GD POLITICS Podcast: Is Alex Pretti's Killing A Turning Point?

Host: Galen Druke
Guests: Mary Radcliffe (Head of Research, 50 plus one), Nathaniel Rakich (Managing Editor, Vote Beat)
Date: January 26, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode, recorded as an emergency installment, addresses the recent killing of Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old ICU nurse, by a federal immigration officer in Minneapolis. The panel examines whether this event—which follows closely after a similar killing—could represent a pivotal moment for U.S. politics, immigration policy, and public attitudes toward immigration enforcement under the Trump administration.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background and Immediate Reactions

• Context: Alex Pretti’s shooting is the second by a federal immigration officer in Minneapolis within three weeks, following the death of protester Renee Good.
  • Host Introduction: “This is not a capture Maduro type event that seems to land on us out of nowhere... This is a long running trend that all of a sudden has an extremely sympathetic symbol of sort of what has gone wrong.” (00:00, Galen)
• The Trump administration labeled both victims as domestic terrorists and allegedly fabricated aspects of the incidents, but backlash this time included some Republicans and the NRA, alongside Democrats and independents.
• The public, lawmakers, and even some Republicans are growing impatient with Trump’s immigration enforcement tactics.

2. Is This a Turning Point?

• Initial Takes:
  • Nathaniel: Feels there’s something notable about this killing—Republican criticism of Trump is “actual juice behind reform or at least a turning point.” He draws parallels to Jan 6th, noting a familiar pattern where GOP backlash can be strong but fleeting. (03:00)
  • Mary: Raises questions about what a "turning point" truly means, arguing that calls for investigation don’t always translate into policy change—citing January 6th as a case where apparent turning points ultimately changed little. (05:10)
• Parallels Drawn:
  • Jan 6th was a rare GOP break from Trump but produced little sustained change.
  • The George Floyd protests led to significant activism but less policy change.
  • Gun control following mass shootings: Attention and polling swing in the short term, but baseline attitudes tend to revert. (29:00, Nathaniel)

3. The Political Stakes: Polls, Public Opinion, and Policy

• Host’s Argument:
  Galen suggests this event could be a real turning point, as the 2022 border crisis was for Biden, possibly radicalizing Americans against hardline immigration enforcement. (08:16, 41:35)
• Polling Landscape:
  • Mary’s Data: Trump’s approval on immigration is underwater by 9 points; on deportations, by 11 (Strength in Numbers polling). Both have dipped since the Renee Good shooting. (12:59)
  • Despite these dips, immigration remains one of Trump’s “better” issues relative to his overall approval. ICE’s favorability is even lower (14 points underwater in January). (13:43)
  • CNN’s January poll: 52% of Americans thought Trump has gone “too far” in deporting immigrants, rising to 57% among independents. (15:54, Mary)
• Nuanced Views:
  Both Mary and Nathaniel emphasize that many Americans want strong border security, but not indiscriminate or violent enforcement.
  • “I think there is some nuance here where Republicans certainly still support deporting everyone living here illegally...But Americans are looking at what they’re seeing and they’re saying this is too much. And this is before this news of this weekend.” (15:54, Mary)

4. What Does ‘Abolish ICE’ Mean?

• Interpretation issues: Polls show high support for the idea of abolishing ICE, but definitions vary dramatically. Among Democrats: roughly a third mean to fully eliminate ICE and its functions, a third to reallocate its functions, and a third mean replacement with a more functional agency.
• Nathaniel cautions: “It’s easy to be against something. It’s harder to come up with a policy like a concrete solution that everybody can agree with.” (26:14)
• Mary critiques Democratic ambiguity: Slogans like "abolish ICE" or previously, "defund the police," can act as traps—being seized upon by opponents to frame the party as extreme, when Democrats themselves often hold more nuanced or intermediate positions. (26:25, Mary)

5. Legislative and Political Fallout

• Shutdown Risk:
  • The government faces a potential shutdown over DHS/ICE funding. Several moderate Democratic senators now say they won’t support any bill with current ICE funding levels. (07:33, Nathaniel; 32:54, Galen)
  • Even after new restrictions (“guardrails”) were placed on ICE in the pending funding package, fresh outrage after Pretti’s death has increased the odds of a shutdown or renewed fight over funding.
• Republican Responses:
  • Some high-profile and MAGA-aligned Republicans have called for investigations, including OK Gov Kevin Stitt and Rep. Max Miller, suggesting cracks even among normally loyal supporters. (03:00, Nathaniel)
  • The NRA’s criticism, focused on gun rights (Pretti was legally armed), marks an unusual broadening of opposition. (41:35, Galen)
• Democratic Positioning:
  • Mary highlights that, so far, the party is pushing for reforms and guardrails rather than full abolition or defunding. Proposals include body cameras, limits on ICE masks, and reduced funding. (31:37, Mary)

6. Historical Parallels and Enduring Impact

• Do “Focusing Events” Matter?
  Galen argues the Pretti killing is not isolated like the Maduro capture but the culmination of mounting discontent, likening its potential to how Hurricane Katrina symbolized wider failure for Bush or how the Afghanistan withdrawal became emblematic for Biden.
  • “This is a high profile, focusing event that will become representative of a broader failure of the Trump administration.” (41:35, Galen)
• Skepticism:
  Both Mary and Nathaniel note that media cycles move quickly, and even shocking events may fade in influence by the midterms unless ICE’s aggressive presence continues. However, polling shows immigration and enforcement are currently the #2 or #3 issues for both Democrats and Republicans. (36:44, Mary)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Republican Break with Trump:
  “It is notable anytime you see a Republican criticize him…not from the Lisa Murkowski of the world…but from people like Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt, who…said ‘What is the goal right now? Is it to deport every single non US Citizen? I don’t think that’s what Americans want.’” (03:00, Nathaniel)

• On Policy Paralysis:
  “My question is, what does a turning point actually mean? …Does anything actually happen? …The answer was no. Nothing happened [after Jan 6th].” (05:10, Mary)

• On the Dangers of Vague Slogans:
  “If you have these slogans that indicate action items, but the action items are vaguely defined, then the opposition to your party has the opportunity to shape that into whatever they want it to be.” (26:25, Mary)

• On the Polling Complexity:
  “It’s easy to be against something. It’s harder to come up with a policy, like a concrete solution that everybody can agree with.” (26:14, Nathaniel)

• On Enduring Impact:
  “Will this…become emblematic of like, the withdrawal from Afghanistan when…really the bottom started to fall out for Biden? I am inclined to think that’s possible.” (41:35, Galen)

Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-----------|---------------------| | 00:00 | Galen’s introduction, review of recent events, sets up the emergency nature of the episode. | | 02:11 | Panel introductions and opening impressions—Is this a turning point? | | 03:00 | Nathaniel: GOP breaking ranks, analogy to Jan 6th. | | 05:10 | Mary: What is a turning point? Skepticism about action. | | 06:52 | Discussion of George Floyd, Minneapolis, and possible protest parallels. | | 07:33 | Shutdown politics: Moderate Dems threaten to withhold ICE funding. | | 08:16 | Galen: Public opinion trends and whether Trump is radicalizing Americans. | | 12:59 | Mary: Detailed breakdown of polling related to immigration approval. | | 15:54 | CNN poll: Majority say Trump has gone “too far” in deportations. | | 20:19 | How polling questions and question structure change public results. | | 24:36 | Data for Progress parsing "abolish ICE" definitions. | | 26:14 | Nathaniel: Hard to move from being ‘against’ to specific alternative policies. | | 31:37 | Mary: Dems have shifted to reformist—not abolition—measures for ICE. | | 36:44 | Issue salience: Where does immigration rank among priorities? | | 41:35 | Galen: This event could be emblematic, not a one-off. Katrina/Afghanistan analogies. | | 45:00 | Mary and Nathaniel respond: Will this matter in November? | | 46:21 | Podcast wrap and acknowledgments. |

Conclusion

The GD POLITICS panel unpacks the complexities and context of Alex Pretti’s killing and the broader conflict over immigration enforcement. While there’s palpable energy and new cracks even among the GOP, all three grapple with the definition and practical import of a “turning point.” The hosts are divided: Mary and Nathaniel caution that the American news cycle’s speed and the real distance to the midterms might blunt any enduring effect, while Galen presses the case that this event—unlike a random, fleeting story—may well crystallize and symbolize deeper currents of dissatisfaction, setting the stage for lasting political and policy consequences.