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A
Isn't it fun to get two people on a podcast together who know too much about New York?
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B
You can never have two people on a podcast who know too much about New York.
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A
Hello and welcome to the GD Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Grube. In case you aren't already tired of hearing about New York because of our championship winning basketball team or our FIFA finals hosting duty, which is actually taking place in New Jersey, our guest today has a bold New York based claim. According to Politics writer Michael Lang, New York City's primaries on Tuesday will serve as a dress rehearsal for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. Part of the claim is not so bold. The different factions of the Democratic Party are clearly going head to head. It's the establishment versus the upstarts, the machine politicians versus the activists, Democrats, different ethnic coalitions, different sides of the Israel Palestine debate and the AI debate. There's even a race featuring a progressive versus a socialist. But perhaps it's that last feature that makes it such a bold claim. New York is far more blue than the nation and underrepresents some key demographics even in a Democratic primary, like, well, categorically suburban voters, but also white voters, homeowners and old people. Nonetheless, New York contains plenty and for our purposes, plenty of political discord. So today we're gonna get into it. Michael writes out the substack, the narrative wars, and has worked on behalf of progressive politicians and he joins me now. Michael, welcome back to the podcast.
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B
Pleasure to be back. Third time's the charm.
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A
Third time is the charm. Let's do this. So I wanna give you the opportunity to make your case in broad terms before we get into the nitty gritty.
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B
My theory of the case here is like, obviously New York City is not a one to one comparison to the rest of the country. But as we've seen with Mamdani last year and his effect, I would say broadly on the Democratic Party this year. I mean, think about it, right? You have Abigail Spanberger, you know, an ex CIA operative moderate, leading off the State of the Union, talking about affordability. You've seen in very key Senate races, Graham Platner, Abdul El Sayed, ascend that New York City, what happens here does have ramifications across the country. So I was approaching these congressional primaries as interesting kind of case studies that I believe will have national implications, just kind of going through it one BY1. The 7th District, which is in Brooklyn and Queens, is the youngest in the country, probably the most left leaning. You actually have a socialist candidate versus a more progressive candidate because of how young it was. This is an area that I've coined as kind of the commie corridor. It's a fascinating case study into kind of youth voting patterns, younger voters, their turnout, their engagement, things like that. So I kind of posited this district is now without someone like Mamdani on the ballot. How many of those younger voters who so eagerly came to vote last year will come to vote this year? Then to look at two districts in Manhattan and Brooklyn, the 10th district and the 12th district. These are two. Other than some congressional districts in Florida, these two districts have among the highest Jewish populations in the country. And yet in the 10th district, you have a candidate who has been supported by aipac and incumbent Dan Goldman, who is on pace to lose by, I would say, a relatively large margin because of his support for AIPAC. And again in the 12th district, which is a little more center left, a little more liberal, technocratic, you have that every candidate from the very beginning swear off getting support from aipac. And AIPAC has kind of become this real albatross in Democratic Party primaries and things of that sort. And then specifically with the 12th district, we've kind of seen AI PACs fill that vacuum as that boogeyman. And that's allowed someone like Alex Boris, who has taken up some of the prominent AI regulation in New York State, to kind of scandalize the spending against him and in turn raise his profile and turn a race that might not have been that competitive originally into one that, you know, he's at least kind of in the mix to win against a candidate, another candidate, Michael Asher, who is endorsed by the current congressmember, Jerry Nadler, and has more structural and institutional advantages. And then lastly, upper Manhattan is a race between, again, a socialist insurgent and a long time, I would say, ethnic machine politician, where kind of the swing constituency in this district will be black voters. And we'll get into it later. But this again speaks to the question is whether, like insurgent leftism, progressivism can win over black voters, especially in a place like Harlem, which has been the longstanding African American political capital in the country. So just. Just to kind of give a preview, I think tomorrow we'll begin to answer many questions in terms of things that we're going to be looking at for the next two years.
- [05:13]
A
Yeah, I want to dig into the details of all of that, but just to maybe set the stakes a little bit at the top. There's stakes for these different pieces of the Democratic coalition. There are also stakes for one man in particular. The man that you happen to be writing a book about at the moment. Mayor of New York City, Zoran Mandani. He has been, remained a lot more active in electoral politics than you might expect from somebody who's got sort of a big day job, you know, running the city of New York. And in so doing might be able to boost his own power by in, in a Trumpian way almost of like I get to pick who wins Democratic primaries on my turf. But also if he loses, maybe weakens him in the eyes of. I mean, I think there are a lot of people who are still quite skeptical of his role as mayor. So what are. I mean, I guess I've defined the stakes a little bit there, but how has Zoran Ramdani made himself a feature of New York's primaries?
- [06:15]
B
Right. I mean, people ask me all the time, they're like, so what's like the overarching theme to these primaries? And you hit it kind of nail on the head. It's kind of like Jaran Mamdani's midterm. He's not on the ballot, but his movement is. And what's going to happen to these candidates that he just, just to list them. Claire Valdez in New York, 7. Brad Lander in New York 10. Darieliza Avila Chevalier in New York 13. That he has put a lot of political capital into supporting. What does it look like in two
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A
of those cases, supporting Charles. Challengers versus incumbents.
- [06:47]
B
Yes, exactly right. Taking on something that he was not willing to do in the New York State legislature, but something he's willing to do with congressional incumbents. I mean, again, there's no doubt that Sir, I'm Donny last year ran an excellent campaign that quite literally changed the electorate, changed who showed up to vote, massive influx of younger voters. But what does it look like when he's kind of, he can bless these candidates, but he can't transfer that same movement, that same energy, that same support. So how much can he help them and can they stand on their own two feet without him? And it also very much is tied into, in the case of Valdez and Darieliza, tied into his self proclaimed political home of New York City, dsa. They're also supporting these two candidates. And I think the mayor has the sense that the macro political conditions in terms of Trump being in office, broad dissatisfaction with the Democratic establishment and Zuran's own power has kind of produced a very unique set of circumstances that lend itself to political insurgency. And he's basically trying to remake New York City's congressional Delegation as we speak. But it's a very high risk, high reward scenario.
- [08:07]
A
Well, we will get that answer for the mayor either Tuesday night or maybe a little later in the week, depending on how quickly the New York Board of Elections counts those votes. I was actually, I was going to start in Manhattan, but because of the preview you've given so far and sort of in particular, us talking about what's at stake for Zora Momdani, I actually want to start In New York's 7th Congress congressional district, which you described as the youngest congressional district in the country. And this is maybe sort of the first place where I'm like, hmm, is that therefore, you know, representative of anything we're going to see in the 2028 Democratic primary? I mean, I'm sure you probably know this intuitively, but just to put some numbers behind it, I think the median age of a primary voter in America is 65 years old. It's up there. So young people don't tend to make a big impact in, in primaries, period. More so in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary. But still, we're talking about older voters here. Zoran Ramdani was able to change that. We saw it defined in sort of the maps that you so diligently made and the charts that you so diligently made throughout that campaign. And, but it is a, it is a real question. We'll see if, say, a 2028 Democratic primary candidate could, could really boost the youth turnout in a pri. I mean, and just to emphasize how big of a challenge it is, Bernie Sanders wasn't really able to do it in his primary campaigns, otherwise he would have won. You know, he might be, he, there might have been a President Bernie Sanders if that median age for primary voters was lower. So I'm curious nonetheless, what you see as the lesson of this district and for folks who the majority of listeners are not in the New York or tri state area, if we can sort of define who the candidates are, what they represent as well.
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B
Yeah. So let me start with the candidates, and thank you for reminding me to define what this is. On one side, there's Claire Valdez. She's been, she was elected to the New York State legislature two years ago. She's in.
- [10:14]
A
Wait, let me just say really quick, this is a vacancy. So Nydia Velasquez, the first Puerto Rican representative in Congress, is retiring after three decades. Not everyone got the message, but a number of people got the message. And she got the message that it's time for generational turnover. She's in her 70s, she's leaving. And this has created a vacuum in one of the bluest and youngest districts in the country.
- [10:38]
B
Yes. Okay, so in light of you talking about Congresswoman Velasquez, I'm going to start with actually Antonio Reynoso. Antonio Reynoso is, he's 42 years old. He's the Brooklyn Borough President. He's been a long, has long been supported by the Working Families Party. He's one of the Nydia Velasquez's proteges. He was born on the south side of Williamsburg, which again for your listeners, historically a very Puerto Rican area. I mean, he's the son of Dominican immigrants. But this district was once kind of the heart of Hispanic political power in New York. And it's kind of in the 21st century. There's been a lot of gentrification things of that sort. But Antonio Reynoso is, is a progressive. He helped co found the New York City Council Progressive Caucus. He passed a lot of legislation having to do with that. He was a relatively early supporter of Ziran Mamdani, like, you know, genuine bona fides. He's also supported by a lot of labor organizations and again, kind of that progressive nonprofit local sphere that is like decently big in New York, particularly in working class neighborhoods like this. And so, so once upon a time
- [11:45]
A
you would think shoo in for this
- [11:48]
B
spot, not even once upon a time, like two or four years ago would have been a shoo in. Had the congresswoman retired at a different point, he would have glided into this se. In my opinion, that has changed because, and now there's, you know, there's a lot of recriminations going on about how Ninia Velasquez and Zuram Abdani didn't see eye to eye and picking a candidate. And there was attempts at compromise and it didn't really happen. So on one side you have Velasquez supporting Antonio Reynoso to succeed her. And then on the other side you have Claire Valdez, who as I mentioned, was elected to the state assembly two years ago. She's 37 years old, a native of Texas, has lived in Ridgewood for 10 years, endorsed by New York City DSA, endorsed by the United Auto Workers and Zoran. Right, exactly. And Bernie Sanders as well. She is, you know, I think she has a lot of national support behind her and obviously dsa, with their volunteer army and their, their door knocking and everything that comes with it is kind of their local engine. But it's a fascinating Socialists versus Progressives and again, a district that has been historically Hispanic, but has gentrified a decent amount. Last year, almost 75% of the electorate was under 50 in this district. You know, and they gave resounding margins to Zuramdani. Of course, you also, you do have a high number of Hasidic Jews in the southern part of Williamsburg. They will be supporting Reynoso. You also, of course, have middle and working class Hispanic homeowners and renters farther east into Brooklyn. But I mean, is your readers or your listeners might know Long Island City, Greenpoint, Williamsburg, have changed dramatically in the last 20 years. And this district was kind of the heart of not just Mamdani support, but DSA support.
- [13:33]
A
Okay, so a socialist versus a progressive. You know, that's like a race on the Republican side where you look at the two candidates and you're like, they're are, they're, they're arguing with each other, trying to get Trump's endorsement, moving further and further to the populist. Right. And sometimes you can look at races like that and be like, okay, I don't see exactly what the difference is. Like, maybe it's personalities. Maybe it's whoever managed to ingratiate themselves to the power broker to a greater extent. Like, are there clear policy differences in a socialist versus progressive primary?
- [14:10]
B
That's actually kind of the. Been the great challenge for both campaigns is kind of drawing distinctions towards one another. I'll get into that in a second. In many ways though, this is kind of like the outgrowth of the Sanders Warren split in 2020. It's very. In some way with. Yes, great question. Sanders as kind of Claire, DSA Warren as a little more Reynoso Working Families Party. But it's not like a clean split either because Valdez's coalition is very indexed towards age. She will do much better with younger voters. And Reynosa will do.
- [14:45]
A
I was gonna say, you know who those Elizabeth Warren voters were? Those are like New York's 12th district, the people who are New York 10 fighting. Yes.
- [14:53]
B
Yeah, yeah, a little bit. But, but I mean, the kind of the institutions behind them, it does have shades of that. So for each of these candidates, because they agree on a wide variety of issues, most issues, I mean, again, if you listen to one of these New York 7 debates, it's terribly boring because they agree for basically 55 of the 60 minutes, the 2.
- [15:16]
A
And what kinds of things? Just to like, explain the kinds of proposals that the most left flank of the Democratic Party has right now. Like, what are they running on?
- [15:27]
B
Well, I think what was. I Mean, again, it's like abolishing ice, Medicare for all, taxing the rich, you know, and the genocide. Like these are all things that both the candidates said on day one. They were all, there's a third candidate who's a city council member from Long Island City. She's kind of running a distant third. But when they were all asked in the debate stage, who are you supporting in 2028, they all immediately said AOC. It's just kind of one of those places. But so, but for the two leading candidates, drawing distinctions between one another has kind of been difficult for either. And in some degrees this race has kind of devolved into like a political power proxy battle and also like fought along cultural lines. Right, like native New Yorkers versus non native New Yorkers, you know, like, like the college educated voters versus working, you know, working class, non college educated voters. There has been some of that recently though. They've kind of been fighting about the presence of super PACs in this race. So again, this is getting into the weeds a tiny bit. So forgive me, but Claire Valdez is one of the candidates who's supported by the American Priority super pac, which is the pack it was, it's kind of, it's basically the counterweight to apac. And she had a red box on her website for your listeners. A red box is, you know, like kind of a hidden link on your page that gives instructions to super PACs on how to message, where to target, things like that. After Clara Valdez put up her red box, Antonio Reynoso put up, put up his red box. But Claire Valdez was the first candidate to get super packed support and then Reynoso attacked her for it, for like putting dark money into the race, things like that. Valdez is countered that Reynoso did not say the words genocide with respect to Israel's actions in Gaza until he launched this campaign. Whereas she like Almost immediately after October 7th was in the streets talking about it, things of that sort. They're basically fighting, it's kind of, they're fighting about PACs and about Palestine. And in recent days, recent weeks, the race has become increasingly bitter, I think on both sides because both camps kind of recognize that yes, this is a fight for one, just one seat in the New York delegation, but it's like a larger proxy battle for like who really leads the left in New York City.
- [17:48]
A
Yeah. And I guess to that end, I'm curious how you see this reflecting or foreshadowing. Like, I, I think there are different pieces of each of the races that we'll talk about that. Foreshadow Something about 2028. I'm curious explicitly sort of what that piece is here because I have to think if the Democratic primary in 2028 is about PAX and Palestine, Democrats either aren't winning in 2028 or, or, you know, if they do, it's something of like a pyric victory where the Republicans are so bad that they get into power, but then it's like a Joe Biden 2.0 and the thing sort of goes up in flames and sort of paves the path for another Trump aligned politician to come back into power. Like, I imagine that doesn't mean there won't be fights about PAX and Palestine, but I imagine that if the main fights are about Pax and Palestine instead of like, like it seemed like to some extent Democrats learned the lesson of okay, maybe we can't talk so much about defund the police without talking about quality of life issues, getting children to school, that sort of thing. And I think Zoran's campaign was a little bit. We saw a correction there from one of the most left wing politicians in the country. Are you seeing any of that in this race? Like, I guess flesh this out for me.
- [19:10]
B
Yeah, I mean I do think in 2028, like PAC support, relation to Super PACS and Israel, Palestine, I do think it'll matter in the primary. I do think though the most nationally analogous take for New York 7 is just what does young voter turnout look like without a mumdani or an AOC like figure leading that movement? What is that participation? What do those margins look like? And I think that remains to be seen. Um, so far there's been a couple days of early voting. This district has been the sleepiest of all the congressional primaries in New York City. Young voters, maybe it's the Knicks, maybe it's something else, but they're not really. They have not honed in on this race like they honed in.
- [19:51]
A
Maybe it's just old as time.
- [19:53]
B
Well, that again, that is the tale as old as time. But last year this district was out front voting very early and in huge margins for Ziran Mamdani. So yes, maybe there will be more late deciders, but I do think that there's been some noticeable degree of engagement drop off. But to your point about affordability versus PACs versus Palestine, I do largely agree that I think this. And we can talk with, we can talk about New York 13 as well. I have seen in New York 7 and in New York 13 with the DSA backed candidates, they haven't been as laser focused on affordability, rent and costs. And there has been, especially as these races have gotten very bitter and contentious towards the end, a lot of defaulting towards this person supported by pro Israel donors, things like that, like, like litigating that. And I'm not saying that that's not a winning issue for the left in Democratic primaries, but I think it does have to be really paired with the cost of living message because again, in terms of most renters of any congressional districts in the country, New York 13 is number one, New York seven is number two. So there has to be a cost of living affordability message paired with the other stuff. And I think that has gotten muddled as these races have finished.
- [21:16]
A
So I, you seem to tend to agree that like if this race is foreshadowing the Democratic 2028 primary, Democrats are probably not speaking to Americans top concerns.
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B
I think it remains to be seen. But you have, there always has to be a large bread and butter issues component to any campaign in the primary
- [21:38]
A
or in a general, as a, as a polling person. Tm as much acrimony as there is along these lines, you still just don't see Israel, Palestine, Super PACs, I mean maybe to some extent corruption, but like you just really don't see those features of American life hitting the top of concerns for Americans. And I know that primary voters are much more partisan, pay much more attention to politics than your even just registered voter. But that is, that is something to sort of watch here as 2028 begins to take shape. Where is the emphasis? So let's talk about. Well actually let me ask, who's going to win? The socialists or the progressives?
- [22:24]
B
It's a coin flip. It's a coin flip. By the time this airs, I might have released a prediction, but I don't quite know.
- [22:32]
A
Okay, well, maybe you'll have to come back after it happens. Yeah, we can talk about it.
- [22:36]
B
Well, I mean if all my predictions are wrong, you might not want to have me, but if they're right, you might, you might run back.
- [22:42]
A
Since we're already in this headspace of like the left versus the further left. Let's move on to New York's 13th congressional district where Democrats have an incumbent who is not retiring, that is Adriano Espion. He, you know, for your median American voter, maybe it's hard to imagine somebody sort of more left wing than him given our current political dynamics. He is an immigrant who was formerly in the country illegally. In fact the first person to be elected to Congress with that status. But he is being challenged from the left by Darielisa Avila Chevalier. What are they fighting about?
- [23:24]
B
It's a lot about apac.
- [23:27]
A
It's a lot about apac.
- [23:28]
B
Again, no, no, no. I mean, but even more so than more about APAC. So in New York 7, it's like,
- [23:33]
A
oh, like, oh, they already agree on APAC, but they've moved on to other issues.
- [23:37]
B
Yeah, they totally agree on apac. And recently there have been charges levied against Reynoso, who's the progressive, like, oh, some of these pro Israel donors want to donate to you. But then he's like, I've never taken APAC money. And he, like, immediately returns it. So it's like a different thing. Whereas Espiet, his, like, top donor for the last couple cycles has been aipac. So it's like. And he, like, doesn't run away from it. He doesn't call it a genocide. So it's way different. And also Aspirat is. He is a classic urban machine politician. Upper Manhattan, which is the district that he kind of represents, and there's a couple neighborhoods in the Bronx, was for a long time demographically relatively split between African American voters in, in Harlem, which is again the historic capital of black America, and then Dominican immigrants in Washington Heights and Wood and parts of the Bronx. And Espay, it came up. He kind of led the Dominican empowerment. You know, Dominican immigrants have been coming to New York City since the Hart Quaylor act in 1965. And there was also civil war in the Dominican Republic. He was really the Dominican trailblazer. And maybe your listeners will recall the name Charlie Rangel. Charlie Rangel held the Harlem seat for a long time, and Sbiat ran against him twice at the very end of his career, narrowly lost, then beat Charlie Rangel's successor to kind of wrestle. Again, I say this in quotes. The black district away from this African American constituency. Fast forward 10 years, and now that congressional district, the, the lines have literally changed, but also the, the demographics have changed as well. It now goes a little farther south. So the electorate in a Democratic primary is basically 1/3 white, 1/3 Hispanic, and 1/3 black. And you have an incumbent who for a very long time, his entire political project was geared around how am I empowering and activating Hispanic, namely Dominican voters. But now that electorate has shrunk to a third of the primary, that, that will be a referendum on him staying in office. And he kind of has found himself in a. In a complete fight for his life against again, like a 32 year old Columbia graduate kind of student organizer who again is hitting him really hard on APAC and also ICE because sbites voted for some of you know, these big funding bills that, that raise or that appropriate money for dhs and you know, some contractors and such have donated him things of that sort. And he finds himself totally on the ropes and it's a fascinating scenario.
- [26:17]
A
I'm going to ask the same question here. What features of this race foreshadow 2028 and like I got you, I guess maybe one of them is sort of ethnic coalitions, which I don't want to steal your thunder here but like I, I will say that when you look at the Democratic primary electorate in a presidential primary, the electorate is about 60% white, it's about 20% black, it's about 10% Latino and 10% everybody else. So you know, Asian, other, native, et cetera. How does this fit into that?
- [26:55]
B
It fits into it because the swing constituency in this congressional district will be black voters in Harlem, which is, I would say like the age distribution of that. They're relatively even, age wise. Like there's young black voters, middle aged and of course older black voters, seniors, things like that, whereas a lot of the other black neighborhoods in the city are older. It's set up decently well for the progressive, avowedly leftist candidate to make real inroads with black voters, particularly younger black voters, but especially older ones because again, espailant has his critics with charge built his political career off at the expense of black voters in upper Manhattan. So he's someone who does not have Again, for a 10 year Democratic incumbent Congress person, he's like in all the polls that get leaked, he's leading by less than 10among black voters, you know, not, not exactly the spot that he would want to be in. So this race is kind of teed up for again the left broadly to prove not just to the voters of this district but to a wider audience that their message can resonate with middle and working class black voters. Now this is not to say that the black voters of Harlem are the same as the ones of South Carolina, but it's still just one data point of many. Whereas if they fall short here, you know, it's it, it, I don't think it looks great. And it's also probably another lesson of when given a choice between an incumbent that they don't really like in an insurgent, they don't know black voters will still prefer the incumbent. But we'll see what happens.
- [28:36]
A
That's How I'd frame it, they're ultimately both Dominican. But it sounds like you're suggesting here that we're going to watch what happens when different ethnic pieces of the Democratic coalition sort of fight it out in a primary. Do you see that reflected in national primary politics where, like, there's a lot of situations where Latino or Hispanic voters are sort of like disagreeing with black voters and that becomes a feature of who wins Democratic primaries? Or is that just something that's very unique to New York?
- [29:11]
B
It's a more urban feature. I mean, we've seen this also in Chicago and in Los Angeles, I believe, to varying extents. I mean, yes, they're both Dominican American, but I think that just foregrounds that. And obviously, like we're probably not having a presidential primary where contenders wanted to are both Dominican American. But that for grounds though, that this is just a, it's a just a generational battle kind of dressed up in this machine insurgent, ethnic political battle. Right. And I think that that's really, this is another test of younger voters, voters under 45, voters under 50, asserting their political power in a Democratic primary. And also, again, this district has more renters than anywhere in the country. It's a very working class district. So it's, again, it's not just your young, white, college educated voters and it's Hispanic and black voters, younger of the two, asserting their political power as well. And whether, I mean, honestly, Darieliza, whether she wins or she loses will come down to how many younger black and Hispanic voters turn out to vote for her.
- [30:17]
A
But it's interesting because it's almost a sort of credibility thing for the left. It's like if the people who you argue your movement would help the most are not voting for you, what's going on, like if you're most popular amongst college educated young white voters and the pieces of this district are not voting for you. I think it does pose some difficult challenges, some difficult questions for the movement.
- [30:43]
B
I mean, in a narrative war, it certainly, it certainly does. Yeah. If you, if you claim to speak on, on behalf or for voters who do not actually support you, that, that's tough. And again, one of, if not the biggest reason that Sarah Madani beat Andrew Cuomo is that he made pronounced inroads with, with black and Hispanic voters, particularly younger, like under, you know, under 50.
- [31:08]
A
Do you have a prediction in this race?
- [31:11]
B
I think by the time this airs, I'll have said that Darieliza will win, but it will be very, it will be very narrow. They both, I think have a discernible base, but I do think she has a degree of an enthusiasm gap behind her, but I think it'll be very much balanced on a knife's edge. The one reason I, or the biggest reason that I think she could lose is just there's been a tremendous amount of outside spending. I believe over 4 million. And I'm sure there'll be even more through all these shell packs and things like that in the closing days. I mean, again, anytime you put seven figures behind negative advertising, particularly for a candidate who, you know, in the minds of voters, especially older voters, is a relatively blank slate, that can have devastating effects. So it remains to be seen, but I think she'll narrowly pull it out.
- [32:04]
A
And again, Zoran Mamdani, he was not expected to endorse a challenger in this race. He was expected to endorse Adriano Espailant, but he ultimately endorsed Darielisa.
- [32:15]
B
Yeah, I mean, there's been some reporting that he may or may not have promised Adriana Espay that he would endorse him or not, or at least not endorse his challenger. And then as time went on, you know, he had to make a decision and then he chose to back Darieliza, who again, is also supported by New York City dsa.
- [32:34]
A
GD Politics is powered by you, the listeners. If you enjoy the show, the data driven analysis, the genuine curiosity and lack of partisan bs, and yes, sometimes the silliness too, please consider becoming a paid subscriber at gdpolitics. Com. Paid subscribers help make the podcast possible, and they also get twice the number of episodes and access to the paid subscriber chat where you can send me whatever questions you've got. Independent political media only works if the people who value it support it. So if GD Politics is part of your week, head to GDPolitics.com and become a paid subscriber. That's GDPolitics.com I so appreciate it. Thank you. All right, well, we have been very generous to the outer boroughs in starting there. Let's, let's make our way to the drama that is New York's 12th congressional district, which features a John F. Kennedy grandchild. It features, you know, an AI battle. It features George Conway. I don't know how you categorize him, but like former Republican, never Trumper, who lives on the Internet, previously married to Kellyanne Conway, Trump's campaign manager in 2016. And it also features, what is it? Is it, does it have the highest educational attainment level of any congressional district in the country?
- [33:58]
B
I Believe so. And depending on which sources you look at, it's also the wealthiest.
- [34:05]
A
Flesh this out for us. What do we got going on there? Well, and I should say just to. Just to set the scene, as I have Jerry Nadler, similar to. Similarly to Nydia Velasquez, took a hint he retired and has set the stage for this, you know, generational turnover, potentially.
- [34:24]
B
Yeah. I think, again, especially in the district like this, which is the Upper east side, the Upper west side, Midtown and everything north of 14th street, because it's such a cultural capital, such a media capital. Right. Everyone wants to run with all these different angles. You know, again, you have JFK's grandson here. You have George Conway, who was really like a Resistance 1.0, never Trumper star. You have these AI oligarchs spending for and against Alex Boris. But sometimes, like, there's all. There are all these things that happen, and it kind of muddies our focus from, like, what really will decide this campaign. And at the very beginning of it, it was, you have one state legislator, Michael Asher, endorsed by Jerry Nadler, who represents parts of the west side. And then you have one state legislator, Alex Boris, who again, has the AI money for and against him representing the east side. And for as much money and influence and prestige as in this district, the political institutions in it still live, and they are often geographically, to some degree, homogenous. The west side and the east side, with when Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney, maybe your listeners will remember, four years ago, there was. Nadler was the west side Congressman. Maloney was the east side Congressman. There was that special master that changed New York City's map or New York State's maps on a whim, and they were suddenly drawn into the district that we now know as New York 12. And Nadler, I mean, cleaned Maloney's clock. He kind of crushed her. That was due to many factors. But an important thing to foreground is that the west side, they have more Democrats, they turn out at higher rates, and their political institutions are more cohesive and the voters are as well. And so there's more.
- [36:17]
A
Historically, there have been more Republicans on the east side.
- [36:21]
B
Yes. Particularly in that park to Fifth Avenue corridor from 59th street to 96, which again, is like, those are basically the wealthiest blocks in America. It was. It was the ancestral home of, like, the silk stocking wasp Republicanism, you know, like your Rockefellers, things of that. I call it Oligarch Alley. Can't take credit for that. That was my father's idea, certainly. So in races that have this geographical orientation. The west side candidates have always edged the east side candidates. And so a lot has happened since this race began, but that fact is still not changed. I look at the early voting data every day. That fact has still not changed. The west side is clearly outperforming the east side. So for someone like Alex Boris, he was kind of coming into this race with a structural disadvantage being the candidate kind of coming from the area that was less cohesive and had fewer votes. So his best chance to win was to really nationalize this race and make it about not just the AI oligarchs, but the fact that, again, this district has a lot of affluent baby boomers, things like that. Like, if there's anyone who's insulated from AI, it's probably these people. So it's AI oligarchs funded by Trump megadonors. Right. And it was a very shrewd campaign tactic, and I think it did really work to a certain extent, and it is, by all accounts, a very close race.
- [37:50]
A
And just to be clear, what is his position on AI that has gotten all of this? Like, from what I understand, the folks spending against him are largely Team OpenAI, and the folks spending for him are largely Team Anthropic. He introduced legislation as a state legislator to regulate artificial intelligence. Like, what exactly is his, because he used to work for Palantir, is from what I also understand. And so it's not like he hates technology or AI or whatever. He just has a particular view about it.
- [38:24]
B
Yeah, I mean, from what I understand, it was relatively modest regulation, but it was, like, the only regulation of its kind passed in any state in the country. So, again, to some of these AI giants who want no guardrails, no nothing, people like him, they just kind of want to make an example out of him, but the spending has objectively helped him because it's put him at the center of the race. And again, he's been able to polarize voters against the spending to a remarkable degree, you know, because it's kind of given him something that the other candidates have. And, like, look at all this Trump donor money trying to keep me away from Congress. And I think even if you don't understand AI, that is, like, a pretty salient message. And so, again, I not only expect him to do well kind of in his home base of the east side, but I think that's at least a way to break into other parts of the district that he doesn't have as strict a geographic relationship to.
- [39:28]
A
And a prime example of that would be he, as a result of this AI Civil war, appeared on the Ezra Klein podcast. And you better believe Upper West Siders are listening to that podcast.
- [39:39]
B
Yeah, I mean, I, I Jo, but I'm totally serious when I say it that that podcast is worth at least 2, 3, 4, 5 points in a district like this. I mean, I, again, every New York 12 voter who I know has, has listened to that podcast. But I think to not get too ahead of.
- [39:55]
A
But does that say more about you or the district? And then do either of those things say anything about the Democratic primary in 2028?
- [40:03]
B
I think it actually says more about the district than it does about me. I got to be honest. Like, I kind of, you know, for all of this insider baseball stuff, I still pride myself on relationship, you know, like it is, it is very much that kind of district. Like, civic engagement is like a rite of passage here. Especially, again, you know, they're, they're also retirees who have more time, people have made their money, think things of that sort. What does it say about the democratic primary in 2028? It says that AI spending is going to be a huge, a huge issue. Who's being supported by what PACs, but. But most importantly, their stances with respect to regulating it. I think younger voters particularly are like, hungry for not only just aggressive regulation, but, but for these candidates to have like, real discernible positions on AI and projecting a sense that they understand it. Because I only think AI's salience is going to rise in the next two years. And I think, again, like, actually I, I can say this is. I've seen like, private polling where like OpenAI is like minus 30among Democratic voters in this district, but Claude by anthropic is like +25. So it like to again, the most civically engaged voters. It also matters like, which AI company it is and things like that. I also think normies like Claude, because, like, I'm going to be honest, I think it's probably the object, objectively the most useful one of all the AI tools, things like that. But I do think that these AI packs, I mean, I think they're going to be spending quite aggressively in 2028. And I just, I think this is not, this is certainly not going away. And Alex Boris is kind of at the forefront of it. I mean, they've even, I think, admitted publicly to some degree that one of the reasons that they chose to spend against him was because they thought he had no chance and so they could claim credit when he lost, but they've actually been the one thing that really gave him a lifeline and gave him a chance. And again, you can polarize against this type of massive spending in such a well educated, attuned district. I mean, this is not. We're in the top. We're in the 99th percentile with some of this stuff. It's not a clean proxy, but it's
- [42:14]
A
definitely, like, voters may not be paying attention to who's behind the, like, 100, blah, blah, blah, blah. It's like a terrible candidate in other districts.
- [42:21]
B
But I do think you can, especially if you can seize on it relatively quickly. You. You can chain together a lot of earned media behind it. I mean, again, this is a more attuned district just in general. But it's no secret that this district, compared to all of the other congressional primaries, is, like, seeing the most turnout so far by. By a really legible margin. It's like the salience of this race caught on in a way that others didn't. And I think AI is a huge
- [42:53]
A
reason why I would be really proud if we made it through this podcast without mentioning Jack Schlossberg's name. But I'm gonna take the bait and not live up to my standards. That's obviously the grandson of jfk. There has been some sense that he had a chance in this race. Nancy Pelosi endorsed him. Do you see that at all in what you're looking at?
- [43:17]
B
No. I mean, people think I give him too hard of a time. I actually really try not to be. I'm sure he's like a nice guy, but I. And there was a period like in April.
- [43:29]
A
Everyone in all of the analysis, they're like a charmingly handsome, like Jack Schloss, like, you know, charming good looks enter the race. Let's just be clear here. Alex Boris is hotter. And I say this in so much, it's funny.
- [43:40]
B
A lot of people have said that. That's very funny.
- [43:41]
A
Who is not registered as a Democrat and cannot vote in this primary. And I'm. I'm not trying to express a preference for a politician. I'm just saying it's not fair that all of the analysis focuses on Jack Schlossberg's supposed good looks. And Alex Boris is just the AI can't do it.
- [43:59]
B
That's funny. So there was a period of time where Jack Schlossberg was narrowly leading some polls, but he always had like 20, 21, 22%. It never seemed terribly durable in my eyes. And also, like, again, I've had the good fortune to moderate some of These forums. And I will say I think Jack Schlossberg has gotten better. Debate wise, forum wise, things like that. But I think especially when you kind of put them up on a stage next to two super rigorous, cerebral state legislators, there's like a huge experience gap. And again, in a district like this where the voter population's a little older, they really care about, like, competency and attention to detail. A candidacy like his, I think was always kind of destined to wilt under some of that scrutiny and spotlight. Ironically, I mean, the, the bones of his candidacy where he is, like, famous enough to transcend this district of institutions. I do think it was possible, but just, it would have had to, like, if you put Mamdani in his body, he, he could do it. But Mamdani doesn't grow on trees, you know, So I, I think also another thing is that he would. Jack Schlossberg would have to really galvanize younger voters. But we saw from all the polling that most of his support was among older voters, and then that slowly started to wane. And I think one of the reasons that he isn't galvanizing younger voters is he's not really speaking to the issues that they care about so much. And I know, like, you might think, oh, they're doing too much on Israel, Palestine and New York 7, New York 13, but there are a lot of people in this district, progressive people, young and old, who care about those things. And all the candidates have tried very painfully to not really differentiate themselves on that issue. And I think, you know, that's partially a consequence of the fact that pro Israel forces in the district are, are better organized. And also I would say probably, like, because they're older and they're, they're more entrenched in the institutions there, whereas, like, the left in a district like this, it's there in the numbers, but it's not cohesive at all. So anyway, for someone like Jack Schlossberg, and also this goes for George Conway, as this race really narrows into a binary choice, which I think many people who are paying attention to it see. I just think their support will slip even more because this is first past the post. There's no ranked choice voting.
- [46:30]
A
Okay, let's wrap up the New York City primaries, and then we've got one remaining in the sort of northern suburbs, Hudson Valley area. So New York's 10th congressional district is lower Manhattan and the northern part of Brooklyn. And there we have an incumbent in Dan Goldman, who led the first impeachment against Donald Trump, and a challenger In Brad Lander, who people may know because he ran for mayor of New York City against Zoran Mandani, came in third, was popular amongst, like. How would you, how would you describe it?
- [47:05]
B
Like, no kings.
- [47:06]
A
Elizabeth Warren voters.
- [47:07]
B
No kings. Liberals. Yeah. Progressives. I mean, there are plenty of people who voted for Mamdani who also like Brad Lander, you know. Right, yeah, yeah. And Bradley has also been around for a long time and I think, and I think in his case that's a good thing and it's one of the reasons he's going to win by a lot.
- [47:23]
A
Okay, so what? Bull. I don't know if that's a bold take or not, but I, I don't. I'm not in the weeds on these races, so I can't challenge you there. What, what's is this, what is this about? You suggested early on it's just a pack. Is that truly the only thing that this is about?
- [47:38]
B
No, I mean, it's not the only thing. Look, so ironically, Dan Goldman's the incumbent congressmember, but Brad Lander is far more known in this district, again particularly in the Brooklyn side where 3/5 of the votes come from. And Brad Lander I think also better represents the ideological median of this district. I mean, it is upper middle class, very progressive, very no kings. And Brad and Dan Goldman, like, yeah, he's got some anti Trump bona fides and you know, he's done stuff at 26 Federal Plaza, things of that sort of. But I mean, he really again has drawn the ire of the progressive left. And to receive AIPAC money in a district that. And now he's off the APAC money. But he was on it for a period of years. To receive APAC money in a district this progressive was kind of always some degree of a death sentence. I think Dan Goldman ironically fits the zeitgeist of New York 12 far better than he fits the zeitgeist of New York 10. And also Brad Lander has just far more local roots than, than him. And again, Dan Goldman is, you know, I'm not trying to be super rude, but he is somewhat of a creature of D.C. and you know, from elected officials to even just everybody on the ground, particularly again on this Brooklyn side of the district, they never got the sense that he was super invested in what was going on in neighborhoods and things like that.
- [48:55]
A
Can I ask you what part of this foreshadows 2028 is it just once again, APAC and Israel, Palestine politics or the, the tox.
- [49:05]
B
The toxicity of any Connection to APAC among Normie Democrats.
- [49:09]
A
Interesting.
- [49:10]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Whereas again, and I think that this. And in the 12th district, there's no Apex spending. They all swore off of it. In the 10th district, this is like literally, I would say reason number one or two why he's going to lose. And again, this is a very Jewish district, you know, so if, like, if Apex killing you here, where is it going to help you? You?
- [49:32]
A
The thing that strikes me in talking about all of these districts in New York City is that one important piece of the Democratic primary electorate that is left out is like swingy white voters, at least in what we're talking about. I mean, there are some swingy white voters in Staten island and other parts of the outer boroughs which are unique in their own sense because maybe they're sort of like from Soviet bloc countries or whatever. Like not really representative of like your Iowa, New Hampshire primary voter. And of course, in many of these states, independents can vote in Democrat unaligned voters can vote in Democratic primaries. And I'm not seeing any, any representation for your diner voter, which has been fully lampooned over the past decade, but gets at something that is real, which is that 60% of the diner Democratic primary electorate is white. It is still quite older. And there are lots of like moderate swingy folks out there. And if not moderate in the sense that they vote like Susan Collins, moderate in the sense that they're agree their ideas don't line up from A to Z, like from Medicare for all to defund the police or ICE or whatever.
- [50:42]
B
But if we're looking at trends though, isn't the Democratic Party trending to get younger and more college educated? I'm not saying that it's like that we run Brad Lander in 2020.
- [50:52]
A
Not in the last election. In the last election it got less young. It relied more on senior voters, but
- [50:57]
B
it, but it relied more on college educated voters though. And also like, there are plenty of seniors in this district. They're just no king seniors. But I hear you, yes, this is not the primary for Staten Island. And I'm not saying run Brad Lander for president, you know, and I'm also,
- [51:12]
A
I'm also hearing like really almost no talk about the main thing that Democrats want to talk about, which is affordability, inflation, you know, the war in Iran, all that jazz. And like, yes, these are Democrats running against each other. So where do you mind the conflict? But I mean, still, in Mamdani's primary, he was able to talk about these things.
- [51:32]
B
I think some of this is also a correction because Mamdani was talking about it, very few other people were talking about it. Now everyone is kind of trying to claim that mantle. So there have to be additional distinctions.
- [51:46]
A
So maybe in order to correct this distortion, we can talk, we can wrap things up with a more competitive district. In fact, one of the most competitive districts in the country currently represented by Republican Mike Lawler. It is like top of the pack districts that Democrats need to flip if they are going to win a majority in 2026. And there is a heated Democratic primary there. And I'm talking here about New York's 17th congressional district, north of the city, Hudson Valley sort of area. What are the dynamics there?
- [52:19]
B
Yeah, so there's Kate Conlon, who is kind of like the D triple C chosen candidate. I believe she recently just moved back into the district to run. I believe she's like a special. She has ties to like special forces, things like that. Like it's very army veterans, Cyber security
- [52:38]
A
expert, 100% the hell she's one of the hellcats. You know, it's like women who've worked in national security like Abigail Spanberger and Melissa Slotkin, et cetera.
- [52:48]
B
The problem is is that at least from my vantage point, again, I'm not trying to be rude. She doesn't seem to be terribly charismatic. Her campaign has some very questionable local ties. I mean like they're like misspelling like the towns of the district, things like that. Like it's, it's one of those where it feels, I mean, and granted like Pat Ryan has endorsed her, some of these county committees have, but it feels very DCCC AstroTurf. And she's running against like Beth Davidson, who I see is her main competition. They're both like pretty center left, but Beth Davidson is like I'm a Rockland county mom in the Westchester county legislature. And I think different polling has them. I think Conlon is maybe like a little bit ahead, but there's still plenty of undecideds. And then there's a third candidate, Effie Phillips Stalley. It was a Tarrytown trustee. She's kind of like tried to run in the progressive lane, like campaigning with Hassan Piker and Jamal Bowman. But again, this is an older district and I don't know if she hasn't been able to raise money competitively or as competitive as the other candidates have. And it just, I don't really see her performing too well. I see this is like a two horse race between two center left Democrats, but one again has the more national D triple C profile, whereas the other one that's like, I'm more local. Like, I'm sure the, the DCCC would be fine if Beth Davidson won, but she wasn't like their pick. So it's like an interesting Local support versus national support proxy in New York. 17. That's how I see it. I don't know if it has grand 2028 recriminations as well.
- [54:32]
A
In some ways, I think there's a
- [54:34]
B
lot to be learned for okay yet take it away.
- [54:38]
A
Democrats love electability. They want to know that whoever they're supporting is going to be able to win a general election. That's how Joe Biden ended up the nominee in 2020 as somebody who was arguably too old to be in that spot.
- [54:54]
B
So Kate Conley for president then, Is that what you're saying?
- [54:56]
A
I mean, I mean, certainly no, but also certainly not Claire Valdez for president.
- [55:01]
B
Yeah.
- [55:01]
A
No, no, I don't think that's the argument you are making either.
- [55:03]
B
No, no, it's not.
- [55:04]
A
Which is, which is to say that many of the people voting in this county will be Democratic primary voters, but also the no kings. People care about them. They're so tuned into politics, they're like, how are these people going to vote in a presidential election? Now, granted, that has diminished a little bit since the early days of the resistance. Like it used to be, a clear majority of Democrats cared more about electability than policy preferences. But there still is a strong sense of like what they call like the Flight 93 election, where, like, if we don't win this election, like, the plane's gonna go down and we're gonna smash into the ground, everyone's gonna die. Like, I think there are a lot of Democratic voters who feel that way and as a result would be reluctant to support somebody like aoc, even if they were like, oh, I love aoc, she's great. So I think that this kind of a district still matters a lot for understanding the 2028 Democratic primary. Have I convinced you?
- [56:04]
B
A little bit. But again, the, the two top candidates, I think policy wise are relatively similar. Maybe that's a takeaway, like, oh, it's, you know, they're both center left things of that sort. But it is, I think it's more of a battle.
- [56:19]
A
Pete Buttigieg versus Jon Ossoff, you know,
- [56:22]
B
but I also think it's like more of a proxy between the local institutions in this district and again, the national party kind of imparting who they think is best, you know, who these Rockland County Dems, you know, like, who. We want to support things like that. But it is, like a good affordability district. And what's interesting is, like. And New York's suburbs. Love New York suburbs. So interesting. They're. They're very unique in their own way because Westchester is like, super high income, historically kind of Jewish. And then like Rockland County. Yeah, similar.
- [56:59]
A
Very diverse. I mean, there's like.
- [57:00]
B
Right. I mean, Westchester, they have.
- [57:02]
A
I grew up in very large settings, which is. I think it's majority minority.
- [57:06]
B
Yeah. And then New York 17, a little bit of a similar vibe. But again, there are real discernible pockets of. Of minority voters. But again, Westchester especially leans more blue, where it's like Long Island. Long island is like, those are real white flight suburbs. You know, Italian, the Italians and the Irish. They didn't quite go to Westchester. They went to Nassau and Suffolk County. So those areas are, like, much more red. But once you go to the Hudson Valley, like, I know you're like, oh, these people in 17 might not vote for AOC in 18 in Pat Ryan's district, like, I know those folks will vote for aoc. Beacon, Woodstock, Socrates, Poughkeepsie.
- [57:42]
A
Well, these are people whose primary residences are in, like, Fort Greene or like, maybe they moved it or they moved it up to Kingston or Hudson or maybe or whatever for tax purposes during COVID But these are. These are. These are white flight from the commie corridor. That's the place that you're talking about.
- [57:59]
B
It might have been white flight from the commie corridor 10 years ago, before there was a commie corridor. But yes. No, there have been pronounced migration patterns in New York, in New York State, since COVID not disputing that at all. But there's also, like. But. But even among the native population in the Hudson Valley, the culture is different with respect to environmental issues, with respect to affordability as well. I mean, you want to talk about a region of this state that has been crushed by the affordability crisis, it is not quite New York City. It's the Hudson Valley. But that's probably a story for another day.
- [58:32]
A
It's the Tug Hill Plateau, and that's voting for Claudia Tenney by, you know, 40 points.
- [58:38]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah. New York's rust belt, for sure.
- [58:41]
A
Isn't it fun to get two people on a podcast together who know too much about New York?
- [58:45]
B
It's. It's always fun. And you can never know.
- [58:48]
A
Don't know nearly as much as you. Even though I've spent my life in New York City, Westchester, rural upstate New York, I've done it all.
- [58:55]
B
That's okay. You know, you can never have two people on a podcast and know too much about New York.
- [59:01]
A
Yeah. Okay. Any other thoughts as we, as we close this out and get ready for some answers in the conflicts that we've discussed here?
- [59:10]
B
No, I'm just. Thanks for having me again, you know, can't wait to see what happens. It'll be very exciting. It's Mamdani's midterm. That's what I'm gonna call it.
- [59:19]
A
All right. And we'll see how he fares. Thank you so much for joining me, Michael.
- [59:22]
B
Of course.
- [59:23]
A
My name is Galen Drew. Remember to become a subscriber to this podcast podcast@gdpolitics.com and wherever you get your podcast. Paid subscribers get about twice the number of episodes. You can also join in our paid subscriber chat and pass along questions for us to discuss on the show. And you ensure that we can keep making a podcast that prioritizes curiosity, rigor and a sense of humor. Also, be a friend of the POD and go give us a five star rating wherever you listen to podcasts, maybe even tell a friend about us. Thanks for listening and we will see you soon.