GD POLITICS Podcast — “Is College Worth It? 1 In 4 Degrees Are Not”

Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Preston Cooper (Economist, Senior Fellow at AEI)
Date: August 14, 2025

Overview

This episode of GD POLITICS dives into the increasingly fraught topic of higher education in America, wrestling with the question: "Is college worth it?" Host Galen Druke and guest economist Preston Cooper unpack the latest data on the return on investment (ROI) for U.S. college degrees. They explore why nearly one in four degrees fail to provide a positive financial return, the underlying factors driving this phenomenon, how the landscape is changing, and what students and institutions should take away from this research. The conversation balances detailed data analysis with lively anecdotes and broader questions about the social and intrinsic value of higher education.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Multifaceted Crisis in Higher Education

[00:17–01:47]

• American higher education faces political pressure (notably from President Trump targeting elite universities), debates over antisemitism, race considerations, federal funding cuts, and student loan restrictions.
• Broader, longer-term issues include skyrocketing tuition, doubts over degree value, persistent gender imbalances (women now earn 60% of bachelor’s degrees), demographic shifts leading to declining enrollments, and emerging disruptions from artificial intelligence (AI).

Notable quote:

"There are emerging questions about how artificial intelligence will change the value of a college degree and shrink the availability of entry-level jobs." — Galen Druke [00:36]

2. Is College Worth It? The Data-Driven Answer

[02:22–06:28]

• Average/Overall ROI: The average bachelor’s degree is still worth it—if you graduate on time, pay reasonable tuition, and choose a “not completely silly” major. But many caveats exist.

  • 77% of bachelor’s programs analyzed generate a positive ROI; however, 23% do not.
  • Shapes a sizable minority of students left worse off financially for attending college.

• Master’s and Associate Degrees: Far riskier in terms of ROI. Over 40% of master’s and associate’s degree programs leave graduates worse off, often due to low program value or low completion rates.

• Professional Degrees (Medical, Law, etc): Consistently high ROI—often lifetime gains close to or above $1 million.

Notable quote:

"For associate degrees, a big reason for [negative ROI] is non completion... For master's degrees... they're charging way more in tuition than they do for undergraduate credentials. And often the value of these credentials in the labor market really isn't that great." — Preston Cooper [04:29]

Example:

Columbia University’s film master’s program: median debt $180,000, median starting salary $30,000. [05:17]

3. The Data: How ROI Is Measured

[08:42–11:18]

• Program-by-program, institution-specific analysis, relying on the federal College Scorecard and census data.
• Looks at actual graduate salaries 4–5 years post-graduation; models expected earnings up to 10–20 years.
• Compares graduate outcomes to likely earnings without college, adjusts for local economic factors and student demographics, subtracts not just tuition but also the opportunity cost of time.
• ROI calculus: If lifetime earnings boost > total costs, positive ROI; otherwise, negative.

4. Majors Matter: Where the Money Is (and Isn't)

[11:18–14:34]

• Fine Arts: The outlier—only bachelor’s major with a median negative ROI.
• Top Majors: Engineering, computer science, nursing, economics, science, and to a lesser extent, political science, score highly.
• Social Value v. Financial Value: The hosts debate whether “cold calculations” of earnings should dictate societal support for the arts.

Notable quote:

"If they are not getting that ROI, I think that that is going to fuel a lot of distrust of college, and that will lead to more students choosing not to go to college at all." — Preston Cooper [15:23]

• Student Loans: Earnings disparities affect capacity to repay loans, leading to potential defaults among lower-earning graduates, notably in fine arts.

5. The Intangible Benefits of College

[14:34–17:39]

• Networking and social capital do somewhat show up in salary data, but personal meaning, civic engagement, and broader well-being derived from college go beyond financial ROI.
• Nonetheless, most students cite economic motivations for attending college.
• Suggestions for institutions: Provide better internship support, align curriculum more closely with labor market needs, and proactively address low-ROI programs.

6. ROI Standouts and Outliers

[17:39–20:15]

• Highest ROI: Computer engineering at Princeton ($7M+)—but the program is tiny (24 students).
• Lowest ROI: Music at Johns Hopkins University (negative $1M).
• Takeaway: Big-picture impact comes from mid-to-high ROI programs serving many students (e.g., nursing at large public universities), not flashy extremes.

7. Trades, Certificates, and the College v. Trade School Debate

[20:15–22:06]

• Technical/trade certificates and certain associate degrees (especially in nursing, welding, etc.) sometimes beat average bachelor’s ROI.
• But there are also many poor-performing certificate programs (e.g., cosmetology).
• The field of study is far more predictive than “four-year college vs. trade school.” Avoid binary thinking.

Notable quote:

"Rather than saying, you know, go to college versus go to trade school, I would say look at the individual fields of study within each of those and examine the ROI for each of those fields." — Preston Cooper [21:31]

8. Has the Value of College Changed Over Time?

[22:06–23:45]

• Bachelor’s wage premium rose steadily until around 2000; it has stagnated or declined since.
• The credential still pays off on average, but the edge over high school graduates is narrowing.
• Context emphasizes the importance of evaluating each program individually, rather than relying on historic generalizations.

9. ROI: Signaling v. Skills

[23:45–25:51]

• The ROI of a degree comes from both signaling (certifying abilities and drive to employers) and acquired skills.
• The split between these factors is hotly debated in academic economics.

Notable quote:

"The skills are important as well. But this really is one of the most fundamental debates in higher education economics. How much of it is the signal versus how much of it is the skills?" — Preston Cooper [24:54]

10. The AI Disruption: Is a White-Collar Degree Losing Its Edge?

[25:51–26:38]

• AI is reportedly eroding entry-level, white-collar job opportunities—the very roles bachelor’s degrees are designed to fill.
• The episode preview ends before this topic is fully explored, but both host and guest acknowledge it as a significant new force buffeting higher education.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• ROI is Not Universal:

  "If any of those things are not true... that value proposition starts to look very questionable." — Preston Cooper [02:54]

• On the Dangers of High-Priced, Low-Worth Degrees:

  "People owe six times more than they earn when they come out of this program. And they're simply never going to get a return on investment for programs like that." — Preston Cooper [05:22]

• Skepticism Around Arts Degrees:

  "If you're getting a degree in fine arts... it's going to be much less likely that you're going to be able to pay back those loans in full." — Preston Cooper [13:23]

• The True Leaders in Economic Value:

  "The programs that do the best on this mobility index tend to be registered nursing programs at large public universities." — Preston Cooper [19:38]

• The College v. Trade School False Dichotomy:

  "The field of study within each of those categories really matters a lot more." — Preston Cooper [21:01]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Challengers Facing Higher Ed — [00:17–01:47]
• Is College Worth It? (ROI Basics) — [02:22–06:28]
• How ROI is Calculated — [08:42–11:18]
• Major-by-Major ROI — [11:18–14:34]
• Non-financial Benefits of College — [14:34–17:39]
• ROI Outliers — [17:39–20:15]
• Trade School vs. College — [20:15–22:06]
• Historical ROI Trends — [22:06–23:45]
• Signaling vs. Skills — [23:45–25:51]
• AI and Job Market Disruption — [25:51–26:38]

Final Thoughts

This data-rich yet accessible episode challenges the “college is always worth it” narrative. Listeners are left with practical takeaways:

• Most—but not all—degrees pay off.
• The degree, institution, field of study, and cost all matter profoundly.
• The college vs. trade school debate misses the real issue: program-specific outcomes vary widely in both routes.
• The rapidly changing job market and technological disruption make up-to-date, personalized data more important than ever.

For more detailed ROI analysis, the guest’s data and calculator receive multiple mentions as valuable resources for prospective students.