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- [00:00]
Galen Drouke
Should we do this? What are we.
- [00:02]
Lenny Brauner
Let's do it.
- [00:02]
Galen Drouke
Yeah. What are we waiting for? Let's talk about Israel. Let's talk about air conditioning and Israel, two of the hottest topics in America today.
- [00:09]
Lenny Brauner
I mean, you have to save yourself that joke for when you're actually recording.
- [00:12]
Galen Drouke
Oh, we are recording. Hello, and welcome to the GD Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Drouke. Today we're opening up the mailbag and answering some of your questions. And I want to start with a reminder of how you can get in touch to submit your questions. First, there's the paid subscriber chat that you get access to when you subscribe to the pod@gdpolitics.com I'll prioritize the questions in there. You can also get in touch on X or bluesky, and you can reach out at galendpolitics. So we got some great questions from listeners, and we're going to make it through as many as possible. There were questions about public opinion on the war in Gaza, which actually coincided with some new polling out this week. There were questions about the youth vote and President Trump's conflict with American universities. Someone wanted to know if voters would be willing to elect a gay president. And also what happened to 5e fox, the 538 mascot. Those were two. Two separate questions. Although I think Feige Fox would make a great candidate in case that question pertains to him. There's also one question about why Trump often deflects questions by punting for specifically two weeks. Is that just how long it takes for people to forget about a story? We did also get questions about the midterms and the elections this fall, but we're doing an episode on that soon, so I am going to save those. In any case, here with me to help answer your questions is my dear friend and political data extraordinaire, Lenny Brauner. He's a senior data scientist at the Washington Post. Welcome, Lenny.
- [01:57]
Lenny Brauner
Thanks for having me.
- [01:58]
Galen Drouke
Okay, so we got a lot of listener questions to get to, but I have a very special GDBD needy example to throw at you before we do that. And of course, that's good data, bad data or not data, as regular listeners of this podcast may know that you're something of a European correspondent on GD Politics. You are Aust, living in New York. You spend a decent amount of time back home in Vienna. And offline, we often get in debates or at least conversations about life in America versus Europe. So we're going to bring that chat online today. And that is thanks to George Mason economist Tyler Cowan, who recently wrote a piece in the Free Press titled I Once Thought Europeans Lived as well as Americans. Not anymore. He talks about various things like the quality of bread and technological innovation, but one piece of data that got folks folks attention was about air conditioning. He begins the piece writing, quote, I was shocked recently to learn that more Europeans die of heat death, largely due to lack of air conditioning, than Americans die from gunshot wounds. End quote. He cites an AI analysis that links to data from the UN and the center for Gun Violence Solutions at Johns Hopkins. According to that data, 175,000 Europeans die from heat related deaths each year, 1 while 40 to 50,000Americans die from gunshots, the majority of which are suicides. So we got some more data to pull in here as we go, but starting there, Lenny, is that good data, bad data or not data?
- [03:35]
Lenny Brauner
That's a great question. I mean, the first thing I'll do is sort of push back on the data a little bit, which is that I saw the report from the UN that 175,000 Europeans died in 2023 for heat related deaths. And I wasn't really able to figure out where they got this data from, but instead I found a nature study from this, from last year, 2024, where their estimate was from. This Nature study was 47,000 heat deaths in Europe in 2023, which is, you know, significantly less than 175,000. That being said, it is pretty on par with the number of gun deaths in the United States. So, you know, you said 40, between 40 and 50,000, so this would be 47,000. So actually very similar. So I guess there is this discrepancy a little bit between the data that I was linked in the piece and is linked by the UN and this other study that I found. But your initial question, I mean, like, whether this is good use of data or bad use of data, like, I guess it sort of depends on what you're using this data for. Like, taken at face value, it's interesting, right? It's interesting data. It suggests that Europe has more to do when it comes to combating or like, you know, alleviating the extremes of climate change. It also suggests that the US has more to do about combating gun violence, though, obviously, as you said, most of these gun related deaths are suicides. And Europe I'm sure, also has a high, like, relatively high rate of suicides, though people might be committing suicides differently than, you know, using guns, since guns are sort of less available in Europe. But I think as a, as Evidence to claim that Europe is a worse place to live in than the U.S. i think it's a little dubious, I'd say. And I say this as a European who has chosen to live in the United States.
- [05:04]
Galen Drouke
Right, okay, yeah, no, we'll get into that. But Tyler Cowen doesn't cite this data in the piece. But I thought it was important to bring in, which is, according to the Journal of the American Medical association, the number of Americans who died from heat in 2023 is at least 2,325. And more than 21,518 people have died from heat since 1999. So whether we go with the UN estimate or the nature estimate, it is a tiny portion of Americans who are dying from heat related deaths compared with Europe. Is that just the magic of air conditioning? I mean, it's, it's just hard to believe that there's that big of a difference between the United States and, and Europe. Like 2000 people dying from heat versus I think we have to dig deeper into these estimates. But like between 50,000 and 175,000 dying from heat.
- [05:59]
Lenny Brauner
I agree that those numbers are incredibly, incredibly different. And that is very surprising. You know, when I saw that the estimate for the number of heat deaths in the United States in a year is 2000, I find that shockingly low. Even given the fact that there's a lot more air condition in the United States, I would be very surprised by that number. And my hunch, without having looked at this data too deeply, would be that this is just different methodology in how heat deaths are counted. I mean, this is a discrepancy we see all the time when deaths are sort of being categorized. We saw this during COVID It's like, what does it mean for people to die with something or from something by heat deaths? I'm sure there are differences by country on methodology, even possibly within Europe. Right. So that makes these estimates probably kind of difficult to combine. But I would not be surprised if that is explains part of the discrepancy.
- [06:45]
Galen Drouke
Okay, well, Cowan goes on to talk about what it is like to try to air condition your home or workplace in Europe. He says, quote, european governments do a great deal to discourage air conditioning, whether central AC or window units. You might need a hard to get permit to install an AC unit, and in Geneva, you have to show a medical need for it. Or in many regions of Europe, the air conditioner might violate heritage preservation laws or, or be illegal altogether. In Portofino, Italy, neighbors have been known to turn each other in for having illegal air conditioning units. The fines can range up to €43,000, though most cases are settled out of court by a removal of the unit. In Britain, even if you can get through the regulations, the cost of energy can be double that in America. So good luck with your bills. By refusing to build out its nuclear and wind power and moving away from coal, Britain has ended up short of affordable energy, which has penalized its manufacturing and tech sectors as well. I guess we don't need to necessarily get into the latter part, but okay. I have lived in both the United States and Europe. I have never in my life had central AC in New York City. And also my experience of air conditioning in Europe is that it's not that hard to find. I mean, what do you make of this characterization of the unattainable European air conditioning?
- [08:03]
Lenny Brauner
I was very surprised by that also. I mean, I will say that I have only lived in Austria. I mean, that's where I was born and grew up. So I don't know how this compares to the countries that, that are cited. But in my recollection, and I mean, I, I was just there quite recently, like there is air condition. You find it. I would be surprised if it's that difficult to get. At least in Austria, though, again, that doesn't really mean very much about what that might mean for other European countries.
- [08:26]
Galen Drouke
All told, Cowan concludes circa 2025. My subjective judgment is that American living standards are 20 to 30% higher than those in Western Europe, and the difference is likely to grow. Okay, so that's obviously not data, but what do you make of that subjective judgment?
- [08:45]
Lenny Brauner
I am a lot less convinced. He cites a lot of evidence that suggests that there are differences in the economic conditions. Obviously, the United States has more robust economic growth than Europe has had for a significant amount of time. And as he cites, the discrepancy is probably only going to grow in the future. There's obviously issues around energy sufficiency that the US is sort of more advanced in than Europe is. But I still think that the difference in quality of life is not even remotely as stark. I mean, it'll be interesting to see to what extent the quality of life in Europe remains as high as it is without economic growth. Historically speaking, quality of life is coupled pretty closely to economic growth. Europe has not had robust economic growth for nearly 20 years now, but the quality of life remains very, very high, even if we just look at things like life expectancy. Right, which in Europe has continued growing over the last 20 years. And in the United States has actually fallen, though it looks like it is now probably recovering in the United States a little bit. And I would say that things like life expectancy are maybe a better measure of quality of life than say, raw GDP numbers, or maybe they are also an indicator of quality of life than raw GDP numbers. But I think as a European who thinks about Europe a lot, who spends a lot of time in Europe, I am concerned about this relationship between quality of life and economic growth and what that might mean in the future unless Europe can get into a better place when it comes to their economy.
- [10:06]
Galen Drouke
Well, we have a decent amount of listeners who are joining us from Europe, so I would be curious for folks takes on this. As I mentioned, you can get in touch in the subscriber chat or@galendpolitics.com or on social media. But I want to make sure that we have plenty of time to get to listener questions. So we are going to move on from that. Although, Lenny, you never confirmed if it was good data, bad data, or not data.
- [10:31]
Lenny Brauner
I think it depends on what you're using the data for.
- [10:33]
Galen Drouke
That's a, that's a.
- [10:33]
Lenny Brauner
It is good data.
- [10:34]
Galen Drouke
I think it's okay.
- [10:35]
Lenny Brauner
It is good data. It is bad data. If you're using it as evidence for like saying that the quality of life in Europe is, is worse. And then, you know, I mean, the, the article, like you said, went on to cite that his subjective feelings are that the quality of life in Europe is 20 to 30% lower. Like, that's just not data.
- [10:50]
Galen Drouke
Like you said, that's not data. Okay. All right, let's get to our first question, which comes from Tasha. And Tashay wants to know specifically about polling on Israel, particularly amongst the youth. They note that the gap seems really wide on the question of Israel between older Americans and younger Americans. They go on to ask how come young men are more supportive of Zoran than young women in nyc? What do the youth really think? Why are POD Bros becoming left wing lately? Andrew Schultz praising Bernie Sanders and Zoran Mandani, end quote. Okay, so there's a lot in there. And we also got some other questions about the youth. So we're going to save that broader question for a second and focus on polling on views of Israel and the war in Gaza. And fortunately for our quest to answer this question, we got brand new polling this week from Gallup. The headline was, quote, 32% in the U.S. back Israel's military action in Gaza, a new low, end quote. And just to cite more detailed numbers there, it was 60% of Americans disapprove. So it was overall 28 points underwater in terms of views of Israel's military action in Gaza. Lenny, what's underneath that top line number? It seems like Tasha was particularly curious about gender, age and maybe even political affiliation.
- [12:13]
Lenny Brauner
Yeah, so I mean, we do see, we, this poll, the Gallup poll that you mentioned, we do get cross tabs from there and, you know, they break down along the lines that I think, you know, most political listeners wouldn't be super surprised to hear. You know, Israel's actions are even less popular amongst young voters. Amongst 18 to 34 year olds, only 9% of the people who are appalled approved of military Israel's military action in Gaza compared to 49% amongst those that are 55 and older. Men are more likely to approve than women, 41% to 24%. People of color are more likely to disapprove than non Hispanic white adults. Non Hispanic white adults approve at 40% versus people of color at 18%. So, you know, a lot of these differences that, you know, we would expect to see given the breakdown of the.
- [12:54]
Galen Drouke
American coalitions, there's similarly a really big divide when it comes to party identification as well. So it's like 70% of Republicans approve of Israel's military action in Gaza versus just 8% of Democrats and 25% of independents. And those numbers have dropped significantly. So about two years ago it was somewhere around 50% of independence and around 40% of Democrats. But other than this gap over party ID, the most glaring gap is age. And I think some of that you can chalk up to the fact that younger Americans are also just more liberal in general. You also mentioned the divide in terms of white Americans versus Americans of color. And younger Americans are more diverse. So some of this may be demographic, but it seems quite stark. I mean, is there anything else we can chalk that divide up to?
- [13:49]
Lenny Brauner
I mean, I think there's a. There's multiple things that come together here, right? On the one side, like you said, young people are more likely to be Democrats. Democrats have had a more fraught relationship with especially the current government of Israel, going back to 2013, when the Obama government and the Netanyahu government at the time sort of ran into political issues. People felt that Bibi Netanyahu was sort of like got himself invited by, you know, the Republican Congress and sort of was playing games with what Obama was trying to do here. And that sort of caused a lot of the conflict between those two governments. And I think a lot of Democrats felt that, you know, Netanyahu didn't have the best intentions and was not like a reasonable actor in a lot of that. And I think that, you know, started decreasing or started meaning that Democrats were sort of less likely to support Israel generally. But then there's obviously the fact that, you know, a lot of younger people are more likely to get their news from social media, for example, where we're all seeing these, like, horrific pictures that are coming out of Gaza. I think that is probably also contributing quite significantly. But there's probably a lot of things going on here in general. I mean, if you're older, you have maybe a longer view of the conflict, the sort of relationship between, or at least how the relationship between who the aggressor is and who the group is that is being attacked. That relationship has changed over the last 50, 60, 70, 80 years. If you've been looking at this conflict over the last maybe 10, 15, 20 years, you might have a different view about what is causing this conflict than if you have been around and, you know, observing this conflict for, say, 50 or 60 years.
- [15:15]
Galen Drouke
Yeah. And to your point about views of Netanyahu in this poll, fully 52% of Americans now view Benjamin Netanyahu unfavorably. That's his highest unfavorable rating since 1997. His favorable rating stands at just 29%, while about 20% of Americans have no opinion of him. Is there any other data that we can pull on here to sort of talk about maybe how things have changed? I think we're. One of the more common questions that gets asked in polls is like, are you more sympathetic to Israelis or Palestinians or both or neither, which is a very sort of different framing of the conflict than just, do you support Israel's actions in Gaza right now? Like, do we have any other sense of how public opinion is evolving based on that?
- [16:03]
Lenny Brauner
Yeah, absolutely. So we just got a new YouGov poll out which showed that, you know, Americans are still more likely to sympathize more with the Israelis. So 31% in the YouGov poll compared to 23% who sympathize more with the Palestinians and 20% who sympathize with both groups equally. But that is down for the number of people who sympathize with Israel from a record of, or I guess the more recent record of 48% in October of 2023, down to 31%, like I said. And the number of people who sympathize more with Palestinians is up from 10 or 13% in October of 2023 to 23% versus the about equal has remained relatively constant, maybe is now slightly on the lower end with 20%, but has been sort of bouncing around between 20 and 30% since. Since then. So there is a. There is, you know, quite a bit of evidence that there is a change happening between, you know, public perception of Israel and, you know, what it means for the American relationship with Israel. I mean, another piece of data that I found incredibly interesting was a Data for Progress poll that was now written about by Semaphore, which I think came out yesterday or two days ago. And this was in particular to New York City, and when it was polling the primary electorate in New York City, which is obviously, you know, only one set of, you know, Democratic primary electorate in the country or Democrats in the country. But to some degree, it's a very important group. Right. It's a group that is more likely to sort of be interviewed, be media, be able to push a narrative or whatever. And in that poll.
- [17:27]
Galen Drouke
Well, actually, we're not Democratic primary voters.
- [17:30]
Lenny Brauner
I think neither of us voted in the Democratic primary in New York City. And in that poll, it said that 78% of the people in that who are polled believe that Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza. For 80% of the people who are polled, it says that Mandani supporting Palestinian rights and his willingness to criticize Israel was important to them. And I think, if I remember correctly, 63% of the Democratic primary electorate voters wanted to see Netanyahu arrested if he came to New York City for UN General Assembly.
- [17:59]
Galen Drouke
Yeah. So I think we should note that Data for Progress is aligned with the progressive left. And of course, they're talking to Democratic primary voters in New York City. But nonetheless, it does feel like there has been something of a political sea change. I mean, you mentioned the word genocide. Folks might have noticed this week that Marjorie Taylor Greene called it a genocide. So there's people on the right who are using that kind of language. There's also, I mean, this is maybe more significant is Angus King, who's oftentimes described as a moderate independent from Maine, put out a statement on the conflict, and I'll read a little bit from it just to give folks a sense of where. And it's hard to say whether politicians are reacting to the sea change they're seeing in public opinion or if they're just reacting to the news cycle, which is, of course, also shaping public opinion. So those, those are very tied up. But Angus King writes, quote, I cannot defend the indefensible Israel's actions in the conduct of the war in Gaza. Especially its fail to address the unimaginable humanitarian crisis now unfolding, is an affront to human decency. What appears to be a deliberately induced famine among a civilian population, including tens of thousands of starving children, can never be an acceptable military strategy. He goes on to condemn Hamas. But then he concludes, for these reasons, I am through supporting the actions of the current Israeli government and will advocate and vote for an end to any United States support whatsoever until there is a demonstrable change in the direction of Israeli policy. My litmus test will be simple. No aid of any kind as long as there are starving children in Gaza due to the action or inaction of the Israeli government. So that's a sort of independent, moderate, quote, unquote. And to add to that, I think, you know, the Pod Save America, Bros, if that's a test of the establishment Democratic Party, they recorded a podcast recently where they said, there's no going back to the status quo ante after this conflict is even over. We're not doing sort of no strings attached military aid to Israel. It seems like this is kind of a. A real shifting point where it used to be that Democrats, I think, were afraid of Israel being used as a wedge issue against them to divide them. It seems like we're getting to a place where Democrats are more united on this issue and united in their skepticism of at least the Israeli government and Netanyahu.
- [20:18]
Lenny Brauner
I think that's true. I mean, it looks very much so, as if that were definitely true amongst the electorate. You know, usually things like that take a bit of time to sort of move its way up to the actual elected officials. But oftentimes these things then actually happen very quickly. Right. Like as soon as one or a few people start elected officials start moving in that direction. You know, it can happen that suddenly a lot of elected officials move. And in that case, I think actually, you know, to your point, I think the Angus King statement could be seen, you know, maybe in retrospect. We'll see. We'll see how things develop. Might be seen as relatively quite significant as one of those moments that really sort of catalyzed quicker and further movement in that direction.
- [20:54]
Galen Drouke
Okay, let's move on to the latter part of Tasha's question, which actually gets us to the next question, which comes from Polenjoyer. Pollenjoyer says, what do you make of the data showing young men are becoming more right wing? Is there any other point in history where young people became more conservative than previous generations? And I'll just say I wanted to answer the question straightforwardly So I went back and looked in Roper data. You know, is there a time in history when younger generations were more conservative than older generations? And the answer is definitely yes. So all right, and that's the end of today's preview. Head over to GDPolitics.com to become a paid subscriber and hear the full episode. We got to a lot more listener questions in the rest of the episode, like whether young people have a liberal bias or just a bias against the status quo. We talked about Americans views on Trump's battle with universities and why context matters in trying to determine if the US Would be willing to elect a gay president. Like I said, head over to GDPolitics.com to become a paid subscriber. Paid subscribers get about twice the number of episodes they can join in the paid subscriber chat. And most importantly, you keep this podcast going when you become a subscriber. You can connect your account to wherever you listen to podcasts. So Apple podcasts, Spotify, wherever. So you'll never, never miss an episode. There's a link in the show notes explaining exactly how to do that. Again, head over to GDPolitics.com see you there.