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- [00:01]
Galen Brueke
Do you remember at the beginning of COVID when the sort of longer term lockdowns were starting to set in and Vanessa Hudgens, like, recorded herself? Do you know who Vanessa Hudgens is?
- [00:13]
Jacob Rubashkin
Do I? I'm 28, Galen. I. I have some shared cultural knowledge with you, okay?
- [00:20]
Galen Brueke
I know. You know, I never know. She recorded a video on Instagram where she was like, lockdown until June. Like, are you kidding me? And then she goes, people are gonna die, which is terrible, but also inevitable. And then people got really pissed at her, but they've learned to love her again. And I feel like Joni Ernst will be on the same trajectory.
- [00:44]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah. And you know, this is kind of her thing, right? I mean, she had an ad in 2014 about castrating hogs, right?
- [00:52]
Galen Brueke
Like she make em squeal.
- [00:54]
Jacob Rubashkin
Make em squeal. She's the woman of. Of uncomfortable truths.
- [01:08]
Galen Brueke
Hello and welcome to the GD Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Brueke. The contours of the 2026 midterms are taking shape in House districts across the country. And Inside Elections just released their most up to date ratings. So today we're going to spotlight five districts to watch. Democrats only need to flip three seats in order to gain control of the House, but how deep into Trump territory are they trying to compete? We're also going to get into that Trump Musk breakup last week with today's gdbd. So happy pride, folks. A recent piece in Politico argues that based on the polling quote, Musk boasts his own base of support that exists outside traditional partisan boundaries, particularly marked by the parasocial relationship young men have with him. That makes him a danger to a fragile coalition Republicans relied on in 2024. So is that a good take based on the data? Here with me to discuss it all is Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor at Inside Elections. Welcome, Jacob.
- [02:11]
Jacob Rubashkin
Thanks for having me, Galen.
- [02:13]
Galen Brueke
Always, always a pleasure. So let's begin with our GDB example. Do you know how this goes? It's good data, bad data, not data.
- [02:22]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah, let's do it.
- [02:23]
Galen Brueke
Okay. So an article in Politico argues in the headline, quote, the polling on Elon Musk is a warning for Republicans. It reads, quote, in the most recent Economist YouGov poll, 76% of Republicans viewed Musk favorably, compared to just 18% who viewed him unfavorably. A late April New York Times Sienna College poll placed his favorability rating among Republicans at 77%. It goes on to say, quote, that may change after Musk's scorched earth breakup with Trump. But the odds aren't great. Musk's standing within the GOP has remained remarkably high since the beginning of the Trump administration, over 70% in most polls. That makes him far more popular than House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and almost everyone else in the party. Finally, they say if it seems like the GOP cavalry has been slow to aid Trump so far, that's because Musk strikes fear into office holders who can easily envision him funding primary challenges and hounding them on social media. And it's not just the individual electeds who have cause for concern. Musk on Thursday floated the idea of creating a new political party that actually represents the 80% in the middle. In an online ex poll. In less than 24 hours, more than 5 million votes had been cast. So, Jacob, is this take based on good data, bad data, or not data?
- [03:55]
Jacob Rubashkin
I mean, he cites one poll, so maybe, to be generous, it's bad data, but this is no data. I think that this take was completely off base. I think it's fundamental. Yeah, I don't know. I just. I was reading it and I kept thinking that there would be more. I think that it's just a fundamental misreading of. Of Republican politics right now, and I can't agree with it. I don't think that it's based on anything more than kind of vibes and the newscasters urge for drama and consternation that. That I think a lot of us, whether we admit it or not, like to have.
- [04:35]
Galen Brueke
So you're not convinced by that polling that Musk has some enduring popularity amongst Republicans that could prove deleterious to elected officials or the party?
- [04:46]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah, just. Just because he's popular right now doesn't mean that he's going to maintain that popularity. If Trump really goes after, I think, taking 10 steps back, who knows if this thing will actually blow up? I mean, it blew up pretty spectacularly at the end week, but then Elon deleted his tweets. We're in kind of a weird interregnum here. Are they going to keep going at each other? Is there going to be a detente? I mean, if Trump is known for anything, it's the ability to turn on a dime and patch things up with people who he wants to play nice with. He went from threatening to nuke Kim Jong Un to exchanging love letters with him in a matter of months. So I wouldn't put it past him to mend those fences with Musk. But even if they do continue to be at loggerheads, Trump is Trump. He is a singular figure in, in the Republican Party. And just because Republicans happen to like Elon Musk right now doesn't mean that they're going to pick him over the guy who has single handedly rearranged the entire politics of the United States around his own personality over the last decade. It just, it just doesn't hold water.
- [05:50]
Galen Brueke
Yeah, I mean, if we're looking for some data to back up that view. Jacob Yougov, always first out in the field, asked Americans, I think the day after the blow up, which by the way, the blow up was on Thursday. Last Thursday's episode we recorded reported on Wednesday, which is why we didn't spend the whole time talking about Trump and Musk. So my apologies folks, but in any case, out on Friday, YouGov had a poll that showed Republicans siding with Trump over Musk, 71% to 6% if forced to choose between the two. And for what it's worth, I don't know that it's worth all that much, but if you just compare their popularities with Americans, overall, Trump's net approval right now is net negative 4. Musk's approval is negative 11, which by the way has ticked up a little bit since the, the fight up like net three. I think that's mostly amongst maybe independents or Democrats who thought he was an asshole, but now are cheering for him because he went for Trump's jugular on Thursday. But I think there's another question here which is not just if forced to pick between Trump and Musk, who would you pick? It's does Elon Musk have any sway in Washington? And particularly given the money that he could spend in politics, are other rank and file Republicans going to be somewhat afraid of him? Which gets to the question of like, if Musk really wants to, can he take this big beautiful bill?
- [07:17]
Jacob Rubashkin
I don't think so. No. I am really skeptical that he has that power. Troy Nels, who is a, you know, pro Trump, one of the more pro Trump members of Congress at this point from Texas, who funny enough got elected to a Biden district in, in 2020 and then when he got redrawn to be in a safe seat became much more conservative. That's why redistricting matters. I mean, he said, Elon can come to my district and run against me personally, I'll pay his filing fee. I don't think that Republicans are particularly scared right now of these threats from Musk because I'm not sure how seriously they ultimately take them. I think that obviously he's Got a ton of money and money counts for a lot in politics. But I guess I'm just not convinced that he is in a position to want to or have the ability to use that leverage. And that's for two reasons. Right. The first is that the issue that he has picked to stake his claim on this kind of deficit reduction, oh, there's too much spending in the bill, there's not enough cutting. This is Republican orthodoxy from like 15 years ago. This is not Republican orthodoxy from the era of Trump. Right. Trump added more to the deficit in his first term than any president in American history. And Republicans did not care. Right. There's a portion of the Republican Party that likes to talk about deficits still and thinks that it's kind of the main thing that they're about, but they are no longer the dominant faction. That's Thomas Massie, that's, you know, Rand Paul. Those are the guys who are most straightforwardly with Musk here. I just don't think there's an appetite or for that kind of Tea Party esque fiscal conservative over everything else in today's Republican Party. And so if that's going to be Musk's message, I don't think it's going to communicate. The second point is, you know, you said, Galen, on your show last Thursday, because you did touch on this a little bit, that if, if, if Musk could run for president, right. If he had been a natural born American citizen, he would have done it. He would have, he would have been Ross Perot. And I actually disagree with you on that front because I don't think that Elon has the kind of single focus, maniacal nature that Ross Perot had that he was able to kind of focus in on running for president as like the one thing that he was going to devote all of his time and energy and resources to in the same kind of methodical way that he approached his business. I don't think that Musk has that capacity. I think that he's spread far too thin. He's on too many drugs and he, well, I mean he, he admits to some of it and reportedly a lot more. I, I just don't think that even if he could run for President, he could actually run the kind of operation that, that Perot managed to stand up.
- [10:17]
Galen Brueke
Yeah, I think that's fair. I think though, with regards the debt and deficit, it seems like we're on a cycle in American politics where every 15 years or so it becomes something of a motivating feature in politics. And it's because We've hit some sort of breaking point where it starts to enter the zeitgeist. Whether it's the bond vigilantes who start talking about it or part of one of the parties that starts talking about it, it seems to grab hold. And once it does, it really has a lot of power because people feel this intimately. They understand, you know, if I'm way over leveraged in my personal life, my finances going into the future are going to be and I'm not going to have money to spend on the things I want to because of interest payments. It feels intuitive to people. Now, politicians can and do argue different sides of that, that, you know, public funding and public debt works differently than private funding and debt. In some ways that's true. In other ways it's not all that true. At a, at a certain point, we do spend more and more on interest payments that we can't spend on other things. And I, I think that there is a little bit of an opening here now for folks to start criticizing the status quo government over debt and deficit spending. Honestly, it's something that if Democrats wanted to bring up, I think in the midterms or even in 2028, they could, I don't know if there's a commitment on their part, but if Musk talks about this for the next year and a half, up until, you know, the midterms, I think that does do damage to Republicans potentially. You know, one of the best ways to, to neutralize the other party's advantages is for criticizing them over those advantages. Right? Oh, you say you care about the debt and deficit. You're a bunch of hypocrites. You're the same old politics who never get anything done. It's anti elite rhetoric. It's anti status quo rhetoric, which is really powerful in America. So maybe the, the actual content matters less than, hey, you guys are hypocrites. You're the same old politicians who say one thing and do the other and you know we're coming for you. I mean, you can, you can do it on any kind of issue. You could do it on immigration. You, oh, you say you're going to deport all the criminals. Well, you're being less effective and less efficient at deporting criminals than Obama was. So, you know, you're saying one thing and then doing another thing. And you're not even deporting people well enough that you can keep them deported because you're illegally deporting them. And so they end up having to come back to America. And then you have to Litigate it in court. Like this is not an efficient, effective way to, of getting rid of the people who are in the country illegally and also have a criminal record. So like a smart party can do this kind of stuff. Elon Musk being unassociated really with the Democratic Party and only being loosely and recently associated with the Republican Party is maybe the key kind of person to dislodge the independents and the anti elitists and the anti status quo voters from Republicans coalition.
- [13:03]
Jacob Rubashkin
Maybe. I guess I'll believe it when I see it. I just, I don't think that he's really. I don't think that this is really his life's purpose. I think that if anything, he got to deficit reduction long after he got to the Republican Party. Right. It was the social issues, it was censorship, it was trans kids. It was those kinds of things that brought him to the Republican Party to begin with. And it's only in the last couple of months with Doge and everything that he has become the, the fiscal hawk guy. I don't think that this is something that he holds particularly deeply in terms of his relationship to politics. And I'm just skeptical that he's going to put forth the effort or resources.
- [13:47]
Galen Brueke
Right, Okay. I think that's more of a fair argument. Like. Yeah, but then that's starting to look at the anatomy of Elon Musk's personality, which I don't know that we have any data on and I'm ill equipped to do.
- [13:58]
Jacob Rubashkin
Like a will to do.
- [13:59]
Galen Brueke
Yeah, I think a person could do it. Will Elon Musk do it? I mean. Shruggy emoji.
- [14:05]
Jacob Rubashkin
But if he were to air a million dollars of ads against Ken Calvert for voting for this bill in California. 41. In the same way that he ran a million dollars of ads for Ken Calvert last cycle. Yeah, that would make a difference. I just, I just don't think he's going to do it.
- [14:21]
Galen Brueke
Can we touch on one other thing that's related to this? Musk's assertion that there's 80% of Americans in the middle who would support a third party. You're already rolling your eyes. I have a feeling I know what argument you're going to make, but make it just so that I can respond.
- [14:38]
Jacob Rubashkin
Polls always show that lots of Americans, I don't know if it's 80%, want a third party because people don't like the Democrats. They don't really like the Republicans. They aren't all talking about the same third party. They all are talking about a mythical party that conforms to every single one of their specific idiosyncratic political beliefs. That party doesn't exist. And if that party did exist, we'd have 300 million of them because they'd all be different. So, sure, yeah. Do Americans in theory want a third political party? Do they want more options? Yes, absolutely. 80%, 90%, whatever the number may be. In actuality, is there a hypothetical third party that could appeal to those 80% of people? No, it doesn't exist. It's a pipe dream. It's not how our political system is set up. And if he wants to throw $1 billion at it, he's going to buy a lot of consultants in D.C. third houses and, and second boats. But he's not going to change politics.
- [15:31]
Galen Brueke
Okay, I had a feeling that that's exactly what you were going to say. So here's my response, which is in my almost like 15 years, I'm getting old. Almost 15 years covering politics. Right. Like we always talk about past as prologue and history informs what will happen next. And in general, everything that we have, all the data we have historically suggests that this doesn't work. And instead of starting a third party, if you really want to change American politics, you should take over one of the parties that already exists, as Donald Trump did.
- [16:03]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah.
- [16:03]
Galen Brueke
We are in a place though, in American politics where what's like 43% of Americans identify as independents just because the party's brands are so bad. I mean, people really both, if you look at them, both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are unpopular. The Democratic Party is more unpopular than the Republican Party. Today it's net negative 20 favorability versus Republicans, which is net negative 10. But there's a lot of dissatisfaction with the status quo. And in a situation like that, you are not going to be able to find a policy agenda that will appease that 43%, let alone that 80%. So what has happened in other countries, and of course this is countries with multi party systems, is the way that you get those people into a coalition is you run a kind of anti politics campaign. It's not really about policy, it's really about how the status quo, the politicians today are ruining America and that we all need to unite and sort of be above the right left divide. You know, I think Elon Musk is a kind of character. I mean, obviously he can't run who might be able to do something like that because he has some credibility and lack of credibility that spans different partisanships. But think of like the five star movement in Italy. It's not really a political movement so much as an anti political movement. The way you get a bunch of people who all are just generally discontented on board with you is you say the people who are doing it now suck. We just need to get them the hell out of D.C. and then the rest is gravy. And in doing that, you can sort of pick popular positions from both sides of the aisle. I mean, Ross Perot hammered on the debt and deficit, but then when asked about abortion, he was like, yeah, get an abortion. Right. You know, you kind of can when you don't belong to either the Democrats or Republicans. The advantage is that you can just pick the popular position from either side. But the main message is these guys who are currently in power. So, you know, we are, we are getting to a place in American politics where there's so much discontent that somebody could, with a lot of money and charisma and the right kind of arguments could at least blow things up and make them interesting. But a viable third party, I'm still not sure.
- [18:14]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah, I, again, it's, I'm in the, I'm in the believe it when I see it camp. I think that Perot, Perot is kind of the only instance in which we've, we've seen kind of proof of concept of that. And even him, he wasn't able to replicate his own success between 92 and 96. Right. He still did decently. In 96 he got about 8% of the vote, but he got 19. And in 92. And that was after he dropped out halfway through the election he was leading in the polls. And you know, I think Perot suffers from some of the same things that Musk does in terms of.
- [18:46]
Galen Brueke
Now you're arguing against yourself. You were saying that he was singularly focused, but then he got sidetracked with like some weird accusations about his daughter and dropped out of the race and.
- [18:56]
Jacob Rubashkin
Sure, sure, I guess, I guess I think that Perot, it was more focused than Musk was, but ultimately fell prey to some of the same, you know, issues that I think a lot of people who are that rich and successful have. No, I hear you on that. I just, I, I'm skeptical. I think in a, in a first past the post, you know, two party system, it's just real difficult. And if anyone were to do it, I do feel like it would come up, like not from the top down, but from a bottom up. Right. If you had the resources and the wherewithal to start running minor party or third party or independent candidates at the local level. At the state level and try to gain a foothold from which you could then launch national campaigns. I think that would be more compelling to me than these kind of one off cults of personality third party campaigns that either happen or that we talk about like Mike Bloomberg or Oprah.
- [19:49]
Galen Brueke
Yeah, cults of personality always fail in American politics, Jacob.
- [19:54]
Jacob Rubashkin
Outside of the third, the two party system, they, they kind of do, I think. I don't know, I just, I'm skeptical. I think we're stuck. I think these are our options.
- [20:03]
Galen Brueke
All right, I just want to know before we move on that Polymarket was basically giving away money earlier this year. So on the very first episode of the GD Politics podcast, I played Buy Sell hold with Nate Silver and the odds that Musk would be out in 2025 were at 43%. Nate obviously bought at those odds. You could have too. You would have been rich. But you know, that's why, that's why you can make money listening to the GD Politics podcast. But let's move on and talk about those House districts. But first, a break. Today's podcast is brought to you by you, dear listener. When you become a paid subscriber@gdpolitics.com there's a little message you can fill out explaining why you chose to subscribe and support the podcast. Or one of the main themes you've mentioned is rigor. That's important to me and it makes me really happy to hear that it's important to you. Steven says you and the FiveThirtyEight podcast helped me better understand politics and the world. For years, I couldn't imagine not having the same rigorous, data driven analysis on politics in my life and in my ears. Kayla said, one of the most trusted voices in American politics and public opinion is. In a world where accessible evidence based media is fleeting, Galen offers digestible, insightful analysis. Wow. Thanks, Kayla. Warren says Galen offers calm data presentation and guides us through context, possible causalities and potential implications. This thinking process becomes second nature, making listeners into more critical consumers of media. Wow, Warren. I mean, put on my tombstone. And lastly, Odin Habler. I think that's how you say your name. Says, I like your data driven approach. I'm not even in the US but I am a political scientist and here in Germany, there doesn't even exist an equivalent in podcasts. Join these listeners by becoming a paid subscriber today@gdpolitics.com in fact, do it right now. We will still be here when you get back. That's GDPolitics.com and thank you in order to flip Congress next fall, Democrats would need to win three seats in the House and four seats in the Senate. We've talked a bit about the Senate before on this podcast, so today we're going to focus more on the House where primary campaigns are taking shape. Now, I asked Jacob to name the five districts to watch. He chose four and left me to pick the fifth. So we'll get into those. But first, let's talk about the generic congressional ballot, which asks Americans, if the election were held today, which party would you vote for in the House? From what I can tell, Real Clear Politics is the only outlet with a current average posted, and it shows Democrats leading by two and a half points. That's up a little from early May when we first talked about it. Then it was Democrats up by two points. So, Jacob, what does the generic congressional ballot tell you about the state of the 2026 midterms today?
- [23:05]
Jacob Rubashkin
Not much. I'm not a huge believer in generic ballot kind of this, this far out. I mean, look, we're in June of the off year. That means we've got, if my math is correct, right, 17 months before election Day. I'm not too focused, I guess, on what the generic ballot says right now. I mean, you know, from one perspective, right, the generic ballot at this point in the 2017, 2018 cycle was significantly better for Democrats, you know, probably a seven point advantage. So, you know, to the extent that we can try and draw comparisons between the first Trump administration and the second Trump administration, perhaps a little bit less energy on the Democratic side than that time, which I don't think would surprise anyone if, if they, if they, you know, heard that. But overall, I mean, I think it speaks to kind of the thermostatic nature of politics, right? Republicans are in power, Democrats have an edge heading into the midterms, and we'll see how it develops, you know, over the, over the next 17 months. I think presidential approval rating is just as important a metric at this point, and for our purposes at least, we're far more interested in who's actually getting into these races. Are good candidates deciding to run for Congress? Are people afraid of running? And are members of Congress going to retire rather than seek reelection in what they think could be a more difficult year?
- [24:26]
Galen Brueke
So I get it that you, as a member of one of the ratings groups, puts less stock in the generic ballot polling than some of the other folks we would have on this podcast like Nathaniel or Mary, because they were pretty much like, all right, these Democrats are winning this generic ballot polling. Is only going to get worse for Republicans from here, et cetera, et cetera. But you're really looking at the nitty gritty and seeing who's running in each district and whether or not they're a good fit.
- [24:55]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah, look, I mean, I don't necessarily disagree with the overall concept here. Right. We know we're in a midterm election with the Republican in the White House. We know that in the last hundred years, the trend has been that the party in power loses seats in the House. I think it's 22 out of the last 24 midterm elections, the president's party has lost seats in the House. They've always lost more than three seats in those 22 elections when they lost seats. So there's no universe, you know, there's no example of a president's party only losing one seat in the House or two seats in the House. They've always lost at least three. The only two times where that didn't happen are 1998 and 2002. So Monica Lewinsky impeachment, Bill Clinton and aftermath of 9 11. If you go back further, you've got to go all the way back to 1934 in the midst of the Great Depression, where FDR picks up more seats in the House. So Republicans have to ask themselves, like, is the current political situation analogous to the Great Depression, the Clinton impeachment, or the aftermath of 9 11? And if the answer is no, they're going to lose seats in the House, and history would say they're going to lose more than three. And so Democrats are going to retake the majority. I think that's a separate question than, like, what does the generic ballot say right now? But it's all part of a larger piece about who has the momentum heading into 2026.
- [26:12]
Galen Brueke
Okay, well, with that, let's start our tour. And where are we headed first, Jacob?
- [26:18]
Jacob Rubashkin
We are going just north of Denver, Colorado, in the beautiful 8th congressional district in Colorado, one of the newest congressional districts in the country. It's only been around for two election cycles, and it's also one of the closely, most closely divided districts in the country. It was won by a Democrat in 2022, a Republican in 2024. It voted for Biden in 2020, it voted for Trump in 2024. And it's got a little bit of everything. It's got a freshman incumbent, a young Hispanic guy who is viewed as a rising star in the party with a military background. It's got a former Democratic incumbent trying to reclaim her seat While struggling with some very serious mental health challenges. And a whole bunch of other Democrats who are vying to take on incumbent Gabe Evans as well, including Manny Rootnell, a young state representative who got in the race and raised $1 million kind of out of nowhere in his first couple of weeks. So a lot going on.
- [27:20]
Galen Brueke
Was that because people thought he was hot?
- [27:24]
Jacob Rubashkin
So he is objectively very handsome. Right. Like, you know, I'm not breaking any news by saying that. I don't think that was the only reason why he raised a lot of money. I think he's got a lot of connections. He went to Yale. He has been involved in kind of this Silicon Valley VC space, I think, and some of his kind of green agriculture startup programs. So he's got some connections. I think it doesn't hurt that, like, he looks good when he cuts an Instagram ad and gets people to donate to him.
- [27:55]
Galen Brueke
You sent me in the message that we were, where we were corresponding. You were like, one of these candidates has gone viral for basically being good looking. You didn't say who it was. So I just had to look up the candidates and be like, which one of these people do I think could go viral for being good looking? And that seemed like the only plausible answer. Is that the person you were talking about?
- [28:12]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yes, that is Manny. Got it.
- [28:13]
Galen Brueke
No.
- [28:13]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah.
- [28:14]
Galen Brueke
People can do their own research and decide for themselves. But I'll add, I'll add, you know, speaking of having Latinos running in this district, the district is about 52% white. It's almost 40% Latin Hispanic, and then from there, you know, about 4% Asian, 2% black. But it is a district that has a large representation of Hispanic voters. Obviously, people will not be surprised to hear that that's a group of voters that went significantly to the right over the past decade or so. So I think it's an election to watch from that regard as well. But what do you currently rate it and does it depend on who ends up winning the Democratic primary? There's.
- [28:56]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah. So we have it rated as a toss up, which is our most competitive category. It's going to be a really close race. It was decided by under a point in the last two cycles. But I do think that there is some concern that if Yadira Caravello, who's the former member who won in 22 and lost in 24, if she's the Democratic nominee, she's going to have some challenges because she has faced a number of damaging stories over the last couple of months since she got in the race. Both about her mental health struggles, her two suicide attempts in 2024, and several allegations from her staff of abusive behavior, essentially that she mistreated them during the course of her campaign. And so there's some real trepidation among Democrats, both in Colorado and here in D.C. that if she is the nominee, she's not going to be able to put together the campaign that's necessary to win such a competitive and must win districts for Democrats. I mean, sometimes there's a lot of fear about certain candidates and their ability to win, and then if the cycle is good enough and they are able to improve enough, it doesn't end up mattering. But certainly I think that there are other candidates in the race who probably would have fewer obvious vulnerabilities than she does.
- [30:10]
Galen Brueke
Now, Gabe Evans, the Republican who currently represents the district, obviously is representing one of the most closely divided districts in the country. And I'm just curious. You sort of offhandedly mentioned the effects of recent redistricting earlier in the show. Has the fact that he represents such a purple district shaped his tenure in government at all? I mean, has he been trepidatious about voting for the one big beautiful Bill Act? Has he said other things that have sort of provided him some distance from more unpopular parts of the Republican Party or what have you?
- [30:47]
Jacob Rubashkin
He's, he's actually kept his head down. You know, notably, he was not on the letter that a number of members of the Congressional Hispanic Conference, which I believe is the Republican version essentially of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, which is a Democratic organization. Tony Gonzalez, a Texas representative, wrote a letter about Medicaid, essentially saying, look, a lot of constituents in my district are on Medicaid. A number of other Republican members, largely Hispanic members, are members from Hispanic plurality districts or significant population districts signed onto the letter. Gabe Evans did not sign onto that letter. I asked his staff about it, and they essentially said, you know, he is, is working the angle on his own. But, you know, he, he wants to do his own thing. He doesn't. He's, he's not going to join anyone else's bandwagon here. You know, he voted for the bill. I don't think that he was particularly vocal, at least from a national perspective, about kind of his concerns over the bill. In his brief tenure in Congress, he hasn't tried to stake out ground like a, like a Don Bacon or someone else who really has tried to put some distance between themselves and the national Republican brand. We'll see if that changes as, as the cycle continues. But for the moment, he, he Has a pretty solid rank and file. Vote for, for Republican leadership.
- [32:07]
Galen Brueke
All right, let's ditch Colorado and come back east to the best coast. I think we're headed to New York. Which, which district are we zooming in on next?
- [32:18]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah, who wants to be in Colorado? Right. Let's go to Westchester. Hey, everyone's favorite.
- [32:26]
Galen Brueke
I used to live there.
- [32:27]
Jacob Rubashkin
Vacation destination. I'm sorry. So New York's 17th congressional district, this is one of the three districts that voted for Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, but a Republican member of Congress down ballot. That is, of course, Mike Lawlor, one of the more Republican prominent Republicans in that conference at the moment. This district also has a little bit of everything. I mean, we don't know if Lawler is going to run again or if he's going to run for governor. And there are at last seven Democrats who are currently running and several more potentially on their way into the field. All of them got in not knowing whether Lawlor would run for governor, whether he was running for reelection. Kind of what the deal was there. But this is kind of a. This is a real must win for House Democrats at least. It's one of the only districts that again, was carried by Harris, and it's the only one that isn't represented by, like, a guy who has a long history of overperforming the top of the ticket. I mean, Don Bacon and Brian Fitzpatrick are like the two white whales of the Democratic Party, you know, will believe that they're beatable when Democrats beat them. Mike Lawler doesn't have that track record. You know, if they're, if they're going to beat him, this is the cycle. They need to do it.
- [33:44]
Galen Brueke
So just to share a little more demographic information about the district, it is 98% urban. It's 64% white, 20% Hispanic, 7% black, 5% Asian. So a pretty diverse district. It is also a pretty wealthy district. So the median household income there is is about $120,000, whereas nationally it's $80,000. I'm curious if any of the Democrats who have gotten into the primary so far seem particularly ill or poorly suited to take that district or if it's just kind of like it doesn't really matter if Democrats have any chance of winning the House next fall, they're definitely winning this district and they can just run, you know, the letter D sponsored by Sassan Street.
- [34:33]
Jacob Rubashkin
Look, I think that it's. We're still very early, and when you've got a field that large. I was talking to a Democratic strategist a couple weeks ago about this district, and I asked them if they had a candidate in the field there, and they said no. I try and steer clear of those primaries. Those are the kind of races where on election day, we learn who was going to win all along. Like, it's just. You can't predict them, but, you know, they. They're gonna turn out the way that they turn.
- [35:00]
Galen Brueke
What does that mean on primary election day or.
- [35:03]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah, on. On primary election day, you know, you, You. You learn who was going to win all along. It's like you can do this whole long, drawn out, you know, election with seven different candidates each who can raise $2 million, and they all beat each other up, and then somebody wins with 22% of the vote. And like, anything could have changed the outcome or nothing could have changed the outcome. And it's impossible to know. And so I think it's just gonna be a knife fight in the Hudson Valley here. You know, Beth Davidson, who is a local legislator there, has certainly gotten the most kind of local support, establishment support. She's got an endorsement from Mondaire Jones, who was the previous Democratic nominee and represented part of this district when he was in Congress. So if there's a frontrunner, it's probably her, but I use that very, very loosely. There's also a woman in the race, Kate Connelly, who comes out of kind of the National Security school of Democrats. She worked for cisa, which is the cybersecurity. I'm gonna butcher the acronym here, but they do election security. She worked in the Biden White House. She's great on paper. I think her campaign got off to a little bit of a rocky start where they claimed that her intro video was shot in Ossining, which is a town in the district.
- [36:20]
Galen Brueke
Yeah, that's where I used to live. Home on Sing Sing Prison, famously.
- [36:27]
Jacob Rubashkin
And, you know, it's her working out in her home workout gym in the little lower third, says Ossining, N.Y. and then the next day, Politico wrote a story that said, actually it was filmed in her home gym in Northern Virginia, where she lives, because she has worked in D.C. so Rocky starts for her, her campaign manager, her spokeswoman. No longer with the campaign after that rollout. But I hear what you're saying. I think that if this district develops into the kind of. If the cycle develops into the kind of wave that we saw in 2018, it's probably not going to matter who the candidate is here, especially if Lawler doesn't run. And it has to be a new Republican who doesn't have the same kind of roots or image in the district that he does.
- [37:12]
Galen Brueke
You mentioned one of the candidates working for the, the Biden administration. Is there any sense that in the Democratic primary fights so far, the Biden history is becoming a dividing line at all? I mean, are there Democrats running who are saying, hey, the status quo Democratic Party got up. And for people who were aligned with Biden throughout, you know, you have, you got to say something for yourself or there should be hell to pay or whatever over obviously covering for somebody who didn't seem to have it all there or the ability to, you know, be president to the, to a full extent, I guess both in primaries. And I'm also curious, are any incumbents getting primaried with that kind of messaging?
- [37:56]
Jacob Rubashkin
Not really on the Democratic side. I think the Democrats are more interested in moving past that whole episode. It's the Republicans who are really trying to interject in those contests and put Democrats on the spot about their past support for Biden. You know, I think certainly Democrats who worked in the Biden administration, Maggie Goodlander is one that comes up, you know, in New Hampshire too, when she was thinking about running for Senate. And even, you know, she faces a potentially competitive reelection. Republicans in New Hampshire love to ask her about what she knew and when she knew it. Her husband, Jake Sullivan, of course, Biden's national security security advisor. But Maggie Goodlander herself worked in the Biden administration. I haven't seen it come up in Democratic primaries so far, but it's still early and Democratic voters are still kind of working through the five stages of grief when it comes to how everything went down in 2024. So we could see it rear its head certainly over the next year or so as these primaries play out.
- [38:54]
Galen Brueke
Well, it seems like David Hogg, who was a Parkland survivor and also now part of the Democratic Party formally is interested in primary some incumbents. On the issue of age, which some, some, some Democrats refer to as the gerontocracy, does that seem to be catching fire in any way or being a factor in any of these primaries?
- [39:19]
Jacob Rubashkin
No. I mean, I feel like I'm coming off on as such a, like a huge skeptic about everything on this show, but I'll believe it when I see it. Right. Like David Hogg said, he was going to raise $20 million to primary Democratic incumbents in safe seats. I don't think he's gotten anyone into those races yet. He's got an endorsement in one of the open Illinois seats. He's got a candidate who is probably going to jump into the California 40 race against Young Kim, which she's a Republican in the coming weeks. But he hasn't certainly hasn't raised $20 million, and he hasn't landed any sort of major recruits against Democratic incumbents in safe seats quite yet. So again, we'll see if it happens. But at the moment, I think that's more talk than it is, you know, actionable items.
- [40:02]
Galen Brueke
Today's podcast is brought to you by you, the listener. As I mentioned earlier, when you become a paid subscriber@gdpolitics.com, there's a little message box you can fill out explaining why you chose to subscribe. Now, one of those main themes was rigorous. Another theme was that through all the data and politics, we try to laugh a little bit, too. James says, I really want to support you because I love how you talk about politics. I like how you talk about data perception versus reality through polling. And I love your humor. Jesse says, I love Galen's witty personality and sensible takes. I mean, come on. Witty personality, sensible takes? Put that on my dating app. I'm a politics junkie that prefers the shows I watch to be fun and informative. Whatever Galen has planned, I just know it's going to be good. John says, I really enjoyed your work. To date, the analysis was data driven with humor and rigor hard to find in today's Opinion Swap. And lastly, Rachel says, I really want to support you because I believe in you and I love you and you're my favorite cousin. Okay, well, this is actually from my cousin Rachel, and I'm glad to hear that I'm her favorite. We'll keep that between us. Hopefully none of the other cousins are listening to the podcast. Anyway, join these listeners by becoming a paid subscriber today@gdpolitics.com in fact, do it right now. We will be here when you get back. That's GDPolitics.com and thank you. Okay, let's put that aside and go to probably one of the nicest districts to be in this time of year, which is the summer and it's Maine. So where are we going, Jacob?
- [41:42]
Jacob Rubashkin
We're going to the north of Maine, the largest congressional district by area east of the Mississippi. Maine 2nd congressional district. This is the most Republican district currently held by a Democrat, Jared Goldin. You know, he won the seat even as Trump carried it by more than 10 points in 2024, perennial top target for Republicans. And yet the fact that he is this kind of tatted up Marine, who is as home on a, you know, on a lobster boat as he is in the halls of Congress, has been able to hold on despite the political winds in the district blowing in the opposite direction this time around. Republicans, you know, they've tried a whole bunch of things against him. They tried Bruce Poliquin, who was the former congressman. They tried a local state legislator named Dale Crafts. They tried a NASCAR driver named Austin Therio. Now they're trying Former Governor Paul LePage, who was governor for eight years in the 2010s, moved to Florida, moved back to Maine, ran for Governor again in 2022, lost, and is now going to be the Republican nominee, almost certainly against Jared Goldin this fall.
- [42:51]
Galen Brueke
To share some demographic information again about this district, it is 72% rural, about 30% urban. The median household income is 61 grand. So quite a bit less the national average of 80 when it comes to the racial and ethnic breakdown, it's 91% white. And then as you can tell from that, that's very little of anything else. And that probably shows people to some extent why this is a district that might be shifting. Right. In recent years. Right. It's not a wealthy district, but it's a very white district. You know, Jared Goldin obviously declined to leave his seat in order to run for either Senate against Susan Collins or for governor. That seems to suggest that he has some confidence that he can hold on to this seat. Are you feeling confident?
- [43:42]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah. So we have it rated as tilt Democratic. Right now. We give him a slight advantage. And I think that is all to do with him. Right. If this were an open seat, this would be Republicans best pickup opportunity in the country. But he has shown an ability to win in tough circumstances, and this is going to be the most favorable environment for him to run in since his first election in 2018, when he beat an incumbent Republican who had been there for close to a decade. So I think that golden definitely starts out in the driver's seat. You know, LePage, very controversial figure, very compelling life story, but also, you know, puts his foot in his mouth quite a bit. And, you know, he's had real ups and downs in Maine politics. But look, I think this is going to be a decent year for. This is going to be a decent year for Democrats. And golden is a good candidate. And I think he didn't want to run for Senate against his old boss, Susan Collins. And I don't think that he would have been a shoo in, in the Democratic primary for governor either. I think that's. That would have been probably as risky a proposition, if not more so than, than running for reelection to the House. So I think he's got decent odds heading into this race. And this is one that Republicans, if they want to, you know, maintain or expand their majority, as they're still talking about doing right now, this, this is one they absolutely have to win.
- [45:03]
Galen Brueke
All right, let's go to, like, the mirror side of the country and look at Washington's 3rd congressional district, which people will probably have heard plenty from. The Democratic incumbent there. She seems to always be like, people are always profiling her as, like the juggernaut Democrat who can win in Republican territory. And she has all of these ideas about how to improve the Democratic Party going forward. That's, of course, Marie Glus and Kemp Perez tell us about how that's shaping up.
- [45:33]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah, so this race, this is one of the few districts in the country that actually voted more Democratic in 2024 than it did in 2020. There are probably like six or seven in the country out of 435. Right. Trump did really well relative to how he did in 2020. But this is one that has continued to move in Democrats direction. Marie Glusonkamp Perez won an upset victory in 22 against Joe Kent, who had a lot of baggage. He ran again in 24. She beat him by a significant, significantly larger margin. Now he is a Trump administration official. He's nominated to lead the National Counterterrorism Center. Republicans are very happy about that. Nobody is complaining that Joe Kent probably isn't going to run for a third time in Washington. Three, and you know, the Republicans have to find a candidate. The state Senate Republican leader, John Braun is thinking about running. The state Republican Party chairman is thinking about running. They've got some work to do to find a candidate. And Look, I think MGP's kind of idiosyncratic politics seems, seems to be working. I'm not sure that she told you.
- [46:41]
Galen Brueke
Idiosyncratic politics is the way to go.
- [46:43]
Jacob Rubashkin
I'm not sure that she's kind of the model for the rest of the Democratic Party. But the way that she talks. Well, because I think the things that voters in Washington's third Caribbean about are not necessarily the things that everyone else cares about. I mean, she talks a lot about. She, she made a comment in an interview with National Journal at welcome PAC the other week, the, like, moderate PAC that's trying to become like the moderate CPAC in D.C. for Democrats. She said, you know, people aren't asking me about Biden and Harris in my town halls, they're asking me about sea lion predation of salmon. And she went. She talked last year about how she got mad at Kamala Harris because Harris didn't want to listen to her talk about Christmas trees and Christmas tree growing in the district. And she told Ezra Klein that she doesn't give her children toys. She's a big fan. I'm a big believer in dirt and string and sticks. She told Ezra that she didn't like trash collection, that she appreciated that there was no trash collection in her district, district or in her town, so that she had to sit and smell the trash and think about the ecological effects of trash. I think she is well suited to that particular corner of the world. And maybe the lesson is be well suited to your district, in which case, who would disagree? But I think she's got a lot of things going for her in Washington, three that don't necessarily translate, you know, everywhere else.
- [48:11]
Galen Brueke
I think there's a macro lesson to learn from her too, which is that part of the way that she maintains her image as idiosyncratic in, I mean, the district leans a bit Republican is to periodically trash the Democratic Party. Right. Like as I mentioned at the start, one of the worst kept secrets in American politics is that both parties are unpopular. And if you want to be a successful politician in a competitive district, you should position yourself as above either. So the way that you do that is frustrate people's partisan perceptions of you by like, obviously people know she's not a Republican because she is a Democrat, but every so often trash the Democratic Party just to show that you're not one of those unpopular idiots either. You know, that kind of thing. And I think on a macro level, she's got that down.
- [48:55]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah. And she doesn't have to run in a Democratic primary either. Right. So she actually has more latitude to do that because Washington has this all party primary system. So she doesn't have to worry about only ever taking flak from her left flank. She can be a little bit more flat flexible in terms of how she approaches the inter party politics or intra party politics because she doesn't face the same kind of concern that like, you know, if you're a Democrat who has to run in a very liberal Democratic primary, you can't just be trashing Democrats whenever you please.
- [49:25]
Galen Brueke
And to round things out there, the Median income is 90 grand. It is 75% white and 11% Hispanic. So people may be noticing a trend here that there's decent representation of Hispanic or Latino voters in A lot of the these competitive districts, Jacob, you asked me, when I asked you to pick five districts to watch that, I pick the fifth one. And I picked one that is not so competitive as the ones that you mentioned, but with a goal in mind, which is to see just how maybe deep into Republican territory, Democrats are putting up a real fight. You know, obviously resources can go, only go so far. So Democrats will say, or any party will say come a midterm, that they're putting up a fight everywhere. But watch where the money goes and you'll actually learn where they're really putting up a fight. So I chose Iowa's second district, which is currently represented by Republican incumbent Ashley Hinson. She was reelected with 57% of the vote and Trump got 54% of the vote. There you have it, rated as likely Republican. It's 2/3 urban, 1/3 rural. It's quite white, 86% white, 5% black, 4% Hispanic. But I think the question here is are Democrats going to put in the time and money to try to make a place like this, which only leans Republican by like, I don't know, Cook has It rated an R&4 district, right? In a, in an election using Cook against me.
- [50:52]
Jacob Rubashkin
Galen?
- [50:53]
Galen Brueke
Oh, sorry. Inside Elections has it rated as likely Republican, but are they going to source a high quality candidate and are they going to pump money into this district? And whether or not they view it as highly competitive also probably has something to do with how the statewide race in Iowa goes, which is, of course the Senate race. So I'm curious for your thoughts on this one and then I'll talk a little bit more about our friend Joni Ernst.
- [51:23]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah, no, I think that this, this district has a lot of upside for Democrats. Iowa is this kind of interesting, weird state for Democrats where it has gone south for them considerably, but they have these moments of kind of rebound that it looks like, you know, this district in particular, Northeast Iowa, they contested it seriously in 2020. Of course they lost it. They tried hard to win it back in 22. It didn't work and then they gave up on it in 24. This year they've got a guy in the race who's got a pretty compelling profile. His name's Kevin Tekow. He is a former U.S. attorney for the area for Northern Iowa under the Obama administration. He was the commissioner of Public Safety under Governor Tom Vilsack when Vilsack was governor of Iowa in the 2000s. And he is a 27 year Air Force veteran. So he's got a lot of the Credentials that you would like look for for a Democrat running in a more conservative coded district. Whether he can raise the kind of money that he needs to be competitive is an open question. And whether the environment is good enough for Democrats is an open question. But to your point, I think there are two factors that Democrats can look for to be optimistic. The first is those statewide races. So highly competitive governor's race with a strong candidate and state auditor Rob sand who's already raising good money and who has a credible, you know, case to make in terms of his chances in that race. And then, you know, a Senate race that could attract some attention against Joni Ernst. And then the other thing that we've seen is, you know, the special election results in Iowa, to the extent that we want to pull anything out of those two, you know, one state representative, one state senate district that that had specials in the last couple of months, two largest over performances for Democrats essentially of any special elections this cycle. So some good news for Democrats in Iowa may be a sign that like lower propensity or higher propensity, voters in Iowa are like much more favorable to Democrats. And in a midterm environment, maybe those people will come out in greater droves and make this race competitive.
- [53:29]
Galen Brueke
Jacob, have you heard that we're all going to die?
- [53:33]
Jacob Rubashkin
I have heard that. I'm not sure if I believe it yet. I want to do some more of my own research, but I, I don't.
- [53:43]
Galen Brueke
Know if it's going to make it into the cold open. But before we started recording, we were talking about Joni Erst's quote unquote gaffe at a town hall when somebody said in response to medic potential Medicaid cuts that people are going to die. And she was like, we're all going to die in Galen's book of gaffes. That doesn't. I don't think that counts, honestly. We are all going to die. I get that people think she was being mean about people dying because of Medicaid cuts, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But I think in the broad range of what counts as a gaffe, it got a lot of media attention, maybe because people just wanted to talk about something. I don't think that that is going to have much bearing at all on the race in 2026.
- [54:22]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah, I mean, look, I think that anything that draws attention to her and pushes a candidate like J.D. scolton into the race is not necessarily good news.
- [54:31]
Galen Brueke
I won't say pushes a candidate into the race or gives them an opportunity to jump into a race that they already planned on running in.
- [54:37]
Jacob Rubashkin
Yeah, I think that it certainly moved his timetable up. I don't know. We may or may not be interviewing him later today and I can ask him about this. But you know, I think certainly for a guy who as recently as a couple weeks ago said he was 50, 50 about it for him to jump in, you know, but I think the larger point is like, I don't think this was a good move by Joni Ernst. I don't think this necessarily helped her. I don't think it's a race ending gaffe and I don't think there's such a thing as a race.
- [55:05]
Galen Brueke
It was her Vanessa Hudgens moment. And you know, Vanessa Hudgens is still.
- [55:08]
Jacob Rubashkin
Doing just fine, though she's not the senator from Iowa. Right.
- [55:12]
Galen Brueke
Although Vanessa, if you're listening, I don't.
- [55:14]
Jacob Rubashkin
Know if Vanessa Hudgens could win an Iowa Senate race. But look, I don't think there's such a thing as a race ending gaffe. 17 months out from election day in 2025 or 2026. I don't think we're in that universe of politics anymore. But I think that, you know, if Democrats are able to turn that into kind of an expression of callousness and lack of humanity and you know, tie it into the larger health care issue which has been so favorable to them over the last six, seven years, I don't necessarily think it's a dude. I, but I agree. I don't think that it, it doesn't make her the underdog. It doesn't automatically make that like a toss up race for Democrats.
- [55:56]
Galen Brueke
Yeah, I think one of the ratings agencies moved. The ratings agencies, I'm talking about it as if it's one of the elections.
- [56:03]
Jacob Rubashkin
Ratings houses moved, downgraded her chances from triple A to double A.
- [56:08]
Galen Brueke
Exactly. They're like, don't borrow money from Joni Ernst. No, they or don't let Joni Ernst borrow money from you. I guess be more more the point they moved it to a toss up, I think after that gaffe. And that feels like I don't know who I'm talking about. I just know that one of them did it. That seems like an overreaction in my book, but maybe I just have thicker skin than these guys in politics. Who knows? Although I don't think that's the case.
- [56:34]
Jacob Rubashkin
I think Iowa is a sleepy. Iowa is a sleeper choice for race that could become competitive on the Senate map. I think I, there's just as much.
- [56:45]
Galen Brueke
Reason to say I agree on that.
- [56:47]
Jacob Rubashkin
Like Texas or Florida or Ohio or any of these other states. Like, especially if it's going to be a good year for Democrats, they're going to need a place to put all that money they're going to raise. And I think Iowa is, is has a compelling case to make and that.
- [57:01]
Galen Brueke
Is exactly why I chose it as my race to watch for 2026. Thank you for helping me make the case, Jacob. We're going to leave it there for today. Thank you so much for joining me. Thanks. My name is Galen Druk. I'm in the early days of getting this podcast off the ground and I appreciate your support in any way possible. Subscribe to GD Politics wherever you get your podcast and you would be so kind to rate and review us. Also maybe even tell a friend about the podcast. Also importantly, subscribe to the substack@gdpolitics.com there you'll get updates on what we're doing extras and you can support this project directly. Thanks for listening and we will see you soon.