GD POLITICS

Episode: Epstein Fallout, The Shutdown Fight, And Gallup's Goodbye

Host: Galen Druke
Guests: Mary Radcliffe (Head of Research, 50 Plus One), Lenny Brauner (Senior Data Scientist, Washington Post)
Date: February 12, 2026

Overview

This episode of GD Politics dives into three major political stories: the end of the iconic Gallup presidential approval polling series, the looming Department of Homeland Security shutdown fight (and its implications for immigration enforcement), and the political fallout from the release of Jeffrey Epstein’s files. The show’s signature mix of data-driven analysis, skepticism, and humor permeates an episode packed with polling insights, strategic takes, and memorable banter.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Cold Open: AI Anxiety or Not?

Timestamps: [00:00–01:10]

• Topic: The hosts briefly riff on the wave of “freakouts” over AI and whether they’re personally worried.
  • Mary isn’t that anxious, noting, “There is a team of people literally trying to make AI do my job and it sucks.” ([00:14])
  • Lenny is less sanguine: “I think we are about to go through something quite weird... I’m concerned on a personal level, a political level, a societal level. There are many different levels of concern here.” ([00:41])
• Tone: Playful and candid. The topic is tabled for a future episode.

2. Gallup’s Goodbye: 88 Years of Presidential Approval Polling Ends

Timestamps: [01:10–09:41]

The Announcement

• Gallup will stop tracking presidential approval and all political figure favorability ratings after 88 years, giving President Trump’s final approval rating at 36%. ([01:10])
• Gallup’s rationale: these rankings are “widely produced, aggregated, and interpreted”; they want to focus on long-term, methodologically sound research on broader issues.
• Not a response to political pressure, according to Gallup.

Analysis: Is this “Good Data, Bad Data, or Not Data?”

• Mary Radcliffe:
  • “Losing this series is obviously, sadly, a not data situation.” ([04:17])
  • She laments the loss of a consistent, long-term data series: “It’s useful to say, okay, we have the same methodology over time that we can compare X and Y. That’s gone.” ([04:17])
  • Notes Gallup’s methodological shift in recent years toward global polling and less focus on U.S. political surveys.
• Lenny Brauner:
  • “It is not data. It is bad for data. And Gallup General produces good data. I feel like that’s a nice… it hits all three.” ([07:02])
  • Points out the poll aggregator era (“the 538 average”) has diminished individual polls’ influence and publicity.
• Galen Druke:
  • Summarizes the economic realities: “If they’re not getting that publicity... that may even hurt business.”
  • Gallup’s other indices and global research may get more traction these days.
  • “We say goodbye to 88 years of Gallup presidential approval tracking… It is still a loss for the polling community and a loss for good data.” ([09:41])

Notable Quote:

• Mary Radcliffe: “The long running is vanishing is pretty disappointing.” ([04:17])
• Lenny Brauner: “Polling aggregation has kind of taken the umph out of any one particular poll.” ([07:02])

3. The DHS Shutdown Fight: Can Democrats Leverage Public Opinion?

Timestamps: [09:41–18:32]

Context

• The Department of Homeland Security faces a shutdown if funding isn’t secured by Friday, nearly three weeks after the killing of Alex Preddy.
• Democrats and Republicans are negotiating, mainly over issues of immigration enforcement.

Polling on ICE and Immigration Enforcement

• Lenny:
  • Polling shows Trump’s handling of immigration is at a -13 net approval (from YouGov).
  • Abolishing ICE: 47% approve, 42% disapprove (YouGov, little change post-event).
  • NBC poll: 66% somewhat or strongly disapprove of ICE, 34% approve; plurality wants to “reform” rather than abolish or keep as is.
• Galen:
  • Draws parallels to polling shifts after gun violence (support for change spikes, then recedes).
  • Notes: “We remain relatively in the political moment that we have been in since Alex Preddy's killing.”

Are Democrats’ Demands Popular?

• Mary:
  • Reviewed polling on 8 of the 10 Democratic demands regarding ICE and enforcement.
  • “None of them are below 60% support with the American people. And some are much, much higher.”
    • Targeted enforcement/judicial warrants: 69% support (YouGov, GBAO)
    • Body cams: 84% support (YouGov)
    • Use of force standards: 70–76% support (Navigator Research)
• Caveats:
  • Many polls cited are commissioned by Democratic-leaning organizations, but interest in these questions is currently on the left.
  • Mary: “Each individual piece of this plan seems to be quite popular with the American people.” ([13:28])

Notable Quote:

• Mary Radcliffe: “On that targeted enforcement requiring judicial warrants, GBAO and YouGov economist both show 69% of Americans support that.” ([13:28])
• Mary Radcliffe: “Body cams… YouGov economist 84% of Americans saying they support body cams.” ([13:28])

But Will Policy Change Happen?

• Mary:
  • “It is pretty rare for policy change to come through a shutdown process.” ([16:09])
  • Warns that support for individual pieces doesn’t always translate to support for a bundled package.
  • “My suspicion is there maybe is a compromise to be reached here… but I don’t think they’re going to get this whole package.” ([16:57])
• Galen/Lenny:
  • The practical effects of a shutdown may not clearly benefit Democrats:
    • Most DHS agencies affected are not core Republican priorities (e.g., TSA, cybersecurity).
    • ICE is already funded and will not shut down.
    • Shutdown pain may be spread across programs Democrats also support.

Notable Moment:

• Lenny Brauner: “It is unclear to me whether Democrats are really able to turn up the heat here in a way that they would like to, even if they feel that they have… public backing.” ([17:36])
• Mary Radcliffe: “Are we going to close airports over this issue? I don't know. The public likes to support things that they like unless it affects them negatively.” ([18:14])

4. Epstein Fallout: The Hard Issue for Trump

Timestamps: [18:32–20:09]

Congressional Spectacle & Political Approval

• Attorney General Pam Bondi testified before Congress about the Epstein investigation as DOJ released millions of pages of evidence.
• Galen:
  • “Trump’s handling of the Epstein files is perhaps his worst overall issue. At net negative 34 approval per YouGov, inflation is at net negative 28.”
  • “But he’s improved. He was at negative 42 in September.” ([19:41])
• Mary:
  • Mentions her tracking of Trump’s approval on numerous issues, prepping to contextualize Epstein’s polling in comparison to other hot-button topics.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There is a team of people literally trying to make AI do my job and it sucks.” – Mary Radcliffe ([00:14])
• “Polling aggregation has kind of taken the umph out of any one particular poll.” – Lenny Brauner ([07:02])
• “Are we going to close airports over this issue? I don't know. The public likes to support things that they like unless it affects them negatively.” – Mary Radcliffe ([18:14])
• “Trump’s handling of the Epstein files is perhaps his worst overall issue. At net negative 34 approval per YouGov...” – Galen Druke ([19:41])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• AI Anxiety and Banter – [00:00–01:10]
• Gallup Ends Presidential Approval Polling – [01:10–09:41]
• DHS Shutdown & ICE Reform Polling – [09:41–18:32]
• Epstein Files & Trump’s Numbers – [18:32–20:09]

Takeaways

• The loss of Gallup’s presidential approval series is both methodologically and symbolically significant for political polling, with economic and structural forces in the industry driving the decision.
• Public opinion heavily favors many Democratic proposals on immigration enforcement reform, but that rarely translates directly into legislative victories—especially in high-stakes, polarized shutdown scenarios.
• The Epstein files pose a serious approval challenge for Trump, but even this may be muted compared to previous months.
• The episode was cut short for non-subscribers; further discussion on New Jersey primaries, Senate control, and the youth vote for Trump is teased for premium listeners.