Galen Darouc (1:41)

Nathaniel and Mary are hosting. I am still largely ignorant to what happened during the two weeks that I was away. And I will also say for the record that it is currently 2 o' clock in the morning for my jet lagged brain, so I'm a little bit nervous. But, Mary, take the reins.

Mary Radcliffe (2:00)

Thanks, Galen. So a lot has happened while you've been away and Nathaniel and I have devised a little game for you.

Galen Darouc (2:07)

Okay.

Mary Radcliffe (2:08)

You should see this as a great gesture of respect that we think you are savvy enough to just guess the news.

Galen Darouc (2:15)

I literally didn't know that this is what we were doing. By the way, folks, I'm coming into this totally blind.

Mary Radcliffe (2:20)

We have a series of questions for you about things that happened in American politics over the last two weeks. Some are obviously gonna be a little more serious and we can Spend a little bit of time chatting about some of the topics as we go. And when all this is done, we'll send you all our notes with all the links so you can watch all the clips we talk about. Read the reporting yourself. Sound good?

Galen Darouc (2:39)

Okay.

Mary Radcliffe (2:40)

Ready?

Galen Darouc (2:40)

Sounds good. I will. I do want to say one caveat. I've turned it into a little bit where I've just been going around asking people if we're still at war. So I know that we're still at war because people have told me that. But that's. That's most of what I know.

Mary Radcliffe (2:53)

Well, we are here to fill in the gaps for you, Kaylin.

Galen Darouc (2:56)

Appreciate it.

Mary Radcliffe (2:57)

And we are going to start off with what first Lady Melania has been up to. So, on March 25, Melania Trump held an event at the White House accompanied by a special guest. Who was that guest? Was it A, Sydney Sweeney, B, Dwayne the Rock Johnson, or C, an AI powered humanoid robot?

Galen Darouc (3:22)

It was C, an AI powered humanoid robot.

Mary Radcliffe (3:26)

You got it.

Nathaniel Rakic (3:27)

Because.

Galen Darouc (3:28)

Did you know that? I think I saw something about this, but also, there's just no way it would be Sydney Sweeney. Her PR folks wouldn't let her do that. And Dwayne the Rock Johnson I think is kind of lib. And so I feel like a humanoid robot is just weird enough for it to make sense. And also, I think we have the most pro robot administration or pro AI administration in American history. So I guess that probably also fits.

Mary Radcliffe (3:57)

Yes, you are right. It was an AI powered humanoid robot. The event was highlighting uses of AI potentially in education. And they have a robot called figure 3 that is intended to potentially replace human teachers in some circumstances. Do you think we should have human educators for our children? Galen?

Galen Darouc (4:17)

Whoa. I didn't realize that I was going to be forced to give my opinion on the topics that I missed while I was drawing.

Mary Radcliffe (4:24)

You don't have to answer.

Galen Darouc (4:25)

I think that if we are going to have robot teachers, we need a better name than figure three.

Mary Radcliffe (4:30)

Yeah, that's.

Nathaniel Rakic (4:31)

Yeah, that's a great words. Was there a figure one, A figure two? Is this like one of those, like, frat pranks where they released three robots and only one said figure three? And they're like, where's figure one and figure two?

Mary Radcliffe (4:42)

I don't know. I mean, I guess it could be.

Galen Darouc (4:45)

You know how they were thinking of giving teachers guns? They gave figure three a gun, and then figure one and figure two never made it to the press conference because figure three had a gun.

Nathaniel Rakic (4:54)

It's going to be fine, guys. All Right. Well, well done, Galen. You're one for one. I've got a more serious. Well, the question is kind of. It's darkly amusing, but it's on a serious topic. So on March 24, we got a new Secretary of Homeland Security. As you may know, it's Mark Wayne Mullen, the former Oklahoma senator.

Galen Darouc (5:14)

I'm not actually even sure that I knew that.

Nathaniel Rakic (5:16)

Okay, well, so I did.

Galen Darouc (5:17)

I didn't know that. Okay.

Nathaniel Rakic (5:19)

He didn't like on the screen.

Galen Darouc (5:21)

Congratulations, Mark Wayne.

Nathaniel Rakic (5:23)

Yeah, there you go.

Galen Darouc (5:24)

He's the one who deserves the applause.

Nathaniel Rakic (5:26)

So at the press conference introducing him on March 24, Trump noted that Mullen was the only Native American in the Senate. Mullen is a member of the Cherokee Nation. How did Trump react to that fact? A.

Galen Darouc (5:42)

He said, wait, can I guess right now? Did he call out Elizabeth Warren?

Nathaniel Rakic (5:45)

He did not. That would have been a good. I should have at. That should have been one of my options. That was really a missed opportunity. No, the options are a, quote, the Native Americans, they love me. I won them huge in the last election.

Galen Darouc (5:59)

I don't think it was that one. I don't think it was that.

Nathaniel Rakic (6:02)

I better watch out. No, that's okay. He's one of the good ones. Oh, my God. C. I didn't know that. Let me look at you. Well, I think that's all right.

Galen Darouc (6:12)

I think it was. I think it's. I think it's the last one.

Nathaniel Rakic (6:16)

That's correct.

Mary Radcliffe (6:17)

Two for two, Galen.

Galen Darouc (6:19)

Yes.

Nathaniel Rakic (6:19)

Well done, well done. Good instincts.

Galen Darouc (6:21)

Wait, can you say the answer one more time?

Nathaniel Rakic (6:23)

Yes. He said, I didn't know that. Let me look at you. Then he took a minute and looked at him and he said, well, I think that's all right.

Mary Radcliffe (6:31)

To be clear, these were Donald Trump's own notes introducing Mark Wayne Mullen.

Galen Darouc (6:37)

Yes.

Nathaniel Rakic (6:38)

Which he clearly had not read previously. But anyway, so. Yes. So we have a new Secretary of Homeland Security. He was confirmed 54 to 45. There was one Republican vote against him. That was Rand Paul, who famously has had a beef with Mullen. And two Democrats voted for him, John Fetterman and Martin Heinrich from New Mexico, which was kind of a curveball. But apparently Heinrich and Mullen were close friends in the Senate. And Heinrich said that he had faith in his friend.

Galen Darouc (7:03)

I would have gotten Fetterman, but I wouldn't have gotten the other one. Do we know what the former Secretary of Homeland Security is up to now?

Mary Radcliffe (7:11)

Kristi Noem. She got a new made up job.

Galen Darouc (7:14)

Okay.

Nathaniel Rakic (7:14)

All right.

Mary Radcliffe (7:15)

She's like, congratulations to her. What's it called the Shield of America?

Nathaniel Rakic (7:19)

Oh, that's right. What was it?

Galen Darouc (7:22)

Is it our Golden Dome?

Nathaniel Rakic (7:24)

It's a new security initiative aimed at combating drug cartels and transnational crime in the Western Hemisphere.

Galen Darouc (7:30)

All right. All right. Okay. On a roll here. I'm excited.

Mary Radcliffe (7:33)

Yeah. So, yeah, this is a little more serious topic, so I think, you know, it's worth highlighting some of the differences between Mullen and Noem. So at his confirmation hearing, at least, Mullen said that he would stop, for example, the practice of entering homes without a judicial warrant. He talked more about working with jails and prisons rather than, like, this street approach to immigration. So he seems much more in the Tom Homan camp of immigration enforcement than the NOME camp. So that's what I think we can expect based on the confirmation hearing going forward from Homeland Security and particularly on immigration enforcement. Nathaniel, do you want to talk a little about our new Oklahoma senator?

Nathaniel Rakic (8:14)

Yeah. Yeah.

Galen Darouc (8:15)

Ooh.

Nathaniel Rakic (8:15)

So, obviously, think about that. Exactly. Yes. So with Mullen departing, Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt has appointed a new senator. His name is Alan Armstrong. He is a former oil executive, and he is perhaps doesn't have the, like, strongest, like, conservative or at least MAGA y credentials. So he was previously appointed to the National Infrastructure Advisory Council by President Joe Biden, and he also donated to Adam Kinzinger after his impeachment vote following January 6th. And what was actually, I thought was very interesting about this was that Kevin Stitt, who himself is not very Trumpy, this is the Oklahoma governor who had the power to appoint the new senator, actually went to Mar a Lago with arms, and they did kind of like a final interview, basically before he was appointed. So I think it's very interesting, just from, like, a separation of powers perspective, that, like, this guy Armstrong had to convince Trump that, you know, these. Presumably, we don't know what was said in that interview, but presumably that these kind of apoposties were behind him. And. But obviously it went well. And. And he got appointed to the Senate.

Galen Darouc (9:19)

So, yeah, after the Zoran Mamdani embrace, I kind of have faith that anybody who shows up to Mar A Lago in a good mood can, you know, win. Win over the President at least a little bit.

Mary Radcliffe (9:31)

Yeah. And. And Armstrong won't be around all that long. He has said he is not going to seek election in the special election to replace Mullen. So he's just a caretaker until that

Nathaniel Rakic (9:40)

election takes place, which will be this November. Cool. Okay. Two for two.

Mary Radcliffe (9:47)

All right, here's your next one in a phone interview with the Five. On March 26, Trump said, quote, no Republican has ever gotten the gay vote like I did. I did very well with the gay vote. What factor did he attribute his success with the gay vote to? Was it A.

Galen Darouc (10:07)

Wait, can I guess?

Mary Radcliffe (10:08)

Sure.

Galen Darouc (10:09)

Having good hair?

Mary Radcliffe (10:10)

No, that's okay.

Galen Darouc (10:12)

All right.

Mary Radcliffe (10:12)

Okay, let me read you the options. Is it A, his friendship with Scott Bessett?

Nathaniel Rakic (10:17)

Hmm.

Mary Radcliffe (10:18)

B, the Trump dance. And you can cut this if you want to, but I think of it as the double jerk off dance.

Galen Darouc (10:26)

Okay. All right. Thank you. Got that visual.

Mary Radcliffe (10:30)

C, being from Florida. Or D, playing the gay national anthem as his walk off song.

Galen Darouc (10:37)

Is that ymca?

Mary Radcliffe (10:39)

I would think so, yeah.

Nathaniel Rakic (10:40)

That's how I took it. Yeah.

Galen Darouc (10:42)

Oh, boy. These are. These are good options. I am going to. I feel like it's either YMCA or Scott Besant, and I. I think it was the last option for the past two, so I'm gonna go with the first option here. Is it his friendship with Scott Besant?

Nathaniel Rakic (10:58)

So close.

Mary Radcliffe (10:59)

It was.

Galen Darouc (11:00)

Was it ymca?

Mary Radcliffe (11:01)

Yes. Yes. Which he did call the gay national anthem. My favorite part of this interview, by the way, is as he's having this conversation. The chyron on Fox News says, president Trump on conflict in Iran.

Galen Darouc (11:14)

God bless.

Mary Radcliffe (11:15)

Which, and just for the record, because I am the polls person, Pew Research did a poll of LGBTQ adults in January of 2025, right before Trump took office, and 8% of them identified as Republicans. So I don't know if Donald Trump did so well with the gay vote in 20.

Galen Darouc (11:34)

Okay. In 2020. I know this because, well, at least I've looked at exit polls. He did better than, I think, any Republican since exit polls began. He got about a third of gay Americans in 2020, and he campaigned to gay people like Marla Maples and Tiffany Trump were, I think, as tasked with the gay, like, you know, jitting up the gay vote. And Donald Trump, famously the first American president ever to enter office supporting same sex marriage, kind of, as with several different areas of policy, has run counter to Republican orthodoxy.

Mary Radcliffe (12:16)

Yeah. Okay. Something a little more serious. Last week, the partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security was in its sixth week. And we started to feel this a little bit at America's airports. So during that time, how long was the wait for security at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport on Wednesday and Thursday of last week? Do you want to guess or do you want options?

Galen Darouc (12:44)

Okay, I will just say, for my part, did not have any issues with TSA during the travel. Everything went very smoothly. Bless up. Thank you. TSA Homeland Security, et cetera. My guess is three hours. I don't know where I'm pulling that from, but that maybe that feels low for it to have made this game, but that's, that's my first instinct.

Mary Radcliffe (13:03)

No, you're pretty close, actually. Okay, should we give it to him, Nathaniel?

Nathaniel Rakic (13:08)

Let's give him the last two options and see if we can choose between them.

Mary Radcliffe (13:12)

Choose between these options. Was it either two hours or four hours?

Galen Darouc (13:16)

Ooh, four hours.

Mary Radcliffe (13:18)

Yes. Yes. Okay, so this is now officially the longest shutdown in American history. Last year's shutdown was 43 days. And on Saturday we hit day 44 of this baby. So last week the, like lack of funding for TSA really started, started to hit America's airports. It was the first week that TSA agents missed a full paycheck. We had call out rates as high as 40% at some of the airports around the country. Over 500 TSA agents quit. It was a big mess. Finally, the initial response from the Trump administration on March 21 was to send ICE agents to airports to help support the TSA in security functions, which I assume you can imagine did not go over swimmingly with the American public.

Nathaniel Rakic (14:05)

Do we have a poll on that? Actually, Mary, I probably sorry to derail,

Galen Darouc (14:10)

but I mean, CBP is already in the airport, so maybe people don't think it's that strange. I don't know.

Nathaniel Rakic (14:15)

I mean, obviously they're doing different things, but. Yes.

Galen Darouc (14:19)

Yeah, CBP is trying to snatch.

Nathaniel Rakic (14:21)

But ICE was like literally like checking, you know, like the thing when you like you hand on the IDs and you like, you know, ICE was doing.

Galen Darouc (14:26)

They're not just trying to snag your weed gummies.

Mary Radcliffe (14:28)

Yeah, I don't think I actually do actually if I would have to dig for it because it was such a brief period of time. So that was Saturday, March 21st. On Friday, March 27th, Trump signed an executive order doing his favorite thing, declaring a national emergency so that he can move funds unilaterally. Potentially is not technically legal, but no one's going to challenge it because everybody likes it. So he instructed DHS to start paying TSA agents. In the background of all of this, of course, Congress is trying to make a deal to figure out how to handle this. Senate Republicans had brought a compromise to Trump where they could fund most of dhs, just not including ice, basically that Democrats had agreed to. And Trump said he would not sign it. The Senate went ahead and passed it unanimously, 100 to nothing, which is incredible,

Nathaniel Rakic (15:21)

is by a voice vote. So it's like technically a little different. It's not like they all got up there and said, yes, I want this. But they, you know, they were like, you know, any objections? And nobody did.

Mary Radcliffe (15:31)

It went over to the House who refused to go along with it, passed their own bill, which is a 60 day continuing resolution that would fund all of DHS, including ICE. And then Mike Johnson sent everybody home on recess. So we still have no resolution to this ongoing shutdown. It sounds like for now we expect TSA agents to start getting paid again. It's going to take some time probably for airports to get back to normal though, because as we mentioned, there was hundreds of TSA agents quit. So it's still quite a lovely mess.

Nathaniel Rakic (16:05)

Yeah, I believe. I mean, yeah, both chambers are out of town now and they're basically saying that each other's plans are non starter. So it just doesn't feel like this is going to get resolved anytime soon. But you know, obviously these things have happened before and you know, the solutions come out of the nowhere. But I did think it was interesting that the Senate basically, your Senate Republicans basically caved on what was it like Friday or Saturday? And John Thune was basically like, yeah, like, you know, we don't really like the solution, but like clearly the pressure at the airports, like that, those are the kind of. We talked about this during the shutdown, the previous shutdown. That is the kind of really bad headline that I think can really force politicians to act in a way that a lot of other things can't. Okay, now to a more fun question. So on March 27th, the White House hosted an event highlighting what they say is progress supporting American farmers. At that event, they announced a website you can use to see the steps they've made in support of this one.

Galen Darouc (17:06)

I don't want to cheat.

Mary Radcliffe (17:08)

No, ask him anyway.

Nathaniel Rakic (17:09)

All right, all right. What is that website? Is it A, farmville.gov, is it B, onlyfarms. Gov, C, farmbase.gov or D Farm Dual?

Galen Darouc (17:23)

It is Only Farms. And the reason I saw this is because, I mean, I did open Twitter briefly at some point over the weekend and somebody was saying like, you could have called it CornHub and you called it Only Farms, which I think is a good critique. Like, if you're gonna go there, go there.

Mary Radcliffe (17:45)

Cornhub is beautiful.

Nathaniel Rakic (17:46)

I like them both. Personally. I don't know.

Galen Darouc (17:48)

It's worth it. The White House is really getting loose these days. I mean, not that it's ever not been loose, but it feels like it's really Just yoloing it all the way. And honestly, like, we keep talking about Trump's approval rating and how the public is reacting and blah, blah, blah, blah. But it's no secret for him or for us that he's not running for president ever again. I don't really think he cares that much about J.D. vance's career or frankly, Marco Rubio's career. And so I think we're seeing a YOLO presidency like we've never seen it before.

Mary Radcliffe (18:19)

Yeah.

Nathaniel Rakic (18:20)

I'll also say that, like, I think that this is the kind of thing that show. I mean, you know, we've talked about before about, you know, whatever you might think about Trump's policies. You know, he is, like, funny, he's a comedian and.

Galen Darouc (18:32)

And a master of attention. Right. Like, there's no way in a Biden administration people would learn about some farm subsidy, like, website, blah, blah, blah.

Nathaniel Rakic (18:40)

That's true. We're talking about it on this podcast.

Galen Darouc (18:42)

Exactly.

Nathaniel Rakic (18:43)

So. And yeah, and obviously, I think this is the kind of thing that, like, people aren't going to be like, oh, my gosh, this is a terrible. You know, like, this is inappropriate. You know, maybe some people will say that, but I think it's kind of a fun way to do it. It's worth noting, too, that it is not like they built a whole website around it that just redirects to the White House's page on agriculture. So. But thought it was a fun one.

Galen Darouc (19:05)

I don't think I get that point because I knew the answer.

Mary Radcliffe (19:09)

Because you cheated.

Nathaniel Rakic (19:10)

No, I think a lot of fun. I think it's fine, you know, you knew going in, so I think that's fair. It is pre existing knowledge. All right. You're doing very well. Four. Four correct and one incorrect. Okay. Next is a serious question indeed. Okay, so this is on, you know, probably the most serious topic that happened while you were away, which, of course is the continuing, as you noted, war in Iran. At a news conference on March 24, Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave an update on US Operations in Iran. Which of the following happened at that news conference. A. Trump said, people don't like me using the word war, so I won't. But the Democrats call it a war.

Galen Darouc (19:53)

Okay, that's b. Yeah.

Nathaniel Rakic (19:56)

Hegseth said, we see ourselves as part of this negotiation as well. We negotiate with bombs.

Galen Darouc (20:02)

Okay. Also sounds. Sounds.

Nathaniel Rakic (20:04)

See, Hegseth said, we're keeping our hand on that throttle as long and as hard as is necessary while making thrusting motions with his fist. While Trump raised his eyebrows okay, it's

Galen Darouc (20:17)

going to be all of the above

Nathaniel Rakic (20:18)

or D. Trump said Hegseth and General Raisin Cain were disappointed to hear his plans to end the war quickly. And you are correct that it is all of the above. All of those things happened. It was an eventful couple of weeks for Iran and it was a very eventful news conference.

Galen Darouc (20:36)

Can I just, can I ask for a second? Because I did my bit with a friend over the weekend. I was like, by the way, are we still at war? And he was like, yeah. And my friend's Australian. He was like, yeah. And by the way, it looks like you're invading Iran this week. Are we invading Iran this week? Because I was like, okay, you can, you can tell me a little bit of what you know, but I'm not supposed to really be looking at the news, so don't give me too many details. So, okay, professionals. Are we invading Iran?

Mary Radcliffe (21:06)

Maybe.

Nathaniel Rakic (21:07)

I mean, yeah, like we're never. I don't. I think we've learned not to rule anything out. I continue to imagine that that would be. That's, that's a very out there possibility. But no, there has been reporting, you know, they're not ruling anything out, which, you know, is not necessarily surprising. You know, Trump is, is trying to kind of get concessions out of Iran, as we'll talk about. But, you know, there has been reporting that the, the Pentagon is preparing for like weeks of ground operations in Iran. So tbd, it's still very, a very live issue in a way that, like Venezuela, for instance, was not, which I think is notable.

Mary Radcliffe (21:38)

Yeah, we've moved, what is it, some 5,000 troops above what we normally have in the Middle East. Into the Middle East. I hope I have that number right. I saw this morning reporting that, or maybe this was yesterday, reporting that the head of the Marines had sent out letters to soldiers in the area telling them to prepare their families, said they might be entering active combat. So maybe has the.

Galen Darouc (22:03)

Sorry, I don't want to snatch the hosting microphone back from you guys, but has the polling changed much on the war in Iran during the past two weeks?

Nathaniel Rakic (22:14)

So funny you should mention that.

Mary Radcliffe (22:15)

What's happened with the polling is actually really interesting. The number of Americans who say they support action in Iran has been essentially flat. What's happened is as undecideds get off the fence, they basically all go to disapprove. So if you look at approval on Iran. I just pulled all the polls that asked about Trump's approval rating on Iran. This is Trump's approval, not approval of the war. In January it was underwater by 12 points. In February it was underwater by 13 points. In March it's underwater by 16 points. So it's just like drifting away from Trump there. I think there's also like some interesting new stuff that's been coming out in the polling that we weren't really able to ask about before. So Fox News last week in, in their poll asked people how they thought it going. 47% said they thought it was going well, 52% said they thought it was not going well. So we're really very split on that. Obviously you have like the predictable partisan splits between Democrats and Republicans. Independents were underwater 38 points on whether they thought the war was going well, 31 to 69. So yes, there's polling, it's still pretty split. You still have most Republicans supporting the president on this, but support for, for Boots on the Ground is still like deeply underwater. That hasn't really changed in any way since, since you left.

Nathaniel Rakic (23:35)

Our friend of the podcast, Nate Silver over at Silver Bulletin actually did something interesting. He debuted a tracker of support for the war in Iran. And as of this morning, support was at an average of 38.5% and opposition was at an average of 53.9%. And to Mary's point, the support number has really basically just been flat like right around 40% since the tracking began at the beginning of the month. And then opposition has kind of steadily increased from below 50% to now being kind of just above 50%.

Mary Radcliffe (24:09)

Yeah, I would flag to treat a tracker like that. I haven't looked at the methodology that they are using at Silver Bulletin, but I know we did similar stuff at 5:38. One thing to be careful with with a tracker like that is that question wording makes a huge difference in how people respond to these questions. So I have seen, for example, pollsters doing an experiment where they'll just ask half the sample, do you approve or disapprove of the current military action in Iran? And they'll ask the other half, do you approve or disapprove of military action in Iran to prevent the Iranian government from developing a nuclear weapon. Those are very different question wordings that get sort of different looking responses. So like a note of caution that this is very tricky business when we're, when we're looking at a non standard question like this. But I still think there is some usefulness there in that visual representation of that disapproval going up.

Galen Darouc (25:01)

What about overall, are we going to get to this? I was going to ask what about overall approval for Trump, we will get to it. Oh, okay. All right, all right, all right.

Nathaniel Rakic (25:11)

I do just want to, you know, get you caught up on kind of the latest developments in the war as well. So on March 23, Trump announced a halt to bombing Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure for five days for negotiations.

Mary Radcliffe (25:23)

So basically before that, he announced he was going to bomb power plants.

Nathaniel Rakic (25:28)

Right, Sorry, yes, maybe you missed that part too. Right. So they were targeting, they were going to target the energy infrastructure. And then they said, no, jk, we're going to hold off on that and we want to give you time to chat with us. Basically. The Trump administration has had this evolving list of goals for the war in Iran. So for instance, at the beginning of the month, Marco Rubio mentioned three big ones which were basically destroying Iran's missile capabilities, destroying the factories that make those missiles, and also destroying their navy. Then at the news conference that I mentioned, Trump articulated five goals which included those things, plus destroying the Air Force, which he lumped in with the Navy. He said, we're never going to allow them to get nuclear weapons and we're also going to protect our Middle Eastern allies. And then there has been reporting by the New York Times last week as well that the US has presented them with a 15 point plan. So we don't really know what those negotiations kind of the content of them. We do know that the kind of pause in bombing has been extended at. Right. Kind of at the last minute. Before that, five days was going to be up. Trump said that he was going to extend it by 10 days. So the new kind of date, expiration date for that is April 6th. So I guess stay tuned.

Mary Radcliffe (26:35)

Yeah, and to be clear, that's just bombing, specifically energy infrastructure. We continue bombing all kinds of other things. Iran is still like closely guarding the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly taking bribes of, what is it, a million dollars per ship to go through the Strait. So if you want to get through the Strait, you have to give the Iranian government money directly.

Galen Darouc (26:56)

This was big news. And I did actually read Japanese news while I was away and ended up talking to a Japanese political scientist. That conversation will air, I believe later this week in the podcast feed. But Japan experienced its highest ever gas price on record while I was there. And something like 98% of their oil comes from. I forget if it's the Middle east or specifically the Strait of Hormuz, but it's had a massive impact on Asia and Japan in particular.

Nathaniel Rakic (27:28)

I mean, and. And obviously here as well. So according to AAA, average national gas prices were up to $3.98 on Thursday, which was up 10 cents from exactly a week earlier. And crude oil prices have also hit record highs as of Friday.

Mary Radcliffe (27:43)

The other thing I would highlight here that's like, been very muddled in, in what's going on is it's very unclear who the Trump admin negotiating with. So at some point Trump announced that he was in the middle of a negotiation. The Iranian government said, no, we're not actually negotiating with you right now. So there's been some, like, really unclear picture of, like, who's in charge of this alleged negotiation? Is there a negotiation even happening? And like, who's arguing on. On the behalf of the Iranian government. Like, that's all very unclear. Anytime Trump says something about it, the Iranian government basically says, like, that's not exactly true. So it's all very mess.

Galen Darouc (28:23)

Which presumably we don't trust the Iranian government either.

Mary Radcliffe (28:27)

Well, I mean, you have to pick who you think is lying. Is Donald Trump lying or is the Iranian government lying? Like, which of these liars is lying?

Nathaniel Rakic (28:33)

Or both of them.

Mary Radcliffe (28:34)

Or both of them.

Galen Darouc (28:34)

Or both of them. We probably both have incentives to kind of play the other one. I'm not really sure. But anyway. Okay, so we might be invading. We're on pause for energy infrastructure. It's not popular. And life goes on.

Mary Radcliffe (28:49)

Yes, with much higher gas prices.

Galen Darouc (28:50)

With much higher. Right, exactly. Today's podcast is brought to you by you, the listeners. Without paid subscribers, GD Politics simply wouldn't exist. Your support means that we can make an independent podcast guided by curiosity, rigor, and a sense of humor, and that we can have conversations like the one we're having on today's episode. Paid subscribers get about twice the number of episodes and can join in the paid subscriber chat to pass along questions for us to discuss on the show. You can also connect your personal feed to your your favorite podcast player so you get every episode wherever you listen to podcasts. Become a paid subscriber today@gdpolitics.com we've got plenty of great stuff in store coming your way in 2026, so it's a great time to join the crew@gdpolitics.com we hope to see you there.

Mary Radcliffe (29:39)

All right. During a cabinet meeting, Trump said that he was the, quote, highest polling person and joked that after the presidency he might run for president. In which nation is it? A, Mexico, B, Venezuela, C, Canada, or D, Ukraine?

Galen Darouc (30:00)

Okay, so I definitely didn't see this. My instinct is Venezuela because it seems to make the most sense in terms of Feasibility, like, does Trump want to be president of Canada? I mean, I guess theoretically he does

Mary Radcliffe (30:14)

because there is no president.

Galen Darouc (30:16)

Canada, United States, I am going to say. But also Ukraine kind of makes sense too, because I think he feels like, okay, we've given so much to Ukraine that, you know, I could plausibly claim that I ought to be the king of Ukraine. Okay, it's Venezuela or Ukraine. I'm going to go. Okay. At the last minute, I'm gonna go Ukraine.

Mary Radcliffe (30:40)

You had it to stop.

Nathaniel Rakic (30:41)

You talked yourself out of it.

Galen Darouc (30:43)

No, it's Venezuela.

Nathaniel Rakic (30:44)

It's Venice.

Galen Darouc (30:45)

Yeah, okay.

Mary Radcliffe (30:46)

Yeah. The full quote is, I may run against Delsey. It's an option. You know, they like me in Venezuela.

Galen Darouc (30:54)

I mean, what about like a co presidency kind of thing? Delsey and Donald? You could almost see. You could almost see it being a reality show.

Mary Radcliffe (31:03)

Yeah, sadly, I think a lot of people would watch that.

Galen Darouc (31:06)

Sadly. What are you talking about? I would watch that in a heartbeat.

Mary Radcliffe (31:09)

I will say that, you know, he's not actually wrong that Venezuelans do like him. When they had over 90% of Venezuelans that were grateful said they were grateful in polling for him ousting Maduro.

Nathaniel Rakic (31:21)

I will also say when I was on vacation a couple of weeks ago, I was in Miami for the World Baseball Classic, which Venezuela won. And the very pro Venezuela crowd was also chanting anti Maduro things. And Trump, his reaction to Venezuela winning the World Baseball Classic was to send a truth social post that just said statehood.

Galen Darouc (31:41)

While I was in Japan, I saw someone wearing a Trump Make America great again T shirt like a Japanese person, not an American on vacation. So, you know, there are, there's, there's support in all different kinds of pockets in surprising places.

Mary Radcliffe (31:57)

Okay. In a speech to a Saudi investment meeting on March 27, Trump interrupted himself to play a clip of which media figure Was it A, Harry Enton, friend of the pod, discussing polls on cnn? Was it B, Ben Shapiro discussing the war in Iran on his podcast? Was it C, Jesse Waters defending tariffs on Fox News? Or D, Bari Weiss explaining why she cut CBS News radio wait to a

Galen Darouc (32:29)

group of Saudi investors? Okay, so I believe that there's some Saudi investment in CBS or the broader project. Maybe I'm totally wrong on that. But my first instinct is Harry Enton because that is obviously the funniest for our purposes. Otherwise, like, why would we be, why would we be talking about him playing a video like Jesse Waters on Terrace? That's just hard for me to believe. So I've got it down to Harry Enton or cbs. Barry Weiss. I'm gonna go with Harry Enton because I just, just don't think you would bring this up otherwise. I don't know. Okay, Harry. Anton, is. Is it Harry?

Mary Radcliffe (33:06)

You got it, you got it? Yes. Yes. He, for whatever reason, at a Saudi investment conference, interrupted his own speech to show a clip of Harry Enton, highlighting that in a recent survey, Trump's approval rating with self identified Maga voters was 100%. So surprise, GDBD needy came in.

Galen Darouc (33:34)

Is that good data, bad data or not data?

Mary Radcliffe (33:36)

Is the fact that Trump's approval rating with self identified MAGA voters 100%, is that good data, bad data, or not data?

Galen Darouc (33:48)

I think it is good data because it shows us that voters know what they're being asked when they get asked if they are MAGA voters. So in essence, you're saying, are you a person who supports Trump? And then once they say yes, you say, okay, and do you support Trump? And they say yes again. That's what that poll is doing.

Nathaniel Rakic (34:09)

It's just good validation, folks.

Galen Darouc (34:11)

At the, at the very least, we now know that Republican voters fully understand what they're being asked when they are asked if they're MAGA voters. So we don't have to guess at it anymore. Which became a sort of quandary early on in the Iran war, because people were like, well, is there a civil war within maga? There is something of a civil war within the Republican Party over the war in Iran. I mean, to some extent, and it's mostly amongst elites and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But amongst self identified maga, no, because people take MAGA to mean most supportive of President Trump.

Mary Radcliffe (34:47)

Yeah, I think that's right. I think that this serves to clarify that, like when you ask if you're maga, it's not asking you an ideological position, it's asking about Trump's support. But Trump really liked it.

Galen Darouc (35:00)

Yeah, right. Like, is that a good data point for better understanding America? Probably not. Or like, is it good evidence of how popular Trump is? No, but it is. I don't mind that the question was asked. It's maybe like the use of polling rather than the data itself. That is a little silly.

Mary Radcliffe (35:21)

Yes, yes. And speaking of Trump's overall approval rating while you were gone, we've seen some movement, actually.

Galen Darouc (35:29)

Okay, well, let me. I'm gonna take a wild guess. It didn't go up.

Mary Radcliffe (35:33)

No, it did not. Trump is at record lows in pick your approval average, all of them.

Galen Darouc (35:40)

Okay.

Mary Radcliffe (35:40)

He has fallen for the first time in the second term below 40% on the silver Bulletins polling average, he's at a record low in our average at 50 plus 1. Ours tends to be a little lower than some of the other ones. It's just different methodological choices. But the movement has been pretty universal. Of all of the pollsters that have published polls in March, their most recent survey is their lowest rating for the second term in over half of those pollsters. This morning a survey came out that had his approval rating sitting at 33%, which is very, very low. So the crashes seems to be being driven in large part by a complete collapse in support with young voters. For example, in that survey this morning that had that low 33, Trump's approval rating among voters under the age of 30, like his approval number was 19%. So that's what's been going on for the President. You can go look at all the polling averages and find all the polls, but it, it's, it's not looking great for Donald Trump these last couple of weeks.

Galen Darouc (36:48)

I know I've been staying away and now I get to go indulge.

Nathaniel Rakic (36:51)

Yeah. And I mean, obviously, you know, we like to be cautious about assigning causality to shifts like this. Right, but. All right, I always. Right, but no, but listen, wait for what I'm gonna say. But like I'm gonna be, I'm gonna go out on a limb and I'm gonna say that this is because of Iran. Both the, I think, you know, the war itself being unpopular, as we discussed, but also obviously the kind of domestic economic impacts that it's having, I. E. On gas prices. So if you look at the, again, the Silver Bulletin average, the, the, you know, they disaggregate, like Trump's approval rating on specific issues. And you know, while he has fallen on things like immigration and trade, the one that by far has seen the biggest decrease in the last few weeks is inflation, where he is now 36 points underwater on average. There was also a poll from Ipsos and Reuter last week that found that the two top issues in the country were the economy, which of course has been that way for a long time, but also foreign conflicts and war, which shot up from 1% of Americans who said that was the most important issue to 14% of Americans said it was the most important issue. Yeah, yeah.

Mary Radcliffe (37:57)

I mean, the gas prices have to be cutting into that, those inflation numbers.

Nathaniel Rakic (38:01)

Right.

Mary Radcliffe (38:02)

Pretty significantly.

Nathaniel Rakic (38:03)

And in that same poll, just 34% of Americans say the economy is very or somewhat strong, and A larger share, 63%, describes it as very or somewhat week. So I think it is a real double whammy and really kind of an unforced error on Trump's part that has very clearly, I think, now given him a. A political hit.

Galen Darouc (38:22)

All right, where are we going to next? Something light. Yes.

Nathaniel Rakic (38:28)

Next up, we have. On March 26, the New York Times reported that Trump was considering renovations to the White House Treaty Room, which has long been used for diplomatic meetings and hosting foreign dignitaries. What would he like to turn the Treaty Room into? A, a bedroom with an ensuite bath, B, a podcasting studio, C, a micro kitchen where employees can get snacks and coffee, or D, a showroom to display awards given to the president.

Galen Darouc (38:59)

So it's either awards or a podcast studio. Given that on the last one, the shoe fits, and on the second one, the podcast studio, it feels like the kind of thing you would bring up because we are on a podcast right now. But I don't think that Trump cares about podcasts. So I'm going to go with award. To display awards to the President. Oh, no.

Nathaniel Rakic (39:23)

This time you're right.

Galen Darouc (39:24)

Is it going to be a podcast studio?

Nathaniel Rakic (39:25)

No, it was actually the bedroom with the ensuite path. It's going to be a bedroom, another bedroom, because the White House doesn't have enough of those.

Galen Darouc (39:32)

Did he explain why he wanted it to be a bedroom?

Nathaniel Rakic (39:36)

I don't know, Mary.

Mary Radcliffe (39:37)

No, no, no. I mean, this is. We threw this in here in part because it is astonishing how much even we're at war and all this stuff is going on. And Trump continues to interrupt himself in press conferences to talk about building a triumphant arch and ballroom and all that stuff.

Nathaniel Rakic (39:57)

It's, you know, he's a developer at heart.

Mary Radcliffe (40:00)

So this is been sort of like lightly in the news the weeks that you've been away. So Donald Trump continues focusing on the issues Americans care most about.

Nathaniel Rakic (40:10)

Yeah, I'm not sure that renovations at the White House cracked that Ipsos poll. Anyway. Okay, should we wrap with elections? Yeah, you have. You have six correct answers and three incorrect answers, which is pretty darn good. This is our last question, number 10. So let's see if, if you can get this one. And yes, we are going to wrap on the topic, of course, of all the elections that happened as when you were gone, in case you thought that we would forget about elections.

Galen Darouc (40:34)

Am I going to have to guess the results of all the elections that happened while I was gone?

Nathaniel Rakic (40:37)

Yes, within a tenth of a percentage point.

Galen Darouc (40:39)

Okay. All right, I'm ready.

Nathaniel Rakic (40:42)

Okay. Number 10. Which of the following candidates won an election while you were Gone. A, Illinois Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthy. B, former Illinois Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. Who resigned in 2012amid a campaign finance scandal. C, online activist Kat Abu Ghazala or D, Emily Gregory, a Democrat running to represent Mar? A Lago in the Florida State House.

Galen Darouc (41:10)

I know that it wasn't Kat, because this happened just as I was arriving in Japan, and I got alerts from the New York Times as that Illinois primary was happening. So I know that it was somebody. It was the guy. I don't know his name. It was a guy in that.

Nathaniel Rakic (41:27)

Daniel Bis, the former mayor. Current mayor of Evanston. Yeah. Although it was close. It was a, it was a pretty close election, which was notable.

Galen Darouc (41:35)

I think I'm leaning towards D, because that feels like something that you would want to spotlight. I also don't know anything about Jesse Jackson Jr. Like, I don't. I haven't even heard his name. Is he even running for anything?

Mary Radcliffe (41:55)

I, I, he was, yes.

Galen Darouc (41:57)

Okay. Don't know anything about him. I don't even know who the congressman, who the first congressman was.

Nathaniel Rakic (42:02)

Okay. Okay. All right. We're gonna take these one at a time.

Mary Radcliffe (42:05)

Conversation about the Illinois Senate primary.

Galen Darouc (42:09)

No, I guess not.

Nathaniel Rakic (42:10)

Wow.

Galen Darouc (42:11)

Okay.

Nathaniel Rakic (42:11)

Really took a nice bath for your brain.

Mary Radcliffe (42:14)

You could cut any of this.

Galen Darouc (42:16)

To be clear, it is now. What. What time is it? It's now past 2:30 in the morning for me.

Nathaniel Rakic (42:21)

That's fair. That's fair. Okay. I'm guessing D. That is correct. Yes.

Galen Darouc (42:26)

Yes.

Nathaniel Rakic (42:26)

Seven. Seven correct answers out of ten. That's very good. All right. Yeah. So basically, we wanted to take this as an excuse to talk about all the elections that happened while you were gone. So I guess let's actually start by knocking off the Illinois thing. So rajnakrishnamoorthy was, I think you would probably have to say people thought he was the frontrunner in the Democratic primary for U.S. senate in Illinois. Right. Which is an open seat because of Dick Durbin's retirement. He had a huge spending advantage. About two thirds of the campaign ads that were on air in that race were from him. But he ended up losing to Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who had backing from a lot of the state kind of political establishment and is also kind of a little bit more lefty and, you know, kind of more, I think, in keeping with the Democratic zeitgeist right now, of wanting to stick it to Trump. So that's notable.

Galen Darouc (43:16)

I left, which was just different. People from Illinois saying Trump.

Nathaniel Rakic (43:21)

Yeah, right. Yes. So I think obviously that's notable because she is almost certainly going to be the next senator from Illinois, given Illinois's blue hue. So that was a big race that happened while you were gone.

Mary Radcliffe (43:30)

Yeah. One thing I thought was interesting about that race is it's true that Krishnamoorthy had a significant spending advantage. It's also true that Stratton didn't go on air until relatively late. So Krishnamurthy started spending really early and developed an early lead. And you can sort of see in the polling average that his number stays fairly flat and hers just creeps up on it until right before the primary they were almost tied. So she did end up taking that race.

Nathaniel Rakic (43:56)

And then. Yeah. So Jesse Jackson Jr. Is obviously Jesse Jackson, the more famous Jesse Jackson's son. He was trying to come back from scandal in an open congressional seat based in Chicago. He ended up losing. So, you know, I just thought, you know, that was a fun little addition. But yeah, as you point out, Emily Gregory, a Democrat who ran for Florida state House in a West Palm beach based district that included Mar? A Lago, scored an upset win in a special election. While you were out there was also a Democrat in the Tampa area who also won a Republican leaning district for state Senate. So that obviously was kind of yet another example of Democrats doing really well in special elections. And I think in Florida in particular spooked a fair number of Republicans. Mary. Right.

Galen Darouc (44:40)

Mm.

Mary Radcliffe (44:41)

Yeah. So one of the things that has been really freaking the Republicans out on these, in both of these seats that flipped both State Senate District 14 and House District 87, that includes Mar? A Lago, both of them had pretty significant Republican advantage in registration of the voters that turned out. So In Senate District 14, R +9, and in House District 87, they were R +10. And Democrats won both of those electorates. So that seems to be pretty notable that even though Florida has a pretty significant Republican advantage in registration right now, that maybe that might not translate to necessarily an advantage in these midterms.

Galen Darouc (45:24)

So are they still planning on redrawing the congressional map in Florida?

Nathaniel Rakic (45:29)

Great question. Indeed.

Galen Darouc (45:31)

You know, that's what they pay me the big bucks to do.

Nathaniel Rakic (45:33)

Yeah. Yes. You know, redistricting is still very much on the agenda for Florida Republicans in April. So that is coming up. But this race, obviously, or these two races really kind of have some Republicans talking publicly about how maybe they want to tap the brakes a little bit on this, which obviously is notable. So I believe that a couple of Florida Republican congressmen have said, you know, we really shouldn't try. You know, I think that, you know, people think that if they really go Aggressively, they could squeeze, like, four or five more seats out of Florida. But Republican congressmen are like, eh, you know what? Like, maybe let's just try like, one or two. And I believe that one even said, like, we shouldn't even do it at all. And obviously, I think the reason for that is clear, which is that you're gonna have to spread yourself pretty thin if you're Florida Republicans in redistricting, if you want to get those four or five seats. And if Democrats are winning in special elections, granted, so they're special. But, you know, if this is a blue wave year and there are a bunch of congressional seats that Trump only won by, say, six points or something like that, that could make those seats vulnerable. And so if these special elections do nothing else but to spook Republicans into being less, like, aggressive in redistricting. Because to be clear, Republicans still have strong majorities in both the Florida State House and State Senate. So it's not like that's really going to change as a result of the LLC's elections, but the impact on congressional redistricting I think could be significant.

Galen Darouc (46:56)

Is that all? Is that everything that happened while I was gone?

Mary Radcliffe (46:59)

Well, I was. I was gonna flag one more upcoming election, not a result that happened. But we know that Texas Senate runoff is coming up. So you may have been here when Trump said he was planning to endorse in that race.

Galen Darouc (47:10)

Yes, yes. Has he. Has he not endorsed?

Mary Radcliffe (47:14)

While you were gone, we saw the deadline for a candidate to withdraw from the race come and go with no Trump endorsement, which means we are getting a runoff.

Galen Darouc (47:25)

Okay.

Mary Radcliffe (47:26)

And he has still not endorsed in that race.

Nathaniel Rakic (47:29)

I don't think he will.

Mary Radcliffe (47:30)

I don't think he will.

Nathaniel Rakic (47:31)

I think there was this brief moment where, like, you know, people thought, like, oh, he can. Cornyn did better than expected in the primary. And, like, Trump can ice this by just, you know, jumping on the corn and train. But since then, I think that momentum has. Has stalled. And I think we're back to the same situation where, like, Trump doesn't really want Paxton because he would put the seat in play, but at the same time, he doesn't want to endorse Cornyn because there's a very real risk that he would lose and that wouldn't look good for Trump.

Galen Darouc (47:55)

So is it there any sense without the endorsement, how that runoff is looking? And are they both still campaigning in earnest?

Mary Radcliffe (48:04)

They are both still campaigning in earnest. We don't have any recent neutral polling, so I don't want to highlight too much the partisan polls that are Polls from one candidate's camp or the other, but it is looking closer than we thought it would be looking before the initial primary. I think, you know, Cornyn performed better than he was expected to in that initial primary. And so I think pollsters have adjusted to what the electric seems like it will look like based on what they saw in March.

Galen Darouc (48:32)

All right. Anything else did I miss?

Mary Radcliffe (48:36)

Did we miss anything? Did. Is there stuff you need to know?

Galen Darouc (48:40)

I'm racking my brain to think if there's. If there were any. Did any loose ends before I. Did Marco Rubio get any new jobs?

Mary Radcliffe (48:48)

I don't think so.

Galen Darouc (48:49)

Is he also now the chair of the Federal Reserve Bank?

Mary Radcliffe (48:54)

No, not yet. Not yet.

Nathaniel Rakic (48:55)

That one has not happened yet.

Galen Darouc (48:57)

Did we. I don't think we. Did we get any interesting jobs reports? I feel like a lot of that came out right before I left. I'm thinking jobs reports. I'm thinking interest rates. I'm thinking. I also. I took the liberty to not check my 401k while I was gone.

Nathaniel Rakic (49:14)

Mm. Smart.

Galen Darouc (49:15)

And I don't.

Nathaniel Rakic (49:15)

Yeah, the stock market had really terrible days on both Thursday and Friday, which obviously was related to the. The. The oil prices surging and developments in Iran. So, yeah, you might want to wait on that.

Mary Radcliffe (49:25)

And I believe we did get a forecast, but not an actual report of increased inflation this quarter. But that's not official yet. That's just the economic forecast.

Galen Darouc (49:36)

What are we looking ahead to? What's our. When's our next. What's our next primary?

Mary Radcliffe (49:41)

There's no primaries until maybe no more until May.

Galen Darouc (49:46)

There are.

Nathaniel Rakic (49:47)

Next week is the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, which is always a favorite of this podcast because Kaylin and his Wisconsin ties. Although this race is a lot sleepier than it has been in past years because control of the court isn't at stake.

Galen Darouc (49:58)

Well, you mean Elon Musk isn't investing. What was it, like, $20 million?

Nathaniel Rakic (50:03)

He's nowhere to be found this time around.

Mary Radcliffe (50:04)

He did offer to pay the TSA agents. Now,

Nathaniel Rakic (50:12)

the Virginia redistricting referendum is coming up in a few weeks on April 21, I believe, so That'll be a fun one.

Galen Darouc (50:17)

Ooh, that's a good one. Yeah, we'll have to talk about that. Okay, well, it's getting to be 3 o' clock in the morning for me.

Nathaniel Rakic (50:26)

You should go to bed.

Galen Darouc (50:27)

Thank you. Thank you so much for doing all of this. I really appreciate it. I do feel very much up to date. I do.

Nathaniel Rakic (50:34)

I can't believe you got 7 out of 10 without barely paying attention. That's freakish.

Galen Darouc (50:39)

I think it's more because I know you guys than I know what happened in American politics. You know, just the psychology of your choice. I do still want to figure out what happened to Figures 1 and 2.

Mary Radcliffe (50:51)

Well, like I said at the beginning, we'll send you our doc. You can click through all the clips and silly things.

Galen Darouc (50:58)

And like I said, we have unless maybe if we invade Iran, I'll change course. But we have, we have a Japan podcast coming out this Thursday, actually. Pretty fascinating country for anyone you know, fascinating political dynamics for anyone who's tired of hearing about American politics all the time. Do you guys want to do the sign off or am I going to do the sign off?

Mary Radcliffe (51:19)

Oh, you should do it.

Galen Darouc (51:21)

Okay. Well, Mary, Nathaniel, thank you so much for joining me today.

Mary Radcliffe (51:25)

Thank you for having us.

Galen Darouc (51:27)

My name is Galen Druke. Remember to become a subscriber subscriber to this podcast@gdpolitics.com and wherever you get your podcast. Paid subscribers get about twice the number of episodes and also join in our paid subscriber chat and pass along questions for us to discuss on the show. Most importantly, you ensure that we can keep making a podcast that prioritizes curiosity, rigor and a sense of humor. Also, be a friend of the podcast and give us a five star rating wherever you listen, maybe even tell a friend about us. Thanks for listening and real soon it.