D (52:15)
Kind of. But there are almost too many different types of types to draw a consistent theme. I think you can certainly look and say there's a class of districts that are on the map because they have significant minority populations that have shifted heavily toward Republicans in recent years. So you've got your Texas districts, your south Texas districts like Texas 28, Texas 34, Texas 15 that are on the map because Texas Hispanics on the southern border have gone from being reliably Democratic to increasingly Republican. I would throw in a couple other seats there. Colorado 8 is another one. That's a plurality Hispanic district that Republicans were able to win with a Hispanic nominee in 2024. Arizona 1, Arizona 6. Not as Hispanic, but similarly decent sized Hispanic population in those districts. So that's kind of one tranche there. The second tranche, I would say, is the suburbs. There's been a tussle over the suburbs really, since the 2018 election when Democrats swept through and picked off a whole bunch of suburban seats that had swung very hard toward Republicans. And what we've seen over the last couple of years is Republicans slowly claw back those seats. They won a bunch of them back in 2020. They won a few more back in 2022, like Leo was saying about Virginia, too. And they kind of everyone kind of held serve more or less in 2024. But thinking about like, you know, you've got like an Arizona 6, which is the Tucson suburbs. You've got New York 17, which is, you know, Rockland County, Westchester county suburbs of New York. You've got Pennsylvania 7, which is, you know, kind of in that northeast Pennsylvania, Bethlehem Wilkes Barre, you know, that, that kind of area, Lehigh Valley. It's not like Millionaires Row Philly suburbs that like flipped in 2018 and never looked back. Right. We aren't talking about those kinds. We're not talking about, you know, the Mikey Sherrill, Montclair, you know, those kinds of super wealthy, highly educated, you know, Northern Virginia, Abigail Spanberger's old district, your Georgia, you know, Lucy McBath's district in Georgia that were the first to go in 2016 and 2018. And Republicans have not been able to win back. We're talking about kind of the next tranche of suburban and exurban districts, you know, Iowa 3, which is Des Moines and the Des Moines suburbs, in addition to a whole bunch of more rural areas, you know, parts of the country that Democrats won in 2018 and have struggled to keep a hold of since then. So, yeah, those are kind of the. That's kind of the other field here. And so I think you can kind of pick bellwethers from each of those to get a sense of how things are going. Right. If Republicans can win Texas 34 against Henry Cuellar, you know, that that would be a big deal, especially after Trump gave him a pardon, you know, if they can show that their strength among Texas Hispanics is now strong enough to oust a Democratic incumbent who is well liked because he is a Democrat. That's one thing. I think Pennsylvania 7 is kind of a classic bellwether district. It has voted very in line with state and, you know, national results in years past. So if you were to ask me kind of about control of the House. Right. I would say that one is kind of my go to for, you know, what's the bellwether for control of the House? Pennsylvania 7, which is freshman Republican Ryan McKenzie. You know, and then, and then you start to look further afield at like, what are the seats that if Democrats win, they're having even better nights. Right. So, you know, you look at Derek van Orden in Wisconsin 3, which is a Republican leaning seat that still has close elections in kind of western Wisconsin, Eau Claire lacrosse, that part of the state west of Madison, you know, I would include that one. I would say, you know, Leah, you're absolutely right. North Carolina 1, Ohio 9. If Democrats are holding on to those districts, that's another sign that Democrats are having a good night. And then you've got kind of the inoffensive suburban Republicans who have managed to hold on despite unfavorable political trends. So Fitzpatrick is one of those. Huizenga. Bill Huizenga in Michigan 4 is another one. Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo area Republican who is running for reelection in a seat that has trended away from Republicans. Rob Whitman in Virginia. That district could get sliced and diced, but he's another one that kind of has flown under the radar for many cycles even as this district has gotten more competitive. If those guys are losing, that's like another step up for Democrats. And then finally you've got like your reach seats. Like you've got Alaska and Arizona 2, which is like a rural north eastern Arizona. Tennessee 5, which is in, in kind of middle Tennessee, you know, places like that. Texas 35, which is a redrawn seat, Leah, that you mentioned that Republicans redrew in San Antonio to be more Republican. If Democrats can find a way to hold onto that by boosting turnout among Latino voters, like, to me, that's the signal, like this is turning into a bloodbath. And so, you know, you can kind of judge on a spectrum how far we are into wave territory based on which seats Democrats are winning.
