GD POLITICS Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Election Data Trivia From America's 250 Years
Host: Galen Druke
Release Date: July 10, 2025
Website: www.gdpolitics.com

Introduction

In this episode of GD POLITICS, host Galen Druke, alongside co-hosts Leah Scarnham and Jacob Robashkin, celebrates America's journey towards its semiquincentennial by diving into a captivating game of American Election Data Trivia. The trio engages in a lively and informative discussion, blending humor with rigorous political analysis to explore key historical moments in U.S. electoral history.

Opening Banter and Setup (00:00 - 03:00)

Galen kicks off the episode with a humorous attempt to pronounce "semiquincentennial," setting a lighthearted tone for the session. He mentions the initial plan to include a game celebrating America's 250th year but due to an extended conversation, they pivot to the trivia game format instead.

Galen Druke (00:00):
"Let me say this word one time out loud before I actually have to read it off of the screen, which is semiquincentennial."

The introduction also includes playful interactions among the hosts, highlighting Leah's witty remarks about age and Jacob's youthful energy.

Trivia Game Commences

Question 1: First Accurately Predicted Election by Polling (03:20 - 06:07)

Galen poses the first trivia question: "What year was the first American election ever accurately predicted by polling?"

Both Leah and Jacob take their guesses, with Leah landing closer to the correct answer. The correct answer is 1936, where Gallup polling predicted Franklin D. Roosevelt's (FDR) victory over Alf Landon. However, the poll had a significant error margin of 12 percentage points.

Galen Druke (04:15):
"Was it 1936? The answer is 1936."

Leah reveals a connection to her recent work: Leah Scarnham (06:18):
"I happen to have written an article about the first political prognosticators last year."

The discussion delves into the early days of political polling and its initial reception, touching upon figures like economist Lewis Bean and the challenges faced during that era.

Leah Scarnham (06:31):
"There was a lot happening at that time in polling and political prognostication."

Question 2: Smallest Percentage of Popular Vote for a Winning President (06:07 - 13:01)

The second question challenges the participants: "What's the smallest percentage of the popular vote a winning US President has ever received?"

After some deliberation, Jacob confidently answers 37%, correctly identifying Abraham Lincoln in the 1860 election. The hosts explore the context of this election, highlighting the fractured four-way race between Lincoln, John C. Breckenridge, John Bell, and Stephen A. Douglas.

Galen Druke (09:58):
"Abraham Lincoln won with 38.5% of the popular vote in 1860."

They discuss the implications of such a divided electoral field and ponder its relevance to modern politics, such as the potential emergence of third parties.

Jacob Robashkin (11:48):
"I knew that that was a four way race because the Democratic party had kind of fractured."

Question 3: Closest Presidential Election by Raw Votes (13:14 - End of Transcript)

The third question introduces challenges as the transcript concludes before revealing the answer: "What state had the closest presidential election result in US History?"

Participants prepare to answer, but the transcript ends before they disclose their responses.

Notable Quotes

• Galen Druke (00:15):
  "Semiquincentennial quincentennial. It's kind of giving semi quinceanera."

• Leah Scarnham (01:42):
  "I was going to say, like, you know, what was it? Was it John Quincy Adams era?"

• Jacob Robashkin (02:30):
  "Clocking it at a spry 28."

• Galen Druke (04:15):
  "The answer is 1936."

Insights and Discussions

Throughout the trivia game, the hosts provide historical insights into U.S. elections, illustrating the evolution of polling and its impact on political forecasting. They emphasize the complexities of multi-candidate races and the significance of understanding electoral data to grasp the broader political landscape.

Leah Scarnham (06:29):
"There was this economist for the FDR administration named Lewis Bean who like turned economic indicators into elections forecasting."

Jacob shares his analytical process in approaching the questions, demonstrating the blend of historical knowledge and critical thinking necessary for political trivia.

Jacob Robashkin (09:28):
"I was torn between those two. And then you gave us the hint about, you know, post 1828."

Conclusion

As the transcript concludes, Galen invites listeners to become paid subscribers to access the full episode, which includes the completed trivia game and additional insights. He highlights benefits such as exclusive content, interactive question submissions, and supporting the podcast's continued production.

Galen Druke (13:30):
"To catch the full episode, head over to GDPolitics.com and become a paid subscriber."

This episode of GD POLITICS effectively blends educational content with engaging discussion, providing listeners with a deeper understanding of pivotal moments in American electoral history through an entertaining trivia format. Whether you're a politics enthusiast or a casual listener, the episode offers valuable insights into the mechanics of elections and the role of polling in shaping political narratives.