GD POLITICS – "Election Updates, Listener Questions, And A Note On Charlie Kirk"

Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Lenny Brauner (Senior Data Scientist, Washington Post)
Date: September 11, 2025

Overview

This episode of GD POLITICS opens with a somber reflection on the recent assassination of Charlie Kirk. Host Galen Druke addresses the tragedy, placing it in the broader context of increasing political violence in America, and then transitions into an engaging episode featuring listener questions and insightful election analysis. Joined by Lenny Brauner, the duo covers special elections, polling trends, European politics, realignments in voter coalitions, and the reliability of polls in the age of rampant spam calls and low social trust.

Addressing the Assassination of Charlie Kirk

(00:00–03:56)

• Galen Druke reflects on learning of Charlie Kirk’s murder after recording the episode.
  • Strongly condemns political violence, expresses sympathy for Kirk’s family.
  • Notes the pattern and frequency of violence in American politics, listing high-profile incidents (00:43).

    “It’s despicable and saddening… My heart goes out to Charlie's family and his young children.” – Galen Druke (00:04)

  • Criticizes partisanship in responses—applauds Democratic leaders for unequivocal condemnation; dismayed at provocateurs on both sides.
  • Advocates for unity and lowering political discord.

    “Decreasing political discord and engendering a shared sense of fate amongst Americans is one of the things that I care most about.” — Galen Druke (02:19)

Opening and Podcast News

(03:56–05:09)

• Introducing the co-host:
  Lenny Brauner, “friend of the podcast” and data scientist.
• Podcast rebranding announced:
  Galen shares his desire for a smooth transition compared to his days at FiveThirtyEight. > “Get ready. You’re not going to see that, like, Galen’s dramatic face, sort of like hidden in the darkness with GD politics lit up for that much longer.” — Galen Druke (04:27)
• Signature humor:
  Lenny jokes, “Are you saying GD politics will no longer be bringing light into the darkness?” (05:04)

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Special Election in Virginia’s 11th Congressional District

(05:10–09:23)

• Democratic overperformance:
  Democrats are consistently outperforming 2024 presidential results by 16 points in special elections (05:25). James Walkinshaw’s win by 50 points matches this trend.

  “It slots in really neatly into the pattern we’ve been seeing all along…our average is kind of great. Magical.” — Lenny Brauner (06:01)

• Predictive value caution:
  While special elections reveal current dynamics, Lenny urges caution in using them to predict midterm outcomes.
• Changes in voter propensity:
  High-propensity voters (traditionally Republican) are shifting to Democrats—older, whiter, more educated (07:21).

  “Democrats are becoming more white, Democrats are becoming older, and Democrats…are becoming...higher educated.” — Lenny Brauner (08:02)

• Electorate differences:
  Special elections have a smaller, more Democratic-leaning electorate than general elections.

2. Voter Access, Mail Ballots, and Shifting Coalitions

(09:23–12:12)

• Listener question: Does limiting mail-in ballots now hurt Republicans?
• Complexity of coalitions:
  The old dynamic—Republicans benefiting from higher propensity voters—is changing, as those now tend to lean Democratic (10:49).
• Data from 2024:
  For the first time in years, low-propensity, non-voters skewed more Republican or Trump-favoring.
• Normative stance:
  Galen: “We should just want whoever wants to be able to vote and is eligible to vote to be able to vote.” (10:42)
• Takeaway: While making mail voting harder could now hurt Republicans, coalitions remain fluid and trends may not persist.

3. European Elections Spotlight: Norway and the Rise of the Far Right

(12:12–19:40)

• Norway national election outcome:
  The Labour Party and allies retain a majority; the populist Progress Party doubles its share to become the second largest (12:19).
• Importance for U.S. audience:
  International elections offer comparative insights into global voter behaviors.
• Cost of living as a persistent issue:
  Central in Norway; echoes U.S. and other western elections, especially urban contests (14:46). > “It is interesting that the government party gained seats…not really something we’ve been seeing.” — Lenny Brauner (13:47)
• Wealth tax debate:
  Norway’s longstanding wealth tax becomes a salient issue; the Labor Party’s defense of it prevails (16:04).
  > “[Norway] has landed in a very different place when it comes to taxing wealth.” — Galen Druke (16:56)
• Historical context:
  Shifts in leftist policy focus from income tax to taxing wealth/capital (17:15).
• Rise of the far right:
  Populist/right-wing parties surge across Europe, potentially supplanting center-right conservatives (18:08). > “It is possible we’re looking at a turning point in European or…Western politics where the far-right parties are going to overtake the Conservative parties...” — Lenny Brauner (18:54)
  • Wall Street Journal highlights these parties now lead in the UK, Germany, France (19:09–19:25).

4. Brief Electoral Horizon

(19:40–20:25)

• Upcoming races:
  Moldova’s parliamentary election; Arizona’s 7th Congressional District special election; possible French snap elections (19:40).
• In-jokes:
  Galen jokes about needing a work trip to Austria for its next election.

5. Mailbag: Listener Questions

Trump’s Approval Trends and Poll Weighting

(20:25–24:36)

• Listener question: Why is Trump’s approval holding up better now than in his first term?
  • Theory posed: Is it because more pollsters now weight by Trump recall vote?
• Data analysis:
  Lenny evaluates pollsters using vs. not using recall weighting, finding only inconclusive evidence (21:14–22:21). > “It’s not at all obvious that that is what’s driving it. Though I do think it is a very good question.” — Lenny Brauner (22:20)
• Caveats in polling:
  Galen points out that earlier polls may have undercounted Trump’s true approval.
  > “There is probably some reason to believe that his approval was being undercounted.” — Galen Druke (22:43)
• Lenny’s note of caution:
  Calls for reading less into issue polling/approval polling—polls are imperfect mirrors except in horse race data (23:07). > “We should be reading a little bit less into both issue polling and…approval polling for exactly that reason.” — Lenny Brauner (23:07)
• NYT’s finding on issue polling:
  People may support a policy in principle, but not want it implemented in their own city; complicates interpretation.

Polling, Spam, and Low Social Trust

(25:05–27:49)

• Listener question: Are spam calls/texts undermining poll accuracy?
• Host’s experience:
  Galen was finally polled in the NYC mayoral race after never having been polled nationally.
• Lenny’s response:
  Pushes back—polls still perform fairly well on average, and the response rate decline predates spam’s prevalence (26:33). > “If I knew nothing about polling and you would tell me, oh, like 1% of everyone you will call picks up … I’d be like, oh, they’d be terrible. But … they’re actually pretty good.” — Lenny Brauner (27:01)
• Social trust and response rates:
  Spam is likely a contributing factor, but not the leading or original cause of declining responses.

Are Popularity Polls Useful?

(27:49–28:15)

• Listener question: Is polling party (or candidate) popularity really valuable, or does it just reflect temporary malaise like sports fans and their teams?
• About to discuss:
  The preview cuts off as Lenny prepares to address the deeper meaning and limits of party approval polls.

Notable Quotes

• “It’s hard to feel optimistic at a moment like this, but I do feel thankful for the positive community that we have here on this podcast.” — Galen Druke (03:28)
• “For my part, this right here is kind of the whole ball game. Decreasing political discord and engendering a shared sense of fate amongst Americans is one of the things that I care most about.” — Galen Druke (02:19)
• “Special elections… tell a story about what is happening in American politics. Even if you don’t use them for anything that’s predictive.” — Lenny Brauner (06:58)
• “I think we have a weird sense for how accurate polls should be… It’s kind of magical that polls are as good as they are.” — Lenny Brauner (26:33, 27:01)
• “People who vote by mail are generally higher propensity voters. So…it’s hard to disentangle all those things.” — Lenny Brauner (11:45)

Noteworthy Moments & Timestamps

• Addressing the Charlie Kirk assassination and political violence: (00:00–03:56)
• Announcement of podcast rebrand: (04:07)
• Breakdown of special election patterns and caution on overinterpreting: (06:01–09:23)
• Analysis of voter propensity changes: (07:21–08:44)
• In-depth on Norway’s election and cost of living as a key issue worldwide: (12:12–16:45)
• Discussion on the revival of wealth/capital taxation and far-right European momentum: (16:04–19:09)
• Mailbag begins – Trump’s polling changes and weighting explained: (20:25–24:36)
• Polls, spam calls, and social trust: (25:05–27:49)
• Preview cut-off - deeper dive into party popularity polls to follow: (27:49–28:15)

Tone and Style

Faithful to the podcast’s spirit, the conversation is analytical yet accessible, consistently blending data-driven rigor with humor, humility about uncertainty, and a clear sense of mission regarding civil discourse.

How to Continue Listening

The preview episode concludes with a call to become a paid subscriber for access to the full mailbag, discussions on the gender gap in young voters, Sherrod Brown’s Ohio odds, the impact of Americans abroad, and the use of AI in election forecasting.

Accessible at: GDPolitics.com