GD POLITICS Podcast

Elections To Watch In 2025

Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy Editor of Inside Elections
Air Date: October 9, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Galen Druke and guest Jacob Rubashkin deliver a comprehensive preview of the most pivotal elections taking place across the U.S. in 2025. The discussion explores the high-profile gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey, the fiercely debated redistricting ballot measure in California, and the drama-laden New York City mayoral race. With politics in an “off-off-year,” the episode provides context, trends, and color on what shapes voter behavior in non-presidential years, why some races are unexpectedly close, and the scandals influencing down-ballot outcomes.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Blockbuster Races of 2025 (00:28)

• Main Races Highlighted:

  • Gubernatorial and legislative elections in Virginia and New Jersey
  • New York City mayoral race (a Cuomo vs. Mamdani rematch)
  • California’s expensive Prop 50 redistricting ballot initiative

• Quote:

  “Call it the Revenge of the Coast.”
  — Galen Druke [01:35]

2. Virginia Gubernatorial Race: Historical Patterns and Candidates (03:27)

• Historical Trend:

  • The party that wins the presidency almost always loses Virginia’s gubernatorial race the following year (except 2012/2013 cycle).
  • This trend puts Republicans at a disadvantage in 2025.

• Candidates:

  • Abigail Spanberger (D), former Congresswoman and ex-CIA officer, leading in polls.
  • Winsome Earl Sears (R), current Lieutenant Governor, poised to be the first Black woman governor in the U.S.

• Quote:

  “You look at the way that the contest between former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears has played out, and Spanberger seems like the pretty clear favorite heading into the last couple weeks of the election.”
  — Jacob Rubashkin [04:41]

• Polling Snapshot:

  • Spanberger leads by 7 points, betting markets give Democrats over a 90% chance (Decision Desk HQ).

3. Virginia: Republicans’ Hopes and Trump Dynamics (05:19)

• Republican Case to Victory:

  • Slight rightward movement in some communities since 2020
  • African-American, immigrant, and military-heavy regions see some Trump appeal
  • Sears’ potential as a historic candidate and Youngkin’s endorsement

• Quote:

  “Virginia is still a purple state. And with enough kind of tweaks at the margins and a number of different categories and areas of the state, you can get to a very narrow win.”
  — Jacob Rubashkin [06:41]

4. Comparing State Trends: Virginia vs. New Jersey (06:48)

• Swing Analysis:

  • New Jersey has shifted 10 points right since 2020, Virginia by 4.
  • Ironically, Democrats now seem safer in Virginia than in New Jersey.

• Quote:

  “There’s a bit more rightward momentum in New Jersey, which we’ll get to in a minute, than there is in Virginia.”
  — Galen Druke [07:25]

5. Spanberger & the Suburban Democratic Surge (07:58)

• Candidate Profile:

  • Spanberger is one of the “national security women” elected in 2018, beat notorious Republican Dave Bratt with a mix of CIA credentials and suburban mom appeal.
  • Benefited from the “suburban revolt” against early Trumpism in Virginia.

• Notable Background:

  “She was able to combine that profile as a CIA officer with her profile as a Girl Scout mom and a classic kind of suburban mother who was outraged over the actions that the Trump administration was taking on healthcare and other items in the 2018 elections.”
  — Jacob Rubashkin [09:29]

6. Impact of Federal Cuts and Shutdown on Virginia Politics (11:10)

• Economic Fallout:

  • “DOGE” (Department of Government Expenditures) cuts and federal shutdown are deeply unpopular in Virginia, especially in federal-worker-heavy Northern Virginia and military Hampton Roads.
  • Sears struggles to defend GOP on these issues.

• Quote:

  “So there is a real kind of economic sword of Damocles hanging over a big part of the Virginia economy right now. And voters blame Republicans for that.”
  — Jacob Rubashkin [12:46]

• Notable Moment:

  • When pressed on layoffs, Sears responded: “Well, who here hasn’t lost a job before?”
    — [11:49]

7. Down-Ballot Drama: Scandals in Virginia’s LG and AG Races (13:26)

• Lieutenant Governor Candidate Scandal (John Reid, R)

  • First openly gay GOP statewide candidate in Virginia, opposed by figures like Sears.
  • Accused of following pornographic and racist content on Tumblr, nude images surfaced; accuses state GOP of homophobia.
  • Notable Exchange:

    “This is such like a 2010s era scandal, you know, a candidate’s Tumblr page causing them all sorts of problems; but, you know, this is porn.”
    — Jacob Rubashkin [15:17]

• Attorney General Candidate Scandal (Jay Jones, D)

  • Texted a Republican colleague that if he had a gun and Hitler, Pol Pot, and Speaker Todd Gilbert stood before him, he’d “shoot Todd Gilbert twice”—wishing violence also on Gilbert’s family.
  • Reckless driving citation (120 mph in a 60), counted political work as community service.
  • Notable Moment:

    “It was a lot of really bad stuff... especially as he’s trying to be the state’s top law enforcement officer in a manner of weeks.”
    — Jacob Rubashkin [18:09]

8. Scandal Fallout: Possible Ticket-Splitting? (19:15)

• Uncertainty in Down-Ballot Contests:

  • Historically, state races move together, but scandal could create rare ticket-splitting.
  • No post-scandal polling yet; negative ad blitz just launched against Jay Jones.

• Quote:

  “If Spanberger is winning at the top of the ticket by less than eight points, perhaps that could put Jones in some real danger zone.”
  — Jacob Rubashkin [21:39]

9. Virginia House of Delegates: Democratic Advantage (22:05)

• Prediction:
  • Democrats defending a 3-seat majority, poised to gain, not lose.
  • Republican-held districts in suburban areas under major threat.
  • Quote:

    “I would anticipate we see a Democratic net gain in the state House, certainly more likely that we see Democrats pick up ground than Republicans regain control.”
    — Jacob Rubashkin [23:00]

10. New Jersey: Governors Race Now Competitive (23:09)

• Polling:
  • Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 5 points; betting markets 75–80% Democratic favored.
  • State moved more right than Virginia during Trump era.
• Candidates:
  • Sherrill and Ciattarelli both seen as party archetypes but with a New Jersey twist.
• Teased Topics (not included in preview):
  • Redistricting ballot measure in California (Prop 50)
  • New York City mayoral race (Cuomo vs. Mandani)

Most Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the “easy win” for Democrats in California:

  "A Democratic state is going to vote for Democrats to win more House seats. This is an incredibly easy argument for Newsom and the Democrats in California to make..."
  — [00:28]

• On enduring Virginia political chaos:

  “Honestly, it wouldn’t be a Virginia election if there wasn’t some sort of like Russian nesting doll of scandals...”
  — Galen Druke [13:30]

• On the New Jersey governor’s race:

  “Jack Ciattarelli plays into the stereotypes of New Jersey for any moment. First and foremost, fair.”
  — Jacob Rubashkin [23:59]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:28 – Overview of 2025’s major elections
• 03:27 – Virginia’s historical gubernatorial pattern and candidate rundown
• 05:19 – The Republican pathway in Virginia
• 06:48 – Virginia vs. New Jersey: Political shifts
• 07:58 – Abigail Spanberger’s bio and rise
• 11:10 – Local impact of federal cuts in Virginia
• 13:26 – Virginia statewide race scandals—John Reid and Jay Jones
• 19:15 – Ticket-splitting prospects amid scandal
• 22:05 – Virginia House of Delegates outlook
• 23:09 – New Jersey governor’s race setup

Tone

The conversation mixes rigorous electoral analysis with wry political humor, using sharp and sometimes sardonic commentary about candidate personalities and state-specific quirks. Both speakers bring detailed experience, with Jacob Rubashkin providing granular election knowledge and Galen Druke managing structure and comedic timing.