GD POLITICS Podcast
Episode: The Early Math Of The 2026 Midterms
Host: Galen Druke
Guests: Jacob Hrabashkin (Inside Elections), Leah Escarinam (AP)
Date: February 2, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode serves as a "table-setting" for the 2026 midterms, providing an early look at where things stand in House and Senate races, the conventional wisdom according to betting markets and polling, and why history is a shaky guide in today’s volatile political climate. With elections just nine months away, Galen Druke and his guests dig into the numbers, assess the national environment, discuss "black swan" events, and identify bellwether races to watch.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Where Things Stand: The Lay of the Land

• House: Republicans currently control the House by a razor-thin margin. Democrats need to flip 5 seats to take back the chamber.
• Senate: Republicans have a “safer” margin; Democrats need to pick up 4 seats, but the target states are mostly redder territory.
• Polling: Democrats hold a 5-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. President Trump’s net approval is -14.

Quote:
“History is clear about the challenges for Republicans. The incumbent party has lost seats in the House in 20 of the last 22 midterm elections, with an average loss of 32 seats.”
— Galen Druke (01:19)

2. The "Conventional Wisdom" and Betting Markets

• According to Polymarket, Democrats have a 79% chance to retake the House, Republicans a 66% chance to hold the Senate.
• Jacob: Would “hold” on those odds for the House; sees current estimates as fair but not definitive.
• Leah: Cautions against overconfidence; notes unpredictability and the rise of historical aberrations.

Quote:
“So you're not holding, you're not buying, you're not selling. You're just saying, I'm going shopping.”
— Galen Druke to Leah (05:21)
“I'm going shopping.”
— Leah Escarinam (05:27)

3. The Impact of Black Swan Events & Historical Aberrations

• Discussion of how unforeseen events have repeatedly upended expectations:
  • Covid-19’s effect on 2020
  • The Dobbs decision’s boost for Democrats in 2022
  • The rarity and unpredictability of major shifts like 9/11 or Clinton’s impeachment
  • The difficulty of knowing, in real time, which events will prove transformative

Quote:
“Just because you're very unlikely to win the lottery in any given week, somebody is very likely to win the lottery every single week. It's the same thing with these kinds of big, game-changing events.”
— Jacob Hrabashkin (05:45)

Notable Moment:
Galen jokes, “So, sometimes what causes a rally around the flag effect is a terrorist attack, and sometimes it’s a blowjob,” regarding the impact of events on political environments.
— (12:03)

4. How Much Can We Trust the Historical Trends?

• Leah questions whether recent elections (esp. 2022) count as aberrations and whether unpredictability is the new normal.
• Jacob argues that while Dobbs was a clear turning point in 2022, the House margin was too small for Democrats to benefit more.

Quote:
“What we've seen, especially since 2016, is that if something could happen, it really could happen.”
— Leah Escarinam (15:12)

5. Odds and Races: Senate and House "Flippability"

Senate

• Jacob ranks the 10 most competitive Senate seats from least to most likely to flip:

  10. Minnesota (D) – least likely
  9. Texas (R)
  8. Iowa (R)
  7. Ohio (R)
  6. New Hampshire (D)
  5. Georgia (D)
  4. Alaska (R)
  3. Maine (R-Susan Collins)
  2. Michigan (D)
  1. North Carolina (R) – most likely

• The panel discusses why Susan Collins (Maine) remains formidable despite her state’s blue lean, and why seats like Michigan and Alaska are particularly volatile.

Quote:
“Susan Collins has won tough races before. She has a hold on that state's voters in a way that people don't give her enough credit for … I am not convinced yet that the Democrats have figured out how to beat her.”
— Jacob Hrabashkin (34:28)

House

• Leah highlights bellwether districts:

  • NC-1 (Don Davis, Democrat, in tougher redrawn seat)
  • PA-1 (Brian Fitzpatrick, GOP "white whale" for Dems)
  • Texas's 5 targeted redrawn seats
  • CO-8 (narrowly divided)
  • VA-2 (Jen Kiggans, signals on suburban shifts)

• Jacob identifies types of competitive seats:

  1. Majority-minority districts shifting right (Texas border, CO-8)
  2. Classic swingy suburbs (PA-7, NY-17, AZ-6)
  3. Well-entrenched incumbents in changing burbs (PA-1 Fitzpatrick, MI-4 Huizenga)
  4. “Reach” seats that portend a Democratic wave (e.g., Alaska’s at-large seat, “if Dems win, it’s a bloodbath for the GOP”)

Quote:
“If Democrats can find a way to hold onto [TX-35] by boosting turnout among Latino voters, like, to me, that's the signal, like this is turning into a bloodbath.”
— Jacob Hrabashkin (57:03)

6. How to Read the National Environment Right Now

• Generic ballot: Democrats up by ~5; but both polling error and history mean that margin is fluid.
• Special elections: So far, Democrats are overperforming the generic ballot, suggesting their midterm position may be slightly better than polling alone shows.
• Trump’s deep unpopularity may matter, but issue polling remains mixed.

Quote:
“What we have is special elections…Democrats have overperformed in those special elections by about a dozen points. And, you know, you can measure that in different ways, but kind of no matter how you slice it, Democrats have overperformed, which is exactly what you would expect historically…”
— Leah Escarinam (24:29)

• The group discusses whether pollsters may be overcorrecting for past polling misses (especially underestimating Republican turnout) and potentially underestimating Democrats this cycle.

Quote:
“From an enthusiasm and motivation perspective, Democrats are much more fired up. That's why you've got Democrats winning statewide elections in Georgia by 20 points because... the motivation imbalance really reared its head.”
— Jacob Hrabashkin (27:03)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Historical Aberrations:
  “It's really hard to know in the moment what a big shift or a huge historical moment is, especially, especially in 2026, because look at your news alerts. Seems like something huge is happening every day.”
  — Leah Escarinam (10:46)

• On the “Table Setting” Theme:
  “We've got most of the utensils and, you know, glassware on the table, but I don't think we have any food yet. So we're going to have to continue setting the table in the months to come.”
  — Galen Druke (60:32)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Setting the scene for 2026 midterms: 00:41–01:57
• Conventional wisdom & betting markets: 02:37–05:27
• Black swan events & historical aberrations: 05:45–14:11
• Debating 2022 as a historical aberration: 14:17–15:12
• Senate race rankings & deep dives: 30:32–45:41
• House bellwethers & types of competitive seats: 48:58–59:26
• Summary & closing reflections: 60:13–61:08

Tone

The episode balances deep data analysis and historical parallels with wry humor and conversational rapport. The host and guests aren’t afraid to nerd out (“not what I signed up for!”), toss around inside jokes (Galen’s “sometimes it’s a terrorist attack and sometimes it’s a blowjob” quip at 12:03), or reflect on the absurdities of today's political environment.

Summary Takeaways

• Early indicators suggest a Democratic lean in both chambers, but history can’t be blindly trusted—especially post-2016.
• "Black swan" events and late-breaking shifts still loom, making any forecast highly provisional.
• The races to watch are a mix: competitive new maps, swingy suburbs, and entrenched incumbents who buck trends.
• The polling picture right now slightly underrepresents Democratic overperformance in actual special elections, raising questions about possible errors in current models.
• Table-setting is just that—the main courses (actual races and results) are yet to come.

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