Live At The Comedy Cellar With Nate Silver And Clare Malone

Summary

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GD POLITICS: Live At The Comedy Cellar With Nate Silver And Clare Malone

Host: Galen Druke
Guests: Nate Silver, Clare Malone
Date: October 2, 2025
Location: Comedy Cellar, New York City
Episode Theme:
A lively, unscripted live taping focused on the latest and most contentious topics in American politics. Using a random selection game (“Hot Take Hat”), Galen, Nate, and Clare debate gerrymandering, the upcoming NYC mayoral race, First Amendment concerns, and more—with data-driven insight, sharp wit, and plenty of audience engagement.

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Main Theme & Purpose

The episode delivers an unpredictable and engaging live discussion of contemporary political issues, intentionally leaving the conversation structure to chance via a “Hot Take Hat.” With the 2025 election looming and news cycles relentless, the trio sets out to grapple with big questions—from government shutdown to mid-decade gerrymandering—while keeping things entertaining for a sold-out NYC crowd.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Introduction & Satirical “Preemption”

• (03:55) Galen jokingly claims the podcast is preempted for a live tribute to the former 538 mascot, Phi B. Fox, poking fun at Disney/538/D.C. politics and NYC’s war on rats.
• The interruption is staged: “You can take away Eric Adams dignity, you can take away his shot at a second term. But you cannot take away his status of the New York City king of rats.” —Galen ([02:43])
• Quick recovery to regular programming, establishing the evening’s playful, self-aware tone: “I was told you would all leave, so we have to return to regularly scheduled programming.” —Galen ([04:02])

2. Setting the Agenda & Hot Take Hat

• (04:34–06:32) Galen introduces the new “Hot Take Hat” game: topics are drawn at random and debated live.
• Audience participation is encouraged (“What’s your name? Aaron. You’ll help me as well.”), creating an improvisational atmosphere.

3. Issue One: Mid-Decade Gerrymandering

• [07:02–12:03]
• Nate & Clare dissect mid-decade redistricting, situating it in U.S. political history and institutional erosion.
  • Nate: “On the scale of how actually much does it … atrophy democracy, it’s high, like an 8. On the scale of how Trumpian it is, it’s like a two. … The GOP has been doing this kind of thing for a long period of time.” ([07:52])
  • Clare: Draws a metaphor between gerrymandering and “cancer of democracy,” probing how systemic or symptomatic the practice is ([08:17]).
  • They agree: gerrymandering is a longstanding bipartisan tool, now escalating as constraints erode, and Democratic self-restraint post-2010 backfired in blue states.
  • Galen: “So what we’re leading towards is just like an all out redistricting war, the likes of which we maybe haven’t seen before, because there used to be a little constraint to save the incumbents…” ([10:48])
  • Clare: “I mean, I’m against gerrymandering, period. … [That] would have been a joke, but now it does feel like…” ([11:17])
  • Nate: Counterintuitively, frequent redistricting is “not an erosion of anything much except like an obvious, like, way that the game is going based on how the game’s been played so far.” ([11:27])

4. Issue Two: NYC Mayoral Race

• [12:15–18:08]
• A look at the wide-open New York mayoral contest:
  • Galen: “According to the polling averages at Decision Desk HQ, currently Zoran Mamdani has 45% support... Andrew Cuomo has 27%, Curtis Sliwa 12%, and Eric Adams … 8%.” ([12:40])
  • Playful on-stage data quizzes and inside-baseball jokes, referencing Chicago politics and the quirks of prediction markets.
  • Nate: “Cuomo would need multiple things to go right... Adams only had 8 or 9% of the vote. ... That reduces the lead from 20 points to 15 points... mayoral polling is often quite bad.... I think 15% [for Cuomo] is a little high. It might be 10% and people neglect 10% chances.” ([14:01])
  • Galen polls the crowd for their candidate support—humorous, unscientific, and revealing of the venue’s leanings.
  • Nate: “The alternative is Andrew Cuomo or a guy wearing a red beanie and like, it’s probably not going to now wear hats.” ([15:06])
  • They dissect New York’s nationalized, sometimes unpredictable urban politics: “The fact that you’re trying to call the Super Avengers together and, like, team up against Sauron [Zoran] kind of, like, plays into his message a little bit.” —Nate ([17:33])
  • They flag the real volatility: “When you do election forecasting, you … have to say, okay, crazy things happen in politics… If Sliwa drops out, then it does get quite close.... which is why I might say 10%, not 2% or 5%.” —Nate ([17:33])

5. Preview of Upcoming Live Show

• [18:08–18:41]: They announce their next live show will take place the day before 2025’s Election Day.
  • Galen: “We’re doing another live show on November 3rd at the Comedy Cellar… Only New York gets live shows. We keep hearing from, like, Washington, D.C. … but then, like, Pittsburgh. ... Never mind. We’re coming to Pittsburgh. You heard it here first.” ([18:52])

6. Issue Three: Vaccines

• [19:02]: As time runs out, Galen introduces “Vaccines” from the hat.
  • Quick, comic consensus: “Pro. Claire, you go. Hate them, actually, but. Tylenol. Love Tylenol.” —Galen & Clare ([19:02])
  • Segment is cut short as episode preview ends.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I was looking forward to Claire’s 5e Fox inspired rendition of Danny Boy, Galen.”—Nate ([04:01])
• “Let's do a metaphor. Let's say the country has cancer of the democracy. Where does mid decade redistricting fall in the scope of treatment?”—Clare ([08:17])
• “So what we’re leading towards is just like an all out redistricting war, the likes of which we maybe haven’t seen before…”—Galen ([10:48])
• “If you’re going to have gerrymandering, it’s actually better to do it every two years and not every 10 years.”—Nate ([11:27])
• “The alternative is Andrew Cuomo or a guy wearing a red beanie and … it’s probably not going to now wear hats.”—Nate ([15:06])
• “The fact that you’re trying to call the Super Avengers together and, like, team up against Sauron [Zoran] kind of, like, plays into his message a little bit.”—Nate ([17:33])
• “Never mind. We’re coming to Pittsburgh. You heard it here first.”—Galen ([19:01])

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Important Timestamps

| Time | Segment/Comment | |----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:55 | Satirical opening—Phi B. Fox “tribute” and NYC rats | | 04:34 | Introduction of "Hot Take Hat" segment | | 07:02 | First topic: Mid-decade gerrymandering | | 08:17 | Clare’s “cancer of democracy” metaphor | | 10:48 | Galen on escalating “redistricting wars” | | 12:31 | Second topic: NYC mayoral race—poll numbers and odds | | 14:01 | Nate on Cuomo’s needed comeback odds | | 17:33 | Nate on nationalized nature of NYC mayoral race | | 18:35 | Announcement: upcoming live Election Eve show | | 19:02 | Third topic: Vaccines (abrupt comic answer before episode ends) |

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Tone & Language

• The episode combines rigorous, data-informed political analysis with sardonic, self-deprecating humor and New York edge.
• Frequent meta-commentary (“Don’t break the fourth wall yet.”), willingness to poke fun at both themselves and the format, and improvisational banter—hallmarks of a live, irreverent taping.
• Honest disagreements, but shared skepticism about institutions, polling accuracy, and the increasingly zero-sum nature of American political conflict.

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Summary for New Listeners:
This live GD POLITICS episode is a fast-paced, brainy, and thoroughly entertaining plunge into the 2025 political landscape’s most contentious issues. Galen Druke, Clare Malone, and Nate Silver roast and analyze everything from gerrymandering arms races and the mayoral circus in NYC to the slow erosion of public trust and political norms—all with data, historical savvy, and the comic energy of a West Village crowd. If you want deep insights served with wit and candor, GD POLITICS live is appointment listening.

Transcript

[A]

Hey there, listeners. A couple things before we get started today. What you're about to hear is a live taping of the podcast with Nate Silver, Claire Malone and a sold out audience at the Comedy Cellar in New York City. It was honestly a blast. So a big thank you to everyone who came. This is the second live show we've done. We're a little over six months into creating this podcast and we're about a month away from election day. So I wanted to take this moment to offer listeners our first ever subscription discount. If you become a paid subscriber right [e-mail], you'll get 20% off on an annual subscription, meaning you'll become a paid subscriber for just $5 a month. With that subscription, you'll get twice as many episodes, including this live show. Regular subscribers are only going to get about 20 minutes of what was an hour and a half raucous live show. And believe me, it gets wilder as we go. Also, the paid version is unbleeped.

[B]

You.

[A]

You'll also have access to the video of the live [e-mail] the other thing I was going to mention is that Nate, Claire and I have another live show coming up at the Comedy Cellar on November 3rd, which is the day before Election Day 2025. So that's a heads up if you'd like to get tickets and also the kind of podcast you can look forward to when you become a paid subscriber. So go to gdpolitics.com to get 20% off a paid subscription right now. That's gdpolitics.com all right, here's the show.

[B]

Hello and welcome to GD Politics Live at the Comedy Cellar. I am Galen Droock alongside my dear friends Clark, Claire Malone and Nate Silver. Give him a round of applause. And you, my friends, are a sold out crowd in the West Village at the Village Underground at the Comedy Cellar in New York City. So give yourselves a round of applause. How are you guys doing tonight? Good. Well, that might change after you hear this. So, shortly before the show tonight, we received a note from our former boss, Bob Iger. As you may know, 538 used to be owned by Disney. And he let us know that this show has been preempted indefinitely. We are instead going to be doing a live tribute to to the former 538 mascot, Phi B. Fox. Wait, what happened? He was sadly caught up in Mayor Eric Adams war on rats New York. You can take away Eric Adams dignity, you can take away his Shot at a second term. But you cannot take away his status of the New York City king of rats. He's going to do a great job representing American interests in Saudi Arabia, by the way. Like I said, we won't be covering the news this evening. You'll hear nothing about the impending shutdown. You'll hear nothing about James Comey's indictment. You'll hear nothing about challenges to an independent fed or tariffs or vaccines or anything of the like. Instead, we have a WWE inspired tribute to 5e Fox. Kelsey, could you roll on the pyrotechnics, please? Actually, sorry, wait. Hold on one second. Hello? It's Bob. Uh huh. Uh huh. Well, one second, one second, one second. Is there any way we could get.

[A]

The rights to 5e back?

[B]

The furry community is absolutely losing.

[C]

Nate's the one with the lawyers.

[B]

Okay, okay, got it. Okay, I'll let. Okay. It's a business decision. We're back on. I was told you would all leave, so we have to return to regularly scheduled programming. Honestly, I was looking Forward to Claire's 5e Fox inspired rendition of Danny boy Galen.

[C]

That's greenface.

[B]

Am I allowed to make fun of Irish ethnic jokes? At the last live show I made fun of, I was like, I'm a Jew. I can make fun of Harry. I'm also Irish. I think I can make fun of him.

[C]

I know that's true.

[B]

Yeah, you know, oh, five E boy, the polls. The polls are calling. It's beautiful. Let's get to it. We have been given the go ahead. And so let me tell you what's on tap for this evening. As I gestured to. There's a lot of news going on right now. So much, in fact, that we couldn't actually narrow it down to what we actually wanted to talk about. So we're going to leave it to chance. We're introducing a brand new segment this evening called Hot take hat. So I have filled this hat with topics, and we are going to pull one out. You can see it's my lucky Green Bay packers hat. And Claire will help me. I think you can probably help me too. What's your name? Aaron. Aaron. Okay. So you'll help me as well. And we'll put the show together by chance. We are also going to talk about the most pressing story of the evening, I would say, which is that, well, when folks are listening to this in the future, they already may know whether or not the government has been shut down. But as of right now, we are 30 hours away from a government shutdown. Obviously, some Members of the Democratic Party were upset that congressional Democrats didn't shut it down last time. So will they shut it down this time and should they will debate here on stage. And then finally, it is not lost on us that we are in something of a sacred place for comedians at a time when the government is questioning First Amendment principles. So how else would we mark this grave threat to the republic than. You guessed it. By playing a game. So I am going to quote political satire. And Nate and Claire and you in the audience, my friends are going to guess which comedian setting. Okay? So stick around, and then we will have questions from the audience at the very end, assuming we have time. So with all that said, the ground rules established. Aaron, do you want to help me? Okay, here you go.

[C]

Wait, Galen, are we supposed to, like, have takes on this? What's.

[B]

Yes. Okay.

[C]

Nate, you're going first. This is just to preface. I feel like I'm. I'm like, not good at takes.

[D]

Is this, like NBA draft lottery situation where one flap was frozen? Right. You're trying to.

[B]

They're acting surprised. But we all came up with this game together.

[C]

Okay, I know, but it feels. It feels different when you're. Once you're under the hot stuff, don't.

[B]

Break the fourth wall yet.

[D]

Galen, we have an hour and a half.

[B]

Okay, here's the first one. You're not gonna like this, Claire. Okay, well, yeah, maybe you'll like it. Okay. Mid decade gerrymandering.

[D]

The ghost of 5e Fox is picking these topics, I think.

[B]

For or against?

[D]

Against.

[B]

Against.

[D]

But it's like, not like even that unprecedented. I mean, Texas did it and like, under Tom delay in, like, 2022, 2024, like other things that have happened so far, this is, I think, one of the more predictable things.

[C]

But on the scale. Right, like the sort of redistricting.

[B]

Right.

[C]

You. I think you have to take it in, like, the context in which it exists this time around.

[D]

So on the scale of, like, how actually much does it, like, atrophy democracy.

[C]

Yeah. I think that's what people are.

[D]

It's high, like an 8. Right. On the scale of how Trumpian it is, it's like a two. Because, like, the GOP has been doing this kind of thing for. For a long period of time. Right. So it's like not like a new or unique threat. Right. But like, it's kind of like the inevitable equilibrium that emerges when, like when the Supreme Court says you can do partisan gerrymandering. Right.

[C]

Yeah.

[D]

You can do mid district redistricting. Mid decade redistricting and like, solve for the equilibrium. And like, until.

[C]

Let's do a metaphor. Let's say the country has cancer of the democracy. Where does mid decade redistricting fall in the scope of treatment?

[B]

Is it like, I think it's testicles?

[C]

No, but I mean, don't muddy my bodily metaphor. Like, is it part of the. Is it part of the metastasization? Is it like part of the chemo that makes you lose your hair? Sorry, this is a dark metaphor.

[B]

Wait.

[C]

But it's what immediately sprung to mind. But, like, where is it in the field of like, bad.

[D]

It's the underlying risk factor, right? It's smoking cigarettes for 50 years and you get lung cancer.

[B]

You know what I mean?

[D]

It's like not. It's more like this has been happening for a long time. And this is, you know, look, we know what the rules are. You can district to your heart's content as long as you're not violating the Voting Rights act, which might be on its last legs anyway. Right. And the fact that like Democrats in New York, for example, have been taking half measures constantly. Like, we're gonna be districted in a.

[B]

Little bit of a partisan way, but not get too partisan.

[D]

Like, this is like, I think one.

[B]

Of the problems where exactly what happened, right? I mean, after the 2020.

[C]

Galen did a podcast on redistricting in, like 2019. You should all listen to it. It feels relevant.

[B]

I did, I did. In fact, it feels like I'll never shut up about gerrymandering as a result. But I mean, what happened was in the 2000 teens, Democrats got really burned by Republicans gerrymandering because they did so poorly in the 2010 midterms. And as a result, Republicans controlled a lot of state houses around the country. And Democrats, along with good government groups, said, wherever we can, let's try to change the rules so that there will be nonpartisan or bipartisan redistricting going forward. Now you may guess at what happened. They were most successful in blue states. So we're now in a situation where they have sort of, I don't know, cut their legs off in places like New York, California, Colorado, Virginia, and so are sort of hamstrung in terms of how they can respond to Republican gerrymandering. And look in those places like New York, Maryland, Virginia, Colorado and the likes, they're trying to undo that. California, obviously voters are going to make their decision this fall whether or not they can gerrymander for the rest of the decade, but it's not going to be this cycle. It's going to be the next cycle. And so once they change the rules, because in a lot of places, to amend the Constitution, it has to pass two different legislative bodies or sort of two consecutive years, and then they can change the rules. And so what we're leading towards is just like an all out redistricting war, the likes of which we maybe haven't seen before because there used to be a little constraint to save the incumbents. There was some good government arguments here and there. And now it's like, I think Democrats feel if we're actually going to resolve this issue, we just got to gerrymander to the mats and then maybe federally we can change the rules. But enough of this state by state stuff.

[C]

So where do you fall for or against?

[B]

For or against mid decade gerrymandering?

[C]

Yes.

[B]

I mean, I'm against gerrymandering, period. I made the bold.

[C]

A bold stance. I mean, it used to. That would have been a joke, but now it does feel like if you're.

[D]

Going to have gerrymandering, it's actually better to do it every two years and not every 10 years. Right. Because every 10 years introduces an element of arbitrariness. Who happened to do wellness One decadal election. Right. So like the doing it every two years part I don't think is an erosion of anything much except like an obvious, like, way that the game is going based on how the game's been played so far. But you're right, the issue is gerrymanding in general. I think it's like harder than people would assume in the Constitution to create good alternative standards. Right. And when trust erodes, and when trust institutions erodes, there's not much way around it, but. All right, Galen, you're getting bored. You're already fluffing the cap.

[B]

Aaron Rodgers is getting excited over here. Okay. Oh, I made a sports joke. I think that's the first time ever.

[C]

Was it properly executed?

[D]

Was that a jet set?

[C]

No, it's for Pittsburgh now.

[B]

Okay. It's a Green Bay packers hat.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Okay. Okay. Speaking of Aaron's, Aaron, can you help me again? You can read it. New York City mayoral. Ooh, okay. Yeah, here we go.

[C]

I am for New York City mayoral elections. That's right.

[B]

Okay. I actually, I prepared a little something. Okay. Yes, here we have it. According to the polling averages at Decision Desk HQ, currently Zoran Mamdani has 45% support in New York City. Andrew Cuomo has 27%, Curtis Lewa 12%, and Eric Adams, who, yes, dropped out of the race. Yesterday had has 8%. Do you want to guess at where the betting markets currently place or as of 1pm this afternoon, placed Mamdani's chances of winning?

[D]

I already wrote an article and did a podcast segment about this kid. I don't have to guess. I know.

[B]

Oh, you know. Okay.

[C]

Well, should I guess like 85% odds?

[B]

Like 85. It is literally 85% right here. Come on, you've been. She likes to pretend that like he's the data nerd and like, you know, like, you know, she can like bust his balls and tell jokes, but she's, she's good at the data too.

[C]

I didn't read your thing.

[B]

Can you. Yes, we. Sorry.

[C]

Could you. Could you summarize?

[D]

As long as you subscribe.

[B]

I do subscribe.

[C]

I do.

[B]

I don't think I read. I don't know if you.

[C]

This will interrupt this part of the long. If you have a corporate account, please subscribe to both their substacks even if.

[B]

You don't have a corporate account.

[C]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[B]

So is it game over? Like are we. Now that Eric Adams is out of the race, should we cover this like it's a real race?

[D]

No, I think Cuomo would need multiple things to go right and one of the things he needed to go right was Eric Adams dropping out. But like Adams only had 8 or 9% of the vote. They'll probably go 6 to 3 does Orion over Sliwa. Right. But like it's, you know, so that reduces the lead from 20 points to 15 points and you can get some math about like what happens with a 15 point lead. We have five and a half weeks to go roughly and we have, you know, it's a multi candidate race and mayoral polling is often quite bad. Zoran Bhit pulls by a lot, by the way, in June. So I think 15% is a little high. It might be 10% and people neglect 10% chances.

[B]

Sell those odds or buy.

[D]

I wouldn't aggressively. No, I mean, look, I think people are the type of people who trade at Polymarket, which, full disclosure, I am a consultant for.

[B]

By the way, I looked across Polymarket Kalsheet and predict it and they all said about the same. I didn't want to, you know, I don't want the appearance of influence from his corporate overlords, you know.

[D]

No, there's like this fantasy that if we got the right candidate, then we could, we could beat Zoran, which I guess I suppose sort of agree with. He's not at 50%. He's been very Impressive relative to any reasonable expectation. But like, he can be polarizing. New York is not that progressive. He's, you know, 45% right. But like, but the alternative is Andrew Cuomo or a guy wearing a red beanie and like, it's probably not going to now wear hats.

[B]

I'm not. Can we. Because this is a New York audience. I don't know. I don't know if we want to like show our ass here and like what the audience's preferences actually are. So let's get. Can we get.

[C]

Yeah, show your ass.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. Okay. By round of applause. Can we get a round of applause for Zoran Mamdani? Okay.

[C]

Their asses have roses tattooed all over them.

[B]

Can we get a round of applause for Andrew Cuomo? Okay, wait, wait, hold on. Can we get a round of applause for Curtis Sliwa? And the crowd goes wild.

[D]

No, but that indicates something, right? Like we're not the most left wing crew. Right. I guess people are young here, which I appreciate, but like people who are on. I mean, Cuomo has just been a very uncompelling, unconvincing candidate. Right. I'm not going to say who I'm going to vote for, but like, as somebody who likes. Might be ideologically more aligned with the center left branch, the Democrats, I have found it hard to find reasons to want to vote for Cuomo, who seems not that interested in New York City, who seems not that interested in running any type of positive message. Right. But I don't know, I mean, if it had been the case in the primary, the polls overestimated Zoran, then you might say, okay, maybe there are shy Cuomo voters, probably more people here. It's New York, right? Comedy seller.

[B]

People might want to.

[C]

What would Andrew Cuomo's team be saying right now?

[B]

Andrew Cuomo, that his supporters are not in the. In Greenwich Village in New York City at a comedy show at 6 o' clock on a Monday.

[D]

That's what they say, right?

[B]

Taking care of their families. They're in the outer boroughs, which is true.

[D]

No, I remember like going to the, you know, in the Cynthia Nixon race. Right. I remember going to like Flushing Chinatown and like everywhere you look there's like Cuomo literature and Cuomo banners. Right. No sign of Nixon. Right. The issue is the turnout will probably be fairly high. And so like in the primary, quote Mall basically got the number of votes that you would expect, but someone expanded the electorate, which is a low bar because people usually don't turn out pretty. People are interested in national politics. People are Transplants, whatever else.

[B]

Right.

[C]

But, like, nationalized race, too. I mean, it's a nationalized race.

[D]

It's a nationalized race. And, like, the fact that you're trying to call the Super Avengers together and, like, team up against Sauron kind of, like, plays into his message a little bit. Right? So, look, I think when you do election forecasting, you learn that you have to, like, not just trust the narrative, and you have to say, okay, crazy things happen in politics. The polls aren't that good in mayoral races. There's still five and a half weeks to go. If Sliwa drops out, then it does get quite close. Right. Which is why I might say 10%, not 2% or 5%, but, like, the path is not obvious, barring some October surprise.

[B]

So I often say, like, on the podcast, when I, like, don't have anything to say when we're wrapping up a segment, you're like, oh, okay, we'll, like, talk about it at some future date. And then, like, oftentimes we never get back to it. So this is actually an instance where we are going to talk about this at a future date, and we're actually going to do it literally right here, the day before Election Day. You heard that, right. We're doing another live show on November 3rd at the Comedy Cellar in New York City.

[C]

This is our Vegas residency.

[D]

It's a little bit of. It's a little bit of an Oprah inflection there, Galen. I like it. You're becoming a performer.

[B]

You get a live show. You get a live show. You get a live show. No, only New York gets live shows. We keep hearing from, like, Washington, D.C. which, like, legit, but then, like, Pittsburgh, and it's like, Pittsburgh. We're not.

[D]

Come on.

[B]

Pittsburgh. Okay. Oh, my gosh.

[C]

Pittsburgh. Beautiful city.

[D]

I do Pittsburgh.

[B]

I love Pittsburgh. Love Pittsburgh. I just. I mean, if you guys are down to take a road trip with Pittsburgh.

[C]

100%.

[B]

Never mind. We're coming to Pittsburgh. You heard it here first. Okay, Aaron, get in here. I'm a little bit worried because some of these are not funny at all. Vaccines. Vaccines. Okay, pro. Pro. Claire, you go. Hate them, actually, but. Tylenol. Love Tylenol. Okay, Claire, I'm gonna throw this one to you. Do you want me?

[A]

All right, that's the end of today's preview. Like I said, you can head over to GDPolitics.com to become a paid subscriber and. And claim that 20% off discount. The show was a blast. Some people are even saying this was the best live show Nate, Claire and I have ever done, and we go back almost a decade, so you don't want to miss this one. Head to gdpolitics.com see you there.