GD POLITICS Podcast Summary

Episode: Election Night 2025: What To Watch And When
Host: Galen Druke
Date: November 3, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of GD POLITICS, hosted by Galen Druke with guests Nathaniel Rakich and Lenny Brauner, serves as a comprehensive preview of Election Night 2025. The panel discusses key races in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, and California, providing a rundown of poll closing times, what to watch for in each state, and the available data for election night analysis. There is a particular emphasis on the nerdy fun of following elections, the practicalities and pitfalls of live coverage, and the broader political trends underlying this off-year election.

Structure & Main Segments

1. Warm-up & Introducing the Team (00:00–04:56)

• Playful banter about GD POLITICS merchandise and marathon day in NYC (00:00–01:36).
• Introduction of guests Nathaniel Rakich and Lenny Brauner, both election experts with deep data backgrounds (03:51–04:56).
• Birthday jokes and discussion about not being tied to a mainstream newsroom any longer.

Notable Quote

"We don't work for a, you know, a major news organization anymore. We can, we can get as drunk as we want on election night."
—Galen Druke (04:15)

2. What to Expect Election Night: Format & Features (04:57–07:24)

• Description of GD POLITICS’ live streaming approach—“most fun election nerds on the Internet…a Zoom together, talking through the night as it happens” (04:57–05:21).
• Sharing charts, funny tweets, and casual conversation.
• Comparing to the former FiveThirtyEight live blog energy.

Notable Quote

"Think of this as something like the FiveThirtyEight Live blog come to life. Or at least that's the hope."
—Galen Druke (05:20)

State-by-State Breakdown

3. Virginia (07:25–15:46)

Polls Close: 7:00pm ET

Key Races & Data Insights

• The governor’s race likely non-competitive; Abigail Spanberger (D) leads by ~10 in polls.
• Down-ballot races (Attorney General, House of Delegates) offer broader indicators of partisan mood (09:13–10:24).
• Virginia praised for granular, precinct-level data availability—useful for real-time analysis (10:24–11:35).
• Attention on Northern Virginia, especially precincts with high Asian American populations, for shifting demographic trends (11:43–12:36).
• The impact of ongoing government shutdown on federal workforce-heavy regions, complicating generalizations (12:36–13:45).
• Attorney General’s race likely to test scandal impact on split-ticket voting (13:45–14:44).

Data Trends to Watch

• Whether pandemic-induced early voting partisan splits are “normalizing” (14:58–15:46).

Notable Quote

"Virginia actually [is] great at making data public. One of the best states, actually. And they're also very quick at updating data throughout the night."
—Lenny Brauner (10:35)

4. New Jersey (16:55–22:39)

Polls Close: 8:00pm ET

Key Races & Data Insights

• The governor’s race is the marquee contest—tight polling, possible polling error reminiscent of 2021 (16:55–18:27).
• Democrats favored, but within margin of error—a Republican win can't be discounted.
• New Jersey showed a substantial shift toward Trump in 2024, especially among voters of color and in urban areas (18:27–19:48).
• Data is less granular than Virginia; county-level results dominate, making fine demographic analysis difficult (19:57–21:43).
• Certain towns and demographic indicators (e.g., Orthodox Jewish populations) will be spotlighted as proxies for broader shifts.
• Slow count and possible delayed race call—expect results potentially not finalized on election night.

Notable Quotes

"New Jersey is going to be a really interesting one. I think this is the state to watch on election night..."
—Nathaniel Rakich (16:55)

"We will be doing that with county results...there's some very big counties. It'll take a while until those are fully reported and it makes the granular analysis of demographic groups...quite difficult."
—Lenny Brauner (20:13)

5. New York City (23:11–32:38)

Polls Close: 9:00pm ET

Key Races & Data Insights

• Mayoral race: Zoran Mamdani (Democratic Socialist) vs. Andrew Cuomo (Independent); contextually unique due to the two non-Republican frontrunners (23:50–25:11).
• Polling volatility: Large margin possibilities, but higher polling error because it’s not a typical D vs. R general (26:38–27:00).
• Rich precinct/election district-level data available for comparative analysis to prior elections (27:41–29:02).
• Focus on neighborhoods that shifted towards Trump in 2024—do these shifts persist in local/municipal races? What does turnout look like among non-white voters who previously trended GOP? (29:08–31:46).
• Caveats: Off-year, low-turnout races may reflect only high-propensity voters, limiting how much wider conclusions can be drawn (30:10–31:09).

Notable Quotes

"Having such a high profile figure be a Democratic socialist is going to give, provide a lot of talking points heading into...the next Democratic presidential primary."
—Galen Druke (25:11)

"This is kind of New York City mayoral race, it's technically a general election, but it's also kind of just like round two of the Democratic primary."
—Nathaniel Rakich (31:09)

6. California (Ballot Measure and Redistricting Initiative) (32:38–35:59)

Polls Close: 11:00pm ET

Data & Election Dynamics

• Statewide ballot initiative is the headline race—currently polling at a strong advantage (57–60% in favor).
• Terrible real-time data granularity; results by county, large population centers delay aggregating granular trends (33:05–34:43).
• Vote-by-mail means full results trickle in for weeks—trend analysis and demographic breakdowns won't be quick (34:10).

Notable Quotes

"No data at all."
—Lenny Brauner, on California's election night data prospects (33:05)

"Congrats to Democrats on getting those extra House seats and the redistricting wars continue well beyond Tuesday night as well."
—Galen Druke (35:59)

Other Races and Final Thoughts (36:07–39:10)

• Brief shout-out to Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court race as a "down-ballot" contest of note (36:20–36:38).
• Playful exploration of whether there are any international elections on the same day—spoiler: America runs solo this cycle (36:47–37:59).
• Technical behind-the-scenes challenges of putting on a live election night show (38:45–39:00).

Notable Quotes

"If nothing else, it's going to be unpredictable...Hopefully it'll be entertaining because we're doing really good analysis. But it could be entertaining because we're doing really bad analysis..."
—Nathaniel Rakich and Galen Druke (38:30–38:46)

Key Takeaways & Memorable Moments

• Election Data Quality: Virginia sets the gold standard; New Jersey and California are most challenging for live data analysis.
• Polling Error Lessons: Recent history cautions against assuming polling leads are secure, especially in New Jersey.
• Turnout Caveats: Off-year elections, especially for local offices or ballot questions, draw a distinct electorate—thus, long-term trends require careful interpretation.
• Political Realignment: There's ongoing curiosity about sustained shifts among voters of color, especially Latinos and Asian Americans, post-Trump era.
• Mayoral Impact Beyond NYC: Zoran Mamdani’s outcome and profile may influence Democratic politics nationally, irrespective of how typical NYC’s electorate is.

Handy Timeline & Timestamps

| Time (ET) | Event/Segment | Relevant Timestamp | |-------------------|----------------------------------------|-----------------------------------| | 7:00pm | Virginia polls close | [7:25–15:46] | | 8:00pm | New Jersey polls close | [16:55–22:39] | | 9:00pm | New York City polls close | [23:11–32:38] | | 11:00pm | California polls close | [32:38–35:59] | | Throughout | Live stream at GDPolitics.com | [04:57–07:24] |

Listen for These

• Birthday shenanigans: Expect some festivity on air if you join the election night stream ([04:12–04:36]).
• Technical honesty: Galen’s transparency about the effort and unpredictability of running an independent election night operation ([38:45–39:00]).
• Signature Tone: A mix of data-driven rigor, election nerd camaraderie, and a sense of humor runs throughout.

For More

• Join the Election Night Livestream: Tuesday at 7pm ET on gdpolitics.com
• Become a Paid Subscriber: More episodes, community chat, and post-election recaps.

Summary prepared for listeners seeking an in-depth, accessible guide to Election Night 2025 and the key political dynamics at play, with all the best nerdy detail and playful GD POLITICS flavor.