Election Data Trivia From America's 250 Years

Summary

GD POLITICS Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Election Data Trivia From America's 250 Years
Host: Galen Druke
Release Date: July 10, 2025
Website: www.gdpolitics.com

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Introduction

In this episode of GD POLITICS, host Galen Druke, alongside co-hosts Leah Scarnham and Jacob Robashkin, celebrates America's journey towards its semiquincentennial by diving into a captivating game of American Election Data Trivia. The trio engages in a lively and informative discussion, blending humor with rigorous political analysis to explore key historical moments in U.S. electoral history.

Opening Banter and Setup (00:00 - 03:00)

Galen kicks off the episode with a humorous attempt to pronounce "semiquincentennial," setting a lighthearted tone for the session. He mentions the initial plan to include a game celebrating America's 250th year but due to an extended conversation, they pivot to the trivia game format instead.

Galen Druke (00:00):
"Let me say this word one time out loud before I actually have to read it off of the screen, which is semiquincentennial."

The introduction also includes playful interactions among the hosts, highlighting Leah's witty remarks about age and Jacob's youthful energy.

Trivia Game Commences

Question 1: First Accurately Predicted Election by Polling (03:20 - 06:07)

Galen poses the first trivia question: "What year was the first American election ever accurately predicted by polling?"

Both Leah and Jacob take their guesses, with Leah landing closer to the correct answer. The correct answer is 1936, where Gallup polling predicted Franklin D. Roosevelt's (FDR) victory over Alf Landon. However, the poll had a significant error margin of 12 percentage points.

Galen Druke (04:15):
"Was it 1936? The answer is 1936."

Leah reveals a connection to her recent work: Leah Scarnham (06:18):
"I happen to have written an article about the first political prognosticators last year."

The discussion delves into the early days of political polling and its initial reception, touching upon figures like economist Lewis Bean and the challenges faced during that era.

Leah Scarnham (06:31):
"There was a lot happening at that time in polling and political prognostication."

Question 2: Smallest Percentage of Popular Vote for a Winning President (06:07 - 13:01)

The second question challenges the participants: "What's the smallest percentage of the popular vote a winning US President has ever received?"

After some deliberation, Jacob confidently answers 37%, correctly identifying Abraham Lincoln in the 1860 election. The hosts explore the context of this election, highlighting the fractured four-way race between Lincoln, John C. Breckenridge, John Bell, and Stephen A. Douglas.

Galen Druke (09:58):
"Abraham Lincoln won with 38.5% of the popular vote in 1860."

They discuss the implications of such a divided electoral field and ponder its relevance to modern politics, such as the potential emergence of third parties.

Jacob Robashkin (11:48):
"I knew that that was a four way race because the Democratic party had kind of fractured."

Question 3: Closest Presidential Election by Raw Votes (13:14 - End of Transcript)

The third question introduces challenges as the transcript concludes before revealing the answer: "What state had the closest presidential election result in US History?"

Participants prepare to answer, but the transcript ends before they disclose their responses.

Notable Quotes

• Galen Druke (00:15):
  "Semiquincentennial quincentennial. It's kind of giving semi quinceanera."

• Leah Scarnham (01:42):
  "I was going to say, like, you know, what was it? Was it John Quincy Adams era?"

• Jacob Robashkin (02:30):
  "Clocking it at a spry 28."

• Galen Druke (04:15):
  "The answer is 1936."

Insights and Discussions

Throughout the trivia game, the hosts provide historical insights into U.S. elections, illustrating the evolution of polling and its impact on political forecasting. They emphasize the complexities of multi-candidate races and the significance of understanding electoral data to grasp the broader political landscape.

Leah Scarnham (06:29):
"There was this economist for the FDR administration named Lewis Bean who like turned economic indicators into elections forecasting."

Jacob shares his analytical process in approaching the questions, demonstrating the blend of historical knowledge and critical thinking necessary for political trivia.

Jacob Robashkin (09:28):
"I was torn between those two. And then you gave us the hint about, you know, post 1828."

Conclusion

As the transcript concludes, Galen invites listeners to become paid subscribers to access the full episode, which includes the completed trivia game and additional insights. He highlights benefits such as exclusive content, interactive question submissions, and supporting the podcast's continued production.

Galen Druke (13:30):
"To catch the full episode, head over to GDPolitics.com and become a paid subscriber."

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This episode of GD POLITICS effectively blends educational content with engaging discussion, providing listeners with a deeper understanding of pivotal moments in American electoral history through an entertaining trivia format. Whether you're a politics enthusiast or a casual listener, the episode offers valuable insights into the mechanics of elections and the role of polling in shaping political narratives.

Transcript

[Galen Drew]

Let me say this word one time out loud before I actually have to read it off of the screen, which is semiquincentennial. Semiquincentennial quincentennial. It's kind of giving semi quinceanera.

[Leah Scarnham]

Quinceanera. Yeah. Are you sure it's not semi? No. That's how you would say it.

[Galen Drew]

Hello, and welcome to the GD Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Drew. So we had originally planned to play a game celebrating America entering its 250th year on the Monday podcast. But as frequently happens, Jacob Hrabashkin, Leah Skynam and I ended up talking for far too long, and we didn't have time to play our game. I hope you enjoyed that conversation. It's in the feed from Monday, but it's still worth celebrating America's 250th year. Or as I recently learned, it's semi quincentennial. As we enter this year of celebration and whatnot. I know we're not 250 years old yet. We got to make it to July 4, 2026. And I think we're going to do it. I think we're going to make it. So we are going to play an elections data trivia game that spans much of that quarter century. It's not a quarter century. It's a quarter millennia.

[Jacob Robashkin]

Quarter millennium.

[Galen Drew]

Quarter millennium. Wow, America, we're really doing it. Okay. All of that is to say, here with me to play an exciting game of American election data trivia is Leah Scarnham. Welcome back to the podcast, Leah.

[Leah Scarnham]

Thank you. I'm personally just a quarter of a century years old, too, so you need to probably.

[Galen Drew]

Um. Wait, are you. You're. Are you actually serious? You can't be, right?

[Leah Scarnham]

No, I'm not serious. I'm older.

[Galen Drew]

Oh, okay. I was gonna say, like, you look amazing.

[Leah Scarnham]

You're like. No, you're young. Impossible. You do not look 25 is what just happened.

[Galen Drew]

No, you just. I mean, you just. You sound like you have years of wisdom.

[Leah Scarnham]

Oh, my goodness, Galen, you don't look as. You don't look a day over of a quarter century either.

[Galen Drew]

Oh, my goodness. Oh, my goodness. Okay, there we go. That's what I was really looking for. Now I'm blushing. Also here with us, who I think is the youngest person on the podcast is Jake Robashkin, deputy editor at Inside Elections. Welcome to the podcast.

[Jacob Robashkin]

Clocking it at a spry 28.

[Galen Drew]

And here we're going to redact how much older the rest of us are than you. Although I think at this Point people probably know. Anyway, welcome back, both of you. In reality, we've just finished recording one episode of the GD Politics podcast. So we're loose. We're, you know, we're ready to play a game. Do you guys have a pen and paper?

[Jacob Robashkin]

Yeah, I should have two pens because I didn't know this notepad already came.

[Leah Scarnham]

With a pen already Behind Jacob already.

[Galen Drew]

Here's how it's going to work. I'm going to ask you a question. The two of you are going to write it down on your paper. When time expires, you are going to reveal your answer and say it at the same time. Because people who are just listening and not watching the video will. Will not be able to see what is on your paper.

[Leah Scarnham]

So great. I hate this. I hate this. For the record, let's do it.

[Galen Drew]

Okay, here's the first one. Very, very on brand. What year was the first American election ever accurately predicted by polling? Hmm? Oh, Leah just gave a face that suggests that she knows the answer. Oh, now she's giving a face that suggests that she might not know the answer.

[Leah Scarnham]

Hold on.

[Galen Drew]

I hope listeners are loving this play by play.

[Leah Scarnham]

Oh, shoot.

[Galen Drew]

Oh, you can say the people. You can say. I think you will let it fly if you just say the people.

[Leah Scarnham]

Can I just say the person?

[Galen Drew]

I think you have to say the people.

[Leah Scarnham]

No, no, no. I got it. I can do the year. I can do the year.

[Galen Drew]

Okay. I like a little negotiation, though.

[Leah Scarnham]

I'm gonna be like 20 years off.

[Galen Drew]

All right. Three, two, one, reveal.

[Jacob Robashkin]

1952.

[Leah Scarnham]

1932.

[Galen Drew]

Whoa. Okay, you're both wrong. But Leah is closer. Are we gonna do. Are we gonna do closest?

[Leah Scarnham]

Well, if I'm closer, yeah, clearly that sounds. That sounds fair to me. Was it 1936?

[Galen Drew]

The answer is 1936.

[Leah Scarnham]

Oh. Second chance.

[Galen Drew]

It was FDR. That was Gallup polling. And it was FDR versus Alf Landon as on the Republican ticket. So that's one point for Leah. We'll go closest. And I have a follow up question here, which is that poll did correctly predict, as I said, the result of that election, which was FDR winning. However, what was the error of that poll? The actual margin versus the margin showed in the final poll that Gallup released. I know that you're going to be winging this one. Don't worry, I won't put. We're not going to judge you too much.

[Leah Scarnham]

Are we doing decimals?

[Galen Drew]

No, Round to the nearest percentage point.

[Jacob Robashkin]

Okay.

[Galen Drew]

Ap.

[Leah Scarnham]

Okay. Sorry.

[Jacob Robashkin]

I'm just hoping to get the right order of magnitude here.

[Galen Drew]

Okay. Three, two, one. Reveal.

[Jacob Robashkin]

Nine percent.

[Leah Scarnham]

Four.

[Galen Drew]

Okay. All right, the point goes to Jacob. It was 12 percentage points. Pretty steep polling error. The Gallup poll projected that the margin between FDR and Alf Landon would be 12 percentage points, with FDR getting 56% and Alf Landon getting 44%. In the end, the actual result was FDR getting 61% to Alf getting 37%. So it was a 24 percentage point victory overall. So they were off by 12 percentage points. Which means, you know, Poland's been up since early on.

[Jacob Robashkin]

I actually don't even think you can say that accurately predicted the. Right, like, oh, yeah, FDR was going to win the 1936. I don't know, a monkey could have told you that. I. Sorry, George, but.

[Leah Scarnham]

But also, but also, I happen to have written an article about the first political prognosticators last year. I'm going to plug that for. For the nerds listening in here.

[Galen Drew]

Please do.

[Leah Scarnham]

And there was this economist for the FDR administration named Lewis Bean who I'm kind of obsessed with, who like turned economic indicators into elections forecasting. And then Gallup, and it all happened. There was a lot happening at that time in polling and political prognostication. So he wasn't a monkey. He was a smart man, a real person. He was a real, real economic person. Economist.

[Galen Drew]

Can I ask you, Leah, how seriously polling was taken when it was first introduced to the election coverage landscape? I have to imagine people weren't refreshing their carrier pigeons every minute. See, what were carrier pigeons? A thing in the 1930s.

[Leah Scarnham]

I think by then they had at least like done, I don't know, mail, phones, mail. They probably had like a. A telegram. But I do know that after, I think it was Dewey v. Truman and that whole disaster that like the Gallup like pulled together like a convention of other pollsters to like, figure out what went wrong. So I don't know the whole story. There's. There is a book about it that I have not read, Olive, but it's out there and I'm going to read it. And then next time we do this game, I'll have all the answers.

[Galen Drew]

The first ever APOR convention was post Dewey defeats Truman.

[Leah Scarnham]

I don't think that's what they call themselves, but yes, and I.

[Jacob Robashkin]

Yes, in spirit.

[Leah Scarnham]

It could be. They might have done it before then too. I just know that they also did it that year.

[Galen Drew]

Okay, so it is currently. Leah one. Jacob won. Next question. These are all quite nerdy. Bear with me.

[Leah Scarnham]

Shocked.

[Galen Drew]

What's the smallest percentage of the popular vote A Winning US President has ever received?

[Leah Scarnham]

Wait, say it. Try. Try that again.

[Galen Drew]

Okay, so what's the smallest percentage of Americans. Of American voters that an actual winning candidate ever received? So, for example, Bill Clinton never won a majority of the vote, but like, he still won the election, but he was in the 40s, so.

[Leah Scarnham]

And how back. How far back are we going here?

[Galen Drew]

Oh, we're 250 years old. We're going back 250 years. I mean, we don't have good data. Pre.

[Leah Scarnham]

I was gonna say. Are you talking like John Quincy Adams era? Like, you know, what was it? Was it John Quincy Adams?

[Galen Drew]

And I will give you a hint that this election took place after universal white male suffrage, which was in 1828.

[Jacob Robashkin]

Okay, I think I know which election it is, but I have no idea what the number is.

[Galen Drew]

I think we'll probably like. If you can describe this election, we'll probably give you.

[Leah Scarnham]

Wait, I might be able to describe this election.

[Galen Drew]

Okay, well then describe it on your piece of paper and. And show it to me.

[Leah Scarnham]

This is gonna be so embarrassing. I hate that you make us do this so terrible.

[Jacob Robashkin]

Leah, you gotta be more decisive. I can tell you never did quiz bowl. You're taking your time here. You gotta be on the buzzer.

[Leah Scarnham]

I did not do quiz bowl. I was a newspaper kid, believe it or not. Okay, you know what? I'm just putting down a number. I'm gonna go with my gut. Okay, here we go.

[Galen Drew]

I love it. 3, 2, 1. Reveal.

[Leah Scarnham]

41.

[Jacob Robashkin]

37%. 1860, Abe Lincoln.

[Galen Drew]

Okay, Jacob, really doing it here. So you are off slightly on the percent, but you have correctly described the election. So Abraham Lincoln won with 38.5% of the popular vote in 1860. It was a four way race though. So he still won the electoral college decisively. But 38.5% of the. That's the smallest percentage of the popular vote a winning US President has ever won received. Jacob, tell us a little bit about where that piece of knowledge came from.

[Jacob Robashkin]

Well, first of all, I think that was pretty good.

[Galen Drew]

Where did that piece. That piece of knowledge.

[Leah Scarnham]

Oh, yeah. Good job. Good job, Jacob. That was very good.

[Jacob Robashkin]

Where did that piece of knowledge come from? I don't know. I mean, I knew that that was a four way race because the Democratic party had kind of fractured. And you gave me a good hint because I couldn't remember right, that the election, you know, the stolen bargain election or the corrupt bargain, which is 1824, which is when Quincy Adams beats Andrew Jackson despite losing the. Both the electoral college and. And the Popular vote. Jackson is ahead in, but not with a majority and Henry Clay and all that. So I was torn between those two. And then you gave us the hint about, you know, post 1828. And I just kind of ran through, you know, a lot of elections, had three people. Very few American elections have had four contenders that all won a sizable chunk of the vote. And I knew 1860 was one of them. So I also have Lincoln on the mind because I read that story recently about how difficult it is to become a Gettysburg tour guide, that it's like the most strenuous, difficult test in America and they only offer it like every seven years. So Lincoln's always on the mind, I guess. But, you know, that's where that came.

[Galen Drew]

From to give people some of this data since we're celebrating America's 250th year. So obviously Abraham Lincoln won. He was running on the Republican ticket. He won 1.8, 1.9 million votes. Just to give you an idea of the population of the country at the time, that was almost 40% of eligible voters. On the Southern Democratic line was John C. Breckenridge on the Constitutional Union party line, and he won about 15% of the vote. On the Constitutional Union line was John Bell with 13% of the vote. And on the Democratic line was Stephen a. Douglas with 22% of the vote. So a really divided field there. You know, maybe that's what the future with the America party will look like. I don't.

[Leah Scarnham]

I don't know about that. I was just reading like two months ago, I was reading that new Eric Larson book, Demon of Unrest that goes a little bit into that election, which I should have thought of, but I was not. I wasn't even thinking a four way election, Jacob. I was thinking three way elections. So you really did earn that one with your brain.

[Galen Drew]

Okay, so it is two points for Jacob, one point for Leah. The next one. What state had the closest presidential election result in US History?

[Jacob Robashkin]

By raw votes or by raw votes?

[Galen Drew]

Raw votes. Don't overthink it.

[Leah Scarnham]

Okay.

[Jacob Robashkin]

Okay. You're giving us too many hints here.

[Leah Scarnham]

I like them. Keep it going.

[Galen Drew]

Okay. Three, two, one, Reveal. All right, that is the end of today's preview. To catch the full episode, head over to GDPolitics.com and become a paid subscriber. Jacob, Leah and I ended up playing this quiz game for about half an hour. And Jacob even shared why the 2000 election is his personal Roman Empire with lots of good details added in there. When you become a paid subscriber, you'll get about twice as many episodes. You'll also be able to share questions in the paid subscriber chat that we'll answer on the podcast. And importantly, you'll also be helping this podcast continue to exist. And when you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to most places that you listen to podcasts. I will add the details for how you do that in the show notes. Anyway, head over to gdpolitics.com Become a paid subscriber today. Thanks for listening and we'll see you soon.