GD POLITICS: Election Eve 2025 Live At The Comedy Cellar

Host: Galen Druke
Guests: Nate Silver, Claire Malone
Date: November 4, 2025

Episode Overview

In this special Election Eve episode, host Galen Druke is joined by data guru Nate Silver and journalist Claire Malone for a live show at New York’s iconic Comedy Cellar. The trio dives deep into 2025’s key elections—focusing on the New York City mayoral race—unpacks polling nuances, analyzes the impact of scandals in the “post-Trump era,” and exchanges sharp, often funny insights into the shifting political landscape. The live audience energy adds both levity and urgency as they grapple with the meaning of local elections amid the Democrats’ ongoing 2024 postmortem.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Kicking Off with New York, Dallas, and City Stereotypes

• The episode opens with banter about a New York Post story claiming “everyone’s moving to Dallas if Mamdani wins,” sparking jokes about Dallas ("It kind of smells like oil" — Nate Silver, 01:19), New York ("New York smells like pizza” — Nate Silver, 01:30; "Pizza smells like garbage. Let's be honest." — Claire Malone, 01:32), and local cultures.

2. Meet the Hosts and Setting the Scene

• Galen welcomes a sold-out crowd and introduces Claire Malone (New Yorker staff writer) and Nate Silver (538 founder, Silver Bulletin editor). They riff about birthdays and Nate’s ongoing saga with Disney over 538’s brand rights ("They were like, we refused to sell to you because you were mean to us. I'm not making that up." — Nate Silver, 03:16).
• The team outlines the night: discussions on the major statewide races, the New York City mayoral election, and interactive segments like “Hot Take Hat” and “Guess What Americans Think.”

3. The 2025 Election Landscape

[04:19]

• Galen lists election hotspots: VA & NJ statewide races, a California ballot initiative, local elections nationwide, and the highly-watched NYC mayoral contest.

4. The NYC Mayoral Race: Polling and Uncertainty

[06:28–10:47]

• Poll Variation & Technical Deep Dive:

  • Galen challenges Nate on the significant polling spread in the NYC mayoral race (e.g., a 20-point difference between respected pollsters).
  • Nate explains that variation is expected when pollsters don't "herd" numbers, especially with highly mobilized first-time voters and an atypically young early voting demographic:
    “There’s more natural variation if you’re truly taking a random sample... we actually had... a primary earlier... we saw that he had very high youth turnout. ...turnout is high in what people call the commie corridor” — Nate Silver, 07:38 & 08:38.
  • Nate gives “Cuomo a real 5%” chance to win, not just “covering your ass” odds, citing real historical polling misses in NY.

• Scandals and the “Shy Voter” Effect:

  • They debate if scandals still swing elections. Nate points to consistent polling for Mamdani and minimal movement for Cuomo, hypothesizing shy voters are less of a factor after the June primary demonstrated clear voter intent.

• Candidate Personas:

  • Favorability ratings and public image matter: “Cuomo has not persuaded Normie voters and Zolbar has lots of people who dislike him...the caricature is contradicted by this guy who’s...energetic and affable... Cuomo is not a good messenger” — Nate Silver, 11:26.
  • Trump’s endorsement of Cuomo is discussed for its polarizing effect, comedic value, and “nationalizing” potential.

5. Scandal Fatigue and Voter Forgiveness in the Trump Era

[12:42–13:24]

• Claire observes, “There does seem to be—Republican, Democrat—candidates who have very, very imperfect things in their past, and voters will, if they like them or inclined towards them, they’ll kind of say... I mean, I don’t really care, [they've] evolved.” She notes how this tolerance would have been unthinkable pre-2016.

6. How the NYC Mayoral Race Fits into the Democrats’ 2024 Postmortem

[14:00–15:33]

• Galen frames Tuesday's election as a “test of how much scandals matter,” comparing it to other races with candidates dogged by controversy.
• Claire describes the race’s “nationalization”—both because “we all live here, we wanna cover it”—and because Trump treats Mamdani as a kind of bogeyman in his campaign communications.
• Claire: “To put it nicely, Mamdani is sort of a bugaboo for Trump... he keeps foreshadowing what’s going to happen in New York.”

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

“Dallas smells like oil. I’m not making that up. Denver smells like weed and Dallas smells like oil.”
— Nate Silver (01:19)

“New York smells like pizza.”
— Nate Silver (01:30)
“Pizza smells like garbage. Let’s be honest.”
— Claire Malone (01:32)

“The 538 brand is still available for purchase... They refused to sell to you because you were mean to us. I’m not making that up.”
— Nate Silver (03:16)

“There’s more natural variation if you’re truly taking a random sample of people than you’d think...If you knew the result was around plus 10, you might get in 600 person samples, some plus 18s and some plus fours.”
— Nate Silver (07:38)

“Turnout is high in what people call the commie corridor… Where do you live, Galen? I guess I'm in the commie...”
— Nate Silver (08:38)

“I think in some ways, Tuesday night is going to be a test of how much scandals matter.”
— Galen Druke (13:24)

“There does seem to be—Republican, Democrat—candidates who have very, very imperfect things in their past, and voters will, if they like them... just kind of say, ‘I don’t really care.’ ...That stuff used to play differently... the Trump era really seemed to change that.”
— Claire Malone (12:42)

“To put it nicely, Mamdani is sort of a bugaboo for Trump... he keeps foreshadowing what’s going to happen in New York. So I think that does nationalize it.”
— Claire Malone (14:54)

Important Timestamps

• 00:26 – Welcome and setting the live show scene
• 01:19 – Stereotypes: Dallas, Denver, NYC smells
• 03:16 – 538’s backstory: Disney drama
• 04:19–04:59 – Preview of election topics
• 06:28 – Discussion begins on the NYC mayoral race
• 07:38–09:42 – Nate’s polling analysis, first-time voter impact, “commie corridor”
• 10:47–13:24 – Discussion of candidate personas, favorability, and Trump’s endorsement
• 12:42 – Claire on new voter tolerance for scandal
• 14:00–15:33 – Contextualizing the mayoral outcome in 2024 postmortem and national political conversation

Tone and Style

The tone is candid, analytical, and comic—reflecting both the Comedy Cellar venue and the panel’s personalities. The trio’s easy rapport, live audience laughter, and irreverence (“commie corridor,” “pizza smells like garbage,” “they refused to sell to you because you were mean to us”) keep the episode lively while maintaining a serious look at the implications of 2025’s elections and what they reveal about American political behavior post-Trump.

Closing

This Election Eve live episode delivers lively, informed debate around major 2025 races—especially NYC’s mayoral contest—and deftly examines why voter attitudes are more tolerant of scandal than ever. The conversation is equal parts rigorous and playful, making sense of the nation’s fractious politics with data, wit, and a touch of birthday-party spirit.