes you.

C (41:30)

That is true. That is true. You kind of like you made your own lane, calling that election before it ever happened.

A (41:37)

But, you know, sometimes you overlearn the.

C (41:38)

Lessons of one election.

B (41:40)

Absolutely. That. That's why Genuinely, if you told me a week ago, I'd be like 100% he gets 50 this week. I'm like, okay, we gotta look at it, we gotta see. But I think, you know, you still put a gun to my head. I still think he gets it. But I will be reviewing the data as it comes in to the best of my abilities and evaluating from there, like, if this, this becomes a DEFCON 1 Cuomo momentum situation, I will certain. You will. You will be the first to know.

C (42:08)

You'll have to come back.

B (42:08)

Yeah, I'll have to come back. Yeah, yeah. Along with everybody else that I've said. You will be the first to know. Maybe we can do a text chain. It could be like a. Yeah, sounds good.

C (42:17)

Sounds good. Final question. What's your biggest question? Looking like you're going to get a ton of data on election night. We're all going to be processing it. You know, we've talked about some of the big questions, but what kind of like, cross tabs are you going to be favoring on your Excel spreadsheet as like it all comes in?

B (42:34)

I'm gonna write an article about this. I think if I have time, other than him getting the majority, the most important thing to me will be how he does in a lot of the neighborhoods that the Democratic Party has hemorrhaged support in. Unfortunately, I think that might get overlooked, but that matters a lot to me.

C (42:53)

So, like, we're talking about Hispanic and Asian neighborhoods.

B (42:56)

Yeah, I'm talking about like Corona, Queens, where it's. That neighborhood in 2016 was like 9010 Hillary versus Trump. And in 2024 it was like 45 Harris, 55 Trump. I mean, to the point where Vote Hub, they have that wonderful map, precinct map of the whole country where you can Compare shifts from 2020, 2016, et cetera. There are no blocks in the whole country that saw shifts like that, that saw such a. A hemorrhaging of support and they're all next to one another. I think that stuff matters and there are many neighborhoods like that across the city, so that I will be looking very closely at that.

C (43:38)

Well, I'm pretty sure we're going to be live streaming that night and maybe we'll get you to dial in for a second to give us your take on whether it happened. But for now, thank you so much for joining me today.

B (43:49)

Of course. Pleasure was all mine. Thanks for having me.

A (43:53)

My name is Galen Drouke. Remember to subscribe to this podcast@gdpolitics.com and wherever you get your podcasts. Paid subscribers get about twice the number of episodes. You can also join our paid subscriber chat and pass along questions for us to discuss on the show. And most importantly, you ensure that we can keep making a podcast that prioritizes curiosity, rigor and a sense of humor. Also, be a friend of the POD and go give us a a five star rating. Maybe even tell a friend about us.

C (44:21)

Thanks for listening and we will see you soon.