GD POLITICS Podcast: "How Will The Shutdown End?"

Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Gabe Fleischer, author of "Wake Up To Politics"
Date: October 13, 2025
Theme: Examining the present government shutdown—its effects, political dynamics, likely endgame—and exploring current political narratives, public attitudes toward political violence and free speech, the California gubernatorial race, and Trump’s legal strategies with the National Guard.

Overview

This episode unpacks why the current government shutdown feels less urgent than previous ones, who’s affected, and how politics and public perception shape potential resolutions. Host Galen Druke and political journalist Gabe Fleischer analyze blame, pressure points, and what to expect next. The conversation also covers Democratic strategy for midterms, California politics, polling on violence and speech, and Trump’s legal maneuvers on domestic military deployments.

Main Topics & Insights

1. The Shutdown: Who Feels It & Why Is There Less Urgency?

(00:50 – 06:30)

• Immediate Impact:

  • Greatest effect is on federal workers, millions of whom are either working without pay or furloughed. First missed paychecks for civilians arrive Friday; military would’ve missed Oct 15, but Trump is paying them.
    • Gabe: “Either you're working without pay or you're at home without pay. Either way, not getting a paycheck.” (03:35)
  • Many essential services continue, so public impact feels muted; affects like closed parks and delayed flights are sporadic.
    • Galen: “This doesn't feel like a pressure cooker situation like past shutdowns have felt.” (01:30)
  • Airport disruptions loom: TSA/air traffic controller sickouts helped end previous shutdowns—may happen earlier this time.

• Shutdown Law:

  • “Wild west”—Presidents largely decide what stays open, few legal constraints.
  • Essential employees must work without pay; high absenteeism threatens core services.

2. Pressure Points for Ending the Shutdown

(06:32 – 13:36)

• Key Deadlines:

  • October 15: Military paychecks (removes a pressure point since Trump is paying troops).
  • November 1: Open enrollment for ACA exchanges; Democrats see this as a healthcare negotiation deadline.
    • Gabe: “If there's no action by October 15th, ... the whole military will be going unpaid.” (09:05)
    • Galen: “Democrats want to have this fight over healthcare, but Republicans... want to say, 'Democrats are being intransigent.'” (07:00)

• Who’s Blamed?

  • Public largely blames Republicans/Trump by ~10-point margin—same as before the shutdown—helping Democrats feel secure in negotiations.

• Likelihood of Compromise:

  • Little real negotiation seen. Past patterns suggest a “face-saving” deal where both sides can claim victory is probable.

3. ACA Subsidies: Political Calculation

(13:37 – 17:11)

• Republican Dilemma:

  • Unenthusiastic about extending ACA subsidies, but nervous about being blamed for rising healthcare costs in an election year.

  • Vulnerable House Republicans are interested in a short extension; Freedom Caucus opposes.

  • Trump’s unpredictable stance is central—he likes bipartisan deals, but also walks back support amid GOP pressure.

    • Gabe: “Donald Trump’s never been a big fan of Republican orthodoxy ... this is a deal that I could have seen him striking.” (16:09)

4. Blame Game and the Democrats’ Strategy

(17:12 – 25:41)

• Public Perception:

  • Americans instinctively blame the GOP—possibly due to their “anti-government” brand.
    • Gabe: “For most Americans: Who is the party that likes government and who’s the party that doesn't? ... The Republicans—they always like to shut the government down.” (18:20)
  • Dems capitalizing on strong polling; if blame was reversed, “they’d be freaking out.” (21:10)

• Negotiation Endgame:

  • Most likely: Republicans agree to allow a vote or commit to negotiations, but not a full substantive deal before reopening government.
    • Gabe: “I still think that’s the likeliest end here.” (24:39)

• Savviness:

  • Dems’ ask (ACA subsidies) is more achievable than the GOP’s “undo Obamacare” in past shutdowns.

5. Democrats’ 2026 Strategy: Healthcare & Economic Populism

(26:40 – 32:14)

• Election Framing:

  • Dems blending healthcare cost concerns with populist “tax cuts for billionaires hurt everyone else” messaging.
    • Galen: “Democrats want to try to create... you’re giving tax cuts to billionaires... healthcare costs for Americans go up. It’s an axis of conflict.” (26:42)
  • Healthcare remains central—protecting the ACA is popular and unites Democrats.

• Internal GOP Divisions:

  • Trump’s populist tilt puts him at odds with purist Republicans like Mike Johnson, Ted Cruz. This issue highlights division between GOP establishment and populist wings.

6. California Gubernatorial Race & the Katie Porter Interview Flap

(32:15 – 40:05)

• Viral Moment:

  • Katie Porter, Democratic candidate, fumbles a local TV interview, saying she doesn’t need Trump voters—then reacts poorly to follow-ups, threatens to end the interview.
    • Galen and Gabe recount the awkwardness humorously, noting this isn’t how politicians are supposed to behave. “You're never saying you don't need voters. That's just not something politicians ever say.” (33:19, Gabe)

• Political Impact:

  • Unclear if the moment is “seasonal change,” but could encourage Sen. Alex Padilla to enter the race.
  • Porter's poor media skills resurface old gripes about her management and temperament.

• Broader Media Critique:

  • Galen argues American media coddles Democratic politicians, resulting in atrophied debate skills and few tough interviews:
    • “If you get into politics, it’s because you like debating ideas … [in UK media] politicians come to play… In America, that’s atrophied.” (40:54)
    • Gabe notes: “It was shocking to see how unprepared she was for an adversarial interview ... if she's only ever gone on Rachel Maddow, then it somewhat makes sense.” (44:33–46:13)

7. Optimism on Political Violence and Free Speech in America

(46:14 – 56:43)

• Key Findings (from Gabe’s newsletter):

  • Despite high-profile violence (e.g., the assassination of Charlie Clark), support for political violence is minuscule (<1%), drops after such events, and most Americans firmly support free speech.
    • Gabe: “Before the Kirk assassination, 97 to 3 [opposed political violence]...after... that’s down to 99 to 1.” (48:14)
    • The debate on free speech is similarly lopsided: Americans overwhelmingly support the right to dissent—even post-assassination.

• Polling pitfalls:

  • Polls can exaggerate support for violence if questions are too broad. Specificity dramatically lowers reported support.
    • Galen: “When you stop and impress upon people ... you get fewer Americans supporting political violence.” (51:01)

• Perception Gap:

  • Each side assumes the other supports violence at rates far higher than reality (33% perception vs <1% reality), fueling polarization.
    • Gabe: “We’re having these debates with caricatures of the other side.” (54:23)

8. National Guard Deployments: Legal Gray Zones

(56:44 – 66:02)

• Trump’s Playbook:

  • Trump invokes statutory powers to deploy the National Guard to cities (Portland, Chicago) under the pretext of lawlessness.

  • Old legal precedents (e.g., Luther v. Borden, 1849) suggest courts often defer to the president on such matters—a true “Humpty Dumpty” (president decides meaning) power that could set broad precedent for executive authority.

    • Gabe: “It’s a little bit hard to say ... no recent precedent ... we're talking about cases from the 1800s.” (58:13; 60:37)
    • Supreme Court has recently shown willingness to defer to president’s claims of emergency in security and foreign policy, but domestic use is less tested.

• Future Legal Battles:

  • Key question: Does a “president’s determination” create an emergency, or must it be justiciable (reviewable by courts)?
  • Recent track record on related powers (Alien Enemies Act) mixed; some courts have required proof, others have deferred.
    • Galen: “If the president says there is an insurrection, there is an insurrection—how would any court go about determining otherwise?” (62:45)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the muted public reaction:

  • Galen: “We haven’t heard about lawmakers negotiating very much … this doesn’t feel like a pressure cooker situation like past shutdowns have felt.” (01:30)

• On the key political messaging during shutdowns:

  • Gabe: “What better talking point can you have than, like, our men and women in uniform are not being paid?” (10:19)

• On the Democrats’ strategic leverage:

  • Galen: “Because the polls show voters are blaming Republicans more, they feel like they've got it pretty good. … On whichever axis the conflict is playing out, Democrats are winning.” (21:30)

• On Los Angeles–media adversity:

  • Galen: “If you get into politics, it’s because you like debating ideas... In American media, that’s atrophied.” (40:54)
  • Gabe: “It was shocking to see how unprepared she was for an adversarial interview.” (44:33)

• On political violence reality vs perception:

  • Gabe: “If you ask Democrats or Republicans... how much of the other party would support [violence]? It’s a third. The average response is both, when it’s actually less than 1%.” (54:23)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:50–06:30]: Who’s affected & why shutdown feels different
• [06:31–13:36]: Pressure points and blame
• [13:37–17:11]: ACA subsidy politics
• [17:12–25:41]: Blame game, polling, and negotiation endgame
• [26:40–32:14]: Dems’ strategy—healthcare & populism
• [32:15–40:05]: Katie Porter interview; California governor race
• [40:06–46:13]: American political interview culture
• [46:14–56:43]: Political violence & free speech; perception gaps
• [56:44–66:02]: National Guard deployments, legal context and precedents

Conclusion

This episode offers a deep, nuanced look at the shutdown’s causes, impacts, and possible resolution, plus engaging side trips through campaign gaffes, political culture, and hot legal controversies. Throughout, the hosts’ rigorous yet witty approach helps demystify the forces shaping American politics in fall 2025.

“These are two ideas that Americans still really overwhelmingly oppose: political violence, and … government intervention into free speech.” — Gabe Fleischer (50:31)

For more episodes and insights, visit gdpolitics.com