GD POLITICS Podcast Summary: "Nate Silver On LA Protests, NYC's Mayoral Race, And Elon Musk"

Release Date: June 12, 2025
Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Nate Silver

In this engaging episode of the GD POLITICS podcast, host Galen Druke converses with renowned political analyst Nate Silver. The discussion delves into the tumultuous political landscape of the time, covering the recent immigration raids in Los Angeles, the dynamics of New York City's mayoral primary, and speculations surrounding Elon Musk's potential third-party ambitions. The conversation is marked by Silver's analytical insights, punctuated with notable quotes that provide depth to the topics discussed.

Introduction and Casual Banter [00:00 - 03:00]

Galen Druke opens the podcast by mentioning that this episode is an audio recording from a Substack live session he hosted with Nate Silver. He briefly outlines the key topics, including immigration raids in Los Angeles, protests, Donald Trump's political maneuvers, the NYC mayoral race, and Elon Musk's political aspirations. The initial few minutes are lighthearted, with Druke and Silver exchanging remarks about Silver's participation in the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas.

Notable Quote:

"I'm gonna actually kind of take this, bring more presence to the poker table."
— Nate Silver [02:28]

Trump's Approval Ratings and Economic Perceptions [03:00 - 08:00]

The conversation transitions to a serious analysis of Donald Trump's fluctuating approval ratings. Silver attributes the changes primarily to economic factors, particularly public perceptions of tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and the broader economy. He critiques the media's focus, suggesting that critical issues like the LA immigration raids and protests aren't resonating deeply with the average voter compared to economic concerns.

Notable Quotes:

"The basic trajectory of Trump's approval rating is that it's all about the economy and people's... correct perceptions that tariffs could cause inflation and other harm to the economy."
— Nate Silver [03:58]

"I do think people are mostly looking at noise... People need time to determine what's important."
— Nate Silver [05:47]

Silver also discusses discrepancies in survey results from reputable sources like The New York Times, Silver Bulletin, and Real Clear Politics, emphasizing the importance of high-quality data in accurately assessing Trump's popularity trends.

Immigration Raids and Public Perception [08:00 - 16:00]

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the recent immigration raids in Los Angeles and the ensuing protests. Silver labels the administration's response as "escalatory" and "disproportionate," highlighting concerns about the deployment of U.S. troops and Marines. He contends that while these actions are serious, the general American public may not be fully attuned to the nuances, instead viewing such events as part of a larger, often overstated, narrative of crisis perpetuated by the media.

Notable Quotes:

"Things are always framed as a moment of crisis. And then what happens is that Taco Trump actually often does back down or chicken out."
— Nate Silver [10:52]

"It's hard to distinguish single signal from noise."
— Nate Silver [18:16]

Silver further explores the Democrats' challenges in the immigration debate, citing a loss of trust due to perceived inaction during Biden's administration. He points out that despite immigration remaining a top concern for Americans, partisan biases and past policy decisions have eroded Democrats' credibility on the issue.

"Democrats start from a real significant deficit of trust amongst the American public because of what Biden's four years look like on the issue of immigration."
— Nate Silver [13:33]

New York City's Mayoral Race and Democratic Challenges [16:00 - 19:59]

Towards the end of the transcript, the conversation shifts to New York City's mayoral primary. While details in this segment are limited, Druke references a previous discussion where a draft primary favored candidates like AOC and Gavin Newsom. The recent events, including Gavin Newsom's statements about authoritarianism, prompt Silver to consider whether these developments alter the political landscape or influence Newsom's prospects.

However, the transcript concludes abruptly without a comprehensive analysis of the mayoral race or Elon Musk's political strategies, suggesting that these topics may be addressed in subsequent segments not included here.

Conclusion

This episode of GD POLITICS provides a nuanced examination of the intersection between national politics and local issues. Nate Silver offers a data-driven perspective on Trump's approval ratings, the complexities of immigration policy, and the challenges facing Democrats in regaining public trust. While the discussion begins with lighter topics like poker, it swiftly navigates to the heart of pressing political debates, making it a valuable listen for those seeking to understand the current political climate.

Final Notable Quote:

"People are in their lives and their bubbles and they're exhausted by news media or by partisans who constantly say, this is the crisis moment."
— Nate Silver [11:08]

For a deeper dive into these discussions and more, listeners are encouraged to visit GD Politics for the full audio and video recordings.