Podcast Summary: "Is Venezuela The Next Iraq?"

GD POLITICS with Galen Druke
Date: December 18, 2025
Guest: Michael O'Hanlon, Phil Knight Chair in Defense and Strategy, Brookings Institution

Overview

This episode dives into rising tensions between the US and Venezuela, following a series of US military actions in the Caribbean and escalating rhetoric from the Trump administration. Host Galen Druke and defense analyst Michael O'Hanlon critically examine if Venezuela could become the next Iraq, consider the legal and strategic dimensions of American intervention, and parse the motives behind the sudden uptick in military focus on Venezuela. “Is the U.S. already at war with Venezuela? And if not, how close are we—and why?” is the core theme.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State of U.S.-Venezuela Relations and Military Escalation

• Escalation Overview ([00:30]–[02:17])

  • Recent U.S. military strikes targeting alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean.
  • The Trump administration labels these groups as terrorist organizations.
  • Notable recent events: US seizing a Venezuelan oil tanker and President Trump announcing a blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers.

• Notable Quote:

  "The stated goal of the strikes has been to stop drug traffickers that the Trump administration has labeled terrorist organizations. But there are questions about the legality of the strikes and questions about whether the goal is really to put pressure on Maduro with the hopes of ousting him."
  — Galen Druke [01:08]

2. Is the U.S. Already at War?

• Legal Thresholds and Historical Precedents ([03:02]–[07:24])

  • Blockades are historically and legally acts of war.
  • Drawing on the Monroe Doctrine and its Roosevelt Corollary, O'Hanlon places Trump's strategy within America's long-standing pattern of hemispheric assertiveness.

• Trump’s Likely Approach:

  • Preference for limited use of force (air power, blockades, special forces), not large-scale ground invasions.
  • Models: U.S. airstrikes against ISIS, targeted killings (Soleimani), Israeli air operations.

• Notable Quote:

  "A blockade historically and legally is considered a form of war and instrument of war. And so maybe we're already there..."
  — Michael O'Hanlon [03:02]

3. What’s the Endgame? Motives, Political Context, and Historical Analogies

• Why Oust Maduro Now? ([07:24]–[09:53])

  • Personal animosity (Maduro as a Chavez successor and anti-American figure).
  • Geopolitical and domestic politics: Influence in the Florida political sphere, narcotraffic concerns, strategic competition with the Cuba-Venezuela axis.
  • Parallels to Iraq: Ousting dictators justified as national security.

• Overconfidence & American Political DNA ([12:12]–[14:20])

  • American history of restlessness, seeking action.
  • Concerns about repeating the mistake of believing in “quick, clean” regime-change campaigns.

• Notable Quote:

  "Trump has a feeling in his gut...he can make big change happen with limited amounts of power. That's a scary thought when you hearken back to the days when George W. Bush had the same hope about overthrowing Saddam quickly and easily."
  — Michael O'Hanlon [07:45]

4. Is It About Oil? Business Interests vs. National Security

• Economic Incentives ([14:20]–[17:02])

  • Opposition leaders in Venezuela signaling willingness to cooperate with U.S. oil interests.
  • Both host and guest skeptical that economic motivations alone justify intervention. The Iraq precedent shows such motives often lead to disappointment.

• Notable Quote:

  "...There's nothing against wishing for prosperity that would help the Venezuelan people as well as the global economy. But I just worry about a lot of scenarios that could drive Maduro from power and not replace him with anything stable enough to actually allow this transformation in economic relations to occur."
  — Michael O'Hanlon [15:24]

5. The Role of Congress: Legality and Precedent

• Should Congress Authorize Force? ([17:02]–[18:55])

  • O'Hanlon strongly argues for Congressional debate and authorization when contemplating regime change.
  • Points out a bipartisan tendency since WWII to bypass Congress, but recent large-scale interventions (Desert Storm, Iraq, Afghanistan) did get approvals.

• Notable Quote:

  "I think Congress should vote on that and should be asked to vote on that by the Trump White House. ...I think when you talk about targeting a regime with the potential...to require follow on operations to help stabilize the country as the previous regime falls, that’s exactly the kind of situation where Congress can and should be involved."
  — Michael O'Hanlon [17:12]

6. Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios

• Best-Case Scenario ([18:55]–[20:33])

  • Maduro steps down voluntarily, receives asylum, and recommends transition to a caretaker government (possibly Ms. Machado), eventually paving way for elections overseen by international bodies.

• Venezuelan Public Opinion ([20:33]–[21:57])

  • 80% of Venezuelans want regime change; only 23% support foreign military intervention; economy is the top concern, more than national security.

• Notable Quote:

  "The best case...is that Maduro voluntarily steps down, having secured a place to have asylum. ...and then ask his military leadership to collaborate in the establishment of Ms. Machado as President, or at least a caretaker government..."
  — Michael O'Hanlon [19:05]

• Worst-Case Scenario

  • Discussion cut off for non-subscribers, but implied concerns about chaos, instability, or Vietnam/Iraq-like quagmires.

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• "When you get to the point where the president himself is using terms that are associated with international legal definitions of war...I think that's the time when you've reached the threshold."
  — Michael O'Hanlon [00:00]

• "We actually implemented that policy a lot...a lot of small, limited operations, mostly maritime, and they did not do big invasions."
  — Michael O'Hanlon [04:37]

• "The opposition leader of Venezuela is making the explicit appeal: Hey, if you oust Maduro and I'm in power, I am going to work with you to make sure that we can capitalize on Venezuela's oil reserves."
  — Galen Druke [14:20]

• "We, as usual, thought that the next military operation would be easier than it turned out to be. So I worry about this overconfidence, but I think it reflects an American restlessness that's almost in our strategic DNA."
  — Michael O'Hanlon [13:10]

Important Timestamps

• [00:30] — Host’s news recap: strikes, blockade, oil, military deployments
• [03:02] — Is the U.S. at war already? Legal/historical context
• [07:45] — Why does Trump want to oust Maduro? Parallels to Iraq/Saddam
• [12:12] — Why now? The timing and political restlessness
• [14:20] — Is it about oil? Opposition promises and history lessons
• [17:12] — Should Congress vote on intervention?
• [19:05] — Best-case scenario for U.S. involvement
• [20:33] — Venezuelan public opinion on intervention

Tone and Style

The conversation balances rigorous analysis with candid, sometimes wry commentary. Galen Druke pushes for skeptical, clarifying questions, while O'Hanlon provides both historical context and cautious strategic analysis. Both speakers emphasize nuance and realism over sensationalism.

For More

The full conversation, including discussion of intervention pitfalls, legality of ongoing strikes, and broader American defense strategy, is available for paid subscribers at GDPolitics.com.